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So, the World Championship starts in two days, and tradition dictates we have one of these threads again. :wink:
I usually prefer to wait until the draw is done before giving my opinions, but it's a very small window between the draw and the actual start of the tournament this year, so I will post this a little earlier than intended.
The qualifiers have done quite well in recent years, I think mainly because they are now coming into the tournament on the back of a couple of wins, while the top16 have had a bit of a break. It's probably a slightly weaker field than usual though, because some of the players who would have been considered as the most dangerous qualifiers have already gone out, most notably Michael White, Liang Wenbo, Xiao Guodong, Peter Ebdon, Martin Gould and Luca Brecel. Quite a few good players have made it through though.
So, who is going to win the 2015 World Championship?
As usual, let's start at the other end, with a couple of players who have no chance of winning the title. Two of the three debutants immediately stand out, Craig Steadman, appearing at the Crucible for the first time at the age of 32, and Stuart Carrington, who is still reasonably young. Both had some good wins in the qualifiers, Steadman beat Michael White in his first match, while Carrington's most notable scalp was Peter Ebdon. They will be huge underdogs in their 1st round matches at the Crucible, whoever they draw, but they are both clearly playing well.
Robbie Williams is returning after his debut last year, when he didn't really do himself justice and got thrashed 10-2 by Robertson in the 1st round. He was a semi-finalist in the Indian Open last season, but I'm sure everyone knows by now how difficult I find it to accept that tournament as a proper ranking event. Zhang Anda also returns to the Crucible after five years. He has only played one match there in his previous appearance, but it was a memorable one, a 10-9 defeat to Stephen Hendry in 2010. Zhang played very well to take a 9-7 lead, and he by no means bottled it in the last three frames, it was Hendry who raised his game and made a couple of good breaks to win it. Unfortunately Zhang spent most of the next five years off the tour or struggling in the qualifiers, but perhaps a return to the big stage will inspire him again.
Another player we can safely rule out is Jimmy Robertson. I remember his Crucible debut as well, but unfortunately for the wrong reasons. He lost 10-1 to Selby in 2011, but the thing that's stuck in my mind is that he wouldn't play on for snookers even when the position was favourable, and you just can't win the longer matches without the willingness to fight. We see Robertson here and there in various tournaments, but never at the business end. On the other hand, Jamie Jones had a wonderful Crucible debut in 2012, when he got to the quarter-finals after beating Murphy and Higginson, making seven centuries in the process. That remains his only major quarter-final so far, but he has shown some decent form this season, the highlight being another win over Murphy in the Welsh Open. On the downside, he is the only player to come through the final qualifying round without making a single break over 50.
Of the more experienced players, I think it's pretty safe to rule out Robin Hull as well. A quarter-finalist in the Wuxi Classic at the start of the season, with another decent run in the China Open just recently, but there is nothing to suggest he could trouble the top players here, even if he is a very respectable scorer. Alan McManus had a good performance in China this season as well, a quarter-final in the Shanghai Masters, where he played very well to knock out O'Sullivan and Maguire. The Crucible has not been his best venue over the years, but his quarter-final appearance last year was a pleasant surprise, and it will hopefully give him some inspiration to play well this year as well. Kurt Maflin is not really a veteran yet, but he too is quite an experienced player now. He has shown some great form recently, getting to the semi-finals of a major ranking event for the first time in his career in the China Open, and in all honesty he didn't play too badly in that semi-final, but Selby was just too strong for him in the end. Maflin will surely be a danger to anyone here, but it's worth mentioning that he too is a debutant this year, so it will be interesting to see how he deals with the venue.
I would also rule out Matthew Selt, even though I think he could be a tricky draw here. He has played the best snooker of his career this season and appeared at major venues quite regularly, but I fear his form may be deserting him at the wrong time. He lost 5-1 to Elliot Slessor in the China Open, and he could have easily lost in the World qualifiers as well, but he was perhaps a little lucky to get such a favourable draw. Anthony McGill has had a minor breakthrough this season as well, the highlight being his run to the quarter-finals of the UK Championship. He actually had good chances to beat O'Sullivan and wasted them, so that tournament didn't really end on a high note for him, and it was a similar story against Murphy in the China Open. He was much more clinical yesterday though, winning the decider against Mark King with a century break. McGill is actually a pretty good safety player as well, so he won't be an easy draw, but realistically he is not going to win the event.
I think the ship has now sailed for Matthew Stevens as well. He has played in the one-table setup at the Crucible on six occasions, the last as recently as 2012, but the recent drop in form has now seen him drop out of the top32 in the rankings. I'm not sure he still has the ambition to get back to his best really. He looks to be in pretty poor physical shape and probably a little older than he actually is. Still, he has always been a specialist for the long matches and this is his favourite venue, so I wouldn't be surprised if he played his best snooker of the season here. Ryan Day will probably never get back to his best either, but he couldn't win an event even when he was in the top8 in the world, so I wouldn't give him much chance now. He could still be dangerous in single matches though. His Crucible scalps include the likes of Higgins, Maguire and Ding, so I'm sure most players will be hoping to avoid him.
I would also rule out another couple of players who have not won major titles yet. Mark Davis has been a model of consistency over the last couple of seasons, but no major title has come his way. He has reached quarter-finals in various formats this season, but I think the longer matches here will work against him, as the top players will inevitably show their class over multiple sessions. He has been something of a giant killer in recent times though, beating the likes of Robertson, Ding and Higgins on multiple occasions on the big stage. Can he do it again? Robert Milkins battled for a top16 place all season, but in the end he just missed out, even though he reached the business end of several big tournaments. His best moment was reaching the semi-finals of the International Championship, and he also got to the quarter-finals of the Australian Open, the Indian Open and the China Open. I don't think his game is suited to the World Championship though. Most of the time he plays too fast for his own good, and he doesn't seem to have much fight in him when things go wrong. He could be a danger, but I can't see past an isolated win for him, or perhaps two, if he gets a favourable draw.
That leaves us with the 17 players who, in my opinion have at least an outside chance of doing something.
I think Graeme Dott is probably the most dangerous qualifier this year. Before the UK Championship in December, his previous six major ranking quarter-finals had all been in China, so it was nice to see him playing well in the UK for a change. The first five frames of his match against Robertson were a masterclass of snooker, and he should have gone on to beat Bingham as well, but he got some really bad luck in the decider. Since the new year he has been fairly quiet, but he has still won a match or two at every venue he has qualified for. As venues go, the Crucible must surely be his favourite. He won the World title here in 2006 and reached the final on another couple of occasions, so he knows what it takes to go all the way. He is a very quick player these days, probably faster in the safety exchanges than any other player in this tournament, and he scores pretty quickly as well. The consistency is a bit of a problem though, for every good tournament he plays a couple of unremarkable ones. He also isn't really used to winning anymore, he won his most recent major title more than eight years ago now. In the past he got a reputation as a bit of a grinder, but he has had his share of problems in the slow, scrappy matches over the years, so I'm not sure that reputation is entirely deserved. He always fights to the end, but I actually think his patience is not the best, and that's not a good weakness to have in this tournament.
