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Right, the World Championship starts in a day and a half, and tradition dictates that we have one of these threads... :wink:
I remember being very excited before the last two Championships, but ended up being pretty disappointed with how poorly most of the top contenders played. It's a similar situation this year, the qualifiers coming to the tournament pretty match-sharp, having played at least one big match immediately prior to the televised stage, while the seeded players have had a couple of weeks off. A lot of the players also had a couple of trips to China and back recently, and maybe that has taken its toll on some as well.
I don't think we will see as many surprises this time though. There aren't really that many dangerous qualifiers at first glance. People often talk about the changing of the guard in snooker, but the changes have been very gradual, and the top contenders pretty much remain the same from year to year. But lower down the rankings things have changed a bit. Players like Mark Williams, Graeme Dott, Matthew Stevens, Peter Ebdon, and others were ever-present at the Masters and the World Championship for over a decade, but this year none of them made it to either tournament.
It's also been a season where a couple of players won most of the major events between them, so they will all be coming to the WC full of confidence. On the other hand, a lot of strong players have failed to win anything at all, so they will be more determined than ever to have a strong WC. Surely that's the perfect combination and we are bound to get some high-quality snooker throughout the tournament. :smile:
Now let's have a quick look at some of the contenders for the World title this year...
Starting at the bottom end, as usual, with a couple of players who have no chance of winning it. Three of the four debutants immediately stand out. Michael Wasley had a terrific qualifying win over Robert Milkins, the highest-ranked player who wasn't seeded for the Crucible, winning the decider on a re-spotted black. I think I am right in saying that Wasley has never won a ranking match on TV, and this is already the furthest he has ever been in any major tournament. Unfortunately he has drawn Ding Junhui in the 1st round, one of the players everyone wanted to avoid here. Robbie Williams won his qualifying match in the same dramatic scenario, and he too has drawn a tough opponent in the 1st round here, Neil Robertson. Williams does have a bit of a claim to fame, having reached the semi-finals of the Indian Open earlier in the season, although I'm sure everyone knows my feelings about that tournament by now. Kyren Wilson has also had a notable result this season, a quarter-final in the Shanghai Masters, and I find that result somewhat more impressive, because that tournament was played under the old "tiered" system, so Wilson had to beat the likes of Stuart Bingham and Marco Fu to get to that stage. It's a great achievement in itself for all of these players to get to the Crucible, but it's tough to see them doing much.
Looking at the more experienced players, Robin Hull is a big outsider as well. He wasn't doing too badly when he initially had to retire from the game due to health problems, so it's nice to see him back playing well. He stopped Peter Ebdon's remarkable run of Crucible appearances in the qualifiers, but I think that's as far as he is likely to get, because he doesn't really play the kind of game that could cause problems for Ronnie O'Sullivan in the 1st round. I don't expect Jamie Burnett to do much here either. He reached the final of the Shanghai Masters in 2010, but has never really repeated that performance, and the best we have seen from him this season was a decent run in the UK Championship and the German Masters. He hasn't drawn one of the really top players here, but at some point he would have to play one, and he seems to get outclassed in that situation more often than not.
The other qualifiers are a bit more dangerous, but there are a couple we can safely rule out. David Gilbert will be making his third appearance at the Crucible, but he is not really coming here on the back of any great form. His best result this season is the last16 of the Wuxi Classic way back in June. He is a very good breakbuilder, and he has won a match at the Crucible before, but he doesn't really have the complete game or the experience to challenge for the title. Tom Ford is a similar player, also with a good performance at the start of the season, a quarter-final in the Australian Open. He has been playing the role of a dangerous qualifier for quite a few years now, but he has never really made much of an impact in any tournament, and that's particularly true of the WC.
A couple of veterans are back as well. Dominic Dale is a former Shanghai Masters champion, and the current Shoot-Out champion, but those successes are not particularly relevant for his chances here. He too reached the quarter-finals in Australia, in a slightly weaker field, and he has played some decent snooker in other events as well, but he hasn't really been able to string a few good matches together. Mark Davis in not the toughest draw he could have got, so it wouldn't be that surprising if he got past the 1st round. I am sure he will be entertaining in any case, but he is not really a World title contender. Ken Doherty is not anymore either, the 1997 World champion. He has been in pretty dreadful form for most of the last five years or so, and this is already his best run of the season, but he does have more experience than most players here. He also played pretty well in the qualifiers, at one point making seven half-centuries in a row against Dechawat Poomjaeng. It's doubtful whether he can reproduce that sort of form on TV though. Alan McManus has been appearing on TV quite often in the past two seasons, and he often plays quite well. He got to the quarter-finals of the World Open a month ago, and he beat a couple of good players on his way, so he is still capable of a good run or two. He too has all the experience he needs at the Crucible, but of course he doesn't really have the firepower anymore at this stage of his career.
Jamie Cope seems to have lost his as well, even though he is still fairly young. But even if he somehow found his best form again, I am still not convinced he could have challenged for the title. He just doesn't seem to have much fight in him. His last match at the Crucible was the 2nd round against Mark Williams in 2011, where he lost 13-4 without ever looking dangerous. The year before he lost 10-4 to Ali Carter, also looking defeated pretty early in the match. He has done nothing all season, so I was a bit surprised to see him qualify at all. It's a good sign in any case. After all, this is a player who reached two ranking finals back in the 2006/2007 season, and he played that really great match against John Higgins at the Crucible in 2009, pushing him all the way to a decider in the 2nd round. It would be nice to see him playing like that again, but unfortunately his last couple of matches on TV have been pretty pathetic. And that includes the one against Murphy in the China Open a couple of weeks ago, so it's tough to see him beating Murphy here. Michael White is another fairly disappointing player. I'm sure many expected him to build on last year's success at the Crucible, where he reached the quarter-finals, but he has only been past the 2nd round once this season, in the short-format event in India. Form certainly doesn't suggest he could do anything here, but who knows, maybe the long matches will bring out the best in him again.
At this point I would also rule out Michael Holt, despite his good performances this season. It has been the most successful season of his career so far, his first major semi-final appearance in the Shanghai Masters, and a good run to the quarter-finals of the German Masters as well, but he wasn't really close to winning those tournaments, so what chance does he have in the WC? He has never done anything notable at the Crucible, despite playing there six times in the past. Xiao Guodong was the player that beat him in Shanghai, on his way to his first major final. He is making his debut at the Crucible, but he immediately finds himself among the most dangerous qualifiers anyway. His match against Ali Carter should be one of the most interesting of the 1st round, especially as they have never played before. Xiao hasn't just had the one good run this season, he followed it up with a quarter-final in the German Masters and some other decent results as well. He has shown himself to be a good fighter, coming back from behind in a couple of matches in Shanghai, and he scores very well when he is on form. Winning the World title would be a shock, but getting through a couple of rounds not so much...
There are another two dangerous qualifiers I would rule out. Ryan Day has had a fairly good season, his best since 2009/2010. He has climbed back up the rankings a bit again, close to the top16, helped mostly by runs to the quarter-finals of the International Championship and the semi-finals of the German Masters this season. But like Cope, I wouldn't really fancy Day for the title even if he completely regained his form. His scoring game is a match for anyone, but his tactical game isn't, and he isn't exactly known for playing his best under pressure. He has already reached the quarter-finals of the WC three times in his career, but a fourth here seems unlikely, especially with the draw he got in the 1st round. Stephen Maguire wouldn't be the worst case scenario for most players, but Day has a pretty dreadful record against him, one of the worst in all of snooker. Martin Gould came through a tough qualifying draw, beating Liang Wenbo in the final qualifying round, and he did play very well in parts of that match. He is one of the best potters in the game on his day, and a pretty good scorer as well, but unfortunately he often seems to find ways to lose matches in spite of his good play, and he has been known to bottle it pretty badly at times. I don't think the top players see him as a strong rival for the title, but I'm sure no one wants to be particularly close to him in the draw either, because he can be very dangerous in single matches. His match against Marco Fu here is surely one of the best prospects of the 1st round. They met for two years in a row in 2010 and 2011, and Gould came out on top both times.
