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Originally Posted by Odrl
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So, the second major ranking event of the season starts on Monday...
It's best-of-9 stuff again, and a world-class field. Only three notable players are missing. The first is Ali Carter, who would have been 1st seed as defending champion, but he has surprisingly decided not to enter this event. Also missing are Ronnie O'Sullivan, somewhat less surprisingly, and Judd Trump, the only top player who got knocked out in the qualifiers for this event.
My time is extremely limited this weekend, so I won't go into too much detail, but just a sentence or two about the main contenders in each section...
Quarter 1:
Mark Selby/Kritsanut Lertsattayathorn v. Lee Walker
Robert Milkins v. Jamie Jones
Anthony McGill v. Duane Jones
Stephen Maguire v. Ken Doherty
Michael White/Ma Chunmao v. Cao Yupeng
Stuart Bingham v. Alfie Burden
Luca Brecel v. Mike Dunn
Shaun Murphy v. Daniel Wells
Mark Selby has a relatively difficult route to the quarter-finals, but we know he is the man to beat when we get to matches of medium length or longer. He won approximately half of the events of that type last season, a domination we had not seen in more than a decade. His showing in the China Championship was not the best, but it's not unusual for the World champion to have a slow start to the season. This event is the first in a bloc of major and medium-sized events that follow one another fairly regularly until the new year, so I think we will see Selby regaining his form again at some point in the coming months. Anthony McGill should be his biggest obstacle in this section. As I type this, he is still involved in the final of the Indian Open against Higgins, so win or lose, he will be coming here on the back of a good run. He also did well in the short format in Riga, but not so much in the China Championship last month. There have been quite a few notable matches between players in this section in recent times, so it will be interesting to see how it all plays out. Stephen Maguire and Ken Doherty, for example, played each other in the semi-finals of the Riga Masters at the start of the season, with Maguire winning 5-4. Both have been surprisingly consistent, Doherty getting through the qualifiers very reliably, and Maguire almost looking like a contender again, after struggling for the best part of last season. It's a little harsh for McGill to run into one of these two as early as the last32 stage, but that's just the way it is these days. Doherty of course beat him in the quarter-finals in Riga, while Maguire thrashed him 10-2 in the 1st round of the World Championship a few months ago. Also in this section is Robert Milkins, fairly quiet so far this season, but he has always played some of his best snooker in China. I also wouldn't rule out Jamie Jones here, a semi-finalist in the recent Paul Hunter Classic.
Moving on, the other half of this quarter looks just as tough, perhaps even tougher. The thing that immediately stands out is the fact that Shaun Murphy and Luca Brecel could meet in the last32 here, and that would of course be a repeat of the China Championship final, which Brecel won 10-5. As we said after that final, it will be interesting to see what happens with the rest of Brecel's season. Will he get complacent and drop back into mediocrity, or will he build on his success and become a genuine contender in the major events? He must surely realize he could have easily gone out against O'Sullivan or Li in Guangzhou, as both players had scoring chances to beat him, so a lot of work is still needed for him reach the level of some of the top players. Murphy himself played quite poorly against him in the final, although that was less surprising, because I felt like he had not been particularly great in previous rounds either. Still, he went on to reach the final of the Paul Hunter Classic a few days later, so he is one of the better performers of the season so far. Michael White beat Murphy in that PHC final, and he also beat Selby in a previous round, so he too comes here on the back of a good result. The problem with him is, he is in his mid 20s now, and he has never really proven himself outside of the short format. He has reached a couple of quarter-finals, sure, but he has never contested a major semi-final, which is somewhat surprising and a little disappointing for a player who has been on the scene for quite some time now. Of the four prominent players in this section, Stuart Bingham has been the least impressive this season, but my gut feeling is that it could be he who goes through. His form is bound to return at some point, and his performances in China are traditionally very strong. It's tough to see anyone else making it through here. I usually mention the home players, but apart from getting to the venue stage of each event he has entered this season, there is just nothing about Cao Yupeng lately that inspires any confidence. Mike Dunn could be a better bet perhaps, he got to the last16 in Guangzhou and lost to Brecel, his 1st round opponent here.