Of the 16 seeds, Joe Perry is the only player who has not won a proper major ranking event in his career, but he has come very close in recent times. His resurgence started last season when he reached the business end of five major events, and it's continued into this season with the final of the Wuxi Classic, where he had decent chances to win, but ultimately lost in a deciding frame. He also played well in the PTC series in this period, winning two single events in China, before finally capturing a major prize for winning the PTC Finals in Thailand last month. All of his titles so far have been in the short format, so the question is whether he can do it in the longer matches here. Well, he is a former semi-finalist at the Crucible, back in 2008 when he only lost by a couple of frames, and he often did well in the UK Championship as well, before the matches were shortened. Last year he played a great match against O'Sullivan in the 2nd round and was in the lead right until the final interval, but just came up short in the end. He had a couple of chances to make it 12-10, but just needed that one final good shot, or perhaps a little bit of luck. In the end O'Sullivan made it 11-11, then won the last two frames with centuries. That match showed that Perry was able to compete with anyone though, as his game doesn't really have a major weakness when he plays well. The problem is, he is just that one frame or two weaker than the really top players, and he is bound to come up against one of them in top form.
Allister Carter is a proven winner and twice a finalist in this event, but this year he is a bit of an outsider, having missed most of the season because of his health problems. It's a full year since he last competed at the business end of any major event, so he will probably be a little rusty, but the longer matches here do give players a chance to play themselves into form. He will be happy to find himself far away from O'Sullivan in the draw (although the nightmare final is still possible, unfortunately :wink
, but he will still have it very difficult, possibly meeting Robertson in the 2nd round here. He hasn't had much success against him in the past, losing to him twice in the World Championship already, and I'm sure most people will remember the ridiculous, almost perfect snooker Robertson played when they met in the Masters this year. Still, Carter is not one to give up easily, and you could say the pressure is now off him a bit, having already won the biggest battle of his life, against lung cancer last summer. At his best, Carter is a great long potter and a strong scorer, very dangerous when he gets enough table time, and he is also a great competitor, so I don't think anyone would be surprised if he found himself at the business of the World Championship again. It will be hard to do it this year though, mostly because he has played so little. His seeding has been frozen at 13th, but his actual ranking has dropped down to 31st now, so he could do with a strong performance here.
With Barry Hawkins, I think form is the main concern. The previous two seasons were the best of his career, but this one has been somewhat disappointing. He reached the semi-finals of the very first tournament, the Wuxi Classic, then went nine months without reaching the business end of another major ranking event. The low point of the season was probably the UK Championship, where he led Nigel Bond 5-0 and lost 6-5, and he hasn't really looked like a top8 player since. He is not really bad under pressure, but he does seem like a very nervous character, so it's no surprise he finds himself in close matches a lot, whether he is initially in front or behind. Last year he led Dominic Dale 11-5 before the final session of the quarter-finals, then lost the first seven frames of the session and only woke up when his back was against the wall. He still got to the semi-finals though, to add to the final from the previous year, so the World Championship has been a strong tournament for him in recent times. He is another player who doesn't really have a weakness when he plays well, but I think most people would agree that 5th seed is perhaps a little high for him at this point in time. Perhaps the run to the quarter-finals of the China Open last month is a sign of a return to form, but as I said, generally he has not been playing well enough this season to be considered among the favourites here.
I would put Marco Fu in the same category. He has played better than Hawkins this season, and certainly a lot more consistently, but he hasn't really challenged for any titles. He has lost in the quarter-finals of four major ranking events, as well as two major invitational tournaments, and I suppose that would have been a decent season for him in the past, but we have come to expect more from him in recent times. He hasn't been to the quarter-finals of the World Championship for nine years, and his draw here is pretty nasty. He could meet Trump in the 2nd round again, in a repeat of their match from two years ago, when Trump won 13-7 with a pretty strong performance. Fu is a very strong and reliable scorer, so he can easily win a number of frames in a row against anyone, but he also has a tendency to play a bad session once in a while, and he is not really great at limiting the damage when that happens. He is not going to win this title with his B-game, like an O'Sullivan or a Higgins could, so it's important for him to be somewhere close to his best throughout the Championship. I don't think anyone is safe against him in a single match, so I wouldn't rule him out, but to take the title here, he would need to string five wins together, and I don't think that's very likely.
Stuart Bingham has now dropped out of the top8, but his results have been as good as ever this season. He won the Shanghai Masters in September with a really strong performance, particularly against Ding in the semi-finals when he had to come from behind, and he added another PTC title in China the following month. He also reached the semi-finals of the UK Championship, the PTC Finals and the World Grand Prix. He seems pretty comfortable on the big stage these days, so it's just a question of finding his best form at the Crucible. He hasn't really done that much in the past, with only one run to the quarter-finals in his entire career, and a bunch of early exits or even defeats in the qualifiers. When he plays well he mostly gets involved in very open, attacking games, and he scores well enough to compete with anyone. But he too sometimes plays a bad match at the wrong time, usually without any warning. In the semi-finals of the World Grand Prix in March for example, he lost 6-0 to O'Sullivan and missed a bunch of easy balls, even though he had been playing fairly well in the previous days. He also lost to O'Sullivan in the semi-finals of the UK Championship, this time playing really well to lead 4-1, but as he got close to victory his game completely deserted him and he lost 6-5 in the end. There was a lot of pressure in that game, especially for Bingham who doesn't get the chance to reach a UK final all that often, but to win a World title you have to be able to handle it, because sooner or later you will find yourself involved in a nervy midnight finish against someone like Selby, who you know just relishes those sorts of occasions. I'm not sure Bingham has the kind of mental strength required to go all the way.
I don't have much confidence in Mark Williams either. On the plus side, he is playing some good snooker again, his best since 2011, and he has reached the business end of a number of events this season. He already showed some good form before the new year, when he got to the semi-finals of the International Championship, but in the last two months he added consistency as well. The problem is, whenever there was a chance to actually win a title, Williams couldn't keep up the standard. He led Perry 3-0 in the final of the PTC Finals, but lost the last four frames, even though he had his chances. It's more than four years since he last won a major title, so he isn't really used to winning anymore. On top of that, he is seeded to meet O'Sullivan in the 2nd round here. He has lost all four previous matches between them in the World Championship, all over a best-of-25, and even when he played well himself, O'Sullivan played even better. He has an awful record against him throughout his career, although he did win the last time they played, 6-5 in the quarter-finals of the International Championship, from 3-0 down. Williams used to be very good at winning fragmented frames, which made him a tough opponent even when he wasn't scoring fluently, but lately he doesn't seem to have much patience, and it looks like he has decided to just go for his shots in any circumstances, so he isn't really giving himself a chance if his game is slightly off. The draw hasn't been made yet at the time of writing this, so I might change my mind, but right now I have a feeling Williams will go out in the 2nd round.
Moving on to the players with a more realistic chance of winning this title...
I suspect most people would put Stephen Maguire in the previous group, and perhaps that's where he belongs, but for some reason I have a good feeling about him. He lost in the 1st round in 2013 and 2014, and it may sound funny, but he really needs to pick up where he left off last year. He went 9-6 behind against Ryan Day, but then seemed to go into a really determined and concentrated mood and got it back to 9-9. Unfortunately for Maguire, Day won the decider with a big break, but as I said at the time, the scoreline would have been a lot more one-sided if Maguire had played like that all match. The likes of Selby and Robertson seem to be able to do it all the time, so why not Maguire? I like his attitude this season, there isn't as much frustration as previously, even when everything seems to go against him, like in the Welsh Open quarter-final against Higgins. He played some solid snooker to reach the semi-finals of the UK Championship and the German Masters, and he made sure it took someone playing really well to take him out. Even in the Masters, Murphy played out of his skin and only beat him 6-4. It's amazing that Maguire has never even reached a World final, considering the standard he has produced in this tournament at times. He played a great tournament in 2007 and 2008, looking even more impressive than the eventual winners, and he certainly seemed to be playing well enough to beat Carter in 2012, but ended up losing their semi-final quite convincingly. I think he has developed a mental block over the years, and it's going to be increasingly tougher to overcome it, but his game on the table is solid enough. He is one of the best front-runners in the game, really ruthless when he finds a nice scoring rhythm, but as always, he needs to do his best to limit the damage when things start to go wrong. Can he finally do it this year?
