2018 World Championship

[DeanH]

Ding - that blue down close to the rail was superb - even brought a smile to his own face there for a second

[blahblah01]

It was just as though he’d had a brain fart and didn’t realise he could put him back in.

Allen "(I) was scared that he would get the Plant"

[blahblah01]

Nealry as well as Xiao, who opened with a Ton

[blahblah01]

I didn't see that, but it can't be as bad as Highfield not keep putting Allen in on the Green...

Jamie and the Magic Cue cuing well.....

[Billy]

It was just as though he’d had a brain fart and didn’t realise he could put him back in.

[blahblah01]

My numbers might be slightly on the low side, but yours are too high.

yep way too high at 9 in 10 - or once in 5 WC's one goes out.....

Surely the Historical Data is the place to start, rather than guessing?

[jrc750]

I’m on my phone so scrolling back through posts is a pain. Sorry if it been discussed, but the incident earlier when Highfield declares a foul and left Allen pondering on a tricky situation for nearly five minutes. Was Allen actually aware he could have put Highfield back in? It seemed odd that he didn’t fancy the plant but was concerned his opponent would pull it off.

He did seem to take far too long to decide what to do, personally i liked the idea mentioned of using the free ball to put the black safe

[Billy]

I’m on my phone so scrolling back through posts is a pain. Sorry if it been discussed, but the incident earlier when Highfield declares a foul and left Allen pondering on a tricky situation for nearly five minutes. Was Allen actually aware he could have put Highfield back in? It seemed odd that he didn’t fancy the plant but was concerned his opponent would pull it off.

[Odrl]

Selby was 1/4 on some sites and 1/5 on others so an 80-83% favorite. O'Sullivan was 1/6 so about 86%.

It's different depending on the players involved though. Selby and O'Sullivan just happened to draw Perry and Maguire this year, but they could have easily drawn someone like Highfield or Carrington and their odds would have been very different. :smile:

[Stony152]

Interesting post. My reply is probably redundant given that Selby is out by I love stats!

The thing is though that the number 1 and 2 meeting in the final has a higher probability of happening than any other combination of finalists (assuming they are favourites for each match).

Also I would argue that selby and ronnie are far bigger favourites to to win their respective matches than you pointed out.
I would probably say they are;
90% Favourites in the first round
80% in Second
70% QF
65% SF

That changes the odds to 0.9*0.9*0.8*0.8*0.7*0.7*0.65*0.65 = 0.107... which is a 10% chance of it happening. Seems a lot more reasonable. However without crunching the numbers, on first thought most of us would say that a 10% chance of a ROS v Selby final sounds way too low. Only when you go through the probabilities round by round do you get to 10%

My numbers might be slightly on the low side, but yours are too high. A player is rarely if ever a 90% favorite in ANY professional tour level snooker match. Just look at betting odds. I don't remember ever seeing a player 1/9 to win a match at this level on any betting site. Selby was 1/4 on some sites and 1/5 on others so an 80-83% favorite. O'Sullivan was 1/6 so about 86%. I'd also argue that the odds in subsequent rounds decrease more quickly. Selby wouldn't have been an 80% favorite against Mark Allen.

As a compromise, let's go with...

0.83*0.83*0.75*0.75*0.65*065*0.60*0.60 = 0.059 = 5.9% (once every 17 years)

It hasn't happened in over 30 years, which may be an anomaly but it's definitely a much rarer event than you would think before looking at the Math. I love stats too!!!!!!!

[strike101]

The number #1 and #2 seeds haven't met in a final at the crucible in over 30 years. In fact the Math says that it should happen very rarely. Let's give each of them a 70% chance of winning their first round match. 65% in the second, 60% in the quarters, and 55% in the semis.

The odds of them winning those eight matches to meet in the final are......

0.70*0.70*0.65*0.65*0.60*0.60*0.55*0.55 = 0.023 = 2.3% chance is once every 44 years

That seems about right. Even if Selby and O'Sullivan were both 80% to win it was 0.20*0.20 = 0.040 =4% chance that they both lose. Much much better chance than lightning striking you or winning the lottery.

Interesting post. My reply is probably redundant given that Selby is out by I love stats!

The thing is though that the number 1 and 2 meeting in the final has a higher probability of happening than any other combination of finalists (assuming they are favourites for each match).

Also I would argue that selby and ronnie are far bigger favourites to to win their respective matches than you pointed out.
I would probably say they are;
90% Favourites in the first round
80% in Second
70% QF
65% SF

That changes the odds to 0.9*0.9*0.8*0.8*0.7*0.7*0.65*0.65 = 0.107... which is a 10% chance of it happening. Seems a lot more reasonable. However without crunching the numbers, on first thought most of us would say that a 10% chance of a ROS v Selby final sounds way too low. Only when you go through the probabilities round by round do you get to 10%

[blahblah01]

What happened with the Snooker on the Green?

[jrc750]

Highfield is potting some cracking long reds

[blahblah01]

He’s got a different finish on the bottom half of his cue to stop his hairs being pulled out.

There is at least one more with something similar....

[ste bed]

I’m pretty sure that’s just the TV lights playing tricks on your eyes.

He’s got a different finish on the bottom half of his cue to stop his hairs being pulled out.