Quarter 2:
Marco Fu v. Ian Burns
Graeme Dott v. Peter Ebdon
Liang Wenbo/Akani Songsermsawad v. Li Hang
Ricky Walden v. Andrew Higginson
Joe Perry v. Yu Delu
Ryan Day v. Gary Wilson
Dominic Dale v. Xiao Guodong
Ding Junhui/Hammad Miah v. Zhang Anda
I think the other three quarters all compare unfavourably to the first one, strength-wise at least, but there is still some quality in each of them. Here we have a couple of good players who have not played a lot of snooker recently. Marco Fu and Liang Wenbo are the biggest names these days, but they both decided to skip most of the summer events. Fu is of course looking for a better start to the season than last year, when he was pretty awful until late November, while Liang is looking to improve his record in China, which has been surprisingly mediocre for many years now. Also here is Ricky Walden, a winner of three major ranking events in China in the past, which is a statistic very few players in the game can match. There was an article about him on the World Snooker website recently, where he talked about his struggles with injury in recent times. I forget what it was exactly, but apparently he is finally a bit better again, and a run to the last16 in India suggests he could be a danger again in the near future. Graeme Dott got to the last16 of the China Championship last month, but we have to go back a year and a half to find his most recent major quarter-final. None of these four seem like a reliable bet at the moment, so I think this is a section where surprises are possible. Peter Ebdon has been waiting even longer than Dott for a major result, but he has at least reached the quarter-finals of a short-format event in that time. It's been a long time since he last beat Dott though... Ian Burns reached the quarter-finals of the Paul Hunter Classic last month, and he is always a danger on these travels to China. Andrew Higginson was a quarter-finalist in Riga, and even Akani Songsermsawad has a decent run to his name this season, having reached the last16 of the Indian Open. But the most likely danger to the top players in this section if of course Li Hang, a semi-finalist in the China Championship last month. He is 26 now, so in a way it's not surprising that he made a little breakthrough, but the way in which he played in Guangzhou was unexpected. He was extremely steady, playing some high quality safety, and he was never rattled by any setbacks, even when he went a couple of frames behind in matches. If he plays like that again, there really is no reason for him not to have a very good season, but of course it's easier said than done. Also, he has played three major matches against Liang in the past, and Liang has won very comfortably each time.
The next section is another one where lots of outcomes are possible, but Ding Junhui is still a big obstacle for everyone else to overcome. Well, he is similar to the likes of Fu and Liang, in the sense that he hasn't played a lot of snooker recently, and his performance in the China Championship was disappointing, ending in a 5-0 whitewash by Alan McManus. The Shanghai Masters occupied this calendar slot last year, and Ding won that tournament, so perhaps it's time for him to get going here. His main opponent on paper should be Ryan Day, the reigning Riga Masters champion and a player who has always played well in China. As has Joe Perry, who narrowly missed out on winning his first major ranking title in this tournament a year ago, losing 10-8 to Carter in the final. Perry also did okay in Riga, losing to Day in the quarter-finals, but he followed it up with a disappointing 1st round exit in Guangzhou. He was my pick to reach the quarter-finals that week, so I won't be picking him again here. :smile: Of the outsiders, I think Gary Wilson is the best bet. He was runner-up in the China Open two years ago, and he reached the quarter-finals of the Paul Hunter Classic last month. Zhang Anda reached the quarters this week in India, so he is clearly playing well at the moment, but of course it's always difficult for the Chinese players to come up against Ding in their opening match. The other two Chinese players, Xiao Guodong and Yu Delu, are both familiar names, but there is just nothing positive to point out in their recent results. Similar story with Dominic Dale, a player who has done nothing notable in the major events in more than three years, although on the other hand, he hasn't gone through any periods of particularly terrible results either. As I said, a very tricky part of the draw to call...
