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HOORAY - it is that time of the year. You know the time when you find yourself struggling to contribute to a discussion that isn't snooker related, the time when you search your home for a lucky vantage point to watch your favourite, or bite your finger nails down to their roots.
Yes the world snooker championships are upon us. 17 days of highs, lows, frustration and relief as we all tune in to support our favourite.
Twelve months ago Ronnie O'Sullivan was celebrating his third world title after overpowering a drained Alister Carter in a trunkated final. Ronnie now returns, with another target to chase; and that is to retain the title at The Crucible. History has shown that the reigning champion is usually dumped out throught the championships, because the title is such a mantle to carry. In fact since the tournament moved to the Crucible in 1977 only two men have retained the title. They of course are Steve Davis and Stephen Hendry. All told it is an exclusive club. Can O'Sullivan join it, well the top half of the draw has quite a few obstacles that he will have to overcome if he is to do so.
Ronnie's opener is against Stuart Bingham. Stuart is the identikit dangerous floater. And it would be very foolish to underestimate Stuart at the Crucible- Stuart has very positive memories of the Steel City. Remember it was nine years ago that he sent reigning champion Stephen Hendry home early after beating the Scotsman in the first round of the 2000 event.
So Stuart certainly has the tools to beat Ronnie. Will he- well it depends of what frame of mind Ronnie is in. Ronnie has always reminded me of Steffi Graf- an unusual likeness. But there are plenty of parallels between Ronnie and the legendary German tennis player. Just as Steffi was unplayable if her mind was clear and she was feeling happy so the same applies to Ronnie. If Steffi's mind was elsewhere rather than on the match in hand she was beatable, and I think that is true of Ronnie.
If Ronnie does survive what will be a tough encounter he will then have to face one of Mark Allen or Martin Gould. Allen's form this season has been disappointing. Gould by contrast is making strides up the rankings. It was the Middlesex man who defeated Hendry in the first round of the Welsh Open- and in qualifying for the Crucible ended the hopes of Matthew Stevens. For Mark Martin Gould is a tough opponent, if you are looking for a seed to fall in the first round Mark Allen could be the man
But if Ronnie doesn't win the title- then who will. The obvious candidate is John Higgins. The two times champion is the best all round match player in the game. And he faces Nottingham's Michael Holt in the first round. Holt is a strong potter of the ball but the question mark is against his temperament. That was shown in graphic detail in 2005 when in the second round he led Steve Davis 8-2 only to succumb 13-10 to the former champion. On paper Higgins should be too canny for Michael but a sterner test could await the Scotsman in round two when Jamie Cope or Joe Perry would lie in wait. This match will have an impact on the rankings whatever the result- because if Jamie were to win he would take Joe's place in the top 16. Jamie's is one of the brightest stars in the game, but what he must guard against is choosing valour ahead of discretion. Going for the low percentage shots has cost Jamie a few matches. And that is something he must guard against. Beating Joe Perry is not a gimme of a match, Joe has the experience to subdue the Staffordshire man while Jamie will have to add patience to his approach if he is to progress.
Should Higgins negotiate his way to the quarter finals then he could find himself squaring off against Mark Selby in the quarter finals. What a game that could be. Both John and Mark have a game suited to the longer match format. John will not need any reminding of the last time he faced Mark at the Crucible, when in the 2007 final Mark gave John a massive fright when he came from 12-4 down only to lose 18-15.
But before any of that can be contemplated Mark has to face Ricky Walden. And that is a draw Mark will not have wanted- Walden already has a title to his name this season with victory in the Shanghai Masters, and he'll feel confident of upsetting Mark.
Down in the bottom half of the draw lies Shaun Murphy. The UK Open champion would love to add another world title to the one he claimed as a qualifier in 2005. His early taster is against Andrew Higginson. Higginson, who is making his debut at the Crucible is a proven match player. He made the final of the Welsh Open in 2007 before losing to Neil Robertson. But Shaun Murphy at the Crucible is a very tough man to beat. And with Murphy's form and confidence returning it could be an early exit for Andrew, who I don't think has the game to upset a highly ranked player over 19 frames.
Should Murphy progress then he may well find himself tested against one of Marco Fu and Joe Swail. The two Crucible specialists are both in form but Swail has the game to upset Marco, especially since the return of the most crucial weapon of any snooker player- namely his confidence. While Marco would probably have picked someone else rather than Joe to face in the first round he is just as capable of winning this match as Joe is. It has 10-9 written all over it and could be a classic.
And it is the top half of the bottom half of the draw that could see humdinger of a game between two friends. Former champion Stephen Hendry has found himself paired against Mark Williams. Williams has had a solid season and has ensured himself a return to the top 16. Hendry though is far from certain to stay there. Their season's couldn't be more similar- and yet so different. Both consistent, though in Stephen's case it has been in losing in the first round. But I expect Stephen's pride to kick in at Sheffield against the laid back Welshman. Who will win, I'm not sure, but it will go to the final frame.
