Shot selection?

[ace man]

All players strive to play the table, and not the opponent...but...this rarely works and is simply not in human nature. We are not machines. Whether we like to admit it or not, it matters very much who's sitting in the chair...pro game, amateur, club...doesn't matter.

Why do you think so many pro players miss very makeable frame balls or key balls against John Higgins for example? He didn't twist their elbows, he was just sitting in the chair! You see, even the very best highly trained professionals are clearly affected by the opponent in their mind, so why should we expect not to be?

[nrage]

Maybe I'm thinking about it too much, but just feel that playing a good safety can in turn cost you the match.

Playing safe is a gamble and there is always a chance your opponent can win following one. But, that doesn't mean that playing safe wasn't the 'right' choice, all it means is that your opponent managed to win despite the safety.

Would it have been better to attempt the pot, that depends on how likely you are to win now, how likely your opponent is to win on their next shot and how likely you are to win on the following shot. You want to maximise your chances, while minimising theirs.

We can calculate it using compound probability and a few assumptions..
* Assume you're faced with a 1/2 pot (a 50/50 or 50% chance).
* Assume you could play safe and have an 8/10 (80%) chance of leaving them with a 1/10 pot (10%), and 2/10 (20%) chance of leaving them with a 5/10 (50%) pot.
* Assume that if you missed the pot, you have a 1/2 (50%) chance of leaving them with a 8/10 pot (80%), and a 1/2 (50%) chance of leaving them with a 1/2 (50%) pot.

Taking on the pot gives you a 1/2 (50%) chance to win, but also gives your opponent..
1/2 * 8/10 = 0.4 (40%)
+ 1/2 * 1/2 = 0.25 (25%)
= 0.65 (65%) chance to win in the following shot.

Playing safe gives you a 0% chance to win, but gives your opponent..
8/10 * 1/10 = 0.08 (8%)
+ 2/10 * 5/10 = 0.1 (10%)
= 0.18 (18%) chance to win in the following shot.

This is a generalisation, but you get the idea. With safety, there is always the risk they pot the ball, and also the risk they leave you in a worse spot, but the chance of that is low compared to them missing the pot and leaving you up, or attempting a safety from a tough spot and messing it up.

Playing safe is a gamble, with good odds, that your opponent will give you a better chance after their next shot. But, like any gamble, there is always a chance you will lose and your opponent pots the ball, or leaves you in a worse spot.

[Jaymo9]

nrage...firstly, what a great way to look at it. Thankyou for going to the time and trouble to give your opinion, it really is a good way to look at it. Unfortunately, as you mention, I don't think there is any mathematical equation for LUCK and I firmly believe luck plays an instrumental role in players braking through and not breaking through. Such a great game can boil down to misfortune on one's behalf and unbelievable luck on another's. This is with regards to playing a "so called correct shot" and not reaping the rewards as you come to the table snookered (lol). Anyway, I'll stop doing everybody's head in and say thankyou for your time and patience in your reply to me. Speak soon I should imagine.

Jaymo9

[nrage]

IMO there is no such thing as luck. There is just what you intended to do, and what actually happened. The more skilled you are, the more often they match up.

The more things you take into account on a shot, and consider the possible results of, the more likely you will get "lucky" but it's not luck, it's forward thinking/planning/etc.

Sometimes you don't consciously think ahead at all, and still get "lucky", this is actually the result of an unconscious decision which made you play the shot in the way you did, and not harder, or softer, or in a different way entirely.

The unconscious decision is a based on experience and conditioning, the more you play, the more situations you deal with, the more your brain learns the 'right' shot to play, even if you do not consciously think about it.

As for there being no mathematical equation for "luck" .. well, given that it doesn't exist, you're right. But, if we're talking about the chance of some random positive outcome for your opponent, which people call "luck", the chance of that could probably be calculated using chaos theory and probability but it would be a very complex equation as it would have to take into account a huge number of variables.

It's safe to say that the probability is very low, but so is the probability of rolling a 6 sided dice 10 times and getting all 6s - something which will happen (on average) once if you attempt it 60466176 times.

All in all, because the probability of random luck is so low you're (on average) always going to be better off considering probabilities and choosing the 'right' shot, rather than yourself relying on "luck". In the long run it will pay off, because it's a winning gamble. In the short term you may lose some frames, but that's what happens when you gamble.