Quarter 3:
John Astley v. Sam Craigie
Tom Ford v. Jimmy Robertson/Luo Honghao
Mark Williams v. Matthew Stevens
Mark King v. Chen Zhe
Michael Holt v. Mark Joyce
Kyren Wilson v. Hossein Vafaei
Alan McManus/Hu Hao v. Thepchaiya Un-Nooh
Barry Hawkins v. Chris Wakelin
The third quarter is perhaps the weakest of all. Immediately apparent is the unusual pairing at the top where Judd Trump was supposed to be. It was Sam Craigie who took him out, beating him 5-0 in the qualifiers, but that was a while back, so it's questionable whether Craigie's form has held up. I think we have to look at the more familiar players to find our quarter-finalist... Mark Williams looks like the best bet, traditionally very strong in China, and his start to the season has been quite good, the quarter-finals in Guangzhou and the semi-finals in Riga. He lost 10-2 to Matthew Stevens when they met at the Crucible two years ago, so I'm sure he will be looking to settle the score here. It's more than three years since Stevens last reached a major quarter-final, so his run to the last16 in Guangzhou last month was already a pleasant surprise. Can he go one better here? Mark King completes the trio of likely contenders in this section, another veteran of the game. He too has never had any particular problems playing in China, and he has been in good form in the short-format stuff this season, most notably getting to the semi-finals of the Indian Open just now. The title he won last year has surely given him a boost of confidence and motivation, and it could make him a danger in the major events as well. The other player I would mention here is Tom Ford, who has a reasonably easy route to the last16, having reached that stage in the China Championship last month. It's tough to see any of the outsiders going through here, but Jimmy Robertson seems like the most likely candidate if it does happen.
I think the second part of this quarter has greater depth, with at least seven players who could do something, but it's missing an in-form top player. Barry Hawkins was exactly that for most of last season, but this season we are still waiting for him to do something notable. I'm not sure it will be this week though, because none of his best results in recent times have come in China. Kyren Wilson would normally be the first in line to take advantage, but he too has been quiet this season, even missing out on the China Championship by losing in the qualifiers. He had a reasonably good last season, but of course he needs to push on now. There are a lot of titles on offer these days, so Wilson can't really be happy with not winning anything for two years, especially when events are won by veterans such as Hamilton and King... Anyway, we also have Michael Holt in this section, another one of those players who usually play well abroad, although he too has not featured at the business end of any events this season. His best result is a run to the last16 of the Indian Open, exactly the same as Hossein Vafaei. Of course Vafaei got to the semi-finals of the China Open at the end of last season, so it will be interesting to see if he can push on from there. Thepchaiya Un-Nooh is a similar case, a semi-finalist in this event last season, although he is of course a more experienced player who has produced patches of good form several times in recent years. The other two of my seven possible contenders are Alan McManus and Mark Joyce, both trying to recover after quite a poor last season. Both have shown some promising signs already, McManus by getting to the last16 of the China Championship, and Joyce with runs to the quarter-finals of the Riga Masters and the Paul Hunter Classic, both in the short format.
Quarter 4:
Neil Robertson v. Noppon Saengkham
Ben Woollaston v. Eden Sharav
Mark Allen v. Oliver Lines
Michael Georgiou v. Allan Taylor
David Gilbert v. Tian Pengfei
Martin Gould/Fan Zhengyi v. Jack Lisowski
Matthew Selt v. Elliot Slessor
John Higgins v. Alexander Ursenbacher
Neil Robertson has a fairly easy draw on this occasion. A lot has been said about his struggles in the second half of last season, and I for one thought that winning the Hong Kong Masters would perhaps prove to be a turning point for him, but he went out in the opening round of the China Championship last month. In hindsight, Li Hang played the best tournament of his career there, so it was a little harsh for Robertson to draw him in the 1st round. Playing Noppon Saengkham should prove a little easier, especially as Robertson beat him fairly comfortably at the Crucible last season. Saengkham has only reached one major quarter-final in his career so far, but it did happen in China. Realistically, the only player in this section anywhere near Robertson's class is Mark Allen, but he has struggled even worse than Robertson to put any results together recently. The only thing in his favour is his surprisingly good record in China, which includes two World Open titles in the past. That was at a time when the tournament was played in Haikou though, and its calendar slot was much later in the season, so it doesn't really have too much in common with this year's edition. Ben Woollaston is probably the next best bet, a quarter-finalist in the Paul Hunter Classic this season. He is a former Welsh Open finalist, so it's easy to overlook this statistic, but I think I'm right in saying that he has never actually reached the quarter-finals of any event with matches of at least medium length, and that's a fairly worrying fact for a player ranked in the top32. It's tough to see anyone else progressing from this section, in all honesty. Oliver Lines is a decent prospect, but there is just nothing in his recent results to suggest he could come through. I think we will see another round of the Robertson-Allen rivalry, and the last seven have all gone in Robertson's favour, at least as far as the major events are concerned, so Robertson has to be a strong favourite in this section.