It's been a while since Mark Allen last won a major title, a little over two years in fact, which puts him in a similar situation to Maguire. He too has had some good moments this season, particularly before the new year, when he got to the final of the Shanghai Masters and the International Championship. He also got to the semi-finals of the Masters, although he was perhaps a little lucky to come through a really scrappy match with Perry in the previous round. Unfortunately everything since then has been a struggle for him, as he failed to reach the business end of any major tournament, and he even lost in the qualifiers for the China Open. It's not absolutely necessary for players to show any great form immediately prior to the World Championship, but such a long drought isn't ideal either, so I suspect Allen won't be many people's favourite here. The draw is not too bad though, a possible meeting with the out-of-form Hawkins in the 2nd round, so a bit of time to play himself into form, before he probably has to face his nemesis Robertson. Allen was a semi-finalist at the Crucible in 2009, a period in which he saved his best snooker for the really big tournaments, but now he seems to play better in China, while the World Championship has been unsuccessful for him in the last three years. Can he reverse the trend? He plays an attacking and high-scoring game, but like so many players, he too struggles sometimes for no apparent reason. He doesn't seem to lose his fighting spirit though, even when things go scrappy, and that's a great quality to have for the longer matches. Before Higgins and O'Sullivan pushed up the average age of World champions, 29 seemed to be around the best age for players, so I would expect Allen to be a strong contender in the next couple of years.
Ricky Walden has reached his prime now as well, at the age of 32. He has never been among the biggest names in the game, but there is no doubt he is one of the game's best players at this point in time. He has won three major ranking events, all in China, the most recent of them being the International Championship earlier this season. It was a tournament with big prize money and slightly longer matches, and you have to go back a long time to find a surprising winner in any tournament of that stature, which puts Walden in great company. It should also be said that his performance in Chengdu was some of the best snooker anyone has played all season, so he really must be taken seriously here. Looking at the rest of his season, he also reached the final of the short-format Indian Open, and there are only a couple of players who have won more ranking points than him in 2014/2015. He too has already played in the one-table setup at the Crucible, when he reached the semi-finals two years ago, so he should be comfortable enough if he gets there again. A potential obstacle could be his draw here, as he finds himself in O'Sullivan's quarter. There is also a potential 2nd round match with Bingham, the player Walden had an absolute nightmare against in the UK Championship this season, losing 6-0 with a shocking performance. Walden doesn't really reach the business end of tournaments with his B-game, he either plays well or goes out early, so you never really know what to expect from him. When he is at his best, his game is strong enough to compete against anyone's, but personally I think his inconsistency will cost him.
And that brings us nicely to John Higgins, another player who has struggled with consistency a lot this season, but still strong enough to win titles when he has a good week. Before the Welsh Open he had gone almost an entire year without reaching a major quarter-final, so it was beginning to look like his days as a contender were over, but he found some form again and took advantage of a favourable draw in Wales, to win his first ranking title since the 2012 Shanghai Masters. That means he comes to the World Championship as recent tournament winner again, so he should have the belief he can compete again. In the last two years he went out in the 1st round, but I wouldn't expect that to happen this year. During his long drought it was clear that frustration was getting to him a little, and his first instinct was always to attack, kind of like Williams. That meant he was going for a lot of ill-advised pots, which had never been the case during his strong periods. His safety isn't as good as it used to be, and he doesn't seem to want to rely on it as much, so I can't see him winning another World title with his B-game, like he arguably did in 2007 and 2011. On the positive side, his long game has been really good in recent months, so it's much harder to keep him away from the table, and much harder to prevent him finding his scoring rhythm as a result. He also seems to enjoy playing under pressure again, those two little visits in the final frame of his match against Trump in the China Open were superb, and very reminiscent of how Higgins used to play all the time. It's a tough quarter of the draw, but I wouldn't put it past Higgins to come through. He is not right at the top of my list of favourites though.
Ding Junhui is one of the biggest mysteries in this year's draw. He held four major titles when the season started, so it must be disappointing for him to go into the World Championship holding none, after an extremely mediocre season. The first part actually wasn't too bad, but after the new year he went a long time without winning a single match, losing in the 1st round of six successive tournaments. All that fight he had last season seemed to go out of him, and he didn't get much luck either. The China Open showed a lot of positive signs for him though, on his way to the semi-finals he beat three players who had been playing well, and he showed a nice touch among the balls again. He also got in with some good long pots, mostly played at a slower pace and with nice control. He let it slip a little in the semi-finals, losing against a lower-ranked player from 3-1 up, but some of the shots he played in the decider when he was going for four snookers were just tremendous. It shows he still has the desire to win matches and tournaments, and the thing is, you don't forget how to play snooker in a year, so the player who won four major events last season is still around. Unfortunately his run in the China Open means he has overtaken Robertson in the rankings again, which puts him in a very tough quarter here. On top of that, the Crucible has never been his favourite venue. He doesn't seem to enjoy playing in front of a rowdy crowd, especially when they are against him. He turned 28 a few weeks back, so time is not exactly running out for him, but it will get more and more difficult the longer his bad run at the Crucible continues. I have my doubts about Ding, as I'm sure most people do, but if he came here with the kind of form he showed last season, he would still be one of the men to beat.
It will be very interesting to see what Shaun Murphy can do this year. My mother doesn't watch a lot of snooker, but for some reason she has developed a strong dislike of Murphy, especially after his pathetic performance against O'Sullivan last year, when he lost with a session to spare. So the first thing she asked me at the start of the season was whether Murphy was still playing, because in her opinion he should have hidden in a "mouse hole" and never come out again. :smile: Luckily Murphy had different ideas and has really raised his game this season, playing probably his best snooker since 2008. The season started pretty poorly for him, only one major quarter-final before the new year, and even then he should have won the match against Robertson, but he missed a sitter when something like 50 in front in the decider. He did something similar against Fu in the UK Championship, when he just needed the yellow in the decider, but he snookered himself behind the blue and allowed Fu to clear up and win on the black. At that point in the season he had not won a single match against a top16 seed in any major tournament, so it was a pleasant surprise to see him turn things around so dramatically after the new year. Selby had a scoring chance in the decider to take him out of the Masters in the 1st round, but Murphy survived, then went on to play some tremendous snooker that week, probably the best any player has played all season. Even when he went a couple of frames behind against Allen and Maguire he didn't panic, but instead continued to go for his shots with great confidence and came back very strongly. You could tell he fully expected everything to go in, because he made no effort to avoid cannoning into other balls on long pots, and to be fair, he hardly missed all week. His form continued into the German Masters, where he got close to winning back-to-back major titles, but he just came up a couple of frames short in the final. It was the kind of snooker that won him the World title in 2005, and this is probably his best chance in quite a while to win it for the second time. The problem is, with the kind of attacking game he plays he can't afford to start missing. Last month he played Ebdon in the World Grand Prix and finished the match on 0% long pot success, and it was clear to see how impotent his game was compared to the one that won him the Masters title. The question is which game he will bring to this tournament. One could easily win him the title, but the other could just as easily see him go out early. As I said, it will be interesting to see how he does.
And that just leaves the four players who are, in my opinion, the big favourites to win the World title this year.
