Prediction Contest - Feedback and Suggestions

[Robert602]

This is the thread for suggestions relating to the prediction contest. If you think anything should be done differently, post it here.

My suggestion: With regards to the rules around editing, do you think it'd be best to simply disable post editing in this section? I believe that's easy enough to do, it'd save any 'but I was only correcting a typo' type disputes.

[The Statman]

Good idea.

But I would potentially still like to edit results notifications! I never get them right first time!

No, seriously though, if that's possible it would be great. I can update/correct results in a new thread – that is actually preferable because you can see more easily that a query has been responded to if it is further down.

[Robert602]

Sorry about that Statman, I saw the bit about putting suggestions in another thread so thought I ought to create one.

I'm sure Curtis is able to flick a switch to disable editing in here, I'll ask him about it.

[Mitsuko]

You can do it on other boards which I've been admin on such as Ezboard and Punbb, so it shouldn't be a problem.

[Curtis]

I have disabled editing in the entire Prediction Contest section. Can someone other than Robert or myself test it? We still have the ability because of our administrator status.

[The Statman]

Yep Curtis, there's nothing to test because the "edit" button has, as if by magic, disappeared!

Thanks.

[chasmmi]

With regards to the Premier League scoring:

Scoring for league matches, where an exact number of frames are played, will be as follows:
Correct scoreline: 2 points; scoreline 1 frame adrift, one point.


There only eight frames and so scores could not be one frame adrift as there are only possibilities of 4-4, 5-3, 6-2, 7-1 and 8-0.

Would it not be easier to just predictr win lose or drwa as bhy this method it would seem that if I predict A to beat B 5-3 I will get a point for any of 4-4, 5-3 or 6-2 (which will cover about 90% of results).

Just a thought, sorry if I'm completely wrong here.

P.S was there ever a decision made about weighting certain tournaments with regards to importance (eg dbl points for WC)

other than that I look forward to taking part.

when is the first event?

[Alex0paul]

There are 6 frames in the premier league chasmmi, not 8

[chasmmi]

Well that makes my point even more valid then doesn't it? there are now only scorelines of 3-3, 4-2, 5-1, or 6-0

[Robert602]

There only eight frames and so scores could not be one frame adrift as there are only possibilities of 4-4, 5-3, 6-2, 7-1 and 8-0.

Would it not be easier to just predictr win lose or drwa as bhy this method it would seem that if I predict A to beat B 5-3 I will get a point for any of 4-4, 5-3 or 6-2 (which will cover about 90% of results).

There are 7 possible scorelines in a 6 frame match. (6-0, 5-1, 4-2, 3-3, 2-4, 1-5, 0-6). The reverse ones are important because you do specify which player is which in the prediction.

If I change your 'A to beat B 5-3' example into 6 frames, and say I predict A to beat B 4-2, I'd get 2 points for 4-2, one point for 5-1 or 3-3, and no points for 6-0, 2-4, 1-5 or 0-6.

My chance of scoring is therefore 3 in 7 (43%, not 90%), slightly lower than for a knockout match, where it's 50%. If I'm daring enough to predict a whitewash that 43% drops to 28%. This difference is compensated for by the fact that the chances of getting the scoreline bang on (2 points) is somewhat higher in a league match (1/7) than it is for a typical knockout match (1/18 for a best of 9).

So, league matches and knockout matches are given roughly equal weighting under Statman's system, which is presumably desirable. Under your system, it'd be harder to score in a league match than the average knockout match, particularly if you predicted a draw.

[davis_greatest]

There are 7 possible scorelines in a 6 frame match. (6-0, 5-1, 4-2, 3-3, 2-4, 1-5, 0-6). The reverse ones are important because you do specify which player is which in the prediction.

If I change your 'A to beat B 5-3' example into 6 frames, and say I predict A to beat B 4-2, I'd get 2 points for 4-2, one point for 5-1 or 3-3, and no points for 6-0, 2-4, 1-5 or 0-6.

My chance of scoring is therefore 3 in 7 (43%, not 90%), slightly lower than for a knockout match, where it's 50%. If I'm daring enough to predict a whitewash that 43% drops to 28%. This difference is compensated for by the fact that the chances of getting the scoreline bang on (2 points) is somewhat higher in a league match (1/7) than it is for a typical knockout match (1/18 for a best of 9).

So, league matches and knockout matches are given roughly equal weighting under Statman's system, which is presumably desirable. Under your system, it'd be harder to score in a league match than the average knockout match, particularly if you predicted a draw.

Robert, you seem to be assuming that the 7 scorelines are equally likely. They are not. The probability of each will depend on the probability of each player winning each frame, but if you assume that each player wins each frame with probability 50%, independent of each other frame, then the probabilities of the 7 scorelines are, respectively, 1/64, 6/64, 15/64, 20/64, 15/64, 6/64, 1/64.

Under the above assumptions, your chance of scoring would be 20/64 + 15/64 + 6/64 = 41/64 (about 64%, not 43%),

[chasmmi]

What about my other question.

Did we decide to weight more important tournaments or are they all the same scoring system?

[Robert602]

Yeah, you've got me there, I keep telling you I can't do probability! . Seriously, it was a deliberate oversimplification to save a bit of time (cardinal sin in maths I know), I did the same thing when considering 2 point bonuses. I didn't think it'd make all that much difference to the final numbers with short matches, but evidently it is significant.

Of course, assuming that the players are equally likely to win a frame isn't entirely sound either, and it does get rather complicated if you take variation in abilities, form and confidence into account, both before a match and during. You'd probably have to look at some empirical data to do a proper analysis of how often each score actually does come up, but in the absence of that your numbers are no doubt much closer.

So, what you're saying is that league matches are given too much weight. Can you think of a simple modification to the scoring system that would improve it?

chasmmi - I recall we had a vote on it on the BBC and the majority wanted to keep equal weighting. In a way, the longer matches at the world's bring their own reward because they're easier to predict. I wouldn't be opposed to some kind of bonus on top of that though, double points for correct or near correct scorelines perhaps?

[chasmmi]

How bout a simple win lose or draw prediction which earns one point and then bonus points can be earned through predicting the finishing league tablwe (say a point for each player in the correct position).

so if the were 4 people and I predict they'll finish A B C D and they infact finish D B C A then I'd get 2 bonus points on top of my result predictions for getting B and C in the correct finishing positions.

Just an idea, probably a bad one.

[The Statman]

I have decided not to give more weight to 'more important' matches/tournaments.

But, for matches that are best-of-17 or longer (which includes all of the UK and Worlds, and of course the final of other events), there will be the usual 2 for correct winner and scoreline, and 1 for correct winner, but with the added grade of 1½ points for the correct winner with the scoreline one frame adrift.

As for the League, I thought this was the easiest way to gauge it, whether slightly weighted either way or not, so that it still had some significance with the rest of the tournaments – remembering that the season is also one long contest – while still acknowledging the fact that the match does not stop when one player exceeds the 'winning post'.