Moving on to the seeded players, Mark Davis is probably the weakest, and one of only two who have not won a major title in their career. He has had a reasonably consistent season, with three major quarter-finals, but in two of those he was beaten by players ranked lower than him, so he will maybe feel like things could have gone even better for him. He is pretty solid in every element of the game, from scoring to tactics and pressure play, so he is tough to beat when he plays well. But at the same time he is not really exceptional at anything, so he will always be second favourite against the really top players, and it's tough to see him beating players like Ding or O'Sullivan over three or four sessions. Joe Perry is back as a seeded player at the Crucible as well, enjoying his best-ever season. He has reached two major ranking semi-finals and three quarter-finals in addition to that, and there are not many players with a better record than that. He also won a PTC title in China at the start of the season. It reminds me a lot of Stephen Lee's purple patch two seasons ago. Perry is also a former semi-finalist in the WC, back in 2008, so he has all the experience he needs to do well here. But like Davis, his best has never really been good enough to win him titles, even though his game doesn't really have a major weakness. He has also been unlucky to land in O'Sullivan's section of the draw here, and that may just be a little too tough for him at this point in time.
That leaves the 14 players who, in my opinion, have at least an outside chance of winning this title...
Let's start with Allister Carter, already a finalist in this event on two occasions. He has had his share of problems in recent times... He was diagnosed with testicular cancer at the start of the season, on top of his ongoing problems with Crohn's disease, so it's understandable that we didn't see much of him in the first part of the season. In fact, his recent run to the semi-finals of the China Open has been his only notable run in a major ranking event all season. A couple of early exits and missed tournaments put him out of the top16 for the Masters, but he is back as a seeded player here. I don't think there has been any decline in his technical ability from the time when he was in the top4, not so long ago actually, so there is no doubt a healthy Carter is better than his current ranking suggests. He has reached another semi-final on top of those two finals at the Crucible, all in the fairly recent past, so he has a pretty impressive record at the venue, kind of like Matthew Stevens in the past. His two bogey players have been Ronnie O'Sullivan and Neil Robertson, beating him five times in the last six years between them, but neither is close to him in the draw this year. He has a tough 1st round match against Xiao Guodong though. In his first run to the final in 2008 he played his signature attacking game, with high scoring and great potting from distance, while in 2012 he got to the final with quite a cautious and a very disciplined approach, under the mentorship of Peter Ebdon. If he could find the best of both approaches here, he would be very dangerous. The couple of times he has faced the top players this season he hasn't had much success, but he wasn't really at his best. Can he find his best form here? And will his health allow him to maintain it for 17 days?
I think most people would be surprised if Ricky Walden won this title, but I don't think anyone would be surprised to see him at the business end again. He was a semi-finalist last year, his first run of any note in this tournament, but he did beat three unseeded players on his way, so there is still a question whether he can beat the top players in the longer matches. He lost to Barry Hawkins in a close match in the semi-finals, then beat him 6-5 in the 1st round of the Masters this season, and they could meet again in the 2nd round here. Like Carter, Walden hasn't had a great season either. The highlight for him was reaching the semi-finals of the UK Championship, with a decent but not spectacular performance. He didn't show much form after that, until the China Open, where he was beaten by Carter in the quarter-finals. He plays a pretty weird game sometimes, ranging from fluent one-visit stuff to not being able to put much together, all within a short period. It's easy to see him dominating a session against anyone in the world, but unfortunately equally easy to see him struggling at some point during a long tournament such as this. It happened last year against Robert Milkins, and again against Hawkins just at the wrong time, ultimately costing him the match. But when he plays well he doesn't have an obvious weakness, and he doesn't get too nervy under pressure either. He has won two major ranking titles in his career, both in China, so he knows how to win, and he also knows what it's like to play in the one-table setup at the Crucible now.
Stuart Bingham doesn't have that experience yet, and is probably the best player you can say that about. He too has only had one really good result in the major ranking events this season, the semi-finals of the UK Championship, where he joined a pretty elite group of players to beat Ronnie O'Sullivan in a major event in recent times. He produced an impressive fightback from 8-3 down against Neil Robertson in the semi-finals, ultimately lost the match in the decider, but showed exactly the kind of fighting qualities you need over the longer matches in the WC. He hasn't reached the quarter-final stage of any other ranking event this season, so you could say his season hasn't been as successful as the previous two, but still not a bad one by any means. He has done enough to get himself up to 5th place in the rankings, the highest he has ever been. He was the runner-up in the inaugural Champion of Champions event, pushing O'Sullivan pretty close in the final. He also added another PTC title, his third one in China, which is pretty impressive, considering the Asian PTCs were only introduced last season. He generally seems to play his best snooker abroad, in China and Australia rather than the UK, so that could work against him here. A couple of years ago it would have seemed ridiculous that Bingham could be the World champion, and I guess it would still be a big surprise now, but he has earned the right to be taken seriously. He's got himself into the top8 in the world, and no one can accuse him of not playing to a standard that ranking demands. He has done it pretty nonchalantly, with a smile on his face, and win or lose, I expect he will enjoy this tournament as well.
Mark Allen certainly didn't enjoy his last two visits to the Crucible, losing in the 1st round for two years in a row. But maybe he will feel like he has a point to prove, and that could inspire him to a good performance here. He pulled out of the China Open a couple of weeks ago, clearly wanting to maximize his chances in this tournament. His best result in the WC remains the semi-final in 2009, when he was still seen as a dangerous outsider rather than a top contender. He has since won two ranking titles, the World Open in 2011 and 2012, but inconsistency has seen him drop down the rankings a bit again, and he has only just got in as the 15th seed. Unfortunately for him, that puts him in arguably the toughest quarter of the draw, with a possible match against Neil Robertson in the 2nd round. They've played quite a few times in recent years, and Allen is not winning that rivalry at the moment, having lost to Robertson in the Masters for three years in a row now. The World Open was his best tournament this season as well, he got through a very tough draw to reach the semi-finals, where he lost to Shaun Murphy. He was also a quarter-finalist in the UK Championship, but that was a somewhat less impressive performance, particularly the last16 match against Judd Trump. Allen doesn't really have a strong B-game, not the kind that would consistently get him to the business end of tournaments anyway, but the thing that makes him so dangerous is how strong his A-game is. He is capable of prolonged periods of high scoring, can pot his way out of trouble, and he doesn't seem to get involved in too much tactics and safety. He doesn't easily give up when he goes a couple of frames behind, and he seems to enjoy the big stage. Could it be his year?
Stephen Maguire once said he wanted to win the World title before he turned 30, otherwise he would feel like time was running out for him, and that would put him under pressure in the WC. Well, things have gone pretty badly for him in that respect. He is 33 now, and he has not only failed to win it, but also dropped out of the top8 this year, and is no longer one of the big title contenders. Will that put him under even more pressure, or will he relax now that people don't really expect him to win it anymore? He pulled out of the China Open at the last minute as well, and like Allen, he too lost in the 1st round last year, 10-9 to Dechawat Poomjaeng. It must have been frustrating to lose to an opponent who couldn't keep it going after that win, while Maguire himself could have probably done well in that quarter of the draw. This year he has landed in a much tougher quarter, with a possible match against Judd Trump in the 2nd round and then Robertson in the quarter-finals, but he does have one of the best records against Trump, so maybe he won't be too concerned. Does he have the form to do any damage here? He hasn't had a lot of success this season, apart from a semi-final in the short-format Indian Open and a quarter-final in the UK Championship. He also reached the semi-finals of the Masters, where he lost 6-2 to Ronnie O'Sullivan. In a way that match showed exactly what the problem with Maguire is... He opened with an excellent break in the first frame, and instead of gaining confidence and pushing on, like a Robertson or an Allen would have done, Maguire pretty much fell apart the moment something went against him, and he never looked like winning the match from then on. He takes bad mental approach to the extreme, like banging the table when he had a ten-frame lead against Hendry in 2012, and he carried it over to the next match against Carter as well and lost comfortably. His best chance to win the World title was probably in 2007, when he led John Higgins 14-10 in the semi-finals, but lost it in the final session. He was looking good again the following year, but underestimated Joe Perry and lost 13-12 in the quarter-finals. His technical ability is not really in question, so for him it's mostly about mental strength and discipline. He got it right in the Welsh Open last year, his most recent ranking title, so it is possible. But of course he needs to back it up with some form on the table as well.
Moving on to the players with a more realistic chance of winning the title...