Let's start with Neil Robertson, a player I have quite a few opinions about. It didn't take him long to get going this season, he won the Wuxi Classic right at the start and followed it up with another major final in the Australian Open, so it looked like he would have a really strong season, but unfortunately that was as good as it got for him. It's interesting, he has been such a great pressure player over the years, especially reliable at the business end of tournaments, but lately he has been less impressive in that regard. This season in particular he has found some really stupid ways to lose matches. He played an 80-minute decider against Mark Davis in the World Grand Prix, very fragmented and tactical, and when it came down to the last couple of balls, Robertson was perfectly on the pink with the angle to leave himself a mid-range black, but instead left himself a safety and lost the match two shots later. In the China Open a few weeks back he found himself in an almost identical situation against Dechawat Poomjaeng, and this time he did go for the black and missed it, even though it was the kind of pot Robertson usually gets without any problem. There was also the defeat against Maguire in the German Masters, when Maguire already needed two snookers in the decider, but Robertson fouled the black and gave seven points away, and Maguire cleared up to win. Another low point was his match against Gary Wilson in the Welsh Open, when he missed a thin safety three times in a row and gave the frame away, at a very crucial point in the match. He also lost from 3-0 up against Michael White in Shanghai and from 5-3 up against Swail in Chengdu, which would have been almost unheard of in the previous seasons. His performance against Murphy in the Masters was the worst he has ever played in a major final, although to be fair, Murphy did put him under pressure. Robertson's confidence doesn't seem to be as high as in the past, and I think he overthinks situations a lot of the time, especially under pressure. So, why is he among the favourites then? For a start, his scoring has been superb in the last two seasons, and when he backs it up with a strong long game he is extremely difficult to play against. He may be vulnerable in the 1st round, but once we get to the best-of-25 matches he is very difficult to outclass. The "worst" player to ever beat him over that length is Graeme Dott, and even that was before Robertson had won his first major title, his other defeats are all against the very top players. This year he has landed in a fairly favourable quarter, and he should be quite a strong favourite in every match until at least the semi-finals. As long as he keeps his head and believes in himself, he is in with a great chance.
Ronnie O'Sullivan is the bookies' favourite, as usual, and this time that's not too far from reality. He has played in the last three World finals and won two of them, which just shows how hard it's been to beat him in the longer matches since his return to form in 2012. He basically has two shots at every title. He can play his best and win in impressive style, like he did in the Champion of Champions this season, or he can play like he did in the UK Championship and still have a decent chance of winning, because he has such a huge psychological advantage over most of his opposition. As I said at the time, his UK performance was the worst anyone has needed to play to win one of the really big titles in the time I've been watching snooker, partly because the draw really opened up for him, and partly because a lot of the players simply don't have the belief they can beat him, and as a result they don't take their chances even when he has an off day. O'Sullivan's main strength remains his strong scoring, an element of the game very few players can match him in, even as he approaches 40 years of age. His long potting comes and goes with form, and his tactical game is not really in question, although his willingness to actually compete in the safety exchanges often depends on his general mindset. He is a superb front-runner, the list of players he has beaten with a session to spare at the Crucible (or came very close) is quite scary, so he often only needs a couple of strong frames to crack opponents. He has a very favourable draw here, with Williams, Walden and Bingham the other three seeds in his quarter, all players he has a very good record against. Like Robertson, he has a very good chance of reaching at least the semi-finals, and he will become tougher to beat with every round. Looking at potential weaknesses, his main problem could be the fact that he hasn't really found top form since the new year, although that didn't stop him reaching the final of the World Grand Prix last month. Another problem could be his struggle to close out matches this season. In all three finals he played against Trump he took control of the match early, then slowly let Trump back into the match in the evening session. The first time he still won reasonably comfortably, the second time he only just got over the line, but the third time he lost 10-7 from 7-4 up. He also lost to Williams for the first time in more than a decade in the International Championship this season, after leading 3-0 in the early stages of the match. In the German Masters he led Murphy 4-2 and had good chances to win, but ended up losing 5-4 on the black. I am not really sure, but I suspect that was the first time he has wasted a 4-2 lead in a best-of-9 in the time I've been watching snooker. All this may or may not be a result of losing the World final from such a strong position last year, but whatever it is, he can't afford to fall victim to it here. I have a feeling he will be alright.
Judd Trump has been one of the best players this season, and he has a chance to finish it on a really high note. Like Robertson, he too won a major title very early, the Australian Open in the summer, and it seemed to relax him and give him confidence for the rest of the season. I was very critical of him when he failed to win the UK title, because I felt he had played much better snooker than O'Sullivan that week, but I suppose he redeemed himself by beating O'Sullivan in the final of the World Grand Prix last month. He was very honest in the post-match interview, talking about how nervous he always felt when playing O'Sullivan, but I suspect he will play with a lot more confidence against him now. His other two bogey players in recent years have been Maguire, who is in the other half of the draw here, and Higgins, whom Trump could potentially play in the quarter-finals. Higgins has won all six of their previous major meetings, including a World final, a ranking final, a best-of-9 from 4-0 down, and of course that dramatic match in China a few weeks ago, so I suspect Trump will be hoping to avoid him here. He is not very likely to meet Williams either, the player who knocked him out of three tournaments recently, although I would make Trump favourite even if they did meet here. Another thing he will probably have to deal with is the constant media hype that surrounds him in the BBC tournaments, although I suspect O'Sullivan and Selby will be getting similar treatment. On the table Trump is pretty bulletproof these days. He has made more centuries than any other player this season, his safety has mostly been good as well, particularly in the World Grand Prix, and his long potting remains a big edge over most of his competition. He has also learned not to give up when he goes behind in matches. His comebacks against O'Sullivan in all three finals were superb, as was the comeback against Martin Gould from 5-1 down in the semi-finals of the World Grand Prix. He was never really a bad safety player, but he played a pretty one-dimensional game when he reached the World final in 2011, whereas now I think he is the complete player. He is a few months younger than O'Sullivan was when he won his first World title, so I would expect him to be among the tournament favourites for at least the next decade. Can he win it as early as this year?
And we conclude with Mark Selby, the defending champion. There is bound to be a lot of talk about the Crucible Curse and stuff like that, and while I'm not a big fan of that term, it is true that defending this title will be difficult. In a couple of hours his 1st round opponent will be known, with quite a few players who could cause him problems waiting in the draw, and even if he does survive, that 2nd round match against Maguire looks exactly like the kind of obstacle defending champions often trip over. Winning the China Open immediately prior to the World Championship is considered a kind of a curse in itself by some people, but to be fair, winning back-to-back major titles at any point in the season is pretty rare these days, so it's not really anything unique to these two events. It's really tough to think of any weaknesses with Selby... Perhaps the motivation won't be quite the same as it was last year, now that he has already achieved his ultimate goal, or perhaps he will have one of those tournaments where he really struggles with fluency, but it seems unlikely. He is the only player to hold three major titles at the moment, and he looks set to extend his lead at the top of the world rankings, so I think he has a good claim for being called the best player in the world and the man to beat in this Championship. He plays the game of snooker with great heart, and he has that rare ability to maintain his composure under the biggest pressure. He is probably the best tactician in the game, and one of the best scorers, even if he does sometimes make the game look quite difficult. He landed in what is probably the second toughest quarter here, but it's pointless to look for bogey players, because Selby doesn't really have any. I think the first two rounds will be where he is the most vulnerable, but once he plays himself into the tournament it will probably take a great performance from one of the top players to beat him. I don't know whether Selby can defend this title, but win or lose, it should be great entertainment as always.
I think that's about all I have to say for now, but I'm looking forward to seeing how the draw works out today. :smile:
So, who do you think is going to win the 2015 World Championship?
