Betfred World Championship 2020

[fkhan]

The main event is almost upon us. 17 days of pure adrenalin rush. Who's your pick to win it this year?

[motorhead]

Anyone knows when Odrl's review will be out))))

[Nifty50]

Looks like there’s still tickets available for most of the sessions. Final sold out as usual. Wonder if the normal Z list celebrities like Front Row Brian will be there this year.

[trains]

Wonder if the normal Z list celebrities like Front Row Brian will be there this year.

Bit out of kilter for a snooker forum isn’t it ? i think the guy just likes watching snooker and doesn’t model himself as a celebrity , since when did celebrities ever appear at the crucible anyway .

[DeanH]

Bit out of kilter for a snooker forum isn’t it ? i think the guy just likes watching snooker and doesn’t model himself as a celebrity , since when did celebrities ever appear at the crucible anyway .

Ronnie Wood
that artist block
Paul Martin (waggly-hand) - fanatic if snooker (plays in a friend of mine league team
that tall bloke off pointless
and over the years there have been other "celebs"

[trains]

Ronnie Wood
that artist block
Paul Martin (waggly-hand) - fanatic if snooker (plays in a friend of mine league team
that tall bloke off pointless
and over the years there have been other "celebs"

wooahh the people you know :wink:
just kidding .

[itsnoteasy]

Bit out of kilter for a snooker forum isn’t it ? i think the guy just likes watching snooker and doesn’t model himself as a celebrity , since when did celebrities ever appear at the crucible anyway .

I think Ronnie has a few celebrity followers, Damien Hirst, if you can call him a celebrity,turns up to watch him. I'm a bit worried if Ronnie dies he will end up pickled in a big jar , exhibited in the Tate modern.

[trains]

Btw i’ve seen ronnie wood at the masters , may have been but i’ve never seen him at the crucible , he probably thinks there’s no wi-fi beyond the m25 .

[Danger Steve]

I think Ronnie has a few celebrity followers, Damien Hirst, if you can call him a celebrity,turns up to watch him. I'm a bit worried if Ronnie dies he will end up pickled in a big jar , exhibited in the Tate modern.

Hirst I think is a mate of Ronnie’s... He wouldn’t have to do too much work, as Ronnie’s brain is already pickled!

[Nifty50]

Yeah Front Row Brian is a big snooker fan but more generally he’s a big Sports fan and turns up at a lot of major sporting events, always in a great seat, and hence the nickname FRB. I met him at The Crucible a couple of times. Loves to see his face on the telly.
PS. Stephen Fry is another celebrity snooker fan although doesn’t attend many events.

[fkhan]

Anyone knows when Odrl's review will be out))))

I'm also waiting for it.

[JimMalone]

Honestly I was pretty disappointed in most of this season. Only Judd Trump and Shaun Murphy were playing pretty well consistently (at least that's how I remember it) with occasional glimpses of other players as Neil Robertson or Stephen Maguire. So does this mean Trump and Murphy are the big favourites to win it this year? While I think you can't argue against Trump being the logical favourite this year, you shouldn't immediately bet on him. Cause often the top player of the season is not the one that takes the title at the Crucible.
Gut feeling can be as important, but also as misleading...
I will be talking much about the form of the season in the following paragraphs, but keep in mind that in the end at the Crucible this isn't always most important - especially this year with the long break since most of the season - but the whole package of player is more of a decisive factor.

I've kept the players I think have a chance at the World Title this year in red.

FIRST QUARTER:
Trump - Ford
Yan - Slessor
Maguire - Gould
K. Wilson - Hamilton

I think Judd Trump can't complain about his draw (though it's not really drawn, but aside of the qualifiers just seeded of course). I don't really view Tom Ford as one of the most dangerous qualifiers. He's a solid player, but will miss enough balls to give Trump his chances. And despite on paper showing some good results this year I haven't seen really much progress by Yan Bingtao, who in my opinion still doesn't score heavily enough and seems to have not enough confidence still. I think he is one of the weaker seeds as well and I'm not even sure he will beat Elliot Slessor. So I'd usually expect Trump, who has dominated this season and won two of the biggest and three other noteworthy events, to be in the quarterfinals at least.
The big question mark for me is, how much pressure he will feel. He wasn't always the most clutch player, but has matured since. Still snooker will be decided mentally and if Trump begins to think about the Crucible curse it could haunt him. I think though he has more than enough confidence not to care too much about it and it might help that there are limited spectators this year.