We certainly can't overlook Barry Hawkins, the world number four, playing the best snooker of his career over the last couple of seasons. If he won the World title this year it would be from a similar position as Graeme Dott in 2006. He has reached a World final, climbed up the rankings, and established himself as a contender for any title. Last season he won the Australian Open, this season he added the PTC Finals as well. It wasn't a big tournament in terms of ranking points, or even prestige, but it did have a big top prize, and it put Hawkins in a position where he could afford to skip the China Open. He also had good runs in the Shanghai Masters, the UK Championship and the Welsh Open, so he is definitely coming here as one of the in-form players this season. He is another one of those players who pretty much have the complete game when they are playing well. I don't have the statistics, but I would be surprised if any player in the world plays as many deciders as Hawkins. He often finds a way to make a match of it from behind, but unfortunately he lets his opponents back into the match when he goes ahead quite often as well. He would probably be involved in a couple of close and tense matches just to reach the business end, and of course that requires a lot of physical and mental strength, whereas players who can win matches more "easily" could be fresher when it really matters. Hawkins also doesn't have the luxury of being an outsider anymore, at least not in his quarter of the draw, so he will be expected to come through the first couple of rounds. But it certainly won't be easy, with the likes of Walden next to him in the draw.
Judd Trump is probably pretty low on some people's list this year, but I wouldn't underestimate him. He was pretty awful in the first half of the season, losing early in every major event, but he has slowly got better as the season's gone on and has played some decent stuff at times. He was involved in a really high-quality match with Xiao Guodong in the UK Championship, with five centuries made between the players, but for some reason he played really poorly against Mark Allen in the following round and failed to reach the business end. It finally happened for him in the German Masters, where he played really well to reach the final, but ultimately came up short against a very strong Ding Junhui. The rest of his season was mainly ruined by John Higgins, who beat him twice in close matches, including a sensational comeback from 4-0 down in the World Open. Disappointing season, considering Trump managed to win a really big title in both of the previous two, the UK Championship in 2011 and the International Championship in 2012. He has only one more chance to win anything major this season... A reason for optimism could be the fact that Trump was one of the very few top players not to disappoint in last year's Championship. He played strong sessions at the right time against Fu and Murphy, and he could be good again over the long matches, where there is time for him to find his one-visit form. His scoring hasn't been consistent for a while, and if you think back to his semi-final against O'Sullivan last year, it was his scoring that lost him the match. He seemed to be in first in almost every frame, but kept breaking down on 30. The BBC had their silly kick counter, and it was something like 10-0 to Trump at one point, but I'm not sure if that was a true reflection of what was happening, or just the graphics guy seeing what he wanted to see. In any case, good scoring could have turned that convincing defeat into a comfortable victory, so that is definitely an element he will want to improve. One would also think that the long pots will have to be going in for him, like they were in 2011. He also has a pretty good record against the majority of his most dangerous opponents, the obvious exceptions being John Higgins, who is in the same half but not the same quarter, and Stephen Maguire, who is his most likely opponent in the 2nd round here. Trump has landed in the toughest quarter as it is, and it's even worse with his bogey player so close to him. He should be winning matches like that if he wants to win the title though, and he can quietly get through the rounds while all the hype is still on O'Sullivan.
Marco Fu surely has to be considered one of the favourites as well. He has been in good form for most of the season, especially in the first half when he won the Australian Open and pushed an in-form Ding to a decider in the final of the International Championship. He has played alright in recent months as well, reaching another quarter-final in the Welsh Open and a semi-final in the World Open. His consistency has improved dramatically over the last two seasons, so he no longer follows a good tournament with two bad ones. He is one of the best scorers in the game, usually playing with great finesse around the pink and black spot, but other elements of his game seem to come and go with form. He was unlucky to come up against an in-from Trump early on last year, and I guess you could say he is unlucky with the draw here. He has already lost to Martin Gould twice at the Crucible, and Murphy is probably the toughest player he could have drawn in the 2nd round at this point in time, as a top8 seed. He has quite a bad record against him as well, including a 13-3 defeat to him in this tournament a couple of years ago. The winner of that match could go on to play Ronnie O'Sullivan in the quarter-finals, so it only gets tougher. But Fu does have a good record against O'Sullivan, and in fact seems to raise his game against a lot of the top players, so this tournament should be right up his alley. It hasn't always been in the past though... He has played in the one-table setup at the Crucible before, in 2006 when he lost to Peter Ebdon in the semi-finals, but he hasn't been past the 2nd round since then. The thing is, there is always a worry with him that he could play a bad session, and when Fu plays badly he can really have a nightmare, and he usually does more damage than he can later recover. But he is one of only five players to win a major tournament this season, outside of the short-format stuff, so he has to fancy his chances here.
Shaun Murphy, on the other hand, is usually quite good over multiple sessions. He can limit the damage very well whenever he struggles in a session, and he takes maximum advantage whenever he is on top. He also has that useful habit of never giving up in a match, no matter how far behind he falls. There are two ways of looking at his results this season... On one hand, this is the first time in a decade that Murphy has failed to get to at least the quarter-finals of more than one ranking event all season. He struggled badly against the top players last season, losing three times as many matches as he won, and that record continued in the first part of this season. He had some good moments in the Masters, in getting to the semi-finals, but even that finished on a bad note with a heavy defeat to Mark Selby. Looking at the positives, Murphy's win in the World Open was his first major title in more than five years, the first with matches of at least medium length anyway. He has also started beating the top players again now, and that's something he will definitely need to do if he is to win the World title again. As I said earlier, he has had the better of Fu more often than not in the past, but his record against O'Sullivan is more suspect. In fact, he is one of the few top players to have never beaten him in a really big match, apart from that Premier League final perhaps. But to be fair, they have not played much over the years. Their biggest match was probably the 2nd round of the 2011 WC, O'Sullivan winning 13-10 on that occasion. Does Murphy have the bottle to hold his own against O'Sullivan in a three-session match here? One thing in his favour, compared to every other player of his generation apart from Neil Robertson, is the fact that he has won the WC before, so he is not under such pressure to win it again. He has a strong record in this tournament, with six appearances in the quarter-finals and beyond in the last nine years, and it would be no surprise to see him at the business end again.
John Higgins has kind of a weird record in the WC. He reached at least the quarter-finals for eight consecutive years between 1996 and 2003, and only won it once. In the next ten years he went out in the 1st or 2nd round seven times, but the three times he got through he went on to win the title. I know a lot of people doubt Higgins' chances of winning the WC again, but it's not exactly a long time ago that he was the best player in the world, and he has won this title three times in the last seven years, so I'm sure no one will be underestimating him. A year ago I talked about Higgins losing the killer instinct a bit, with the way he lost his matches against Mark Davis in the UK, against Murphy in the Masters and against Robert Milkins in the China Open, and unfortunately it's been the same at times this season. He had a lot of chances to beat Maguire in the Champion of Champions, but somehow managed to lose the match 4-3. He was in command against Selby in the Masters, but again lost 6-5, although to be fair to him, he did have two kicks when he was in the balls in the last two frames. Excellent play under pressure has been such a strong element of his game over the years, and it has contributed a lot to his success, so it's hard to imagine him winning another World title without it. Things started to turn around for him in the second half of the season, first with that win over Trump in the decider in the Welsh Open, and then his win against Trump from 4-0 down in the World Open. Those five frames were some of the best snooker anyone has played all season, but of course it was only half a session. He will need it for a lot longer here... He will be approaching two years without a major title with the start of next season, and he only played one really good tournament in that period, the Wuxi Classic this season, where he lost to a very strong Neil Robertson in the final. But Higgins has had droughts like this before in his career, and he always seems to come back stronger than ever. He got to a couple of quarter-finals recently, so maybe he is getting back some of his consistency, and I am finally getting the feeling that it will take a good performance to knock him out of this tournament. Not only is his B-game very hard to beat, he has won World titles with it, and his A-game comes just about as close to perfect snooker as it's possible. But does he still have it?
