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  • China Open - 1st round (and wildcard round) discussion

    Once again, there is no general thread for the China Open, so I hope you will forgive me for posting this preview in the 1st round thread...

    I know everyone is already looking forward to the World Championship, but I wonder if anyone else is excited about this event as well? It's always been one of my favourite events, and even more so this season, as it's one of only two remaining one-week best-of-9 events. I will be up in the mornings to watch every second of it, including the wildcard round, which once again features a couple of familiar names. I always look forward to seeing the likes of Tian Pengfei and Yu Delu in particular.

    Now, let's see what the draw looks like this year...

    Quarter 1:

    Mark Williams v. Stephen Lee
    Ronnie O'Sullivan v. Ryan Day
    Stephen Hendry v. Matthew Stevens
    Ding Junhui v. Kurt Maflin/Cao Yupeng

    The first quarter is an incredibly strong one, quite possibly the most interesting quarter in any tournament this season. The seeds are four of the biggest names in the game, with three in-form qualifiers thrown in the mix as well. Being the defending champion, Mark Williams would probably have hoped for an easier draw, but with the kind of snooker he has been playing lately, he shouldn't be too worried. His record outside of the UK is excellent, in fact, he currently holds two non-UK titles. He is also the most successful player in the history of the China Open, as well as the only player to win this title two times since it became a regular event in 2005. Stephen Lee could prove a tricky 1st round opponent though, playing some good snooker this season. He played quite well in the PTC finals last week, and only lost to a very good Murphy. He is a bit unlucky with his draws though, facing Williams and Higgins in the last two tournaments of the season. He will probably need to play out of his skin to get anything out of them.

    Then there is Ronnie O'Sullivan, assuming he shows up of course... It's tough to say what his chances are. He hasn't won a major match since the World Open in September, and even more remarkably, he hasn't won a best-of-9 for over a year! He doesn't come to this tournament as one of the top players, at least not terms of the rankings, but I am sure he is still capable of playing some world-class snooker. The Chinese tournaments have not been his favourites in recent years, he's had a number of non-appearances and unremarkable early exits. But on the other hand, he did win his most recent ranking title in Shanghai in 2009, so he can turn it on from time to time. Also, he is in desperate need of some ranking points, considering the World Open is the only ranking tournament where he has won a match this season. He faces a very tricky opponent in Ryan Day, a player who beat him recently in Wales. Contrary to O'Sullivan, Day is somewhat of a specialist for the Chinese events. He has reached a final, two semi-finals, and another two quarter-finals in China in the last four years or so. I would give him a good chance of taking out O'Sullivan again. That would set up an interesting clash with Williams, as the two players will also meet in the 1st round in Sheffield.

    But then again, it could well be O'Sullivan in the 2nd round, as he has a point to prove here. It would be very interesting to see him play Williams. Williams hasn't won a major match against O'Sullivan for many years now, not even in Shanghai in 2008, where you could say he had the "home advantage". But the roles would be reversed this time. Williams is the top3 player now and one of the big favourites, whereas O'Sullivan has slipped down the rankings and comes to the tournament as a bit of a mystery. With the attitude Williams has shown recently, trying to get as much as possible out of every tournament, I think he should be favourite to come through here.

    There are three main contenders for the other QF spot. The match between Hendry and Stevens should be one of the most interesting ones in the 1st round. Stevens is certainly the in-form player at the moment, having just won the Championship League. He hasn't really threatened to win a major tournament this season, but he is certainly getting past the last32 stage and deeper into tournaments quite regularly. On the other hand, Hendry isn't having the best of seasons. His performances have improved in recent months though, so I wouldn't put it past him to play some good snooker here. This tournament isn't everyone's cup of tea, considering its location and place on the calendar, but Hendry did reach the QF in the last two editions, which is not bad compared to a couple of other top16 players. Another thing to consider would be their head-to-head record. They haven't played each other a lot recently, but Stevens definitely seems to like playing Hendry. I think this one is difficult to call.