I usually prefer to wait until the draw is done before giving my opinions, but it's a very small window between the draw and the actual start of the tournament this year, so I will post this a little earlier than intended.
The qualifiers have done quite well in recent years, I think mainly because they are now coming into the tournament on the back of a couple of wins, while the top16 have had a bit of a break. It's probably a slightly weaker field than usual though, because some of the players who would have been considered as the most dangerous qualifiers have already gone out, most notably Michael White, Liang Wenbo, Xiao Guodong, Peter Ebdon, Martin Gould and Luca Brecel. Quite a few good players have made it through though.
So, who is going to win the 2015 World Championship?
As usual, let's start at the other end, with a couple of players who have no chance of winning the title. Two of the three debutants immediately stand out, Craig Steadman, appearing at the Crucible for the first time at the age of 32, and Stuart Carrington, who is still reasonably young. Both had some good wins in the qualifiers, Steadman beat Michael White in his first match, while Carrington's most notable scalp was Peter Ebdon. They will be huge underdogs in their 1st round matches at the Crucible, whoever they draw, but they are both clearly playing well.
Robbie Williams is returning after his debut last year, when he didn't really do himself justice and got thrashed 10-2 by Robertson in the 1st round. He was a semi-finalist in the Indian Open last season, but I'm sure everyone knows by now how difficult I find it to accept that tournament as a proper ranking event. Zhang Anda also returns to the Crucible after five years. He has only played one match there in his previous appearance, but it was a memorable one, a 10-9 defeat to Stephen Hendry in 2010. Zhang played very well to take a 9-7 lead, and he by no means bottled it in the last three frames, it was Hendry who raised his game and made a couple of good breaks to win it. Unfortunately Zhang spent most of the next five years off the tour or struggling in the qualifiers, but perhaps a return to the big stage will inspire him again.
Another player we can safely rule out is Jimmy Robertson. I remember his Crucible debut as well, but unfortunately for the wrong reasons. He lost 10-1 to Selby in 2011, but the thing that's stuck in my mind is that he wouldn't play on for snookers even when the position was favourable, and you just can't win the longer matches without the willingness to fight. We see Robertson here and there in various tournaments, but never at the business end. On the other hand, Jamie Jones had a wonderful Crucible debut in 2012, when he got to the quarter-finals after beating Murphy and Higginson, making seven centuries in the process. That remains his only major quarter-final so far, but he has shown some decent form this season, the highlight being another win over Murphy in the Welsh Open. On the downside, he is the only player to come through the final qualifying round without making a single break over 50.
Of the more experienced players, I think it's pretty safe to rule out Robin Hull as well. A quarter-finalist in the Wuxi Classic at the start of the season, with another decent run in the China Open just recently, but there is nothing to suggest he could trouble the top players here, even if he is a very respectable scorer. Alan McManus had a good performance in China this season as well, a quarter-final in the Shanghai Masters, where he played very well to knock out O'Sullivan and Maguire. The Crucible has not been his best venue over the years, but his quarter-final appearance last year was a pleasant surprise, and it will hopefully give him some inspiration to play well this year as well. Kurt Maflin is not really a veteran yet, but he too is quite an experienced player now. He has shown some great form recently, getting to the semi-finals of a major ranking event for the first time in his career in the China Open, and in all honesty he didn't play too badly in that semi-final, but Selby was just too strong for him in the end. Maflin will surely be a danger to anyone here, but it's worth mentioning that he too is a debutant this year, so it will be interesting to see how he deals with the venue.
I would also rule out Matthew Selt, even though I think he could be a tricky draw here. He has played the best snooker of his career this season and appeared at major venues quite regularly, but I fear his form may be deserting him at the wrong time. He lost 5-1 to Elliot Slessor in the China Open, and he could have easily lost in the World qualifiers as well, but he was perhaps a little lucky to get such a favourable draw. Anthony McGill has had a minor breakthrough this season as well, the highlight being his run to the quarter-finals of the UK Championship. He actually had good chances to beat O'Sullivan and wasted them, so that tournament didn't really end on a high note for him, and it was a similar story against Murphy in the China Open. He was much more clinical yesterday though, winning the decider against Mark King with a century break. McGill is actually a pretty good safety player as well, so he won't be an easy draw, but realistically he is not going to win the event.
I think the ship has now sailed for Matthew Stevens as well. He has played in the one-table setup at the Crucible on six occasions, the last as recently as 2012, but the recent drop in form has now seen him drop out of the top32 in the rankings. I'm not sure he still has the ambition to get back to his best really. He looks to be in pretty poor physical shape and probably a little older than he actually is. Still, he has always been a specialist for the long matches and this is his favourite venue, so I wouldn't be surprised if he played his best snooker of the season here. Ryan Day will probably never get back to his best either, but he couldn't win an event even when he was in the top8 in the world, so I wouldn't give him much chance now. He could still be dangerous in single matches though. His Crucible scalps include the likes of Higgins, Maguire and Ding, so I'm sure most players will be hoping to avoid him.
I would also rule out another couple of players who have not won major titles yet. Mark Davis has been a model of consistency over the last couple of seasons, but no major title has come his way. He has reached quarter-finals in various formats this season, but I think the longer matches here will work against him, as the top players will inevitably show their class over multiple sessions. He has been something of a giant killer in recent times though, beating the likes of Robertson, Ding and Higgins on multiple occasions on the big stage. Can he do it again? Robert Milkins battled for a top16 place all season, but in the end he just missed out, even though he reached the business end of several big tournaments. His best moment was reaching the semi-finals of the International Championship, and he also got to the quarter-finals of the Australian Open, the Indian Open and the China Open. I don't think his game is suited to the World Championship though. Most of the time he plays too fast for his own good, and he doesn't seem to have much fight in him when things go wrong. He could be a danger, but I can't see past an isolated win for him, or perhaps two, if he gets a favourable draw.
That leaves us with the 17 players who, in my opinion have at least an outside chance of doing something.
I think Graeme Dott is probably the most dangerous qualifier this year. Before the UK Championship in December, his previous six major ranking quarter-finals had all been in China, so it was nice to see him playing well in the UK for a change. The first five frames of his match against Robertson were a masterclass of snooker, and he should have gone on to beat Bingham as well, but he got some really bad luck in the decider. Since the new year he has been fairly quiet, but he has still won a match or two at every venue he has qualified for. As venues go, the Crucible must surely be his favourite. He won the World title here in 2006 and reached the final on another couple of occasions, so he knows what it takes to go all the way. He is a very quick player these days, probably faster in the safety exchanges than any other player in this tournament, and he scores pretty quickly as well. The consistency is a bit of a problem though, for every good tournament he plays a couple of unremarkable ones. He also isn't really used to winning anymore, he won his most recent major title more than eight years ago now. In the past he got a reputation as a bit of a grinder, but he has had his share of problems in the slow, scrappy matches over the years, so I'm not sure that reputation is entirely deserved. He always fights to the end, but I actually think his patience is not the best, and that's not a good weakness to have in this tournament.