Mark Selby is at an age where he almost certainly still has it, but he too hasn't shown it in a while. He was one of the biggest disappointments in the WC in the last two years, struggling with a neck injury in 2012 and not playing anywhere near well enough in 2013, so he kind of has a point to prove this year. For a struggling player, he has been remarkably consistent this season. He reached at least the quarter-finals of eight out of ten tournaments with matches of medium length, more than anyone else in the world. Last season he scrapped his way to the UK and the Masters title, this season he scrapped his way to both finals again, but ultimately lost to in-form players both times. He also got to the final of the World Open, where he was beaten 10-6 by Shaun Murphy. He is incredibly tough to beat in close and scrappy matches, especially as the pressure increases, and he is not beaten even when he falls a long way behind, so the long matches here should be to his advantage. But as good as his "average" form is, it's hard to win the World title without any fluency, although Graeme Dott and Neil Robertson weren't exactly on fire either when they won it. Selby is certainly capable of scoring heavily, like he did against Hendry in 2010 and 2011, when he blew him away with a string of centuries. He also scored superbly on his way to the final here in 2007. He has the class and the experience, it's just a question whether he can back it up with a bit of form. He hasn't won a major title this season, so no one will be more determined to do well here, and he should still have something left in the tank, physically as well as emotionally. He is under pressure to win it sooner rather than later though, having turned 30 this season, so he might start looking at things the way Maguire does. He has a lot of mental strength and the kind of game that will probably allow him to challenge for titles for quite a few years yet, but it will be getting tougher each year. He is in the same quarter as Higgins, the player who denied him in 2009 when Selby was playing really well, so it definitely won't be easy this time, but I think an in-form Selby can hold his own against anyone in the world.
That only leaves the three best players in the world at this point in time. They have been by far the best players of the season so far, winning nine of the eleven biggest tournaments between them, so they will rightly be seen as the three big favourites for the World title this year...
Let's start with Ronnie O'Sullivan, the defending World Champion once again, after an already successful title defence last year. He is probably a bigger favourite for the title this year than anyone has been for many years, probably since 2005 when he came to the WC on the back of arguably his best-ever season. His record in the WC over the last decade is excellent, he failed to reach the business end of the tournament only once in that time, and even then it was not exactly a disgrace to lose to Mark Allen in the 2nd round. He has established a huge psychological advantage over most of his main opposition in the last two seasons or so, even though he hasn't really played a lot. He basically won the Champion of Champions with his B-game, beating Ding and Robertson in the process. He then played his A-game in the Masters and only dropped a few frames all week, and he won the Welsh Open in style as well, trashing a nervy Ding in the final. The setbacks have been few, losing to Bingham in the quarter-finals of the UK Championship was one of them I suppose, and he played pretty poorly in the International Championship as well, losing to Liang Wenbo from 4-1 up. I think the most encouraging thing is that he has played properly all season, apart from a little mad moment in the German Masters qualifiers. He has shown great willingness to compete in the safety battles, mostly coming out on top in them, and he seems to enjoy the frames where it's not all about breakbuilding more and more. But of course the breakbuilding is still the element that usually makes the difference in his favour. He is still the best scorer in the world, maybe not by far, but he can keep it going whenever he is challenged, while most other players fall apart the moment O'Sullivan applies any pressure. Another thing in his favour is a pretty good draw, which he is entitled to as the 1st seed of course. He won't like seeing Marco Fu in his quarter, but other than that, I'm sure he is happy to be in the same half as Ding, Walden and Hawkins, three players he gave a good beating to recently. The more "problematic" players such as Selby, Higgins, Robertson, maybe Trump, are all in the other half. He should have plenty of time to play himself into the tournament, and he usually grows stronger with every round. So, is there any way to stop him winning the title? Well, as I said earlier, he was just as a big a favourite in 2005, and got knocked out in the quarter-finals. He has played in 21 World Championships in his career, was the favourite in a lot of them, and at least among the favourites in almost all of them, but he has "only" won it five times, so he is by no means invincible. He is the king of dominating sessions and winning them 8-0 or 7-1, but he has also had sessions where nothing was going for him and he just kept losing frame after frame. There is no way to escape from the Crucible when you go into a crisis, and when O'Sullivan wants out of a match, he doesn't really think about limiting the damage. Also, he may be an extremely good snooker player, but that doesn't make him a magician, and form comes and goes with him just like with any other player. I don't think O'Sullivan will "lose" it this year though, someone else will have to win it.
Neil Robertson is certainly capable of doing just that. He comes to the WC as the reigning UK Champion, having completed the "triple crown" in December, adding the UK title to his 2010 World title and 2012 Masters title. That only puts him behind O'Sullivan and Higgins in what he has achieved in snooker over the last decade. He is also the current world number one, and has a chance to remain so with a strong performance here. His other achievements this season include the Wuxi Classic title and the finals of the Australian and the China Open. He used to be pretty inconsistent in the early part of his career, playing a couple of mediocre tournaments for every good one, but now he seems to be in good form all the time. The problem is, he came to the WC on the back of an equally good season last year, but this was the one tournament he disappointed in, losing to Robert Milkins in the 1st round. This time he has drawn one of the easier qualifiers on paper, but looking beyond the 1st round, he is the big loser out of the top4 seeds, having landed in the toughest quarter of the draw. I'm sure he would agree he had a very favourable draw when he won the World title in 2010, playing qualifiers in every round except one, but this time he will almost certainly have to do it the hard way. One thing that will be on everyone's mind is his quest to make a 100 centuries this season... He is currently on 93, so one would think he needs to get through a couple of rounds to make the seven he needs. He only made seven in five matches when he won in 2010, so it's not as easy as it sounds, and I think that could be some extra pressure on him in the early rounds. It's a great reflection of his scoring ability this season though. He is pretty strong in other elements of the game as well, particularly under pressure, and he doesn't give up easily. He was in very poor health during the China Open, but still battled through a couple of deciders and close matches to reach the final. He is in a similar position to Shaun Murphy, having already won a World title, so he is not under as much pressure as some of the other contenders here. But that could be a bad thing for Robertson, because he seems to thrive on pressure, and he loves a good challenge. If we are really determined to find a problem with his game, one thing could be some of the weird shot choices in close matches, when he refuses to go for attacking shots and spends ages looking at all of his options. A perfect example was the decider of his match against Marco Fu in the World Open, when he had an easy red to the middle, but literally stood at the table for three minutes thinking about how to get position on the blue, even though it wasn't particularly complicated. I think the break time was over seven minutes when he had only potted three balls, and that can't have helped his chances in that frame. Of course he went on to lose it on the black. He went pretty defensive against Mark Selby in the UK final as well, but started going for more shots at 5-1 down and turned the match around completely. He just needs to keep it simple and believe in himself, and as long as his illness is behind him, he should be fine.
And let's conclude with Ding Junhui... He has had a tremendous season, the best anyone has had since O'Sullivan in 2004/2005. He has won four "standard" ranking events, the Shanghai Masters, the International Championship, the German Masters and the China Open, and he won the short-format Indian Open as well. He has won the title almost every time he's got through the early rounds, the obvious exception being his defeat to O'Sullivan in the final of the Welsh Open, but that's hardly a disgrace. Let's start with a couple of his weaknesses... His poor record at the WC obviously. He has got past the 2nd round only twice in his career so far, in 2011 when he played really well to reach the semi-finals, and last year when he lost to Barry Hawkins in the quarter-finals. He has a habit of starting matches slowly, like the one against Mark King last year, and he puts himself under pressure as a result. He will also most likely have to play O'Sullivan to win the title this year. The last time he beat him in a major match was in the final of the 2006 Northern Ireland Trophy, eight years ago now. He has lost their following six matches, including a couple of really one-sided ones. He looked really nervous right from the start in the Welsh Open final, missed all kinds of balls, and his safety left him down as well. But I guess their Champion of Champions match should give him a bit of confidence. He took command of the match and got himself to a 5-3 lead, before O'Sullivan had an outrageous fluke on a poor safety which would have left Ding in for the match. Ding was also on a break of 50 in the decider, played the split pretty well but finished on nothing, and later lost the frame and match on the colours. On the positive side, his record in deciders and close matches has been excellent this season. I've lost count of how many times Ding has won the key frames with a big break. His scoring has ranged from alright to superb, and at one point in the International Championship final it was looking like Hendry's record of seven centuries in a match was in danger. His finesse in the balls is almost unrivalled, and even I appreciate him as a great stylist, even though I don't unusually pay much attention to "technique". He has also played some cracking safety at times this season, and his attitude has been exemplary. Earlier in the season I described him as John Higgins' successor, in the sense that his B-game now seems to get him to the business end of most tournaments, and he usually ends up winning unless someone plays really well against him. He doesn't really do anything stupid or flashy, it's just textbook snooker. He finds himself in the same quarter as Hawkins again, but he has already beaten him twice this season, so I don't think he will be too concerned. Can he end an already incredible season on the highest note possible?
I think that's just about all I have on this subject for now. Hoping for a great tournament, and let the best man win!