[jrc750]

I am quite a "lucky" player in as much as balls will run safe or get the odd fluke double etc, but i put that down to one thing........i hit the ball harder than most players !
I am a lot more comfortable striking the white firmly than gentle roll ins, in fact instead of a nice easy looking roll in, i will prefer a deep screw shot to go backwards before bouncing back to where i would of been with a slow shot
Play to the crowds see....................just like Alex

[nrage]

Hitting the ball harder does increase the chances of a fluked pot in an unintended pocket, and also unintended safety behind balls further away. Soft roll shots tend to have a very low chance of doing either. It's all about the probabilities The more chaos you introduce, the more likely you'll get a random 'good' event, but you also increase the chance of a 'bad' event. However, there are less 'bad' events (white goes in, wrong colour goes in) than 'good' ones in most cases.

[NortonAntiVirus]

i will analyse my opponent to the fullest of my knowledge first. like example if you were playing against someone like judd trump. its best to go safe...

[Theguywithaplan]

If you don't believe in luck, what do you call it if someone misses a pot and it goes all round the table straight into a pocket? Luck like that evens itself out over the years, but it sure doesn't seem like it at times.

[nrage]

If you don't believe in luck, what do you call it if someone misses a pot and it goes all round the table straight into a pocket? Luck like that evens itself out over the years, but it sure doesn't seem like it at times.

I call it "luck" because that's as good a name as any, but the important point is not what it's called, it's what it really is. On any given shot the player choses how to play it, what angle, how hard etc. Those choices all effect the chances of random positive and random negative outcomes (from their point of view).

Like I said earlier, the probability of a random outcome for some shots, like a soft roll shot are very low. The probability if they bash the balls is much higher for both. But, the two probabilities are not necessarily equal, take for example hitting a red full in the face, hard, the white will tend to slow right down, so the chance that it goes in off (bad) is low, but the chance that the red goes in an unintended pocket (good) is higher. So, for that shot, playing it hard increases your chance of something random happening which is good, or good luck.

Players that tend to hit things harder, tend to appear to have more good luck.. but they also tend to miss pots they should have made in the first place, because hitting it hard reduces the margin for error and is more likely to come with movement on the shot etc.

[deant1982]

I would look to play the best shot available to me. If it a risky pot where I can leave my opponent an easy chance, I would only attempt it if forced to (long way behind, or no safety available). If it is a 50/50 pot, and a safety is available, I would weigh up which shot I preferred. If I thought the pot was a good chance of being got, I would play the pot. I would far rather lose a frame having played the correct shot to my mind, than feel I had thrown it away by playing a shot I shouldn't have. It works the same for either shot, the safety or pot.
The one thing I wouldn't let affect my decision is who I am playing. No matter who I am playing, I always look to play the correct shot in my opinion. If it is the wrong shot in other peoples opinion, so be it, but everyone see's the game differently.
Dean

[thelongbomber]

Your job in any given frame is to limit your opponent's opportunities at the table. Full stop. One way to look at cue sports is that you are meant to minimize mistakes and you should always be applying pressure on your opponent.

The more you make balls, play good safety and make frame winning breaks, the less chance an "outside factor" or "x factor" like an unknown opponent, flukes, etc come into play.

Now, of course not all of us make centuries and pot every ball so you have to take your own abilities into account. When facing a given shot, the first thing to consider is your ability to make the shot. If you aren't a long straight potter, that needs to be addressed at a practice table or with a coach like Terry. In match play, however, you can't (and shouldn't) be practicing so you have to be able to honestly and accurately judge your own abilities. A pot one person might take on, you might need to pass up. Have no shame in doing this. Remember: minimize the x-factor. What's better? Passing the pot on and playing safe, or taking on a low percentage shot (for you), missing, and losing the frame?

I say, if you can make the pot 7/10, it's a pot on. If a safety feels like a better choice, however, and you know your opponent will be in trouble, then play safe. Do understand that every time he/she comes to the table you just introduce more unknowns. What if he takes on an impossible shot and makes it? or flukes? or scatters all the balls? or puts a color safe?

Recently, I played a tournament (and won first place). One thing I did was always keep the pressure on my opponent. I took few chances but also did my best to score when I could. If I wasn't cueing quite right, I changed my tactics. My objective in every frame was this: "When I leave this table, I'm going to leave on my own account, not because I missed". I refused to let my opponent in when I should have cleared and if I didn't like the shot at any given moment, I elected to play safe, and keep the pressure on my opponent. I nearly all 6 matches I played, I had my opponent sweating from the first turn to the last turn and I never let up.

Mistakes in this game are highly deceiving. When you make on mistake, the opponent might only score 24 points and you think it's not damage done. You are wrong. Often I see people taking on a pot that isn't in their abilities, missing, getting down on themselves, and eventually losing wondering why they didn't play better. It's not because they didn't play well, it's because they didn't play to their strengths and misunderstood their inabilities.