Of the 16 seeds, Joe Perry is the only player who has not won a proper major ranking event in his career, but he has come very close in recent times. His resurgence started last season when he reached the business end of five major events, and it's continued into this season with the final of the Wuxi Classic, where he had decent chances to win, but ultimately lost in a deciding frame. He also played well in the PTC series in this period, winning two single events in China, before finally capturing a major prize for winning the PTC Finals in Thailand last month. All of his titles so far have been in the short format, so the question is whether he can do it in the longer matches here. Well, he is a former semi-finalist at the Crucible, back in 2008 when he only lost by a couple of frames, and he often did well in the UK Championship as well, before the matches were shortened. Last year he played a great match against O'Sullivan in the 2nd round and was in the lead right until the final interval, but just came up short in the end. He had a couple of chances to make it 12-10, but just needed that one final good shot, or perhaps a little bit of luck. In the end O'Sullivan made it 11-11, then won the last two frames with centuries. That match showed that Perry was able to compete with anyone though, as his game doesn't really have a major weakness when he plays well. The problem is, he is just that one frame or two weaker than the really top players, and he is bound to come up against one of them in top form.
Allister Carter is a proven winner and twice a finalist in this event, but this year he is a bit of an outsider, having missed most of the season because of his health problems. It's a full year since he last competed at the business end of any major event, so he will probably be a little rusty, but the longer matches here do give players a chance to play themselves into form. He will be happy to find himself far away from O'Sullivan in the draw (although the nightmare final is still possible, unfortunately :wink
, but he will still have it very difficult, possibly meeting Robertson in the 2nd round here. He hasn't had much success against him in the past, losing to him twice in the World Championship already, and I'm sure most people will remember the ridiculous, almost perfect snooker Robertson played when they met in the Masters this year. Still, Carter is not one to give up easily, and you could say the pressure is now off him a bit, having already won the biggest battle of his life, against lung cancer last summer. At his best, Carter is a great long potter and a strong scorer, very dangerous when he gets enough table time, and he is also a great competitor, so I don't think anyone would be surprised if he found himself at the business of the World Championship again. It will be hard to do it this year though, mostly because he has played so little. His seeding has been frozen at 13th, but his actual ranking has dropped down to 31st now, so he could do with a strong performance here.With Barry Hawkins, I think form is the main concern. The previous two seasons were the best of his career, but this one has been somewhat disappointing. He reached the semi-finals of the very first tournament, the Wuxi Classic, then went nine months without reaching the business end of another major ranking event. The low point of the season was probably the UK Championship, where he led Nigel Bond 5-0 and lost 6-5, and he hasn't really looked like a top8 player since. He is not really bad under pressure, but he does seem like a very nervous character, so it's no surprise he finds himself in close matches a lot, whether he is initially in front or behind. Last year he led Dominic Dale 11-5 before the final session of the quarter-finals, then lost the first seven frames of the session and only woke up when his back was against the wall. He still got to the semi-finals though, to add to the final from the previous year, so the World Championship has been a strong tournament for him in recent times. He is another player who doesn't really have a weakness when he plays well, but I think most people would agree that 5th seed is perhaps a little high for him at this point in time. Perhaps the run to the quarter-finals of the China Open last month is a sign of a return to form, but as I said, generally he has not been playing well enough this season to be considered among the favourites here.
I would put Marco Fu in the same category. He has played better than Hawkins this season, and certainly a lot more consistently, but he hasn't really challenged for any titles. He has lost in the quarter-finals of four major ranking events, as well as two major invitational tournaments, and I suppose that would have been a decent season for him in the past, but we have come to expect more from him in recent times. He hasn't been to the quarter-finals of the World Championship for nine years, and his draw here is pretty nasty. He could meet Trump in the 2nd round again, in a repeat of their match from two years ago, when Trump won 13-7 with a pretty strong performance. Fu is a very strong and reliable scorer, so he can easily win a number of frames in a row against anyone, but he also has a tendency to play a bad session once in a while, and he is not really great at limiting the damage when that happens. He is not going to win this title with his B-game, like an O'Sullivan or a Higgins could, so it's important for him to be somewhere close to his best throughout the Championship. I don't think anyone is safe against him in a single match, so I wouldn't rule him out, but to take the title here, he would need to string five wins together, and I don't think that's very likely.
Stuart Bingham has now dropped out of the top8, but his results have been as good as ever this season. He won the Shanghai Masters in September with a really strong performance, particularly against Ding in the semi-finals when he had to come from behind, and he added another PTC title in China the following month. He also reached the semi-finals of the UK Championship, the PTC Finals and the World Grand Prix. He seems pretty comfortable on the big stage these days, so it's just a question of finding his best form at the Crucible. He hasn't really done that much in the past, with only one run to the quarter-finals in his entire career, and a bunch of early exits or even defeats in the qualifiers. When he plays well he mostly gets involved in very open, attacking games, and he scores well enough to compete with anyone. But he too sometimes plays a bad match at the wrong time, usually without any warning. In the semi-finals of the World Grand Prix in March for example, he lost 6-0 to O'Sullivan and missed a bunch of easy balls, even though he had been playing fairly well in the previous days. He also lost to O'Sullivan in the semi-finals of the UK Championship, this time playing really well to lead 4-1, but as he got close to victory his game completely deserted him and he lost 6-5 in the end. There was a lot of pressure in that game, especially for Bingham who doesn't get the chance to reach a UK final all that often, but to win a World title you have to be able to handle it, because sooner or later you will find yourself involved in a nervy midnight finish against someone like Selby, who you know just relishes those sorts of occasions. I'm not sure Bingham has the kind of mental strength required to go all the way.
I don't have much confidence in Mark Williams either. On the plus side, he is playing some good snooker again, his best since 2011, and he has reached the business end of a number of events this season. He already showed some good form before the new year, when he got to the semi-finals of the International Championship, but in the last two months he added consistency as well. The problem is, whenever there was a chance to actually win a title, Williams couldn't keep up the standard. He led Perry 3-0 in the final of the PTC Finals, but lost the last four frames, even though he had his chances. It's more than four years since he last won a major title, so he isn't really used to winning anymore. On top of that, he is seeded to meet O'Sullivan in the 2nd round here. He has lost all four previous matches between them in the World Championship, all over a best-of-25, and even when he played well himself, O'Sullivan played even better. He has an awful record against him throughout his career, although he did win the last time they played, 6-5 in the quarter-finals of the International Championship, from 3-0 down. Williams used to be very good at winning fragmented frames, which made him a tough opponent even when he wasn't scoring fluently, but lately he doesn't seem to have much patience, and it looks like he has decided to just go for his shots in any circumstances, so he isn't really giving himself a chance if his game is slightly off. The draw hasn't been made yet at the time of writing this, so I might change my mind, but right now I have a feeling Williams will go out in the 2nd round.
Moving on to the players with a more realistic chance of winning this title...
I suspect most people would put Stephen Maguire in the previous group, and perhaps that's where he belongs, but for some reason I have a good feeling about him. He lost in the 1st round in 2013 and 2014, and it may sound funny, but he really needs to pick up where he left off last year. He went 9-6 behind against Ryan Day, but then seemed to go into a really determined and concentrated mood and got it back to 9-9. Unfortunately for Maguire, Day won the decider with a big break, but as I said at the time, the scoreline would have been a lot more one-sided if Maguire had played like that all match. The likes of Selby and Robertson seem to be able to do it all the time, so why not Maguire? I like his attitude this season, there isn't as much frustration as previously, even when everything seems to go against him, like in the Welsh Open quarter-final against Higgins. He played some solid snooker to reach the semi-finals of the UK Championship and the German Masters, and he made sure it took someone playing really well to take him out. Even in the Masters, Murphy played out of his skin and only beat him 6-4. It's amazing that Maguire has never even reached a World final, considering the standard he has produced in this tournament at times. He played a great tournament in 2007 and 2008, looking even more impressive than the eventual winners, and he certainly seemed to be playing well enough to beat Carter in 2012, but ended up losing their semi-final quite convincingly. I think he has developed a mental block over the years, and it's going to be increasingly tougher to overcome it, but his game on the table is solid enough. He is one of the best front-runners in the game, really ruthless when he finds a nice scoring rhythm, but as always, he needs to do his best to limit the damage when things start to go wrong. Can he finally do it this year?