Who do you guys think will win it? :wink:
I remember being very excited before the last two Championships, but ended up being pretty disappointed with how poorly most of the top contenders played. It's a similar situation this year, the qualifiers coming to the tournament pretty match-sharp, having played at least one big match immediately prior to the televised stage, while the seeded players have had a couple of weeks off. A lot of the players also had a couple of trips to China and back recently, and maybe that has taken its toll on some as well.
I don't think we will see as many surprises this time though. There aren't really that many dangerous qualifiers at first glance. People often talk about the changing of the guard in snooker, but the changes have been very gradual, and the top contenders pretty much remain the same from year to year. But lower down the rankings things have changed a bit. Players like Mark Williams, Graeme Dott, Matthew Stevens, Peter Ebdon, and others were ever-present at the Masters and the World Championship for over a decade, but this year none of them made it to either tournament.
It's also been a season where a couple of players won most of the major events between them, so they will all be coming to the WC full of confidence. On the other hand, a lot of strong players have failed to win anything at all, so they will be more determined than ever to have a strong WC. Surely that's the perfect combination and we are bound to get some high-quality snooker throughout the tournament. :smile:
Now let's have a quick look at some of the contenders for the World title this year...
Starting at the bottom end, as usual, with a couple of players who have no chance of winning it. Three of the four debutants immediately stand out. Michael Wasley had a terrific qualifying win over Robert Milkins, the highest-ranked player who wasn't seeded for the Crucible, winning the decider on a re-spotted black. I think I am right in saying that Wasley has never won a ranking match on TV, and this is already the furthest he has ever been in any major tournament. Unfortunately he has drawn Ding Junhui in the 1st round, one of the players everyone wanted to avoid here. Robbie Williams won his qualifying match in the same dramatic scenario, and he too has drawn a tough opponent in the 1st round here, Neil Robertson. Williams does have a bit of a claim to fame, having reached the semi-finals of the Indian Open earlier in the season, although I'm sure everyone knows my feelings about that tournament by now. Kyren Wilson has also had a notable result this season, a quarter-final in the Shanghai Masters, and I find that result somewhat more impressive, because that tournament was played under the old "tiered" system, so Wilson had to beat the likes of Stuart Bingham and Marco Fu to get to that stage. It's a great achievement in itself for all of these players to get to the Crucible, but it's tough to see them doing much.
Looking at the more experienced players, Robin Hull is a big outsider as well. He wasn't doing too badly when he initially had to retire from the game due to health problems, so it's nice to see him back playing well. He stopped Peter Ebdon's remarkable run of Crucible appearances in the qualifiers, but I think that's as far as he is likely to get, because he doesn't really play the kind of game that could cause problems for Ronnie O'Sullivan in the 1st round. I don't expect Jamie Burnett to do much here either. He reached the final of the Shanghai Masters in 2010, but has never really repeated that performance, and the best we have seen from him this season was a decent run in the UK Championship and the German Masters. He hasn't drawn one of the really top players here, but at some point he would have to play one, and he seems to get outclassed in that situation more often than not.
The other qualifiers are a bit more dangerous, but there are a couple we can safely rule out. David Gilbert will be making his third appearance at the Crucible, but he is not really coming here on the back of any great form. His best result this season is the last16 of the Wuxi Classic way back in June. He is a very good breakbuilder, and he has won a match at the Crucible before, but he doesn't really have the complete game or the experience to challenge for the title. Tom Ford is a similar player, also with a good performance at the start of the season, a quarter-final in the Australian Open. He has been playing the role of a dangerous qualifier for quite a few years now, but he has never really made much of an impact in any tournament, and that's particularly true of the WC.
A couple of veterans are back as well. Dominic Dale is a former Shanghai Masters champion, and the current Shoot-Out champion, but those successes are not particularly relevant for his chances here. He too reached the quarter-finals in Australia, in a slightly weaker field, and he has played some decent snooker in other events as well, but he hasn't really been able to string a few good matches together. Mark Davis in not the toughest draw he could have got, so it wouldn't be that surprising if he got past the 1st round. I am sure he will be entertaining in any case, but he is not really a World title contender. Ken Doherty is not anymore either, the 1997 World champion. He has been in pretty dreadful form for most of the last five years or so, and this is already his best run of the season, but he does have more experience than most players here. He also played pretty well in the qualifiers, at one point making seven half-centuries in a row against Dechawat Poomjaeng. It's doubtful whether he can reproduce that sort of form on TV though. Alan McManus has been appearing on TV quite often in the past two seasons, and he often plays quite well. He got to the quarter-finals of the World Open a month ago, and he beat a couple of good players on his way, so he is still capable of a good run or two. He too has all the experience he needs at the Crucible, but of course he doesn't really have the firepower anymore at this stage of his career.
Jamie Cope seems to have lost his as well, even though he is still fairly young. But even if he somehow found his best form again, I am still not convinced he could have challenged for the title. He just doesn't seem to have much fight in him. His last match at the Crucible was the 2nd round against Mark Williams in 2011, where he lost 13-4 without ever looking dangerous. The year before he lost 10-4 to Ali Carter, also looking defeated pretty early in the match. He has done nothing all season, so I was a bit surprised to see him qualify at all. It's a good sign in any case. After all, this is a player who reached two ranking finals back in the 2006/2007 season, and he played that really great match against John Higgins at the Crucible in 2009, pushing him all the way to a decider in the 2nd round. It would be nice to see him playing like that again, but unfortunately his last couple of matches on TV have been pretty pathetic. And that includes the one against Murphy in the China Open a couple of weeks ago, so it's tough to see him beating Murphy here. Michael White is another fairly disappointing player. I'm sure many expected him to build on last year's success at the Crucible, where he reached the quarter-finals, but he has only been past the 2nd round once this season, in the short-format event in India. Form certainly doesn't suggest he could do anything here, but who knows, maybe the long matches will bring out the best in him again.
At this point I would also rule out Michael Holt, despite his good performances this season. It has been the most successful season of his career so far, his first major semi-final appearance in the Shanghai Masters, and a good run to the quarter-finals of the German Masters as well, but he wasn't really close to winning those tournaments, so what chance does he have in the WC? He has never done anything notable at the Crucible, despite playing there six times in the past. Xiao Guodong was the player that beat him in Shanghai, on his way to his first major final. He is making his debut at the Crucible, but he immediately finds himself among the most dangerous qualifiers anyway. His match against Ali Carter should be one of the most interesting of the 1st round, especially as they have never played before. Xiao hasn't just had the one good run this season, he followed it up with a quarter-final in the German Masters and some other decent results as well. He has shown himself to be a good fighter, coming back from behind in a couple of matches in Shanghai, and he scores very well when he is on form. Winning the World title would be a shock, but getting through a couple of rounds not so much...
There are another two dangerous qualifiers I would rule out. Ryan Day has had a fairly good season, his best since 2009/2010. He has climbed back up the rankings a bit again, close to the top16, helped mostly by runs to the quarter-finals of the International Championship and the semi-finals of the German Masters this season. But like Cope, I wouldn't really fancy Day for the title even if he completely regained his form. His scoring game is a match for anyone, but his tactical game isn't, and he isn't exactly known for playing his best under pressure. He has already reached the quarter-finals of the WC three times in his career, but a fourth here seems unlikely, especially with the draw he got in the 1st round. Stephen Maguire wouldn't be the worst case scenario for most players, but Day has a pretty dreadful record against him, one of the worst in all of snooker. Martin Gould came through a tough qualifying draw, beating Liang Wenbo in the final qualifying round, and he did play very well in parts of that match. He is one of the best potters in the game on his day, and a pretty good scorer as well, but unfortunately he often seems to find ways to lose matches in spite of his good play, and he has been known to bottle it pretty badly at times. I don't think the top players see him as a strong rival for the title, but I'm sure no one wants to be particularly close to him in the draw either, because he can be very dangerous in single matches. His match against Marco Fu here is surely one of the best prospects of the 1st round. They met for two years in a row in 2010 and 2011, and Gould came out on top both times.