We all like to be courageous, positive, and take on incredible shots, and at times we should. Do understand though, that this game is about control, precision, skill, and applying consistent unrelenting pressure on opponents. Most of all, you absolutely must know your own abilities (and lack thereof). Hendry, Ronnie, John do it with breakbuilding. Thorburne and Davis do it with locking up opponents.

If you just watched the pros play snooker all day, you might think you should go for every shot, but what you don't see is that they put in thousands of hours to become highly capable cueists through coaching, practice and the like. They know rail shots, screw with reverse, cannons, balk ball positional shots, angles, speed, momentum, bridging, sighting and so much more.

In match, play with the best tools you have. In practice, work on building more tools.

Hope that helps!

[thelongbomber]

edit: removed double posting

[deant1982]

Your job in any given frame is to limit your opponent's opportunities at the table. Full stop. One way to look at cue sports is that you are meant to minimize mistakes and you should always be applying pressure on your opponent.

The more you make balls, play good safety and make frame winning breaks, the less chance an "outside factor" or "x factor" like an unknown opponent, flukes, etc come into play.

Now, of course not all of us make centuries and pot every ball so you have to take your own abilities into account. When facing a given shot, the first thing to consider is your ability to make the shot. If you aren't a long straight potter, that needs to be addressed at a practice table or with a coach like Terry. In match play, however, you can't (and shouldn't) be practicing so you have to be able to honestly and accurately judge your own abilities. A pot one person might take on, you might need to pass up. Have no shame in doing this. Remember: minimize the x-factor. What's better? Passing the pot on and playing safe, or taking on a low percentage shot (for you), missing, and losing the frame?

I say, if you can make the pot 7/10, it's a pot on. If a safety feels like a better choice, however, and you know your opponent will be in trouble, then play safe. Do understand that every time he/she comes to the table you just introduce more unknowns. What if he takes on an impossible shot and makes it? or flukes? or scatters all the balls? or puts a color safe?

Recently, I played a tournament (and won first place). One thing I did was always keep the pressure on my opponent. I took few chances but also did my best to score when I could. If I wasn't cueing quite right, I changed my tactics. My objective in every frame was this: "When I leave this table, I'm going to leave on my own account, not because I missed". I refused to let my opponent in when I should have cleared and if I didn't like the shot at any given moment, I elected to play safe, and keep the pressure on my opponent. I nearly all 6 matches I played, I had my opponent sweating from the first turn to the last turn and I never let up.

Mistakes in this game are highly deceiving. When you make on mistake, the opponent might only score 24 points and you think it's not damage done. You are wrong. Often I see people taking on a pot that isn't in their abilities, missing, getting down on themselves, and eventually losing wondering why they didn't play better. It's not because they didn't play well, it's because they didn't play to their strengths and misunderstood their inabilities.

We all like to be courageous, positive, and take on incredible shots, and at times we should. Do understand though, that this game is about control, precision, skill, and applying consistent unrelenting pressure on opponents. Most of all, you absolutely must know your own abilities (and lack thereof). Hendry, Ronnie, John do it with breakbuilding. Thorburne and Davis do it with locking up opponents.

If you just watched the pros play snooker all day, you might think you should go for every shot, but what you don't see is that they put in thousands of hours to become highly capable cueists through coaching, practice and the like. They know rail shots, screw with reverse, cannons, balk ball positional shots, angles, speed, momentum, bridging, sighting and so much more.

In match, play with the best tools you have. In practice, work on building more tools.

Hope that helps!

A very good post! Of course, you won't win every frame you play, but you will feel better when you lose (sounds sill I know) knowing that you did everything you could to win, but were outplayed on the night, not to mention the sense of achievement by destroying a good player, simply because you outplayed him, not just outpotted, outscored, or out-safety'd him, but all them, and pummelled them into submission. (Sounds like I'm a sadist, but the pride you feel from really outplaying a good player in that fashion is overwhelming)!
Dean.

[thelongbomber]

A very good post! Of course, you won't win every frame you play, but you will feel better when you lose (sounds sill I know) knowing that you did everything you could to win, but were outplayed on the night, not to mention the sense of achievement by destroying a good player, simply because you outplayed him, not just outpotted, outscored, or out-safety'd him, but all them, and pummelled them into submission. (Sounds like I'm a sadist, but the pride you feel from really outplaying a good player in that fashion is overwhelming)!
Dean.

Yep. You are better losing playing your best than taking on silly shots trying to be like Ronnie or someone else and being mad that you can't play the game like them. If you play to your personal best, confidence rises over time and you get better and enjoy the sport more regardless of what happens as an outcome.