Stephen Maguire vs. Martin Gould could be a fun match to watch with lots of crazy pots. It was refreshing to see Gould playing pretty well in the qualifiers and I'm happy he's showing some of his class again. I was even more happy to see Maguire playing as well as he did this season though. 15 years ago it was almost not imaginable for me that he would not become World Champion one day. But in the last years I've given up every hope for him in that regard. As I wrote above the most important aspect of snooker is the mental one. And I don't think Maguire has what it needs there.
Well, partly he proved me wrong this season. He had an inspired run at the UK championship, but found his master in Ding in the final and played some of his best snooker I've seen (at least since the 2007 World Championship I guess) to win the Tour Championship a few weeks ago. So is this finally, after all this long wait, his year? I stay skeptical. The Tour Championship was his first title in seven years and it would be a pretty amazing achievement if he followed it immediately with another win.
I think though he could have another deep run and might give Trump some troubles in the quarterfinals if he makes it there. He lost heavily to Judd at the 2019 edition, but I'd expect a rematch to be much closer.

There's another player in this section who could earn the first semifinal spot though: Kyren Wilson. He has such a well all-around game, at least since he strengthened his scoring, and he has always played his best snooker at the Crucible. Four years in a row he has now made the quarterfinals and I'm more confident than in Maguire that he will show up to their promising second rounder. I make Maguire the favourite against Gould, but as much as I like Anthony Hamilton I think that Wilson winning over the sheriff is one of the safer picks among the first round matches. Wilson with his solid matchplay could be exactly the kind of opponent Maguire doesn't want to play and could annoy the Scotsman soon, if things are not going his way. Also while I like Maguire more than Wilson I have to say, that I think Kyren would give an even tougher run for the win in a possible quarterfinal. In matches over at least a distance of Best-of-11 Wilson owns a 4-1 record over Trump. Of course you can question the worth of this stat, since Trump has drastically improved since those matches have played. But again this could play a small mental role.

SECOND QUARTER:
Higgins - Stevens
Gilbert - Maflin
Lisowski - McGill
Allen - Clarke

This part of the draw is easily the weakest one in my eyes. If we will have a surprise semifinalist again - though having two like last year was an outlier - this would be the first section to look for one.
Without offending anyone I think there are only two (currently) big names here. The most notable one of course is the one of the four time champion John Higgins. Already last year I've said that I don't view him truly as a contender for the crown any more and he nearly proved me wrong. But I haven't learned my lesson and say it again, that while I don't fully rule out him winning (especially with this draw), I don't put him among the five or six top favourites. The only reason he is red is, cause he is John Higgins...
I think since his 2017 World Final Higgins has be on a slow, but steady decline. Yes, he played one more great World Championship in 2018, beating Trump and Wilson on the way and coming within two frames of claiming a fifth title. But if you don't buy my claim since 2017 I think it's obvious that at least since his bitter loss to Mark Williams he hasn't been the same. He had the semifinal at the World Open and the quarterfinal at the UK Championship this season, but I was still not that impressed by his level of play. At least the consistency is missing as Higgins intersperses much, much more mistakes than in earlier years in his frames.
And I really think that his draw is pretty tricky. Of course what counts for Higgins counts three times for Matthew Stevens. His best years were long, long, long ago. But the Welshman has played well in the qualifiers and always loved playing at the crucible. Still Higgins, despite being in decline, has avoided first-round-losses mostly this season. But you could argue he is due to another early loss at the World Championship.

The second round could bring Higgins a rematch with David Gilbert, whom he narrowly beat in last year's semifinal. Will Gilbert pull of a Barry Hawkins and follow up his surprising first great Crucible run immediately with a second one? He has done quite well in the longer tournaments this year, reaching the quarterfinals in the World Open and the China Championship. It's alarming though that his results have been worse as the season went along. And despite his first round opponent Kurt Maflin isn't a well-known name, the Norwegian played pretty well in the qualifiers and could be potentially tricky.

The other big name in this section is Mark Allen. He has been putting together one of his best seasons with some semifinals and he also passes the eye-test, which means I really think he is playing pretty well. His long potting has become better as well as his safety play. Mentally as tactically he really has matured over the last couple of seasons, proven by the titles at the Masters and the International Championship in 2018 and I really think he coulda be a contender this year. He is also due a good result at the World Championship again, making the quarterfinals only once at his last eight starts in Sheffield. Jamie Clarke did great in the qualifiers, beating Joe Perry and Sunny Akani, but I can't really say much about him as I never have watched him play. However I'll make Allen the clear favourite here.

The last match here is the one between Jack Lisowski and Anthony McGill. This is the one where I'd actually make the underdog the favourite. Despite his disappointing two last season, in which there was not only no improvement, but he was actually playing way worse than a few years ago, McGill was playing well in the qualifiers and I think it can be an advantage having already enjoyed a few matches recently. Lisowski is still one of the weaker seeds and I'd pick an upset here. Both, McGill and Lisowski could do damage to Allen, but when I talked about the man from Northern Ireland not making the quarterfinals for a long time you should also look at the opponents he faced. Between 2014 and 2017, when he always lost in the second round, he was defeated by Neil Robertson, Barry Hawkins, Kyren Wilson and John Higgins - all stronger opposition than what to expect from McGill or Lisowski usually. So I'd say Mark Allen can be quite happy with his draw.

