Define Low Percentage

[thelongbomber]

We are all taught at some point in our playing career to avoid the "low percentage" shot, but how exactly do you define it?

Here is my theory on what low percentage means:

1. A shot that you haven't practiced
2. A hard shot you should not attempt based on the current frame score (like breaking out the black when the opponent is 50 behind)
3. A thin cut at long distance (which seems to be difficult for everyone I have seen)

Does the low percentage shot change over the course of a frame or match? Should it reflect your current state of mind? Should you be like John Higgins and totally disciplined to avoid certain shots during a match? What's your take on low percentage?

[Souwester]

I would define a low percentage shot as one that has a small chance of achieving the desired result.

So yes, that could be your number 1 and number 3, but could equally be a long pot, a double, any kind of really think cut... It will all depend on your competence at certain types of shot: just how many times out of 10 will you actually get the right result from that shot? Low percentage is somewhat subjective, for some might be 3 times out of ten, for others who set themselves higher targets it might be 7 out of 10.

[firefrets]

A low percentage shot is a shot that your expected success rate would be low.

If you take a shot on that you would expect to get 9 times out of 10, then thaty would be 'high' percentage.

If you think you would only get a shot 2 times out of 10, then that's 'low' percentage, and you would be advised to consider your options.

Of course, it all depends on the circumstances of the shot.

If I have match ball, and it is hard to get it safe, (such as a black ball fight) I might often risk a low percentage pot if I can create distance between the 2 balls should it miss.

If the saftey is easy, and the percentage of potting is low, I'll go for the saftey and wait for a better opportunity.

Percentages don't always work though, so decide if a shot might be the only chance you'll get, and slam it in, if yoiur answer is yes. Better to lose to a missed pot than a bad saftey.

[thelongbomber]

If I have match ball, and it is hard to get it safe, (such as a black ball fight) I might often risk a low percentage pot if I can create distance between the 2 balls should it miss.

Percentages don't always work though, so decide if a shot might be the only chance you'll get, and slam it in, if yoiur answer is yes. Better to lose to a missed pot than a bad saftey.

Thanks for the input FF. When I'm faced with tough shots, I often will go for the pot irrespective of safety. I have a theory that any focus or attention on negative outcomes of a shot just distract you from the task at hand: a positive outcome.

I'm a pretty optimistic player and my mindset is usually on making the shot and not on what will happen if I miss. I never play game balls with the idea that I should neutralize the cue ball in case I miss.

[thelongbomber]

I have gained the nickname "potter from hell" because I will take on shots and not play two way. I suppose because my opponents are not century runners that I can gamble and take on a shot leaving everything. I have enough confidence in my total potting and safety game that I can recover from being behind. If I play someone with skill and ability, I usually end up winning just on positive attitude, perserverance, and not changing my game (to be more negative) and my track record indicates that "taking on the shot" is the best policy for me, even if it's low percentage.

I suppose I try and form the same attitudes about shots as Stephen Hendry did in his prime: if the safety is tough, he will take the pot on.

[andy carson]

i would go with taking a shot of lower chance of the shot coming off and the high risk of leaving the table wide open or an easy start to build on something making you lose the frame over playing for an easier smaller break on or playing a safety

[firefrets]

Being able to play under pressure takes a lot of experience.

When under pressure, an easy ball can seem very difficult, and a difficult ball can look impossible.

Working out your chances of success under pressure is totally different to doing it in the club on a Saturday afternoon.

One shot can often be the difference between thousands of pounds, or silverware v the bus home.

Under pressure, or under the influence of a good pint, never stop 'hitting' the ball, and 'following through'.

That's the first thing that suffers when a player is under pressure.

The same guys who brag about hitting big breaks are often the same guys who go out in the first round because when they needed to play the right shot, didn't.

[thelongbomber]

Being able to play under pressure takes a lot of experience.

When under pressure, an easy ball can seem very difficult, and a difficult ball can look impossible.

Working out your chances of success under pressure is totally different to doing it in the club on a Saturday afternoon.

Great information FF. Given this information, it seems that practice, understanding your stroke, and time on the table by yourself or with a coach builds the inner confidence in your game that you need. The more confident you are in your ability, the better you can cope with a pressure shot and make it.

[ADR147]

low % shots win frames though - herein lies the dilema! if you get it you know you are set up, but if you miss it you will lose, i love that buzz myself!

[Citrus138]

It's the risk/reward conundrum.

If the risk is great and the reward is small, then the % is low.

If the risk is small and the reward is great, the the % is high.

How you apply that to certain shot and situations during a match is down experience and trial and error.

The game can be a bitch!!!

[thelongbomber]

It's the risk/reward conundrum.

If the risk is great and the reward is small, then the % is low.

If the risk is small and the reward is great, the the % is high.

How you apply that to certain shot and situations during a match is down experience and trial and error.

The game can be a bitch!!!

Isn't reward the future promise of something that might happen? Reward in a card game is immediate and finite but in snooker you might not get the reward you so hoped for (a frame winning break or better). Is it possible to calculate future reward possibility?

Let's say your opponent breaks and leaves a long low % red on. If the shot is low percentage, a few things need to be true for the shot to be worthwhile:

1. You will make the red
2. You will make a significant break as a result
3. You can get out of the trap (assuming there is one) and play safe after
4. You can get out of the trap and play into a safe zone on the table (near baulk)
5. Based on your past experience, you understand your potential for making a 50+ break without losing table control when you leave it.