And that leaves us with a fairly interesting section to conclude with. The Indian Open final is over by now and John Higgins is the champion, which makes him one of the men to beat next week. Well, he would have been anyway, because he is comfortably in the top4 of the rankings at the moment and enjoying a strong period of results, which includes a couple of titles in China recently. His biggest danger in this section could perhaps be David Gilbert, the player Higgins beat in the final of the International Championship two years ago. Gilbert was a quarter-finalist here last year, and he's just had a fairly good week in India, reaching another quarter-final. Martin Gould is always a danger as well, struggling pretty badly to find any consistently lately, but he did okay in the China Championship, reaching the last16. I don't think Matthew Selt is a particularly good bet at the moment. Robertson expected him to get into the top16 a season or two back, but instead he went in the other direction and has dropped out of the top32 now, after what was a pretty dreadful last season for him. Jack Lisowski knows all about going in the wrong direction, never really developing into the kind of player some people predicted he would become, but there is still time of course. Tian Pengfei is perhaps an older version of that same scenario, and he does seem to be playing a little better again in recent times, so I always mention him when I see his name in the draw. Could he finally make a breakthrough here? Elliot Slessor is definitely worth mentioning on this occasion as well, after a very good week in India, where he reached the quarter-finals. Higgins is a big obstacle for anyone, but the other players in this section are all very beatable, so things could happen...
Possible QF line-up:
Mark Selby v. Stuart Bingham
Marco Fu v. Ding Junhui
Mark Williams v. Michael Holt
Neil Robertson v. John Higgins
There we are. Busy day tomorrow, so I'm glad I got this done a little earlier than usual. :smile: Should be a good week of snooker. :smile:
It's best-of-9 stuff again, and a world-class field. Only three notable players are missing. The first is Ali Carter, who would have been 1st seed as defending champion, but he has surprisingly decided not to enter this event. Also missing are Ronnie O'Sullivan, somewhat less surprisingly, and Judd Trump, the only top player who got knocked out in the qualifiers for this event.
My time is extremely limited this weekend, so I won't go into too much detail, but just a sentence or two about the main contenders in each section...
Quarter 1:
Mark Selby/Kritsanut Lertsattayathorn v. Lee Walker
Robert Milkins v. Jamie Jones
Anthony McGill v. Duane Jones
Stephen Maguire v. Ken Doherty
Michael White/Ma Chunmao v. Cao Yupeng
Stuart Bingham v. Alfie Burden
Luca Brecel v. Mike Dunn
Shaun Murphy v. Daniel Wells
Mark Selby has a relatively difficult route to the quarter-finals, but we know he is the man to beat when we get to matches of medium length or longer. He won approximately half of the events of that type last season, a domination we had not seen in more than a decade. His showing in the China Championship was not the best, but it's not unusual for the World champion to have a slow start to the season. This event is the first in a bloc of major and medium-sized events that follow one another fairly regularly until the new year, so I think we will see Selby regaining his form again at some point in the coming months. Anthony McGill should be his biggest obstacle in this section. As I type this, he is still involved in the final of the Indian Open against Higgins, so win or lose, he will be coming here on the back of a good run. He also did well in the short format in Riga, but not so much in the China Championship last month. There have been quite a few notable matches between players in this section in recent times, so it will be interesting to see how it all plays out. Stephen Maguire and Ken Doherty, for example, played each other in the semi-finals of the Riga Masters at the start of the season, with Maguire winning 5-4. Both have been surprisingly consistent, Doherty getting through the qualifiers very reliably, and Maguire almost looking like a contender again, after struggling for the best part of last season. It's a little harsh for McGill to run into one of these two as early as the last32 stage, but that's just the way it is these days. Doherty of course beat him in the quarter-finals in Riga, while Maguire thrashed him 10-2 in the 1st round of the World Championship a few months ago. Also in this section is Robert Milkins, fairly quiet so far this season, but he has always played some of his best snooker in China. I also wouldn't rule out Jamie Jones here, a semi-finalist in the recent Paul Hunter Classic.
