According to us...

[The Statman]

The prediction contest for the World first round has received 48 entries so far, and these are the predictions for each match: (in order or seed's expectation)

48-0 HendryGilbert
46-2 Stevens-Delaney
45-3 Doherty-Allen
45-3 Dott-McCulloch
44-4 Ebdon-Bond
43-5 Davis-Parrott
42-6 Higgins-Holt
41-7 Carter-Hicks
41-7 Hawkins-O'Brien
41-7 Robertson-Day
40-8 O'Sullivan-Ding
38-10 Maguire-Perry
36-12 Murphy-Trump
29-19 Williams-Swail
12-36 Lee-Selby
10-38 Hamilton-Fu

[austrian_girl]

I am quite surprised that so many people think that Selby will beat Lee. Having said that, I predicted so myself but my reasoning was that I couldn't predict all the seeds to win their matches (which I first did), so I changed two matches (the Maguire-Perry one and the Lee-Selby one) to say that the qualifier would win it. However, I am very much surprised that such a considerable majority of people predicted Selby to win.

By the way, if you have ever wondered why I suck at the prediction game then my above reasoning might give a you an important clue.

[dannyd0g]

Thanks Statman.

Wonder what the bookmakers would think of those stats, in terms of odds on the matches. Probably a bit too strong in favour of the favourites, as most of us have gone for the favourites to win, with very few willing to risk predicting an unpredictable upset.

[dannyd0g]

I am quite surprised that so many people think that Selby will beat Lee. Having said that, I predicted so myself but my reasoning was that I couldn't predict all the seeds to win their matches (which I first did), so I changed two matches (the Maguire-Perry one and the Lee-Selby one) to say that the qualifier would win it. However, I am very much surprised that such a considerable majority of people predicted Selby to win.

You might be right, and maybe the bookies would make Lee favourite. It would be interesting to see. But I guess most people here have taken current form into account rather than ranking. And the bookies like you, would go on past performance more ?

[chasmmi]

These figures throw up surpring results quite often.

I remember last year only 3 people thought Fu would beat Mcmanus and so the stats appeared that a Mcmanus win was the biggest certainty in our collective minds.

Looking closer would actually show that most had predicted a 10-8 or 10-9 victory, it just so happened they all favoured Alan.

I would imagine if The Statman produced a list of average frame win prediction or similar then some of these results will look different for there a number of games here which should be close but these stats dont suggest it. O Sullivan and Roberston spring to mind quickly from that list.

[missneworleans]

Good odds on Hendry though!!
Is Gilbert that bad??

[dannyd0g]

Good odds on Hendry though!!
Is Gilbert that bad??

Lol. I bet he isnt that bad. I guess a lot of people just havent heard of him before and never seen him play before (I know i havent). But just because of that 48-0 is way too high in favour of Hendry. I think more realitsically Gilbert possibly has a 25% chance of catching Hendry on one of his all too common bad days, and causing a massive upset by beating him.

[Parrot]

I think 2 games that could either way are Ronnie v Ding and Davis v Parrot, which, in theory, could be won by any player, even though most have gone for the seeds.

[Cyril]

Davis v Parrott will be a match out on it's own. I don't think current form will have too much bearing on it. They both know the Crucible and, each other so well. I predict a close contest here, perhaps 10-9.

Question. Who has the most successful "deciding frame" record at the Crucible, ever? [,TS]

[missneworleans]

Lol. I bet he isnt that bad. I guess a lot of people just havent heard of him before and never seen him play before (I know i havent). But just because of that 48-0 is way too high in favour of Hendry. I think more realitsically Gilbert possibly has a 25% chance of catching Hendry on one of his all too common bad days, and causing a massive upset by beating him.

And if Gilbert could play other players will the odds be the same?
Does Hendry has worse opponent than others?
I'm just shocked he's the only one with 48-0, so people believe he can win this year, but in my topic, most of people believe he won't win anything at all!

[Skypigeon]

As always, you come out on top Statman! I haven't predicted yet but this surely is food for thought...

[austrian_girl]

I'm just shocked he's the only one with 48-0, so people believe he can win this year, but in my topic, most of people believe he won't win anything at all!

Well, you asked if we believed he could become world champion. I guess there is a difference between winning the world title and beating Gilbert in the first round. Probably most people think that Hendry will go out in the quarters, maybe semis?

[Blondie]

Hi,

..........interesting posts, and I hope Hendo doesn't go out in the quarters, or semi-finals. He deserves to be in the final, here's hoping.....

[missneworleans]

Well, you asked if we believed he could become world champion. I guess there is a difference between winning the world title and beating Gilbert in the first round. Probably most people think that Hendry will go out in the quarters, maybe semis?

But if he's the only one with 48-0 in first round, that means nothing in next rounds?

[austrian_girl]

But if he's the only one with 48-0 in first round, that means nothing in next rounds?

Well... no, not really!