Moving on to the seeded players, Mark Davis is probably the weakest, and one of only two who have not won a major title in their career. He has had a reasonably consistent season, with three major quarter-finals, but in two of those he was beaten by players ranked lower than him, so he will maybe feel like things could have gone even better for him. He is pretty solid in every element of the game, from scoring to tactics and pressure play, so he is tough to beat when he plays well. But at the same time he is not really exceptional at anything, so he will always be second favourite against the really top players, and it's tough to see him beating players like Ding or O'Sullivan over three or four sessions. Joe Perry is back as a seeded player at the Crucible as well, enjoying his best-ever season. He has reached two major ranking semi-finals and three quarter-finals in addition to that, and there are not many players with a better record than that. He also won a PTC title in China at the start of the season. It reminds me a lot of Stephen Lee's purple patch two seasons ago. Perry is also a former semi-finalist in the WC, back in 2008, so he has all the experience he needs to do well here. But like Davis, his best has never really been good enough to win him titles, even though his game doesn't really have a major weakness. He has also been unlucky to land in O'Sullivan's section of the draw here, and that may just be a little too tough for him at this point in time.
That leaves the 14 players who, in my opinion, have at least an outside chance of winning this title...
Let's start with Allister Carter, already a finalist in this event on two occasions. He has had his share of problems in recent times... He was diagnosed with testicular cancer at the start of the season, on top of his ongoing problems with Crohn's disease, so it's understandable that we didn't see much of him in the first part of the season. In fact, his recent run to the semi-finals of the China Open has been his only notable run in a major ranking event all season. A couple of early exits and missed tournaments put him out of the top16 for the Masters, but he is back as a seeded player here. I don't think there has been any decline in his technical ability from the time when he was in the top4, not so long ago actually, so there is no doubt a healthy Carter is better than his current ranking suggests. He has reached another semi-final on top of those two finals at the Crucible, all in the fairly recent past, so he has a pretty impressive record at the venue, kind of like Matthew Stevens in the past. His two bogey players have been Ronnie O'Sullivan and Neil Robertson, beating him five times in the last six years between them, but neither is close to him in the draw this year. He has a tough 1st round match against Xiao Guodong though. In his first run to the final in 2008 he played his signature attacking game, with high scoring and great potting from distance, while in 2012 he got to the final with quite a cautious and a very disciplined approach, under the mentorship of Peter Ebdon. If he could find the best of both approaches here, he would be very dangerous. The couple of times he has faced the top players this season he hasn't had much success, but he wasn't really at his best. Can he find his best form here? And will his health allow him to maintain it for 17 days?
I think most people would be surprised if Ricky Walden won this title, but I don't think anyone would be surprised to see him at the business end again. He was a semi-finalist last year, his first run of any note in this tournament, but he did beat three unseeded players on his way, so there is still a question whether he can beat the top players in the longer matches. He lost to Barry Hawkins in a close match in the semi-finals, then beat him 6-5 in the 1st round of the Masters this season, and they could meet again in the 2nd round here. Like Carter, Walden hasn't had a great season either. The highlight for him was reaching the semi-finals of the UK Championship, with a decent but not spectacular performance. He didn't show much form after that, until the China Open, where he was beaten by Carter in the quarter-finals. He plays a pretty weird game sometimes, ranging from fluent one-visit stuff to not being able to put much together, all within a short period. It's easy to see him dominating a session against anyone in the world, but unfortunately equally easy to see him struggling at some point during a long tournament such as this. It happened last year against Robert Milkins, and again against Hawkins just at the wrong time, ultimately costing him the match. But when he plays well he doesn't have an obvious weakness, and he doesn't get too nervy under pressure either. He has won two major ranking titles in his career, both in China, so he knows how to win, and he also knows what it's like to play in the one-table setup at the Crucible now.
Stuart Bingham doesn't have that experience yet, and is probably the best player you can say that about. He too has only had one really good result in the major ranking events this season, the semi-finals of the UK Championship, where he joined a pretty elite group of players to beat Ronnie O'Sullivan in a major event in recent times. He produced an impressive fightback from 8-3 down against Neil Robertson in the semi-finals, ultimately lost the match in the decider, but showed exactly the kind of fighting qualities you need over the longer matches in the WC. He hasn't reached the quarter-final stage of any other ranking event this season, so you could say his season hasn't been as successful as the previous two, but still not a bad one by any means. He has done enough to get himself up to 5th place in the rankings, the highest he has ever been. He was the runner-up in the inaugural Champion of Champions event, pushing O'Sullivan pretty close in the final. He also added another PTC title, his third one in China, which is pretty impressive, considering the Asian PTCs were only introduced last season. He generally seems to play his best snooker abroad, in China and Australia rather than the UK, so that could work against him here. A couple of years ago it would have seemed ridiculous that Bingham could be the World champion, and I guess it would still be a big surprise now, but he has earned the right to be taken seriously. He's got himself into the top8 in the world, and no one can accuse him of not playing to a standard that ranking demands. He has done it pretty nonchalantly, with a smile on his face, and win or lose, I expect he will enjoy this tournament as well.
Mark Allen certainly didn't enjoy his last two visits to the Crucible, losing in the 1st round for two years in a row. But maybe he will feel like he has a point to prove, and that could inspire him to a good performance here. He pulled out of the China Open a couple of weeks ago, clearly wanting to maximize his chances in this tournament. His best result in the WC remains the semi-final in 2009, when he was still seen as a dangerous outsider rather than a top contender. He has since won two ranking titles, the World Open in 2011 and 2012, but inconsistency has seen him drop down the rankings a bit again, and he has only just got in as the 15th seed. Unfortunately for him, that puts him in arguably the toughest quarter of the draw, with a possible match against Neil Robertson in the 2nd round. They've played quite a few times in recent years, and Allen is not winning that rivalry at the moment, having lost to Robertson in the Masters for three years in a row now. The World Open was his best tournament this season as well, he got through a very tough draw to reach the semi-finals, where he lost to Shaun Murphy. He was also a quarter-finalist in the UK Championship, but that was a somewhat less impressive performance, particularly the last16 match against Judd Trump. Allen doesn't really have a strong B-game, not the kind that would consistently get him to the business end of tournaments anyway, but the thing that makes him so dangerous is how strong his A-game is. He is capable of prolonged periods of high scoring, can pot his way out of trouble, and he doesn't seem to get involved in too much tactics and safety. He doesn't easily give up when he goes a couple of frames behind, and he seems to enjoy the big stage. Could it be his year?
Stephen Maguire once said he wanted to win the World title before he turned 30, otherwise he would feel like time was running out for him, and that would put him under pressure in the WC. Well, things have gone pretty badly for him in that respect. He is 33 now, and he has not only failed to win it, but also dropped out of the top8 this year, and is no longer one of the big title contenders. Will that put him under even more pressure, or will he relax now that people don't really expect him to win it anymore? He pulled out of the China Open at the last minute as well, and like Allen, he too lost in the 1st round last year, 10-9 to Dechawat Poomjaeng. It must have been frustrating to lose to an opponent who couldn't keep it going after that win, while Maguire himself could have probably done well in that quarter of the draw. This year he has landed in a much tougher quarter, with a possible match against Judd Trump in the 2nd round and then Robertson in the quarter-finals, but he does have one of the best records against Trump, so maybe he won't be too concerned. Does he have the form to do any damage here? He hasn't had a lot of success this season, apart from a semi-final in the short-format Indian Open and a quarter-final in the UK Championship. He also reached the semi-finals of the Masters, where he lost 6-2 to Ronnie O'Sullivan. In a way that match showed exactly what the problem with Maguire is... He opened with an excellent break in the first frame, and instead of gaining confidence and pushing on, like a Robertson or an Allen would have done, Maguire pretty much fell apart the moment something went against him, and he never looked like winning the match from then on. He takes bad mental approach to the extreme, like banging the table when he had a ten-frame lead against Hendry in 2012, and he carried it over to the next match against Carter as well and lost comfortably. His best chance to win the World title was probably in 2007, when he led John Higgins 14-10 in the semi-finals, but lost it in the final session. He was looking good again the following year, but underestimated Joe Perry and lost 13-12 in the quarter-finals. His technical ability is not really in question, so for him it's mostly about mental strength and discipline. He got it right in the Welsh Open last year, his most recent ranking title, so it is possible. But of course he needs to back it up with some form on the table as well.
Moving on to the players with a more realistic chance of winning the title...
