Define Low Percentage

[magicman]

thelongbomber:

We are all taught at some point in our playing career to avoid the "low percentage" shot, but how exactly do you define it?

Here is my theory on what low percentage means:

1. A shot that you haven't practiced
2. A hard shot you should not attempt based on the current frame score (like breaking out the black when the opponent is 50 behind)
3. A thin cut at long distance (which seems to be difficult for everyone I have seen)

and

I'm a pretty optimistic player and my mindset is usually on making the shot and not on what will happen if I miss. I never play game balls with the idea that I should neutralize the cue ball in case I miss.


As others have said, the low percentage shot can be judged on how often out of ten you can execute it successfully. Citrus138 is bang on about risk/reward

The example given to illustrate No 2 above is just a poor 'choice' of shot.

The latter quote above needs commenting on. Mark Williams is the best player imo at picking out potential pots while leaving nothing for his opponent should he miss. This should be integral to any player wishing to improve. Firefrets is right when he talks of the correct shot being the correct shot, regardless, and once you have chosen the 'right' shot play it with conviction. One does not preclude the other.

[pottingpinks]

If its a shot to nothing where the cue ball will likely end up safe, no harm in going for a 1 out of 10 shot but if its going to leave easy balls on no point in taking it on.

My own thinking would be where I am leaving easy balls should I miss I would need to be potting it at least 6 out of 10 and maybe more than that really but perhaps I do get over-cautious in matches sometimes.

But only yourself can judge that in your head, you may be feeling confident or edgy so it can be different on different days.

[andy carson]

If its a shot to nothing where the cue ball will likely end up safe, no harm in going for a 1 out of 10 shot but if its going to leave easy balls on no point in taking it on.

My own thinking would be where I am leaving easy balls should I miss I would need to be potting it at least 6 out of 10 and maybe more than that really but perhaps I do get over-cautious in matches sometimes.

But only yourself can judge that in your head, you may be feeling confident or edgy so it can be different on different days.

which you would have already found as a low risk shot in looking at the tables options wouldnt you? rather than play the thin cut the otherside to leave the black and a clearance but another ball on should you miss

[firefrets]

Couldn't agree more with the fear thing. The game is so much about the phycological demons that you have to control, as in most, if not all sports.
If you're over a shot and that little voice inside your head is saying 'don't miss, don't miss' the chances of you missing are increased. However, if you can clear your mind of negativity, and even control that little voice to say 'I'm going to pot this, I'm going to win' then you're well on you're way.

However, I would say that if someone that was a 20 break player was up against someone much better than them, they would need to Taylor their shot selection to maximise their chances of winning the frame. Tactics.
There's little point in slamming the blue in, smashing the reds everywhere if the percentage of them making a frame winning break is minimal. Better to keep their side of the scoreboard ticking over with little red/colour/safety combo's, than playing an open frame that plays right into the hands of the better opponent.
If you can frustrate them, then their game will in all likelyhood will deteriorate, leading in turn to them taking on more risks to try and regain control of the frame.

Purely my opinion.

Nothing wrong with your line of thinking.

I agree with shot selection, hence why I advocated going for the 'correct' shot.

If going in to the pack off the blue is the 'correct shot', then that's the correct shot.

I think it's all part of the game in learning exactly what the correct shot is. Tactics are all well and good, but you still need to make the best use of any chance you get.

We could write a whole documentary on the positives and negatives of match play, involving 2 unequal taklents, but I think the underlying factor should be common sense, and confidence, in equal measures.

[andy carson]

Nothing wrong with your line of thinking.

I agree with shot selection, hence why I advocated going for the 'correct' shot.

If going in to the pack off the blue is the 'correct shot', then that's the correct shot.

I think it's all part of the game in learning exactly what the correct shot is. Tactics are all well and good, but you still need to make the best use of any chance you get.

We could write a whole documentary on the positives and negatives of match play, involving 2 unequal taklents, but I think the underlying factor should be common sense, and confidence, in equal measures.

I would certainly add into that knowing and keeping to your own ability and not trying in match play scenario anything too difficult for your standard of play.

[thelongbomber]

Mark Williams is the best player imo at picking out potential pots while leaving nothing for his opponent should he miss.

Absolutely! He can pick out shots and control the cue ball incredibly well.

[Citrus138]

I would certainly add into that knowing and keeping to your own ability and not trying in match play scenario anything too difficult for your standard of play.

That's the way I see it.

By all means play the 'correct' shot when practising. But why risk losing a match, just for the sake of playing the text book shot?

[thelongbomber]

Seems there are two camps here

Camp 1 - Play the right shot

Members of this camp say

1. Play the right shot according to what can provide a frame winning break, regardless of your opponent's abilities. If you are at the table, the opponent has no control
2. Low percentage can be defined as a low value shot based on risk/reward calculations

Camp 2 - Play within your own abilities

Members of this camp say

1. What might be low percentage for someone else might be high percentage for you
2. Low percentage are shots you haven't practiced yet
3. Play according to the score
4. Don't open the balls if there is a risk you can't win the frame from that shot

It seems nobody is one camp or another all the time. Snooker is certainly a game of how you feel at the moment and sometimes, when you are in the zone, a shot seems right even though in other circumstances it might not be. Alternately, if you don't play the "right shot" then how are you going to progress and improve?