It's been a while since Mark Allen last won a major title, a little over two years in fact, which puts him in a similar situation to Maguire. He too has had some good moments this season, particularly before the new year, when he got to the final of the Shanghai Masters and the International Championship. He also got to the semi-finals of the Masters, although he was perhaps a little lucky to come through a really scrappy match with Perry in the previous round. Unfortunately everything since then has been a struggle for him, as he failed to reach the business end of any major tournament, and he even lost in the qualifiers for the China Open. It's not absolutely necessary for players to show any great form immediately prior to the World Championship, but such a long drought isn't ideal either, so I suspect Allen won't be many people's favourite here. The draw is not too bad though, a possible meeting with the out-of-form Hawkins in the 2nd round, so a bit of time to play himself into form, before he probably has to face his nemesis Robertson. Allen was a semi-finalist at the Crucible in 2009, a period in which he saved his best snooker for the really big tournaments, but now he seems to play better in China, while the World Championship has been unsuccessful for him in the last three years. Can he reverse the trend? He plays an attacking and high-scoring game, but like so many players, he too struggles sometimes for no apparent reason. He doesn't seem to lose his fighting spirit though, even when things go scrappy, and that's a great quality to have for the longer matches. Before Higgins and O'Sullivan pushed up the average age of World champions, 29 seemed to be around the best age for players, so I would expect Allen to be a strong contender in the next couple of years.
Ricky Walden has reached his prime now as well, at the age of 32. He has never been among the biggest names in the game, but there is no doubt he is one of the game's best players at this point in time. He has won three major ranking events, all in China, the most recent of them being the International Championship earlier this season. It was a tournament with big prize money and slightly longer matches, and you have to go back a long time to find a surprising winner in any tournament of that stature, which puts Walden in great company. It should also be said that his performance in Chengdu was some of the best snooker anyone has played all season, so he really must be taken seriously here. Looking at the rest of his season, he also reached the final of the short-format Indian Open, and there are only a couple of players who have won more ranking points than him in 2014/2015. He too has already played in the one-table setup at the Crucible, when he reached the semi-finals two years ago, so he should be comfortable enough if he gets there again. A potential obstacle could be his draw here, as he finds himself in O'Sullivan's quarter. There is also a potential 2nd round match with Bingham, the player Walden had an absolute nightmare against in the UK Championship this season, losing 6-0 with a shocking performance. Walden doesn't really reach the business end of tournaments with his B-game, he either plays well or goes out early, so you never really know what to expect from him. When he is at his best, his game is strong enough to compete against anyone's, but personally I think his inconsistency will cost him.
And that brings us nicely to John Higgins, another player who has struggled with consistency a lot this season, but still strong enough to win titles when he has a good week. Before the Welsh Open he had gone almost an entire year without reaching a major quarter-final, so it was beginning to look like his days as a contender were over, but he found some form again and took advantage of a favourable draw in Wales, to win his first ranking title since the 2012 Shanghai Masters. That means he comes to the World Championship as recent tournament winner again, so he should have the belief he can compete again. In the last two years he went out in the 1st round, but I wouldn't expect that to happen this year. During his long drought it was clear that frustration was getting to him a little, and his first instinct was always to attack, kind of like Williams. That meant he was going for a lot of ill-advised pots, which had never been the case during his strong periods. His safety isn't as good as it used to be, and he doesn't seem to want to rely on it as much, so I can't see him winning another World title with his B-game, like he arguably did in 2007 and 2011. On the positive side, his long game has been really good in recent months, so it's much harder to keep him away from the table, and much harder to prevent him finding his scoring rhythm as a result. He also seems to enjoy playing under pressure again, those two little visits in the final frame of his match against Trump in the China Open were superb, and very reminiscent of how Higgins used to play all the time. It's a tough quarter of the draw, but I wouldn't put it past Higgins to come through. He is not right at the top of my list of favourites though.
Ding Junhui is one of the biggest mysteries in this year's draw. He held four major titles when the season started, so it must be disappointing for him to go into the World Championship holding none, after an extremely mediocre season. The first part actually wasn't too bad, but after the new year he went a long time without winning a single match, losing in the 1st round of six successive tournaments. All that fight he had last season seemed to go out of him, and he didn't get much luck either. The China Open showed a lot of positive signs for him though, on his way to the semi-finals he beat three players who had been playing well, and he showed a nice touch among the balls again. He also got in with some good long pots, mostly played at a slower pace and with nice control. He let it slip a little in the semi-finals, losing against a lower-ranked player from 3-1 up, but some of the shots he played in the decider when he was going for four snookers were just tremendous. It shows he still has the desire to win matches and tournaments, and the thing is, you don't forget how to play snooker in a year, so the player who won four major events last season is still around. Unfortunately his run in the China Open means he has overtaken Robertson in the rankings again, which puts him in a very tough quarter here. On top of that, the Crucible has never been his favourite venue. He doesn't seem to enjoy playing in front of a rowdy crowd, especially when they are against him. He turned 28 a few weeks back, so time is not exactly running out for him, but it will get more and more difficult the longer his bad run at the Crucible continues. I have my doubts about Ding, as I'm sure most people do, but if he came here with the kind of form he showed last season, he would still be one of the men to beat.
It will be very interesting to see what Shaun Murphy can do this year. My mother doesn't watch a lot of snooker, but for some reason she has developed a strong dislike of Murphy, especially after his pathetic performance against O'Sullivan last year, when he lost with a session to spare. So the first thing she asked me at the start of the season was whether Murphy was still playing, because in her opinion he should have hidden in a "mouse hole" and never come out again. :smile: Luckily Murphy had different ideas and has really raised his game this season, playing probably his best snooker since 2008. The season started pretty poorly for him, only one major quarter-final before the new year, and even then he should have won the match against Robertson, but he missed a sitter when something like 50 in front in the decider. He did something similar against Fu in the UK Championship, when he just needed the yellow in the decider, but he snookered himself behind the blue and allowed Fu to clear up and win on the black. At that point in the season he had not won a single match against a top16 seed in any major tournament, so it was a pleasant surprise to see him turn things around so dramatically after the new year. Selby had a scoring chance in the decider to take him out of the Masters in the 1st round, but Murphy survived, then went on to play some tremendous snooker that week, probably the best any player has played all season. Even when he went a couple of frames behind against Allen and Maguire he didn't panic, but instead continued to go for his shots with great confidence and came back very strongly. You could tell he fully expected everything to go in, because he made no effort to avoid cannoning into other balls on long pots, and to be fair, he hardly missed all week. His form continued into the German Masters, where he got close to winning back-to-back major titles, but he just came up a couple of frames short in the final. It was the kind of snooker that won him the World title in 2005, and this is probably his best chance in quite a while to win it for the second time. The problem is, with the kind of attacking game he plays he can't afford to start missing. Last month he played Ebdon in the World Grand Prix and finished the match on 0% long pot success, and it was clear to see how impotent his game was compared to the one that won him the Masters title. The question is which game he will bring to this tournament. One could easily win him the title, but the other could just as easily see him go out early. As I said, it will be interesting to see how he does.
And that just leaves the four players who are, in my opinion, the big favourites to win the World title this year.
