Predictions Stats 2007-08

[The Statman]

Here is a round-by-round summary of this season's predictions stats.

These should be self-explanatory, and highlight the rounds and tournaments which most matched, or went against, our predicted results.

Rounds were scored as follows:
Premier League and Malta Cup group stages: exact score 2 points, score one frame adrift 1 point (not related to 'winner' since matches were an even number of frames);
Pot Black matches: 1 point for correct winner;
Grand Prix first round: 1 point for correct winner and score; ½ point for correct winner with other score – plus one bonus point for each correctly predicted group winner;
Best-of-17 or higher (i.e. all UK and World matches, plus final of other ranking events and Masters and Malta final): 2 points for correct winner and score; 1½ points for correct winner with score one frame adrift; 1 point for correct winner with other score;
All other matches: 2 points for correct winner and score; 1 point for correct winner with other score.

Columns are as follows:
Number of Predictors: number of entries received
Points available per round: the total score attainable by each Predictor
Total available points: number of entries × the above
Total points scored: total number of points awarded, excluding high-break bonus
% success: total points scored ÷ total available points
Average score for round: total points scored ÷ number of entries
Average score per match: the above ÷ number of matches in the round
Each match worth: number of points available for each match
Number in tie-break: number of Predictors tying for top place
High break bonuses: number of correct high-break predictions (break shown in bracakets)

Round	Number of Predictors	Points available per round	Total points available	Total points scored	% success	Average score for round	Average score per match	Each match worth	Number in tie-break	High break bonuses
SM Round 1	56	48	2688	952	35.42%	17.00	0.708	2	–	1 (133)
SM Round 2	53	16	848	234	27.59%	4.42	0.552	2	–	2 (131)
SM Quarter-finals	48	8	384	131	34.11%	2.73	0.682	2	8	1 (127)
SM Semi-finals	49	4	196	29	14.80%	0.59	0.296	2	3	0 (103)
SM Final	45	2	90	28½	31.67%	0.63	0.633	2	2	0 (143)
SM Overall	251		4206	1374½	32.68%
–
PL period 1	59	8	472	122	25.85%	2.07	0.517	2	–	1 (138)
PL period 2	50	8	400	189	47.25%	3.78	0.945	2	–	0 (141)
PL period 3	42	8	336	141	41.96%	3.36	0.839	2	2	1 (143)
PL period 4	42	8	336	163	48.51%	3.88	0.970	2	2	0 (133)
PL period 5	44	10	440	172	39.09%	3.91	0.391	2	–	2 (138)
PL Semi-finals	44	4	176	61	34.66%	1.39	0.693	2	7	0 (116)
PL Final	44	2	88	52	59.09%	1.18	1.182	2	–	0 (110)
PL Overall	325		2248	900	40.04%
–
PB Round 1	47	4	188	90	47.87%	1.91	0.479	1	–	0 (73)
PB Semi-finals	48	2	96	36	37.50%	0.75	0.375	1	9	0 (59)
PB Final	48	1	48	29	60.42%	0.60	0.604	1	29	0 (29)
PB Overall	141		332	155	46.69%
–
GP Round 1	45	128	5400	2022½	37.45%	44.94	0.375	1	–	11 (147)
GP Round 2	48	16	768	245	31.90%	5.10	0.638	2	–	0 (119)
GP Quarter-finals	45	8	360	136	37.78%	3.02	0.756	2	–	3 (137)
GP Semi-finals	39	4	156	73	46.79%	1.87	0.936	2	5	1 (138)
GP Final	44	2	88	5	5.68%	0.11	0.114	2	–	1 (127)
GP Overall	221		6772	2481½	36.64%
–
NI Round 1	51	32	1632	596	36.52%	11.69	0.730	2	2	3 (136)
NI Round 2	49	32	1568	638	40.69%	13.02	0.814	2	3	2 (142)
NI Round 3	51	16	816	333	40.81%	6.53	0.816	2	–	5 (147)
NI Quarter-finals	51	8	408	147	36.03%	2.88	0.721	2	–	0 (113)
NI Semi-finals	49	4	196	80	40.82%	1.63	0.816	2	–	0 (95)
NI Final	49	2	98	45½	46.43%	0.93	0.929	2	10	0 (135)
NI Overall	300		4718	1839½	38.99%
–
UK Round 1	63	32	2016	686	34.03%	10.89	0.681	2	–	5 (143)
UK Round 2	49	16	784	379½	48.41%	7.74	0.968	2	4	3 (139)
UK Quarter-finals	55	8	440	217	49.32%	3.95	0.986	2	–	4 (137)
UK Semi-finals	54	4	216	88	40.74%	1.63	0.815	2	9	7 (147)
UK Final	51	2	102	39½	38.73%	0.77	0.775	2	–	0 (126)
UK Overall	272		3558	1410	39.63%
–
M Round 1	69	20	1380	505	36.59%	7.32	0.732	2	–	2 (135)
M Quarter-finals	58	8	464	75	16.16%	1.29	0.323	2	3	1 (141)
M Semi-finals	59	4	236	68	28.81%	1.15	0.576	2	5	0 (107)
M Final	57	2	114	47	41.23%	0.82	0.825	2	2	0 (141)
M Overall	243		2194	695	31.68%
–
MC Round 1	56	80	4480	2103	46.94%	37.55	0.939	2	–	1 (134)
MC Semi-finals	48	4	192	41	21.35%	0.85	0.427	2	–	2 (137)
MC Final	40	2	80	19	23.75%	0.48	0.475	2	–	0 (91)
MC Overall	144		4752	2163	45.52%
–
WC Final Qualifying	64	32	2048	830½	40.55%	12.98	0.811	2	–	5 (138)
–
WO Round 1	63	32	2016	747	37.05%	11.86	0.741	2	2	0 (123)
WO Round 2	54	32	1728	705	40.80%	13.06	0.816	2	–	1 (134)
WO Round 3	54	16	864	321	37.15%	5.94	0.743	2	–	2 (129)
WO Quarter-finals	56	8	448	183	40.85%	3.27	0.817	2	5	0 (108)
WO Semi-finals	57	4	228	96	42.11%	1.68	0.842	2	3	0 (143)
WO Final	54	2	108	20½	18.98%	0.38	0.380	2	–	4 (135)
WO Overall	338		5392	2072½	38.44%
–
CO Round 1	62	48	2976	1320	44.35%	21.29	0.887	2	–	5 (140)
CO Round 2	57	16	912	391	42.87%	6.86	0.857	2	2	2 (136)
CO Quarter-finals	53	8	424	173	40.80%	3.26	0.816	2	4	1 (127)
CO Semi-finals	51	4	204	61	29.90%	1.20	0.598	2	–	5 (147)
CO Final	55	2	110	45½	41.36%	0.83	0.827	2	2	0 (137)
CO Overall	278		4626	1990½	43.03%
–
Overall figures	2577		40846	15912	38.96%

[Shaggy365]

So what you're saying is that you've got lots of data then.

Really quite impressive. Setting me a high standard for my competition.

[Kathrin]

WOW, very impressive, thanks!

[Odrl]

I wonder, where would someone, who predicted in the majority for every match, be in the seasonlong standings?