    Looking past the 1st round, the winner should meet Ding Junhui in the 2nd. After winning the Masters in January, Ding reached two ranking quarter-finals, without really playing exceptional snooker. I think he could reach his top form again just in time for the WC, which means he shouldn't be too far away in this tournament. He's had a couple of very convincing wins over Stevens recently, so I would make him a big favourite if they should meet. On the other hand, Hendry may not be his favourite opponent. Ding lost their two WC encounters, so I would say he is the only top player who doesn't hold any sort of psychological edge over Hendry. But I still think he should come through this part of the draw, considering this is his home tournament. There are quite a few combinations in this quarter, but I think Ding to meet Williams for another round of their rivalry seems like the safest bet.

    Quarter 2:

    Allister Carter v. Stuart Bingham
    Mark Allen v. Marcus Campbell/Mei Xiwen
    Jamie Cope v. Robert Milkins/Rouzi Maimaiti
    Mark Selby v. Jimmy White/Tian Pengfei

    Compared to the monstrous first quarter, the second one seems quite underwhelming. But it should still be interesting to see how it plays out. Carter against Bingham is one of the more interesting 1st round matches for me. Bingham has had quite a good season, the highlight being his performance in the UK Championship where he reached the QF. He is probably one of the qualifiers the seeds were hoping to avoid here. Still, Carter's season hasn't been too bad either. He won the first ranking event of the season, the Shanghai Masters, so I'm sure he is glad to be back in China. He had some poor results in the middle part of the season, but came back strongly in Wales. Looking past Bingham, Mark Allen should be his biggest obstacle in this part of the draw. Allen's season so far has been quite different to Carter's. He did well in the two majors, but played quite poorly in every other event. It will be interesting to see how well he plays in the remaining two events. At this point in time however, I think I would choose Carter over him.

    The next really exciting prospect is the wildcard round match between Jimmy White and Tian Pengfei. I always look forward to seeing Tian in these events. He has a few good scalps to his name, and perhaps he is favourite to take another one here. He played very well to win the BTV Cup in the summer, against some good opposition. He also has a good record in wildcard matches, as well as a couple of good 1st round proper wins over Marco Fu and Ronnie O'Sullivan. I thought he would be dangerous in Shanghai earlier in the season, but he came up against a very good Jamie Burnett. Whether he wins against White or not, it's tough to see him making much progress here, as Mark Selby awaits in the 1st round. Not that Selby is unbeatable of course, but he has been in good form recently, and is one of the more consistent players in reaching the business end of tournaments.

    Other than Tian and Selby, Cope could be a good bet here. He seems like the kind of character who doesn't do well in unfamiliar situations, but his results on the table go against that. He was the runner-up in this event in 2007, a semi-finalist in Shanghai this season, and more recently the runner-up in the Hainan Classic, so he is well capable of getting a good result in China. He has now established himself as a top16 player, despite not getting any spectacular results. He doesn't seem to get too difficult draws, and here is another one that could suit him. Having said that, Milkins could prove tricky, as he seems to be more present in tournaments than a year or two ago. And it usually takes a very good performance to knock Selby out as well.

    Quarter 3:

    John Higgins v. Nigel Bond/Jin Long
    Ricky Walden v. Martin Gould
    Graeme Dott v. Ken Doherty/Li Hang
    Shaun Murphy v. Joe Perry/Li Yan

    The third quarter looks a stronger one, with a couple of potential champions. John Higgins is still undefeated in ranking events this season, so he has to be among the immediate title contenders here. His consistency is not in question. Since his return in November, he has already won four titles, including two major ones. He also won the Hainan Classic a couple of weeks ago, so he can perform in any type of event. After all that he's had to face this year, his success has been remarkable, so you can't question his mental state either. It will be interesting to see if he can hold his form through the last two tournaments as well. He can be vulnerable sometimes, as the Masters showed us. There are two players who could cause him problems here. Ricky Walden was supposed to play him in the 2nd round of the Welsh Open, but he lost in the 1st round on that occasion. I will repeat what I said ahead of that tournament... I remember Walden causing problems for Higgins way back in 2004, when he knocked him out of the Grand Prix as well as the UK Championship. He also pushed him very close in the 2009 UK Championship, so he won't be particularly afraid of Higgins. He also likes playing in China. He's had a couple of good runs in recent years, including his win in the 2008 Shanghai Masters of course. The other problem for Higgins could potentially be Martin Gould. He has established himself as one of the most dangerous qualifiers. He was runner-up in the PTC finals last week, which is arguably the best result of his career so far. It's questionable whether he has the game to win a big tournament at this point in time, but he could certainly get through this part of the draw. The match between Walden and Gould should also be one of the most interesting in the 1st round. But realistically, Higgins is the man to beat in this quarter.