Let's start with Neil Robertson, a player I have quite a few opinions about. It didn't take him long to get going this season, he won the Wuxi Classic right at the start and followed it up with another major final in the Australian Open, so it looked like he would have a really strong season, but unfortunately that was as good as it got for him. It's interesting, he has been such a great pressure player over the years, especially reliable at the business end of tournaments, but lately he has been less impressive in that regard. This season in particular he has found some really stupid ways to lose matches. He played an 80-minute decider against Mark Davis in the World Grand Prix, very fragmented and tactical, and when it came down to the last couple of balls, Robertson was perfectly on the pink with the angle to leave himself a mid-range black, but instead left himself a safety and lost the match two shots later. In the China Open a few weeks back he found himself in an almost identical situation against Dechawat Poomjaeng, and this time he did go for the black and missed it, even though it was the kind of pot Robertson usually gets without any problem. There was also the defeat against Maguire in the German Masters, when Maguire already needed two snookers in the decider, but Robertson fouled the black and gave seven points away, and Maguire cleared up to win. Another low point was his match against Gary Wilson in the Welsh Open, when he missed a thin safety three times in a row and gave the frame away, at a very crucial point in the match. He also lost from 3-0 up against Michael White in Shanghai and from 5-3 up against Swail in Chengdu, which would have been almost unheard of in the previous seasons. His performance against Murphy in the Masters was the worst he has ever played in a major final, although to be fair, Murphy did put him under pressure. Robertson's confidence doesn't seem to be as high as in the past, and I think he overthinks situations a lot of the time, especially under pressure. So, why is he among the favourites then? For a start, his scoring has been superb in the last two seasons, and when he backs it up with a strong long game he is extremely difficult to play against. He may be vulnerable in the 1st round, but once we get to the best-of-25 matches he is very difficult to outclass. The "worst" player to ever beat him over that length is Graeme Dott, and even that was before Robertson had won his first major title, his other defeats are all against the very top players. This year he has landed in a fairly favourable quarter, and he should be quite a strong favourite in every match until at least the semi-finals. As long as he keeps his head and believes in himself, he is in with a great chance.
Ronnie O'Sullivan is the bookies' favourite, as usual, and this time that's not too far from reality. He has played in the last three World finals and won two of them, which just shows how hard it's been to beat him in the longer matches since his return to form in 2012. He basically has two shots at every title. He can play his best and win in impressive style, like he did in the Champion of Champions this season, or he can play like he did in the UK Championship and still have a decent chance of winning, because he has such a huge psychological advantage over most of his opposition. As I said at the time, his UK performance was the worst anyone has needed to play to win one of the really big titles in the time I've been watching snooker, partly because the draw really opened up for him, and partly because a lot of the players simply don't have the belief they can beat him, and as a result they don't take their chances even when he has an off day. O'Sullivan's main strength remains his strong scoring, an element of the game very few players can match him in, even as he approaches 40 years of age. His long potting comes and goes with form, and his tactical game is not really in question, although his willingness to actually compete in the safety exchanges often depends on his general mindset. He is a superb front-runner, the list of players he has beaten with a session to spare at the Crucible (or came very close) is quite scary, so he often only needs a couple of strong frames to crack opponents. He has a very favourable draw here, with Williams, Walden and Bingham the other three seeds in his quarter, all players he has a very good record against. Like Robertson, he has a very good chance of reaching at least the semi-finals, and he will become tougher to beat with every round. Looking at potential weaknesses, his main problem could be the fact that he hasn't really found top form since the new year, although that didn't stop him reaching the final of the World Grand Prix last month. Another problem could be his struggle to close out matches this season. In all three finals he played against Trump he took control of the match early, then slowly let Trump back into the match in the evening session. The first time he still won reasonably comfortably, the second time he only just got over the line, but the third time he lost 10-7 from 7-4 up. He also lost to Williams for the first time in more than a decade in the International Championship this season, after leading 3-0 in the early stages of the match. In the German Masters he led Murphy 4-2 and had good chances to win, but ended up losing 5-4 on the black. I am not really sure, but I suspect that was the first time he has wasted a 4-2 lead in a best-of-9 in the time I've been watching snooker. All this may or may not be a result of losing the World final from such a strong position last year, but whatever it is, he can't afford to fall victim to it here. I have a feeling he will be alright.
Judd Trump has been one of the best players this season, and he has a chance to finish it on a really high note. Like Robertson, he too won a major title very early, the Australian Open in the summer, and it seemed to relax him and give him confidence for the rest of the season. I was very critical of him when he failed to win the UK title, because I felt he had played much better snooker than O'Sullivan that week, but I suppose he redeemed himself by beating O'Sullivan in the final of the World Grand Prix last month. He was very honest in the post-match interview, talking about how nervous he always felt when playing O'Sullivan, but I suspect he will play with a lot more confidence against him now. His other two bogey players in recent years have been Maguire, who is in the other half of the draw here, and Higgins, whom Trump could potentially play in the quarter-finals. Higgins has won all six of their previous major meetings, including a World final, a ranking final, a best-of-9 from 4-0 down, and of course that dramatic match in China a few weeks ago, so I suspect Trump will be hoping to avoid him here. He is not very likely to meet Williams either, the player who knocked him out of three tournaments recently, although I would make Trump favourite even if they did meet here. Another thing he will probably have to deal with is the constant media hype that surrounds him in the BBC tournaments, although I suspect O'Sullivan and Selby will be getting similar treatment. On the table Trump is pretty bulletproof these days. He has made more centuries than any other player this season, his safety has mostly been good as well, particularly in the World Grand Prix, and his long potting remains a big edge over most of his competition. He has also learned not to give up when he goes behind in matches. His comebacks against O'Sullivan in all three finals were superb, as was the comeback against Martin Gould from 5-1 down in the semi-finals of the World Grand Prix. He was never really a bad safety player, but he played a pretty one-dimensional game when he reached the World final in 2011, whereas now I think he is the complete player. He is a few months younger than O'Sullivan was when he won his first World title, so I would expect him to be among the tournament favourites for at least the next decade. Can he win it as early as this year?
And we conclude with Mark Selby, the defending champion. There is bound to be a lot of talk about the Crucible Curse and stuff like that, and while I'm not a big fan of that term, it is true that defending this title will be difficult. In a couple of hours his 1st round opponent will be known, with quite a few players who could cause him problems waiting in the draw, and even if he does survive, that 2nd round match against Maguire looks exactly like the kind of obstacle defending champions often trip over. Winning the China Open immediately prior to the World Championship is considered a kind of a curse in itself by some people, but to be fair, winning back-to-back major titles at any point in the season is pretty rare these days, so it's not really anything unique to these two events. It's really tough to think of any weaknesses with Selby... Perhaps the motivation won't be quite the same as it was last year, now that he has already achieved his ultimate goal, or perhaps he will have one of those tournaments where he really struggles with fluency, but it seems unlikely. He is the only player to hold three major titles at the moment, and he looks set to extend his lead at the top of the world rankings, so I think he has a good claim for being called the best player in the world and the man to beat in this Championship. He plays the game of snooker with great heart, and he has that rare ability to maintain his composure under the biggest pressure. He is probably the best tactician in the game, and one of the best scorers, even if he does sometimes make the game look quite difficult. He landed in what is probably the second toughest quarter here, but it's pointless to look for bogey players, because Selby doesn't really have any. I think the first two rounds will be where he is the most vulnerable, but once he plays himself into the tournament it will probably take a great performance from one of the top players to beat him. I don't know whether Selby can defend this title, but win or lose, it should be great entertainment as always.
I think that's about all I have to say for now, but I'm looking forward to seeing how the draw works out today. :smile:
So, who do you think is going to win the 2015 World Championship?
John Higgins
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