Moving on, the other half of this quarter looks just as tough, perhaps even tougher. The thing that immediately stands out is the fact that Shaun Murphy and Luca Brecel could meet in the last32 here, and that would of course be a repeat of the China Championship final, which Brecel won 10-5. As we said after that final, it will be interesting to see what happens with the rest of Brecel's season. Will he get complacent and drop back into mediocrity, or will he build on his success and become a genuine contender in the major events? He must surely realize he could have easily gone out against O'Sullivan or Li in Guangzhou, as both players had scoring chances to beat him, so a lot of work is still needed for him reach the level of some of the top players. Murphy himself played quite poorly against him in the final, although that was less surprising, because I felt like he had not been particularly great in previous rounds either. Still, he went on to reach the final of the Paul Hunter Classic a few days later, so he is one of the better performers of the season so far. Michael White beat Murphy in that PHC final, and he also beat Selby in a previous round, so he too comes here on the back of a good result. The problem with him is, he is in his mid 20s now, and he has never really proven himself outside of the short format. He has reached a couple of quarter-finals, sure, but he has never contested a major semi-final, which is somewhat surprising and a little disappointing for a player who has been on the scene for quite some time now. Of the four prominent players in this section, Stuart Bingham has been the least impressive this season, but my gut feeling is that it could be he who goes through. His form is bound to return at some point, and his performances in China are traditionally very strong. It's tough to see anyone else making it through here. I usually mention the home players, but apart from getting to the venue stage of each event he has entered this season, there is just nothing about Cao Yupeng lately that inspires any confidence. Mike Dunn could be a better bet perhaps, he got to the last16 in Guangzhou and lost to Brecel, his 1st round opponent here.
Quarter 2:
Marco Fu v. Ian Burns
Graeme Dott v. Peter Ebdon
Liang Wenbo/Akani Songsermsawad v. Li Hang
Ricky Walden v. Andrew Higginson
Joe Perry v. Yu Delu
Ryan Day v. Gary Wilson
Dominic Dale v. Xiao Guodong
Ding Junhui/Hammad Miah v. Zhang Anda
I think the other three quarters all compare unfavourably to the first one, strength-wise at least, but there is still some quality in each of them. Here we have a couple of good players who have not played a lot of snooker recently. Marco Fu and Liang Wenbo are the biggest names these days, but they both decided to skip most of the summer events. Fu is of course looking for a better start to the season than last year, when he was pretty awful until late November, while Liang is looking to improve his record in China, which has been surprisingly mediocre for many years now. Also here is Ricky Walden, a winner of three major ranking events in China in the past, which is a statistic very few players in the game can match. There was an article about him on the World Snooker website recently, where he talked about his struggles with injury in recent times. I forget what it was exactly, but apparently he is finally a bit better again, and a run to the last16 in India suggests he could be a danger again in the near future. Graeme Dott got to the last16 of the China Championship last month, but we have to go back a year and a half to find his most recent major quarter-final. None of these four seem like a reliable bet at the moment, so I think this is a section where surprises are possible. Peter Ebdon has been waiting even longer than Dott for a major result, but he has at least reached the quarter-finals of a short-format event in that time. It's been a long time since he last beat Dott though... Ian Burns reached the quarter-finals of the Paul Hunter Classic last month, and he is always a danger on these travels to China. Andrew Higginson was a quarter-finalist in Riga, and even Akani Songsermsawad has a decent run to his name this season, having reached the last16 of the Indian Open. But the most likely danger to the top players in this section if of course Li Hang, a semi-finalist in the China Championship last month. He is 26 now, so in a way it's not surprising that he made a little breakthrough, but the way in which he played in Guangzhou was unexpected. He was extremely steady, playing some high quality safety, and he was never rattled by any setbacks, even when he went a couple of frames behind in matches. If he plays like that again, there really is no reason for him not to have a very good season, but of course it's easier said than done. Also, he has played three major matches against Liang in the past, and Liang has won very comfortably each time.