    The fight for the other QF spot could also be very interesting. The two qualifiers, Doherty and Perry, are two very experienced players well capable of having a good run. But considering their recent form, they could also struggle in the wildcard round. It's the potential clash between Murphy and Dott that interests me the most though, as it could be a really high-quality match. Dott is certainly back to his best this season. I kind of expect his form to drop after every good tournament, but he just keeps going. It will be interesting to see his performance in the last two tournaments. He won this event in 2007, and has a couple good runs to his name in places like China or Malta. Murphy himself won two titles in Malta, and he currently holds the Wuxi Classic title. He wasn't brilliant in the first part of the season, but he made it right last week by winning the PTC finals. I suppose he now carries the curse of being the winner of the previous event, so it could be an early exit here. He was also the only seed other than O'Sullivan to lose in the 1st round of this event last year. But I think he has the class to avoid something like that this time. Murphy and Dott are not a particularly common pairing, so I would definitely like to see it happen. I think it could go either way, but I would make Murphy a slight favourite.

    Quarter 4:

    Stephen Maguire v. Mark Davis
    Marco Fu v. Judd Trump
    Peter Ebdon v. Gerard Greene/Yu Delu
    Neil Robertson v. Barry Hawkins

    And the final quarter is perhaps a slightly weaker one again, but still very intriguing. The first part is very similar to the Shanghai Masters draw, where Maguire played Trump and Fu played Davis in the 1st round. Maguire and Davis met in the 2nd round on that occasion, with Davis getting a surprising victory. He might fancy his chances again here. Having said that, Maguire's form has definitely been improving over the course of the season. He showed glimpses of his best in the UK Championship, and reached his first final in some time in Wales. I thought he would be a danger at the PTC finals, but he had to pull out. I still think he has a decent chance of winning one of the remaining two events this season though. Perhaps this could be it, as it's the place of his last ranking title in 2008 after all.

    The other two players could also be dangerous. Trump's results don't suggest he will be winning anything in the near future, but I wouldn't rule out a good run here. He is yet to win a 1st round proper match in China though. He even got caught out in the wildcard round in the past, when he was unprepared for what was awaiting him. Rather surprisingly, Fu doesn't have the best of records in China either. I've often thought he had a good chance in the past, but he ended up disappointing me. He had a long run of poor results before the Masters in January, but his performance in that tournament was very respectable. I don't think it will be too long this time before he produces something similar again. Of these two players, I think Fu is more likely to get past Maguire. He thrashed him in the 2006 WC, 13-4, and he played well to beat him in the Masters this season. On the other hand, Trump already lost to Maguire twice this season, including the Shanghai Masters in September.

    And finally, as usual, the part of the draw with Neil Robertson. He hasn't really played his best for a while now, which is not necessarily a bad sign for him. He has always been the kind of player who follows a good tournament with a couple of bad ones, so his form might turn around just in time for the WC. Personally, I think he will be one of the immediate favourites at the WC. As for this tournament... not so much. Of all the top players, I think he probably has the worst record in the Chinese events. In fact, he has never been past the 2nd round. He often comes to events unprepared, which is a potential disaster in China, and he is somewhat famous for getting up late in the mornings, so he might find it even tougher than other players to adjust.