That long red sure looks enticing, is a great deal of fun and satisfaction to pot, but in the end isn't worthwhile if the reward isn't likely to take place. If you don't make 70+ breaks regularly and are playing someone that does, your shot choices should be adjusted accordingly. You can't take on low percentage shots as a 20+ break player in the same manner as a century runner can.

[firefrets]

Isn't reward the future promise of something that might happen? Reward in a card game is immediate and finite but in snooker you might not get the reward you so hoped for (a frame winning break or better). Is it possible to calculate future reward possibility?

Let's say your opponent breaks and leaves a long low % red on. If the shot is low percentage, a few things need to be true for the shot to be worthwhile:

1. You will make the red
2. You will make a significant break as a result
3. You can get out of the trap (assuming there is one) and play safe after
4. You can get out of the trap and play into a safe zone on the table (near baulk)
5. Based on your past experience, you understand your potential for making a 50+ break without losing table control when you leave it.

That long red sure looks enticing, is a great deal of fun and satisfaction to pot, but in the end isn't worthwhile if the reward isn't likely to take place. If you don't make 70+ breaks regularly and are playing someone that does, your shot choices should be adjusted accordingly. You can't take on low percentage shots as a 20+ break player in the same manner as a century runner can.

Dear Bomber.
I hope you don't mind me cutting in here, as although other folks can answer your main question, I feel it is vital that we discuss your final point, as this my friend is where a huge amount of players come unstuck psychologically.

When you are at the table, noone, regardless of who they are, can do anything to prevent you from running out and winning the frame. The only person, and if I may do so with good intent, that can get in your way, is you, and your negative thinking.

It is important to weigh up every shot the same, and judge each shot on it's own merits. Never turn down the correct shot to play, just because your opponent is better than you.

If he was better than you he would still be at the table, and you would be in your chair. As it is, it is 'you' that are back at the table, because your opponent has failed to win the frame at his last visit.

Now I understand that playing your friend in a similar situation, means that if you miss, the consequences might not be as severe, as if you were playing Stephen Hendry, but the correct shot is the correct shot, and if you decide against a shot, it should be that deciding against it is the correct course of action, and not, because you were forced to play defensive through fear of your opponent.

NEVER FEAR YOUR OPPONENT, especially when he or she isn't at the table. When you're at the table, let them fear you.

Play the correct shot, and play it with conviction.

[thelongbomber]

Excellent feedback FF. Thanks for bringing my demon out from hiding. I never thought of myself being the one to fear at the table and my opponent (regardless of who they are) to be dealing with their own mental demons as well. I have a generally positive attitude and take shots on but low self-belief is something I could work on for sure. Perhaps the belief that "if you are older and have played longer than me, you must be better than me" is a belief based on false assumptions that actually isn't true. Maybe I do have what it takes.

Your input is welcome and appreciated. Thanks FF!

[firefrets]

Dear Bomber.

When you are at the table, noone, regardless of who they are, can do anything to prevent you from running out and winning the frame. The only person, and if I may do so with good intent, that can get in your way, is you, and your negative thinking.

.

Obviously when I write You, or 'you're', I'm referring to 'anyone' that reads it, and not anyone in particular.

Thanks.

[Citrus138]

Dear Bomber.
I hope you don't mind me cutting in here, as although other folks can answer your main question, I feel it is vital that we discuss your final point, as this my friend is where a huge amount of players come unstuck psychologically.

When you are at the table, noone, regardless of who they are, can do anything to prevent you from running out and winning the frame. The only person, and if I may do so with good intent, that can get in your way, is you, and your negative thinking.

It is important to weigh up every shot the same, and judge each shot on it's own merits. Never turn down the correct shot to play, just because your opponent is better than you.

If he was better than you he would still be at the table, and you would be in your chair. As it is, it is 'you' that are back at the table, because your opponent has failed to win the frame at his last visit.

Now I understand that playing your friend in a similar situation, means that if you miss, the consequences might not be as severe, as if you were playing Stephen Hendry, but the correct shot is the correct shot, and if you decide against a shot, it should be that deciding against it is the correct course of action, and not, because you were forced to play defensive through fear of your opponent.

NEVER FEAR YOUR OPPONENT, especially when he or she isn't at the table. When you're at the table, let them fear you.

Play the correct shot, and play it with conviction.

Couldn't agree more with the fear thing. The game is so much about the phycological demons that you have to control, as in most, if not all sports.
If you're over a shot and that little voice inside your head is saying 'don't miss, don't miss' the chances of you missing are increased. However, if you can clear your mind of negativity, and even control that little voice to say 'I'm going to pot this, I'm going to win' then you're well on you're way.

However, I would say that if someone that was a 20 break player was up against someone much better than them, they would need to Taylor their shot selection to maximise their chances of winning the frame. Tactics.
There's little point in slamming the blue in, smashing the reds everywhere if the percentage of them making a frame winning break is minimal. Better to keep their side of the scoreboard ticking over with little red/colour/safety combo's, than playing an open frame that plays right into the hands of the better opponent.
If you can frustrate them, then their game will in all likelyhood will deteriorate, leading in turn to them taking on more risks to try and regain control of the frame.

Purely my opinion.