The next section is another one where lots of outcomes are possible, but Ding Junhui is still a big obstacle for everyone else to overcome. Well, he is similar to the likes of Fu and Liang, in the sense that he hasn't played a lot of snooker recently, and his performance in the China Championship was disappointing, ending in a 5-0 whitewash by Alan McManus. The Shanghai Masters occupied this calendar slot last year, and Ding won that tournament, so perhaps it's time for him to get going here. His main opponent on paper should be Ryan Day, the reigning Riga Masters champion and a player who has always played well in China. As has Joe Perry, who narrowly missed out on winning his first major ranking title in this tournament a year ago, losing 10-8 to Carter in the final. Perry also did okay in Riga, losing to Day in the quarter-finals, but he followed it up with a disappointing 1st round exit in Guangzhou. He was my pick to reach the quarter-finals that week, so I won't be picking him again here. :smile: Of the outsiders, I think Gary Wilson is the best bet. He was runner-up in the China Open two years ago, and he reached the quarter-finals of the Paul Hunter Classic last month. Zhang Anda reached the quarters this week in India, so he is clearly playing well at the moment, but of course it's always difficult for the Chinese players to come up against Ding in their opening match. The other two Chinese players, Xiao Guodong and Yu Delu, are both familiar names, but there is just nothing positive to point out in their recent results. Similar story with Dominic Dale, a player who has done nothing notable in the major events in more than three years, although on the other hand, he hasn't gone through any periods of particularly terrible results either. As I said, a very tricky part of the draw to call...
Quarter 3:
John Astley v. Sam Craigie
Tom Ford v. Jimmy Robertson/Luo Honghao
Mark Williams v. Matthew Stevens
Mark King v. Chen Zhe
Michael Holt v. Mark Joyce
Kyren Wilson v. Hossein Vafaei
Alan McManus/Hu Hao v. Thepchaiya Un-Nooh
Barry Hawkins v. Chris Wakelin
The third quarter is perhaps the weakest of all. Immediately apparent is the unusual pairing at the top where Judd Trump was supposed to be. It was Sam Craigie who took him out, beating him 5-0 in the qualifiers, but that was a while back, so it's questionable whether Craigie's form has held up. I think we have to look at the more familiar players to find our quarter-finalist... Mark Williams looks like the best bet, traditionally very strong in China, and his start to the season has been quite good, the quarter-finals in Guangzhou and the semi-finals in Riga. He lost 10-2 to Matthew Stevens when they met at the Crucible two years ago, so I'm sure he will be looking to settle the score here. It's more than three years since Stevens last reached a major quarter-final, so his run to the last16 in Guangzhou last month was already a pleasant surprise. Can he go one better here? Mark King completes the trio of likely contenders in this section, another veteran of the game. He too has never had any particular problems playing in China, and he has been in good form in the short-format stuff this season, most notably getting to the semi-finals of the Indian Open just now. The title he won last year has surely given him a boost of confidence and motivation, and it could make him a danger in the major events as well. The other player I would mention here is Tom Ford, who has a reasonably easy route to the last16, having reached that stage in the China Championship last month. It's tough to see any of the outsiders going through here, but Jimmy Robertson seems like the most likely candidate if it does happen.
I think the second part of this quarter has greater depth, with at least seven players who could do something, but it's missing an in-form top player. Barry Hawkins was exactly that for most of last season, but this season we are still waiting for him to do something notable. I'm not sure it will be this week though, because none of his best results in recent times have come in China. Kyren Wilson would normally be the first in line to take advantage, but he too has been quiet this season, even missing out on the China Championship by losing in the qualifiers. He had a reasonably good last season, but of course he needs to push on now. There are a lot of titles on offer these days, so Wilson can't really be happy with not winning anything for two years, especially when events are won by veterans such as Hamilton and King... Anyway, we also have Michael Holt in this section, another one of those players who usually play well abroad, although he too has not featured at the business end of any events this season. His best result is a run to the last16 of the Indian Open, exactly the same as Hossein Vafaei. Of course Vafaei got to the semi-finals of the China Open at the end of last season, so it will be interesting to see if he can push on from there. Thepchaiya Un-Nooh is a similar case, a semi-finalist in this event last season, although he is of course a more experienced player who has produced patches of good form several times in recent years. The other two of my seven possible contenders are Alan McManus and Mark Joyce, both trying to recover after quite a poor last season. Both have shown some promising signs already, McManus by getting to the last16 of the China Championship, and Joyce with runs to the quarter-finals of the Riga Masters and the Paul Hunter Classic, both in the short format.