We certainly can't overlook Barry Hawkins, the world number four, playing the best snooker of his career over the last couple of seasons. If he won the World title this year it would be from a similar position as Graeme Dott in 2006. He has reached a World final, climbed up the rankings, and established himself as a contender for any title. Last season he won the Australian Open, this season he added the PTC Finals as well. It wasn't a big tournament in terms of ranking points, or even prestige, but it did have a big top prize, and it put Hawkins in a position where he could afford to skip the China Open. He also had good runs in the Shanghai Masters, the UK Championship and the Welsh Open, so he is definitely coming here as one of the in-form players this season. He is another one of those players who pretty much have the complete game when they are playing well. I don't have the statistics, but I would be surprised if any player in the world plays as many deciders as Hawkins. He often finds a way to make a match of it from behind, but unfortunately he lets his opponents back into the match when he goes ahead quite often as well. He would probably be involved in a couple of close and tense matches just to reach the business end, and of course that requires a lot of physical and mental strength, whereas players who can win matches more "easily" could be fresher when it really matters. Hawkins also doesn't have the luxury of being an outsider anymore, at least not in his quarter of the draw, so he will be expected to come through the first couple of rounds. But it certainly won't be easy, with the likes of Walden next to him in the draw.
Judd Trump is probably pretty low on some people's list this year, but I wouldn't underestimate him. He was pretty awful in the first half of the season, losing early in every major event, but he has slowly got better as the season's gone on and has played some decent stuff at times. He was involved in a really high-quality match with Xiao Guodong in the UK Championship, with five centuries made between the players, but for some reason he played really poorly against Mark Allen in the following round and failed to reach the business end. It finally happened for him in the German Masters, where he played really well to reach the final, but ultimately came up short against a very strong Ding Junhui. The rest of his season was mainly ruined by John Higgins, who beat him twice in close matches, including a sensational comeback from 4-0 down in the World Open. Disappointing season, considering Trump managed to win a really big title in both of the previous two, the UK Championship in 2011 and the International Championship in 2012. He has only one more chance to win anything major this season... A reason for optimism could be the fact that Trump was one of the very few top players not to disappoint in last year's Championship. He played strong sessions at the right time against Fu and Murphy, and he could be good again over the long matches, where there is time for him to find his one-visit form. His scoring hasn't been consistent for a while, and if you think back to his semi-final against O'Sullivan last year, it was his scoring that lost him the match. He seemed to be in first in almost every frame, but kept breaking down on 30. The BBC had their silly kick counter, and it was something like 10-0 to Trump at one point, but I'm not sure if that was a true reflection of what was happening, or just the graphics guy seeing what he wanted to see. In any case, good scoring could have turned that convincing defeat into a comfortable victory, so that is definitely an element he will want to improve. One would also think that the long pots will have to be going in for him, like they were in 2011. He also has a pretty good record against the majority of his most dangerous opponents, the obvious exceptions being John Higgins, who is in the same half but not the same quarter, and Stephen Maguire, who is his most likely opponent in the 2nd round here. Trump has landed in the toughest quarter as it is, and it's even worse with his bogey player so close to him. He should be winning matches like that if he wants to win the title though, and he can quietly get through the rounds while all the hype is still on O'Sullivan.
Marco Fu surely has to be considered one of the favourites as well. He has been in good form for most of the season, especially in the first half when he won the Australian Open and pushed an in-form Ding to a decider in the final of the International Championship. He has played alright in recent months as well, reaching another quarter-final in the Welsh Open and a semi-final in the World Open. His consistency has improved dramatically over the last two seasons, so he no longer follows a good tournament with two bad ones. He is one of the best scorers in the game, usually playing with great finesse around the pink and black spot, but other elements of his game seem to come and go with form. He was unlucky to come up against an in-from Trump early on last year, and I guess you could say he is unlucky with the draw here. He has already lost to Martin Gould twice at the Crucible, and Murphy is probably the toughest player he could have drawn in the 2nd round at this point in time, as a top8 seed. He has quite a bad record against him as well, including a 13-3 defeat to him in this tournament a couple of years ago. The winner of that match could go on to play Ronnie O'Sullivan in the quarter-finals, so it only gets tougher. But Fu does have a good record against O'Sullivan, and in fact seems to raise his game against a lot of the top players, so this tournament should be right up his alley. It hasn't always been in the past though... He has played in the one-table setup at the Crucible before, in 2006 when he lost to Peter Ebdon in the semi-finals, but he hasn't been past the 2nd round since then. The thing is, there is always a worry with him that he could play a bad session, and when Fu plays badly he can really have a nightmare, and he usually does more damage than he can later recover. But he is one of only five players to win a major tournament this season, outside of the short-format stuff, so he has to fancy his chances here.
Shaun Murphy, on the other hand, is usually quite good over multiple sessions. He can limit the damage very well whenever he struggles in a session, and he takes maximum advantage whenever he is on top. He also has that useful habit of never giving up in a match, no matter how far behind he falls. There are two ways of looking at his results this season... On one hand, this is the first time in a decade that Murphy has failed to get to at least the quarter-finals of more than one ranking event all season. He struggled badly against the top players last season, losing three times as many matches as he won, and that record continued in the first part of this season. He had some good moments in the Masters, in getting to the semi-finals, but even that finished on a bad note with a heavy defeat to Mark Selby. Looking at the positives, Murphy's win in the World Open was his first major title in more than five years, the first with matches of at least medium length anyway. He has also started beating the top players again now, and that's something he will definitely need to do if he is to win the World title again. As I said earlier, he has had the better of Fu more often than not in the past, but his record against O'Sullivan is more suspect. In fact, he is one of the few top players to have never beaten him in a really big match, apart from that Premier League final perhaps. But to be fair, they have not played much over the years. Their biggest match was probably the 2nd round of the 2011 WC, O'Sullivan winning 13-10 on that occasion. Does Murphy have the bottle to hold his own against O'Sullivan in a three-session match here? One thing in his favour, compared to every other player of his generation apart from Neil Robertson, is the fact that he has won the WC before, so he is not under such pressure to win it again. He has a strong record in this tournament, with six appearances in the quarter-finals and beyond in the last nine years, and it would be no surprise to see him at the business end again.
John Higgins has kind of a weird record in the WC. He reached at least the quarter-finals for eight consecutive years between 1996 and 2003, and only won it once. In the next ten years he went out in the 1st or 2nd round seven times, but the three times he got through he went on to win the title. I know a lot of people doubt Higgins' chances of winning the WC again, but it's not exactly a long time ago that he was the best player in the world, and he has won this title three times in the last seven years, so I'm sure no one will be underestimating him. A year ago I talked about Higgins losing the killer instinct a bit, with the way he lost his matches against Mark Davis in the UK, against Murphy in the Masters and against Robert Milkins in the China Open, and unfortunately it's been the same at times this season. He had a lot of chances to beat Maguire in the Champion of Champions, but somehow managed to lose the match 4-3. He was in command against Selby in the Masters, but again lost 6-5, although to be fair to him, he did have two kicks when he was in the balls in the last two frames. Excellent play under pressure has been such a strong element of his game over the years, and it has contributed a lot to his success, so it's hard to imagine him winning another World title without it. Things started to turn around for him in the second half of the season, first with that win over Trump in the decider in the Welsh Open, and then his win against Trump from 4-0 down in the World Open. Those five frames were some of the best snooker anyone has played all season, but of course it was only half a session. He will need it for a lot longer here... He will be approaching two years without a major title with the start of next season, and he only played one really good tournament in that period, the Wuxi Classic this season, where he lost to a very strong Neil Robertson in the final. But Higgins has had droughts like this before in his career, and he always seems to come back stronger than ever. He got to a couple of quarter-finals recently, so maybe he is getting back some of his consistency, and I am finally getting the feeling that it will take a good performance to knock him out of this tournament. Not only is his B-game very hard to beat, he has won World titles with it, and his A-game comes just about as close to perfect snooker as it's possible. But does he still have it?
