What do you think?

[Parrot]

Not normally a betting man but went to Ladbrokes yestarday to make a couple of pre tournement bet and was offered 40-1 for Peter Ebdon to make 4+ centuries in the match against Nigel Bond so I put a couple of quid on.
Good decision?

[Semih_Sayginer]

Not normally a betting man but went to Ladbrokes yestarday to make a couple of pre tournement bet and was offered 40-1 for Peter Ebdon to make 4+ centuries in the match against Nigel Bond so I put a couple of quid on.
Good decision?

i wouldnt have bet it, but it does seem high odds, so i hope youre succesful with it

[rambon]

Not normally a betting man but went to Ladbrokes yestarday to make a couple of pre tournement bet and was offered 40-1 for Peter Ebdon to make 4+ centuries in the match against Nigel Bond so I put a couple of quid on.
Good decision?

I would suggest that it is a very bad value bet, and The Statman could maybe back this up with statistics.

I'm not sure how many times, if ever, 4 centuries have been scored in a first round best of 19 match at the Crucible.

There have been 446 best of 19 1st Round matches since 1980 when the 1st round was reduced to that duration and for the 40/1 odds to be of any value whatsoever, you would need this occurrence to have happened 11 times.

If they'd offered odds of 200/1 I may have taken them up on it, but I hope you're laughing at their expense in a couple of weeks time.

[Robert602]

I'm not a betting man but 40/1 doesn't sound too bad to me. Ebdon's a crucible man, well capable of powering through the first few rounds in that sort of form. If he plays like he did in the early part of the worlds, or indeed the UK, last year then he's got a good shout.

Rambon's analysis is rather on the pessimistic side in my opinion, many times more centuries are made now than in 1980 and Ebdon's an above average breakbuilder.

Good luck with it anyway.

[missneworleans]

I think not bad decision...but who knows?
Bond is else not bad, and Ebdon is not at very good form, but he's always good at crucible.
Anyway, good luck!!

[rambon]

I'm not a betting man but 40/1 doesn't sound too bad to me. Ebdon's a crucible man, well capable of powering through the first few rounds in that sort of form. If he plays like he did in the early part of the worlds, or indeed the UK, last year then he's got a good shout.

Rambon's analysis is rather on the pessimistic side in my opinion, many times more centuries are made now than in 1980 and Ebdon's an above average breakbuilder.

Good luck with it anyway.

The record is 5 by Ronnie O'Sullivan against David Gray in 2000. I don't have any stats to hand about 4 centuries but really don't expect it to be that high a number.

Like I say good luck, but I'd be looking for longer odds to be honest.

[Parrot]

Well if i win i'll get 78 quid so maybe i'll get lucky, Ebdon has improved greatly over the past few years with the high breaks but Nigel Bond is a tough matchplayer so we may see a lot of low scoring frames.

[rambon]

Well if i win i'll get 78 quid so maybe i'll get lucky, Ebdon has improved greatly over the past few years with the high breaks but Nigel Bond is a tough matchplayer so we may see a lot of low scoring frames.

So what did you bet, £1.95?

That sounds like you scraped every last coin out of your pocket to put the bet on ;-)

[dannyd0g]

I wonder what the odds are on Ronnie and Ding making 4 centuries each in their first rounder.

To be honest i think this is much more likeley than Ebdon making 4, but I guess anything is possible, especially with Unpredictable guys like Ebdon.

[Blondie]

Hi Parrot/Guys...

.......and interesting post/posts, and I'm not a betting person either, although you never know, you may win the £78

Ebbo is not a stranger to the crucible, and when he's on form, anything is possible. And as Dan said earlier, Ebbo is unpredictable, which sometimes gives you the edge...

Good luck Parrot, and would also be interested to know what odds they would give out for Ron/Ding making 4 centuries in their first round..

......all the best...

[Stormwatch]

I think it's a good bet...
I don't see it happening, but these 2 pounds will turn this - probably booooring - match into something more interesting (for you at least...)
And you might even get those 78 pounds...who knows?

[The Statman]

The first time a player made even 3 centuries in one match was in 1989 when John Parrott made three (110, 103 and 102) against Steve James. Hendry and White then made 3 in the first round in 1991.

The first player to make 4 was Hendry against Ferguson in 1996 (118, 106 and two 104s).

O'Sullivan of course made 5 in 2000 (136, 123, 115, 102 and 100) although he lost the match, while the same year Higgins made 4 (141, 126, 109 and 103).

So, in short, it would be only the fourth time someone has made four centuries in the first round – good luck!

[Q Ball]

Anyone get the odds of the upset in Bond beating Ebdon???

Wasnt bond a finalist/semi finalist years ago? ,may not of been the WC, but thought it was

Q

[rambon]

While we're looking at betting, here are the latest odds:

Ronnie short-priced favourite, Dott looks good value at 12/1. Trump backed into 40/1

Ronnie O'Sullivan 7/2
John Higgins 10/1
Shaun Murphy 10/1
Ding Junhui 10/1
Peter Ebdon 10/1
Stephen Hendry 10/1
Graeme Dott 12/1
Robertson, Neil 16/1
Stephen Maguire 20/1
Ken Doherty 22/1
Matthew Stevens 22/1
Mark Williams 25/1
Selby, Mark 25/1
Ryan Day 28/1
Hawkins, Barry 40/1
Judd Trump 40/1
Ali Carter 50/1
Mark Allen 50/1
Marco Fu 50/1
Stephen Lee 66/1
Anthony Hamilton 80/1
Steve Davis 80/1
Joe Perry 80/1
Andy Hicks 100/1
Joe Swail 100/1
Ian McCulloch 100/1
Michael Holt 150/1
Nigel Bond 150/1
David Gilbert 150/1
Fergal O'Brien 150/1
John Parrott 350/1
Delaney, Joe 350/1

[Q Ball]

If the bookies have got Ding at 10-1, they must fear an upset at the first hurdle for Ronnie, or they would of stuck him at 40-1+

I think Stephen Hendry is a fantastic bet at 10-1, I know where my 50p is going..lol

Q