THIRD QUARTER:
Williams - McManus
Bingham - Carty
Ding - King
O'Sullivan - Un-Nooh

At first glance this is a section with some big names. You have three world champions here and one player, who probably is a better player than some, who really lifted the title. But you can put a questionmark behind everybody of them.
Mark Williams is the top seed here, but this is mainly because of his World Title two years ago. After the World Championship those points will drop off and he will need a good result here to stay within the Top 10 afterwards, right now he would just be #11 and he is only #14 on the ranking list of this season. I've got the bad feeling that with his rather unexpected coup in 2018 Williams has proven what he wanted to proof and is now back in his relaxing mood and not 100 percent motivated. And I think less than 100 percent of commitment are not enough if he wants to equal John Higgins' achievement of four world titles. In fact I think this could even make it difficult to survive the first round, in which he plays a vetaran, even older than him, Alan McManus.
The winner of this battle of oldies could play Stuart Bingham next. The 2015 champion should on paper be the big favourite over Ashley Carty, who was just world number 82 before the qualifiers, but Bingham should be careful as Carty beat two higher ranked players there with Jimmy Robertson and Robert Milkins. And especially because of his own form. In January Bingham added the Masters title to his World Championship crown, but this was the sole highlight of his season. Other than that the 44-year old suffered many disappointments with the quarterfinal of the World Open being his best ranking event result. In fact he is only #33 on the one-year list and probably will need a good 2020/21 campaign to stay in the Top 16. Of course a strong result at Sheffield would help.

A really mouthwatering prospect is a second rounder between Ding Junhui and Ronnie O'Sullivan. When those two are in form, they are undoubtly two of the five or six best players in the world. Sadly for them this hasn't been the case for most of this season as well. On the one-year list Ronnie is only 19th, while Ding is sixth, which he owes almost exclusively to his one great performance this season, when he won the UK Championship. Otherwise he would be in Bingham territory. But at least you can say that this was a vital sign of the Chinese and showed that he still is capable of winning big titles, after already his last season was pretty bad. After a renaissance between 2016 and 2018 Ding has sadly lost his class again. Will he find it at the Crucible of all things? In the past he hasn't liked playing here too much. He reached the final in 2016 and has two more semifinals. A resume that is far too weak for a player of his class.
There's another question behind Ding's and O'Sullivan's name. Cause both had a very long pause. Neither played at the Tour Championship or even the Championship League. After the first match I think this wouldn't play a big role any more, but it could so in the first round. And if Ding finds himself in a close fight with Mark King this could be tough, especially as Junhui's World Championship history shows he's prone to early losses...

This wasn't true for Ronnie O'Sullivan. Between 2004 and 2017 he only lost twice before the quarterfinals, but now it happened to him twice in a row and in unexpected matches. His 2018 loss against Ali Carter still can happen, but his exit last year against James Cahill was a big shocker of course. I would say the lack of play isn't a problem for him actually. He has always taken his time off and come back strong, most notably obviously in his famous fifth world title in 2013, when he only entered four events the whole season.
A bit more worrying is his first round opponent. Cause in Thepchaiya Un-Nooh the 44-year-old drew one of the most uncomfortable opponents possible. Remember: The Thai was mostly just one unlucky split away from beating Judd Trump in the opener last year - which just shows how much one shot can alternate the course of snooker history. Actually I can imagine though that this dangerous draw could be good for O'Sullivan. He has faced tough openers in the past and succeded. I think that's because he is much more focussed then. If Un-Nooh wins he could go further, since he seems lately to have gained at least a bit more of consistency.
O'Sullivan also has a good history against Ding, though the Chinese won their meeting in Sheffield in 2017 in a great match from both of them. But back then this was one of two Dings best World Championships and his two last starts at the Crucible he was again looking like he would suffer from the burden of one billion of Chinese expecting the title of him. Maybe having only 300 spectators will help Ding also? I really hope we get to see Ding vs. O'Sullivan in the second round and I'd make the winner of it the favourite for the semifinal spot here.

FOURTH QUARTER
Selby - Brown
Murphy - Saengkham
Hawkins - Ursenbacher
Robertson - Liang

The best is reserved for the last is a german figure of speech and it fits here. Cause the last quarter to me is the strongest of the draw. Here we have world number two Neil Robertson, Shaun Murphy, who was the second best player this season and the three times champion Mark Selby. And, you could add, Barry Hawkins, who made the semifinal at five of his last seven appearances here.

