Prediction stats

[The Statman]

All figures exclude bonuses, except columns headed accordingly.

Northern Ireland Trophy

Round	Predic- tions received	Pointcs Available	Highest score	Lowest score	Total points scored	Average per Predictor	Average per match	Number in tie-break	Number of high break bonuses
First round	72	32	13	6	671	9.32	0.582	–	(122) 1
Second round	62	32	21	10	987	15.92	0.995	3	(131) 2
Third round	53	16	9	0	212	4.00	0.500	–	(109) 0
Quarter-finals	52	8	4	0	120	2.31	0.577	4	(137) 2
Semi-finals	44	4	2	0	78	1.77	0.886	35	(106) 0
Final	48	2	2	0	16	0.33	0.333	3	(140) 1

Overall summary:

Total points available (excluding bonuses)	5824
Total points scored (excluding bonuses)	2084
Percentage of points scored (excluding bonuses)	35.78%

Pot Black Cup
(note, only one point available for each match, rather than 2)

Round	Predic- tions received	Points available	Highest score	Lowest score	Total points scored	Average per Predictor	Average per match	Number in tie-break	Number of high break bonuses
First round	52	4	4	0	115	2.21	0.553	2	(82) 1
Semi-finals	52	2	2	0	69	1.33	0.663	22	(80) 1
Final	52	1	1	0	22	0.42	0.423	22	(119) 0

Overall summary:

Total points available (excluding bonuses)	364
Total points scored (excluding bonuses)	206
Percentage of points scored (excluding bonuses)	56.59%

Premier League

Round	Predic- tions received	Points available	Highest score	Lowest score	Total points scored	Average per Predictor	Average per match	Number in tie-break	Number of high break bonuses
Period 1	57	8	7	1	259	4.54	1.136	5	(124) 1
Period 2	49	8	3	0	84	1.71	0.429	10	(79) 0
Period 3	49	8	7	1	240	4.90	1.224	5	(112) 2
Period 4	46	8	6	1	183	3.98	0.995	3	(108) 0
Period 5	48	10	8	0	223	4.65	0.929	2	(120) 1
Semi-finals	46	4	3	0	72	1.57	0.783	4	(111) 3
Final	50	2	2	0	48	0.96	0.960	2	(122) 1

Overall summary:

Total points available (excluding bonuses)	2372
Total points scored (excluding bonuses)	1109
Percentage of points scored (excluding bonuses)	46.75%

Grand Prix
(Note: The 115 first-round matches were worth one point total rather than the usual two; there were also 7 group-winner bonus points available in addition to the highest break – see last column.)

Round	Predic- tions received	Points Available	Highest score	Lowest score	Total points scored	Average per Predictor	Average per match	Number in tie-break	Number of high break bonuses	Number of group winner bonuses
First round	52	115	50½	34	2120½	40.78	0.355	–	(147) 7	109
Second round	51	16	9	2	253	4.96	0.621	3	(136) 1
Quarter-finals	53	8	5	0	91	1.72	0.429	–	(119) 1
Semi-finals	46	4	4	0	86	1.87	0.935	2	(100) 0
Final	43	2	2	0	47	1.09	1.093	6	(105) 0

Overall summary:

Total points available (excluding bonuses)	7490.0
Total points scored (excluding bonuses)	2597½
Percentage of points scored (excluding bonuses)	34.68%

UK Open
(Note: all matches – not just the final – carry the intermediate 1½-point tariff)

Round	Predic- tions received	Points Available	Highest score	Lowest score	Total points scored	Average per Predictor	Average per match	Number in tie-break	Number of high break bonuses
First round	55	30	17½	8	647	11.76	0.784	–	(131) 3
Second round	46	32	20	7½	654	14.22	0.889	–	(146) 0
Third round	52	16	10½	1	329½	6.34	0.792	–	(128) 0
Quarter-finals	52	6	4½	0	123	2.36	0.788	2	(128) 1
Semi-finals	51	4	4	0	87½	1.72	0.858	2	(133) 2
Final	48	2	2	0	31½	0.66	0.656	3	(135) 3

Overall summary:

Total points available (excluding bonuses)	4566.0
Total points scored (excluding bonuses)	1872½
Percentage of points scored (excluding bonuses)	41.01%

SEASON SUMMARY – FIRST HALF

Total points available (excluding bonuses)	20616
Total points scored (excluding bonuses)	7869
Percentage of points scored (excluding bonuses)	38.17%

Masters

Round	Predic- tions received	Points Available	Highest score	Lowest score	Total points scored	Average per Predictor	Average per match	Number in tie-break	Number of high break bonuses
First round	63	22	11	4	473	7.51	0.683	2	(147) 5
Quarter-finals	60	8	6	1	219	3.65	0.913	–	(126) 0
Semi-finals	58	4	4	0	111	1.91	0.957	–	(130) 0
Final	58	2	2	0	26½	0.45	0.447	–	(143) 1

Overall summary:

Total points available (excluding bonuses)	2214.0
Total points scored (excluding bonuses)	829½
Percentage of points scored (excluding bonuses)	37.46%

Malta Cup

Round	Predic- tions received	Points Available	Highest score	Lowest score	Total points scored	Average per Predictor	Average per match	Number in tie-break	Number of high break bonuses
First round	58	42	23	11	994	17.14	0.816	–	(136) 1
Second round	53	16	11	3	359	6.77	0.847	–	(135) 1
Quarter-finals	57	8	6	0	97	1.67	0.418	–	(134) 6
Semi-finals	53	4	4	0	69	1.30	0.651	–	(123) 0
Final	52	2	2	0	34½	0.66	0.663	3	(102) 0

Overall summary:

Total points available (excluding bonuses)	4064.0
Total points scored (excluding bonuses)	1551½
Percentage of points scored (excluding bonuses)	38.18%

Welsh Open

Round	Predic- tions received	Points Available	Highest score	Lowest score	Total points scored	Average per Predictor	Average per match	Number in tie-break	Number of high break bonuses
First round	59	32	16	7	611	10.36	0.647	–	(137) 4
Second round	52	32	15	6	550	10.58	0.661	–	(135) 6
Third round	52	16	10	2	289	5.57	0.347	2	(141) 2
Quarter-finals	55	8	6	0	117	2.13	0.532	0	(147) 1
Semi-finals	54	4	3	0	72	1.33	0.667	5	(109) 0
Final	51	2	2	0	39	0.76	0.765	0	(114) 2

Overall summary:

Total points available (excluding bonuses)	5142
Total points scored (excluding bonuses)	1678
Percentage of points scored (excluding bonuses)	32.63%

China Open

Round	Predic- tions received	Points Available	Highest score	Lowest score	Total points scored	Average per Predictor	Average per match	Number in tie-break	Number of high break bonuses
First round	58	48	24	13	1069	18.43	0.768	–	(141) 7
Second round	47	16	9	3	280	5.96	0.745	2	(120) 0
Quarter-finals	47	8	6	0	117	2.49	0.622	2	(145) 0
Semi-finals	46	4	2	0	42	0.91	0.457	11	(117) 1
Final	46	2	2	0	53½	1.16	1.163	9	(126) 1

Overall summary:

Total points available (excluding bonuses)	4188.0
Total points scored (excluding bonuses)	1561½
Percentage of points scored (excluding bonuses)	37.29%

World Championship

Round	Predic- tions received	Points Available	Highest score	Lowest score	Total points scored	Average per Predictor	Average per match	Number in tie-break	Number of high break bonuses
Final qual.	60	32	18½	8½	755	12.58	0.393	–	(142) 2
First round	83	32	16½	7	954½	11.50	0.719	–	(135) 1
Second round	65	16	10½	1	395	6.08	0.760	–	(143) 3
Quarter-finals	63	8	6	0	177	2.81	0.702	–	(144) 4
Semi-finals	61	4	3½	0	90	1.48	0.738	–	(134) 3
Final	62	2	2	0	68	1.10	1.097	12	(129) 0

Overall summary:

Total points available (excluding bonuses)	4568.0
Total points scored (excluding bonuses)	1684½
Percentage of points scored (excluding bonuses)	36.88%

SEASON SUMMARY

Total points available (excluding bonuses)	42490
Total points scored (excluding bonuses)	15928
Percentage of points scored (excluding bonuses)	37.49%

[highlander69]

Hi Statman. A few of us only (sadly) got 6 pts for round 1. Was that below the relagation point?? :@(

[The Statman]

Oh yes. Now corrected.

[highlander69]

Cheers Statman.. I thought 6 pts was looked upon as being so disgraceful that it couldn't be acknowledged. I improved a bit in round 2 though. It seemed easier to do well last year.

[elvaago]

I agree, highlander. There seem to be more top level players this year than last year. Very nice to see.

[highlander69]

You're right there Elvaago. When you look at the draws this season there are so many matches that could go either way. But that's definately healthy for snooker... Not for my predictions it seems!!

[elvaago]

Eh, my predictions are usually bad. I've never won a round (came close once!) and I've certainly never come close to winning a whole tournament. But I'm lucky in love so I can't complain!

[The Statman]

I have meddled with this table somewhat, and updated it.

It shows that the Round Robin predictions were indeed very difficult to predict, although they averaged 0.35 per match (worth one point only, remember), as opposed to 0.33 for the NI Final (worth two points).

Which I think means that the NI Final was statistically almost twice as hard to predict as the Round Robins!

[The Statman]

At this moment, there have been a total of 14918 points available, and a total of 4799½ actually scored. That represents about 32%.

[elvaago]

I have meddled with this table somewhat, and updated it.

It shows that the Round Robin predictions were indeed very difficult to predict, although they averaged 0.35 per match (worth one point only, remember), as opposed to 0.33 for the NI Final (worth two points).

Which I think means that the NI Final was statistically almost twice as hard to predict as the Round Robins!

Of course it was. NI final had way more possible scorelines. 5-0 5-1 5-2 5-3 5-4 4-5 3-5 2-5 1-5 0-5 rather than just 0-3 1-3 2-3 3-2 3-1 3-0. ;-)

[The Statman]

Of course it was. NI final had way more possible scorelines. 5-0 5-1 5-2 5-3 5-4 4-5 3-5 2-5 1-5 0-5 rather than just 0-3 1-3 2-3 3-2 3-1 3-0. ;-)

Yes I appreciate that. There were 18 scorelines possible for the NI Final – 9-0 to 9-8 and 0-9 to 8-9. However, of those, one scored 2 points, two scored 1½ points and five scored 1 point. With the Round Robins, in each match (of which there were one hundred and fifteen!) one scoreline was worth 1 point, two were worth ½ point and the other three worth nothing.

In the end, whatever the length of the match there is a 50% chance of scoring nothing – these being the scorelines favouring the losing player. So surely there is more of a comparison available than you suggest?

[elvaago]

I thought you meant the final rounds of the NI trophy, compared to the RR of the grand prix. Silly me.

[Curtis]

Statman, your table-building skills are getting quite impressive. I am a bit jealous

[The Statman]

I have now done a big update of this table. Interesting to see which were the most predictable rounds/tournaments.

[The Statman]

This table has been updated and reveals some interesting stats.

Notably, the Masters final was indeed very low-scoring; ironically enough the Northern Ireland final, where Ding beat O'Sullivan, was actually lower-scoring.