Prediction contest vs real gambling

[dannyd0g]

Looking at the season long handicap results from last year, I was just wondering what exactly the 0.429 etc figures mean.

Is this the percentage of match results predicted correctly ?

If that is the case, then it doesnt say much for getting into real gambling, as even the top predictor would loose out were he to put real money on his predictions.

Before I noticed this, it always seemed, at first glance, that most people were getting about 3/4 of their predictions correct. On that basis I was thinking it would be worth looking into some spread betting as 75% success wouldnt be bad.

[Semih_Sayginer]

would all depend on the prices for each player in each match...

[The Statman]

Looking at the season long handicap results from last year, I was just wondering what exactly the 0.429 etc figures mean.

Is this the percentage of match results predicted correctly ?

No it isn't. It is the number of points scored divided by the number of points available in all the matches. Since most matches are worth 2 points, the success rate is, if you like, approaching double that. A whole swathe of the Grand Prix matches, because they were shorter, were only worth one point so you certainly cannot double the figure either.

In short, the figures shown cannot be associated with anything other than the prediction contests. Otherwise I would be a rich man!

As the scoring is 2 points for correct score, 1 for correct winner with wrong score, a large number of people correctly predicting, say, a 5-3 win would go some way to offsetting a surprise result in which few people scored at all.

The 1½ points for score one frame adrift, for longer matches, further complicates the comparison.

[Semih_Sayginer]

No it isn't. It is the number of points scored divided by the number of points available in all the matches. Since most matches are worth 2 points, the success rate is, if you like, approaching double that. A whole swathe of the Grand Prix matches, because they were shorter, were only worth one point so you certainly cannot double the figure either.

In short, the figures shown cannot be associated with anything other than the prediction contests. Otherwise I would be a rich man!

As the scoring is 2 points for correct score, 1 for correct winner with wrong score, a large number of people correctly predicting, say, a 5-3 win would go some way to offsetting a surprise result in which few people scored at all.

The 1½ points for score one frame adrift, for longer matches, further complicates the comparison.

even if it was, the prices for each match arent always the same, so it would all depend on the prices the bookmakers had each player at, in every match

[archicrooks]

speaking as a person who over the years has probably done better with my small snooker bets than any other sport !!!

for people wanting to try to "beat the bookie"

try BET FRED in the bet fred snooker league as there they offer a bet
on a match where if you do say Hendry to win and the match is drawn your stake is refunded

you wont get rich quick with small stakes but if you "double up" and you get 4in a row in you will probably have the odds of between 6-1 and 8-1 !!

and considering you are getting 2 out the 3 results its a fair chance !!

[dannyd0g]

Thanks for the replies guys. So using last seasons handicap figures and roughly speaking, many people are predicting between 50-60% of winners correctly ? If you then leave out the most unpredictable players such as Ronnie (always dreadfully poor odds on him winning anyway) the chances of a successfull bet arent looking too bad.

Thanks Semih for highlighting the importance of the prices and odds for each match as this would make an important difference. So rather than try to pick all winners of all first round matches for example regardless of the prices, in the hope if getting 2/3 of them correct, it would be better to limit it to the matches with a good price on your predicted winner.

I would imagine you could get good prices on the opponents of Hendry and Ding to win their matches. The bookies dont seem to be factoring in the loss of form these guys are suffering, as they still make them among the favourites for tournaments, when their actual performances arent meriting that by any means.

[Semih_Sayginer]

indeed danny

when the bookies price up a single match with NO DRAW, they tend to make the overround about 8-10%, depending on bookmakers.

it can be higher and lower than that.

if a match, in their opinion is evenly matched, you will find both at 5/6.

now, naturally evens the pair would be level, but (and remember its only when no draw available) to factor in the overround for them to make profit, the prices are reduced....

this is done also when matches arent "evenly matched" but prices are still worked out at an overround for predicted profit...