Quarter 4:
Neil Robertson v. Noppon Saengkham
Ben Woollaston v. Eden Sharav
Mark Allen v. Oliver Lines
Michael Georgiou v. Allan Taylor
David Gilbert v. Tian Pengfei
Martin Gould/Fan Zhengyi v. Jack Lisowski
Matthew Selt v. Elliot Slessor
John Higgins v. Alexander Ursenbacher
Neil Robertson has a fairly easy draw on this occasion. A lot has been said about his struggles in the second half of last season, and I for one thought that winning the Hong Kong Masters would perhaps prove to be a turning point for him, but he went out in the opening round of the China Championship last month. In hindsight, Li Hang played the best tournament of his career there, so it was a little harsh for Robertson to draw him in the 1st round. Playing Noppon Saengkham should prove a little easier, especially as Robertson beat him fairly comfortably at the Crucible last season. Saengkham has only reached one major quarter-final in his career so far, but it did happen in China. Realistically, the only player in this section anywhere near Robertson's class is Mark Allen, but he has struggled even worse than Robertson to put any results together recently. The only thing in his favour is his surprisingly good record in China, which includes two World Open titles in the past. That was at a time when the tournament was played in Haikou though, and its calendar slot was much later in the season, so it doesn't really have too much in common with this year's edition. Ben Woollaston is probably the next best bet, a quarter-finalist in the Paul Hunter Classic this season. He is a former Welsh Open finalist, so it's easy to overlook this statistic, but I think I'm right in saying that he has never actually reached the quarter-finals of any event with matches of at least medium length, and that's a fairly worrying fact for a player ranked in the top32. It's tough to see anyone else progressing from this section, in all honesty. Oliver Lines is a decent prospect, but there is just nothing in his recent results to suggest he could come through. I think we will see another round of the Robertson-Allen rivalry, and the last seven have all gone in Robertson's favour, at least as far as the major events are concerned, so Robertson has to be a strong favourite in this section.
And that leaves us with a fairly interesting section to conclude with. The Indian Open final is over by now and John Higgins is the champion, which makes him one of the men to beat next week. Well, he would have been anyway, because he is comfortably in the top4 of the rankings at the moment and enjoying a strong period of results, which includes a couple of titles in China recently. His biggest danger in this section could perhaps be David Gilbert, the player Higgins beat in the final of the International Championship two years ago. Gilbert was a quarter-finalist here last year, and he's just had a fairly good week in India, reaching another quarter-final. Martin Gould is always a danger as well, struggling pretty badly to find any consistently lately, but he did okay in the China Championship, reaching the last16. I don't think Matthew Selt is a particularly good bet at the moment. Robertson expected him to get into the top16 a season or two back, but instead he went in the other direction and has dropped out of the top32 now, after what was a pretty dreadful last season for him. Jack Lisowski knows all about going in the wrong direction, never really developing into the kind of player some people predicted he would become, but there is still time of course. Tian Pengfei is perhaps an older version of that same scenario, and he does seem to be playing a little better again in recent times, so I always mention him when I see his name in the draw. Could he finally make a breakthrough here? Elliot Slessor is definitely worth mentioning on this occasion as well, after a very good week in India, where he reached the quarter-finals. Higgins is a big obstacle for anyone, but the other players in this section are all very beatable, so things could happen...
Possible QF line-up:
Mark Selby v. Stuart Bingham
Marco Fu v. Ding Junhui
Mark Williams v. Michael Holt
Neil Robertson v. John Higgins
There we are. Busy day tomorrow, so I'm glad I got this done a little earlier than usual. :smile: Should be a good week of snooker. :smile:
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