Interesting discussion here.

Thanks for the input!!

[firefrets]

That's the way I see it.

By all means play the 'correct' shot when practising. But why risk losing a match, just for the sake of playing the text book shot?

Playing the correct shot has nothing to do with textbook. It's to do with playing the 'correct' shot. Don't mix the two up. Deciding on what is correct comes from weighing up all your options and your risks, and finding a solution.

[firefrets]

Seems there are two camps here

Camp 1 - Play the right shot

Members of this camp say

1. Play the right shot according to what can provide a frame winning break, regardless of your opponent's abilities. If you are at the table, the opponent has no control
2. Low percentage can be defined as a low value shot based on risk/reward calculations

Camp 2 - Play within your own abilities

Members of this camp say

1. What might be low percentage for someone else might be high percentage for you
2. Low percentage are shots you haven't practiced yet
3. Play according to the score
4. Don't open the balls if there is a risk you can't win the frame from that shot

It seems nobody is one camp or another all the time. Snooker is certainly a game of how you feel at the moment and sometimes, when you are in the zone, a shot seems right even though in other circumstances it might not be. Alternately, if you don't play the "right shot" then how are you going to progress and improve?

Interesting discussion here.

Thanks for the input!!

Bomber, I think people are confusing playing what is considered the 'correct' shot, with 'presumed' to be the correct shot because of a particular scenario, and that 'isn't what playing the correct shot means.

Playing the correct shot means that after consideration, you choose the best shot possible for the given situation, and then go for it with full conviction.

If you go for a shot half heartedly, or with any doubt, your success rate diminishes. There is a lot of psychology involved with snooker, and winning the mental battles with yourself is often harder than beating your opponent.

You don't play your opponent, but the table. It's not boxing. Your opponent has to wait until you miss, or play safe. Once you start to play your opponent, your inhibitions come into play, and your confidence is affected.

At the same time, if your opponent is poor, you might take your foot off the gas, or take extra risks. This is bad practise, because as much as you don't play your opponent because they are strong, you also don't do it if they are weak. Don't do it full stop.

You play 'the correct shot' regardless of who you are playing.

I'm not sure I agree with your camp descriptions, as it's not as black and white really.

A low percentage shot is a shot that you have a low percentage of getting.

Firefrets camp says:

Play your own game, not your opponents.
If you need to play safe, it should be because it's the correct shot, and not because you're playing Steve Davis. If you need to pot, it should be because you fancy getting it, and not because your opponent is crap, and won't score much if you miss. Nothing is black and white. Every single shot has variations, and every shot could be scrutinized and debated. You have to use your gut feeling in most cases. If you think you're going to miss, you probably will. Use common sense as much as possible, but most of all, it's not life and death, but just a game, so enjoy it.

[Citrus138]

Bomber, I think people are confusing playing what is considered the 'correct' shot, with 'presumed' to be the correct shot because of a particular scenario, and that 'isn't what playing the correct shot means.

Playing the correct shot means that after consideration, you choose the best shot possible for the given situation, and then go for it with full conviction.

If you go for a shot half heartedly, or with any doubt, your success rate diminishes. There is a lot of psychology involved with snooker, and winning the mental battles with yourself is often harder than beating your opponent.

You don't play your opponent, but the table. It's not boxing. Your opponent has to wait until you miss, or play safe. Once you start to play your opponent, your inhibitions come into play, and your confidence is affected.

At the same time, if your opponent is poor, you might take your foot off the gas, or take extra risks. This is bad practise, because as much as you don't play your opponent because they are strong, you also don't do it if they are weak. Don't do it full stop.

You play 'the correct shot' regardless of who you are playing.

I'm not sure I agree with your camp descriptions, as it's not as black and white really.

A low percentage shot is a shot that you have a low percentage of getting.

Firefrets camp says:

Play your own game, not your opponents.
If you need to play safe, it should be because it's the correct shot, and not because you're playing Steve Davis. If you need to pot, it should be because you fancy getting it, and not because your opponent is crap, and won't score much if you miss. Nothing is black and white. Every single shot has variations, and every shot could be scrutinized and debated. You have to use your gut feeling in most cases. If you think you're going to miss, you probably will. Use common sense as much as possible, but most of all, it's not life and death, but just a game, so enjoy it.

I agree. The term 'correct shot' can construed the wrong way quite easily.

The 'correct shot' is in a constant state of flux depending on...

The standard of the player
His/her ability to make the shot
The score situation in the frame

[thelongbomber]

Yesterday, I tried an approach in a match with my m8 more inline with the comments in this thread. I turned down shots that didn't have any clear benefit even though I felt confident I could make them 5 out of 10. I tried to calculate risk/reward on low percentage shots and be more careful about what kind of break I was capable of. All in all, I played more conservatively than I normally would - going for everything. There was more safety play and I ended up in tricky situations more often. My opponent is a great potter and he ended up playing better than me. In the end, I lost the match 4/3.

I'm going to continue trying to be more aware of low percentage shots when they come up and try harder to play the right shot but I'm not entirely sure I'm ready to abandon my theory on match success quite yet: if the low percentage pot is on and you can see some benefit even if its marginal, go for it with full and total conviction. If you play a good player, a bit more caution and preparation is suggested, but in the end, play the game, not the player.