Mark Selby is at an age where he almost certainly still has it, but he too hasn't shown it in a while. He was one of the biggest disappointments in the WC in the last two years, struggling with a neck injury in 2012 and not playing anywhere near well enough in 2013, so he kind of has a point to prove this year. For a struggling player, he has been remarkably consistent this season. He reached at least the quarter-finals of eight out of ten tournaments with matches of medium length, more than anyone else in the world. Last season he scrapped his way to the UK and the Masters title, this season he scrapped his way to both finals again, but ultimately lost to in-form players both times. He also got to the final of the World Open, where he was beaten 10-6 by Shaun Murphy. He is incredibly tough to beat in close and scrappy matches, especially as the pressure increases, and he is not beaten even when he falls a long way behind, so the long matches here should be to his advantage. But as good as his "average" form is, it's hard to win the World title without any fluency, although Graeme Dott and Neil Robertson weren't exactly on fire either when they won it. Selby is certainly capable of scoring heavily, like he did against Hendry in 2010 and 2011, when he blew him away with a string of centuries. He also scored superbly on his way to the final here in 2007. He has the class and the experience, it's just a question whether he can back it up with a bit of form. He hasn't won a major title this season, so no one will be more determined to do well here, and he should still have something left in the tank, physically as well as emotionally. He is under pressure to win it sooner rather than later though, having turned 30 this season, so he might start looking at things the way Maguire does. He has a lot of mental strength and the kind of game that will probably allow him to challenge for titles for quite a few years yet, but it will be getting tougher each year. He is in the same quarter as Higgins, the player who denied him in 2009 when Selby was playing really well, so it definitely won't be easy this time, but I think an in-form Selby can hold his own against anyone in the world.
That only leaves the three best players in the world at this point in time. They have been by far the best players of the season so far, winning nine of the eleven biggest tournaments between them, so they will rightly be seen as the three big favourites for the World title this year...
Let's start with Ronnie O'Sullivan, the defending World Champion once again, after an already successful title defence last year. He is probably a bigger favourite for the title this year than anyone has been for many years, probably since 2005 when he came to the WC on the back of arguably his best-ever season. His record in the WC over the last decade is excellent, he failed to reach the business end of the tournament only once in that time, and even then it was not exactly a disgrace to lose to Mark Allen in the 2nd round. He has established a huge psychological advantage over most of his main opposition in the last two seasons or so, even though he hasn't really played a lot. He basically won the Champion of Champions with his B-game, beating Ding and Robertson in the process. He then played his A-game in the Masters and only dropped a few frames all week, and he won the Welsh Open in style as well, trashing a nervy Ding in the final. The setbacks have been few, losing to Bingham in the quarter-finals of the UK Championship was one of them I suppose, and he played pretty poorly in the International Championship as well, losing to Liang Wenbo from 4-1 up. I think the most encouraging thing is that he has played properly all season, apart from a little mad moment in the German Masters qualifiers. He has shown great willingness to compete in the safety battles, mostly coming out on top in them, and he seems to enjoy the frames where it's not all about breakbuilding more and more. But of course the breakbuilding is still the element that usually makes the difference in his favour. He is still the best scorer in the world, maybe not by far, but he can keep it going whenever he is challenged, while most other players fall apart the moment O'Sullivan applies any pressure. Another thing in his favour is a pretty good draw, which he is entitled to as the 1st seed of course. He won't like seeing Marco Fu in his quarter, but other than that, I'm sure he is happy to be in the same half as Ding, Walden and Hawkins, three players he gave a good beating to recently. The more "problematic" players such as Selby, Higgins, Robertson, maybe Trump, are all in the other half. He should have plenty of time to play himself into the tournament, and he usually grows stronger with every round. So, is there any way to stop him winning the title? Well, as I said earlier, he was just as a big a favourite in 2005, and got knocked out in the quarter-finals. He has played in 21 World Championships in his career, was the favourite in a lot of them, and at least among the favourites in almost all of them, but he has "only" won it five times, so he is by no means invincible. He is the king of dominating sessions and winning them 8-0 or 7-1, but he has also had sessions where nothing was going for him and he just kept losing frame after frame. There is no way to escape from the Crucible when you go into a crisis, and when O'Sullivan wants out of a match, he doesn't really think about limiting the damage. Also, he may be an extremely good snooker player, but that doesn't make him a magician, and form comes and goes with him just like with any other player. I don't think O'Sullivan will "lose" it this year though, someone else will have to win it.
Neil Robertson is certainly capable of doing just that. He comes to the WC as the reigning UK Champion, having completed the "triple crown" in December, adding the UK title to his 2010 World title and 2012 Masters title. That only puts him behind O'Sullivan and Higgins in what he has achieved in snooker over the last decade. He is also the current world number one, and has a chance to remain so with a strong performance here. His other achievements this season include the Wuxi Classic title and the finals of the Australian and the China Open. He used to be pretty inconsistent in the early part of his career, playing a couple of mediocre tournaments for every good one, but now he seems to be in good form all the time. The problem is, he came to the WC on the back of an equally good season last year, but this was the one tournament he disappointed in, losing to Robert Milkins in the 1st round. This time he has drawn one of the easier qualifiers on paper, but looking beyond the 1st round, he is the big loser out of the top4 seeds, having landed in the toughest quarter of the draw. I'm sure he would agree he had a very favourable draw when he won the World title in 2010, playing qualifiers in every round except one, but this time he will almost certainly have to do it the hard way. One thing that will be on everyone's mind is his quest to make a 100 centuries this season... He is currently on 93, so one would think he needs to get through a couple of rounds to make the seven he needs. He only made seven in five matches when he won in 2010, so it's not as easy as it sounds, and I think that could be some extra pressure on him in the early rounds. It's a great reflection of his scoring ability this season though. He is pretty strong in other elements of the game as well, particularly under pressure, and he doesn't give up easily. He was in very poor health during the China Open, but still battled through a couple of deciders and close matches to reach the final. He is in a similar position to Shaun Murphy, having already won a World title, so he is not under as much pressure as some of the other contenders here. But that could be a bad thing for Robertson, because he seems to thrive on pressure, and he loves a good challenge. If we are really determined to find a problem with his game, one thing could be some of the weird shot choices in close matches, when he refuses to go for attacking shots and spends ages looking at all of his options. A perfect example was the decider of his match against Marco Fu in the World Open, when he had an easy red to the middle, but literally stood at the table for three minutes thinking about how to get position on the blue, even though it wasn't particularly complicated. I think the break time was over seven minutes when he had only potted three balls, and that can't have helped his chances in that frame. Of course he went on to lose it on the black. He went pretty defensive against Mark Selby in the UK final as well, but started going for more shots at 5-1 down and turned the match around completely. He just needs to keep it simple and believe in himself, and as long as his illness is behind him, he should be fine.
And let's conclude with Ding Junhui... He has had a tremendous season, the best anyone has had since O'Sullivan in 2004/2005. He has won four "standard" ranking events, the Shanghai Masters, the International Championship, the German Masters and the China Open, and he won the short-format Indian Open as well. He has won the title almost every time he's got through the early rounds, the obvious exception being his defeat to O'Sullivan in the final of the Welsh Open, but that's hardly a disgrace. Let's start with a couple of his weaknesses... His poor record at the WC obviously. He has got past the 2nd round only twice in his career so far, in 2011 when he played really well to reach the semi-finals, and last year when he lost to Barry Hawkins in the quarter-finals. He has a habit of starting matches slowly, like the one against Mark King last year, and he puts himself under pressure as a result. He will also most likely have to play O'Sullivan to win the title this year. The last time he beat him in a major match was in the final of the 2006 Northern Ireland Trophy, eight years ago now. He has lost their following six matches, including a couple of really one-sided ones. He looked really nervous right from the start in the Welsh Open final, missed all kinds of balls, and his safety left him down as well. But I guess their Champion of Champions match should give him a bit of confidence. He took command of the match and got himself to a 5-3 lead, before O'Sullivan had an outrageous fluke on a poor safety which would have left Ding in for the match. Ding was also on a break of 50 in the decider, played the split pretty well but finished on nothing, and later lost the frame and match on the colours. On the positive side, his record in deciders and close matches has been excellent this season. I've lost count of how many times Ding has won the key frames with a big break. His scoring has ranged from alright to superb, and at one point in the International Championship final it was looking like Hendry's record of seven centuries in a match was in danger. His finesse in the balls is almost unrivalled, and even I appreciate him as a great stylist, even though I don't unusually pay much attention to "technique". He has also played some cracking safety at times this season, and his attitude has been exemplary. Earlier in the season I described him as John Higgins' successor, in the sense that his B-game now seems to get him to the business end of most tournaments, and he usually ends up winning unless someone plays really well against him. He doesn't really do anything stupid or flashy, it's just textbook snooker. He finds himself in the same quarter as Hawkins again, but he has already beaten him twice this season, so I don't think he will be too concerned. Can he end an already incredible season on the highest note possible?
I think that's just about all I have on this subject for now. Hoping for a great tournament, and let the best man win!
Who do you guys think will win it? :wink:
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