If there is something worrying about Neil Robertson it's his results in events with longer matches this season. He lost early at the UK Championship as well as in the chinese tournaments. But therefore he won the China Open last season. And all in all it has to be said that after being a bit down around 2016 and 2017 he has raised his game again and his confidence along with it. There was a short period, in which, while not questioning his overall ability, as I still think he is one of the best players on the circuit, I didn't count Robertson among the favourites of some tournaments (though I think I once picked him as a winner at the Crucible, cause I think he's overdue for at least another final). These days are over though and Robertson to me is one of the big contenders this year. He has a tricky first rounder against Liang Wenbo, but while the Chinese can play very good, he seldomly does and his temper isn't always helpful. Other than his two opening losses against Michael Holt in 2016 and Robert Milkins in 2018 it needed mostly a strong performance to knock Robbo out of the crucible. Liang will have to play much better than in the qualifying.

A potential second round match would be against Barry Hawkins. The two fought one of my favourite crucible matches over the last few years in the quarterfinal of 2015, when Hawkins prevailed 13-12 in a match that included eight centuries. Hawkins has made a habit of not having much of success during the season and then showing up in top form at the Crucible, playing brilliant snooker. But usually he still had the odd good result, featuring most of the time one or two semifinals or finals. This season his highlight has been a quarterfinal at the World Open. This shows on the one-year-list, where he was just the 30th best player this season. And also in the world ranking, where Hawkins slipped down onto being 20th currently. He will need to make at least the quarterfinals to stay within the Top 16. I wouldn't really include him in the contenders this year and I think that even a first round exit against Alexander Ursenbacher is possible, but given his success at Sheffield this decade I felt bad not including him among the red names and after all Hawkins IS still a very strong player, when hitting all the right notes.

Only once have Mark Selby and Shaun Murphy met in the Crucible. The result in this semifinal nailbiter of the 2007 World Championship was a tense and classy 17-16 for Selby after trailing 14-16, a result which was a surprise back then, as Murphy had already won the big title, while Selby was a newcomer. About time they meet again, isn't it? This is a potential second rounder I'd really love to see.
Much has changed since 2007. Selby is now by far the more successful of the two players, but right now, even if it might be only of short notice in a few years again (who knows which direction their careers will take?) the tables have turned again for the moment. Cause during the current season Murphy was the better player. Both won two titles, but Selby's came only at the English and the Scottish Open, while Murphy won a third one of the home nation series, the Welsh Open, but also the China Championship, where he beat Selby 6-3 in the semifinal. Murphy also added a final at the International Championship, which by number of frames was the most important tournament this year. Selby at least was in the semis there, but lost heavily to Trump.
I'd still say that in his best form Selby is probably the best player there is. Cause he scores as good as any other player and has an unparalleled safety game. But we haven't seen him in top form since the 2017 World Championship probably. And much of it is cause his safety game is a step down from his earlier standard. His B-Game is still good enough for good results as we can see and it should proof to tough for Jordan Brown. But right now in the potential duel with Murphy I'd make the 2005 World Champion probably the favourite. He has the trickier opener though. Noppon Saengkham hasn't had a good season, but in the past has shown glimpses of that he can play well, most notable at the 2018 World Open, when he made the semifinal. Also the World Number 42 played at the Crucible before contrary to Brown.
Regardless who would win a second-round clash between Selby and Murphy - if this match even happens - it would only be the first step. Cause it's likely Robertson or Hawkins after that and than maybe O'Sullivan in the semifinal....

My picks at the Crucible have been bad lately. I think I picked Selby for a title in 2016 or 2017 and certainly before this in 2014 (cause I think I picked him basically every year at the beginning of this decade), but I think I picked Trump in 2018 and O'Sullivan in 2019, so with seeing my chosen world champion this year you already know whom you should not bet on.

Semifinals:
Kyren Wilson - Mark Allen
Ronnie O'Sullivan - Neil Robertson

Final:
Mark Allen - Neil Robertson

Winner:
Neil Robertson

But honestly contrary to tennis, Snooker is almost always a shot into the blue.

I just hope we have a fine tournament and I would be happy if one of my favourite players (none of them I picked for the final four) wins.

[fkhan]

Anthony Hamilton has withdrawn. Does Kyren get a bye or will someone play in place of Anthony?

https://www.eurosport.co.uk/snooker/...07/story.shtml

[Neil Taperell]

Gutted for Anthony , all that effort wasted .

[Neil Taperell]

Anthony Hamilton has withdrawn. Does Kyren get a bye or will someone play in place of Anthony?

https://www.eurosport.co.uk/snooker/...07/story.shtml

Wilson gets a bye