But whoever progresses between Hendry and Williams will have to face one of the Chinese duo. Ding Junhui and Liang Wenbo come face to face- and their rankings could be about to go in opposite directions. If Liang wins he will almost certainly end Ding's stint in the top sixteen. Ding has had a disappointing season and is struggling for confidence. Yet it would be foolish to write off Ding's chances of beating Wenbo. But Liang will be better equipped to handle the Crucible this time-after learning a painful lesson at the hands of O'Sullivan during a mauling in the second session of their second round match last year- therefore an upset is perfectly possible.
This year marks my first visit to the Crucible. It also marks the 30th anniversary of Steve Davis's debut at the Sheffield venue. Back in 1979 a 21 year old Davis lost a close first round encounter to Dennis Taylor. Now 51 Steve has qualified again, just as he did in 1979. To to do so he had to pull a rabbit from the hat in qualifying, when he came from 5-0 down to defeat Lee Spick 10-8. It has earned Steve a crack at Neil Robertson. The Australian will not relish facing Steve who has beaten Neil this year- albeit over nine frames. It is an interesting contrast, between Neil's smooth potting style and Steve's tactical nous. It is another match that could go all the way- and I am not prepared to risk a bar of chocolate let alone any money on this match.
One man who is probably itching for a return to Sheffield is Alister Carter. of course beaten in the final last year by O'Sullivan. Alister will head to the Crucible in confident mood having secured the Welsh Open title in Newport. The question is can he stay mentally fresh. If yes then he has a great chance of making the semi finals. If the exertions of Newport and Beijjing have taken it out of him then opponant Gerard Greene might just surprise him. Gerard qualified by beating former champion Ken Doherty- which put the tin lid on Ken's miserable season. There are no easy games in the last 32 and while I expect Alister to win I do feel that Gerard will push him.
They say that random draws have a sense of humour- well if that is the case then they also have the element of the perverse. Stephen Maguire finds himself up against Jamie Burnett- again. There is no need to go into the details of what happened at the UK Open. But Jamie deserves full credit for maintaining his concentration and playing strong and confident snooker- that was good enough to dispose of durable Irishman Fergal O'Brien in qualifying. Does Stephen Maguire have a chance of claiming the title. I have my doubts. There have been occasions, when put under pressure Maguire's confidence has wavered and he has played the wrong shot, and if Jamie can put him under enough pressure then he may well upset the second seed..
Four other men, desperate for a good run at The Crucible also appear in the draw. Peter Ebdon and Mark King. Peter- who claimed the title in 2004 has endured a season he would rather forget. Not once has he made a quarter final. However opponant Nigel Bond is the sort of player he enjoys facing. It'll be a war of attrition with the Derbyshire veteran, and neither player will give anything away. The difference could be Peter's superior scoring ability, which might carry the day. Should Peter beat Nigel the Dubai based player would have a sporting chance of reaching the quarter finals, where he could run into O'Sullivan.
Mark King finds himself in the same situation. Barring a run to the semi finals Mark is likely to drop out of thr top 16 after a bad season. His first round opponant is Rory McLeod. It is a winnable match for Mark, having said that Rory, who is coach to the Qatar national team will have the same viewpoint.
Graeme Dott comes to Sheffield with no form to speak of. In what has been an injury hit season for the Scotsman he is also facing relegation from the top sixteen. Barry Hawkins is his first round opponant, and Hawkins needed all his experience to subdue the challenge of Daniel Wells in qualifying. The fact that he is match tight could be bad news for Dott who will start second favourite against Hawkins.
Yet snooker does have it's comeback stories to speak of- and that is Stephen Lee. After dropping out of the top sixteen two years ago the Wiltshire professional has been inching his way back up the rankings. Lee has one of the best cue actions in the game, and also is a fluent breakbuilder. That was proven in his victory against Judd Trump in qualifying- and Welshman Ryan Day will not relish facing Lee in the opening round- especially with the Welshman off form and struggling for results.
To win in Sheffield takes more than being a great breakbuilder- it involves tactical nous, patience and knowing when to go for your shots and when to show discretion. It is as much about mental fitness as potting prowess. Yet it cannot be emphasised enough that a little bit of luck does play a part in deciding who will take the title.
So as we gear up for the seventeen days of tension and drama all that remains for me to do is to tip a winner. My idea of a champion is John Higgins with Shaun Murphy a close runner up. But the Crucible has a habit of throwing up surprises. Remember the number 30. It was 30 years ago that a qualifier called Terry Griffiths claimed the title as 150/1 outsider- and confounded the experts in the process. Could lightening strike again- well don't rule it out. One tiny piece of advice though- fasten your seatbelts these seventeen days are a bumpy ride.
Suzy Jardine
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