2018 World Championship

[narl]

After all the "Selby-O'Sullivan final" chat I'd absolutely love it if they both went out in round one

Would be pretty funny as people seem to write off a lot of players in this like beating them is a formality.

[Dark]

Ronnie has now lost 10 of his last 11 frames of snooker, the other one was a maximum.

He still has plenty of time, but needs to start winning frames soon, very soon.

[blahblah01]

I'm not sure that was true this year (the inevitablity of Selby vs ROS) with plenty of us saying that the top and bottom Quarters are the hardest...

Stevens started well, and is now melting down.....

[Dark]

Stevens not playing for 1 snooker. Strange.

[JimMalone]

Would be pretty funny as people seem to write off a lot of players in this like beating them is a formality.

I definitely don't think that winning any match at the World Championship is a formality, but I admit that it would be a huge surprise for me to see both of the big favorites go out in the first round.

[kligu]

What are the odds for Ronnie threatening to retire after the match?

[jonny66]

What are the odds for Ronnie threatening to retire after the match?

If he loses? I don't think there's a bookmaker in the world that would take that bet

Barry Hearn must be ****ting himself right now.

[Stony152]

I'm not sure that was true this year (the inevitablity of Selby vs ROS)

The number #1 and #2 seeds haven't met in a final at the crucible in over 30 years. In fact the Math says that it should happen very rarely. Let's give each of them a 70% chance of winning their first round match. 65% in the second, 60% in the quarters, and 55% in the semis.

The odds of them winning those eight matches to meet in the final are......

0.70*0.70*0.65*0.65*0.60*0.60*0.55*0.55 = 0.023 = 2.3% chance is once every 44 years

That seems about right. Even if Selby and O'Sullivan were both 80% to win it was 0.20*0.20 = 0.040 =4% chance that they both lose. Much much better chance than lightning striking you or winning the lottery.

[blahblah01]

Some bod on Eurosport said that the last time 1 and 2 Seeds lost in 1st Round was 1982 (Thorburn and Davis), with Johnson vs Davis the last 1&2 Seed Final.

[Stony152]

Some bod on Eurosport said that the last time 1 and 2 Seeds lost in 1st Round was 1982 (Thorburn and Davis), with Johnson vs Davis the last 1&2 Seed Final.

See above calculations. I think the odds of both losing in the first round are higher than both reaching the final. That seems counter-intuitive, but you have to remember that one requires only two unlikely results, while the other requires eight likely results.

[blahblah01]

Yep to the 2 vs many events bit.

I guess doing the stats on when they have gone out in the last however many years would prove it....

Similarly with 1&2 in the World?

[blahblah01]

3-4, didn't take long.....

[JimMalone]

Whoa. Horrible miss by Maguire. A shame, that was a great chance to up 5-3.

Edit: And O'Sullivan gifts it right back to him.

[Hey]

Goat under pressure

[narl]

Goat under pressure

The current scoreline would say otherwise.