    So, if not Robertson, who could go through? Perhaps Barry Hawkins, a former semi-finalist and a player who has played some decent snooker this season, particularly in the World Open. Maybe Yu Delu? A player with a 50% record in wildcard matches, and a decent performance in the Hainan Classic behind him. I am very much looking forward to seeing him again, after his unfortunate absence in the Shanghai Masters earlier in the season. He has caused problems for many players in the past, so I don't think it's completely out of the question for him to go through here. But the obvious answer is Peter Ebdon. He was the winner of this title in 2009, his last ranking title to date. He also won't mind seeing his name next to Robertson's in the draw, as he beat Robertson in the last two ranking events in China. Ebdon is not a very consistent player these days, so he might not make any impression on this tournament, but if he is up for it, I think he has a good chance of going through.

    Possible QF lineup:

    Mark Williams v. Ding Junhui
    Allister Carter v. Mark Selby
    John Higgins v. Shaun Murphy
    Stephen Maguire v. Peter Ebdon


    So there... I know everyone will be interested to see how this tournament plays out, as the World Championship is just around the corner, and this event could be a good form indicator. But I think it's a great tournament in its own right, and I have a feeling it could be one of the best this season. I wish everyone a great snooker week, and if anyone has any opinions, I would love to hear them.

  • #2
    It's always interesting to read these previews.

    I think there are a lot of very tough to call matches even in the first round, so I really don't feel up to predicting quarter-finals.
    I think this has the potential to be a very high quality tournament, hopefully there will be livestreaming available so I can watch most sessions.

    Comment


    • #3
      Is anybody organising a Lucky Dip and Fantasy Game for this tournament?
      2009 Shanghai Masters Lucky Dip Champion
      2010/11 Overall Prediction Champion

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally Posted by pat39 View Post
        Is anybody organising a Lucky Dip and Fantasy Game for this tournament?
        Fantasy game thread will be opened up in the midnight
        All the way Mark J!!

        I understand nothing from snooker. - Dedicated to jrc750!

        Winner of the German Masters 2011 Lucky Dip

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally Posted by montoya10 View Post
          Fantasy game thread will be opened up in the midnight
          Nice one
          2009 Shanghai Masters Lucky Dip Champion
          2010/11 Overall Prediction Champion

          Comment


          • #6
            Jimmy white is out of the tournament due to visa problems, according to World Snooker site.
            "There has only ever been Alex Higgins, myself and now Ronnie O'sullivan who play the game the way it should be played with such excitement - I know the fans love it this way" - Jimmy White

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally Posted by attilahun View Post
              Jimmy white is out of the tournament due to visa problems, according to World Snooker site.
              What do players have managers for ?? if they don't manage them ??
              If its because of a late submission then there is no excuse at all....this is their job after-all......

              Comment


              • #8
                Hi Chaps and Chapesses...Is there any TV link available to watch this on-line in the UK please????

                Comment


                • #9
                  Good morning everyone.

                  Excellent start from Stephen Hendry, a break of 100. A masterclass of positional play, he always got perfectly on the blue.

                  Another good break, a 93, to lead 3-0. Stevens just can't seem to get going at the moment.

                  More good stuff from Hendry, a 75 to lead 4-0.
                  Last edited by Odrl; 28 March 2011, 07:33 AM.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    any live working links for Kurt V Cao match please
                    Ronnie O' Sullivan seven times the record breaking Snooker Master

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Hendry is playing his best snooker of the season, knocking in breaks of 100, 93 and 76 but Matthew looks unwell and has left him in amongst the balls virtually every frame.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Anyone got a working stream??

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally Posted by Wiwe View Post
                          Anyone got a working stream??
                          Good question Wiwe,
                          there you go http://www.justin.tv/freddy49vipsnooker#/w/1015693504

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            http://www.everythingon.tv/channel/view/eurosport-4
                            Ronnie O' Sullivan seven times the record breaking Snooker Master

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              A surprising development then, in what looked like the most exciting prospect of the 1st round. Hendry completes the whitewash, while the other three matches are still to reach the mid-session interval. Quite remarkably, Stevens only scored 8 points in the entire match.

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