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So this is the part of the year where you have to wake up at 7 am. 
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Anyone else excited about the China Open? It's unfortunate that this event takes place just before the WC, but the play itself rarely disappoints here. There is always a good combination of some of the top players, and some of the lower ranked players that cope well with the atmosphere coming through. And of course, for us Europeans it's early morning sessions that make this event special. I wonder if the Eurosport commentators will once again discover that "the tables are a bit on the slow side this week". It always happens in the Chinese events.
Here's my preview of who might get through to the business end of the tournament:
Quarter 1:
Maguire v. Harold
Ebdon v. Tang/Trump
Perry v. Cao K./Walden
Hendry v. Swail/Liang/Milkins
Tough luck for Ebdon. He's under pressure with his top16 place under threat, he does not have a great overseas record, and he didn't get the easiest of opponents in Trump. I expect Trump to play Maguire in the 2nd round, with Maguire being the favourite to get through.
Ricky Walden returns to China as the Shanghai Masters champion, which makes him a good bet against Perry, he seems to like the Chinese atmosphere. Liang Wenbo has to play two matches to get to Hendry. This could be tough, he has an evening session against Milkins, followed by a possible morning session against Swail. I think that was the case in Shanghai as well, where he beat Mahitthi and Allen, but then lost 5-0 to Day in the 1st round proper. If he does get through to play Hendry, I think he could take him. Realistically, Walden is favourite here, but if I apply a bit of wishful thinking, I think Liang can get through.
Quarter 2:
Carter v. Bond
Allen v. Cao Y./Pettman
Dott v. Yu/Lawler
Selby v. Lee
Carter has made it clear in Bahrain, that this is not the sort of event he wants to peak for, and with him being the winner of the previous event, I can't see him having a run here. That leaves Allen for the QF.
The other two pairs are a bit more interesting. First we have Yu Delu against Rod Lawler. Yu has won his wild card match in the past, on more than one occasion, but I think he's lost the last two. Lawler has himself said, that he likes to play in China. I'd like to see a bit of that match. The favourites here however, are Dott and Selby. With Selby targeting the WC, and Dott desperately needing a run in any event, I like Dott's chances here. His overseas record is also very good. He was the winner of this event in 2007, and also his last SF appearance was in the Shanghai Masters of 2007.
Quarter 3:
Murphy v. Cao X.
Robertson v. Greene
King v. Williams
Day v. Cope
Not too tough for Murphy and Robertson. It's a shame John Parrott has had to withdraw, I would love to see him play Murphy. Murphy and Robertson don't play against each other very often, in fact, I'm struggling to remember a single encounter. Tough one to call, let's go with Murphy.
Of the other four, I consider Mark Williams the favourite, despite being the lowest ranked player. He has won an impressive five ranking events in Asia, including his last ranking event win in this very event in 2006. Cope was himself a finalist in 2007, so I wouldn't be surprised to see him having a good run.
Quarter 4:
Higgins v. Hamilton
Fu v. Tian/Gray
Ding v. Xiao/Holt
O'Sullivan v. O'Brien
In every event there is a quarter of the draw that's full of potential winners. I think this is the one here. First off, there's a very interesting wild card match between Tian Pengfei and David Gray. We know Tian is pretty good, and Gray has to win this to stay on the tour. He would then have to win against Fu as well, which is unlikely. In fact, I consider Fu to be favourite to come through here. He is likely to be the most motivated and his record against Higgins is solid as well.
Ding didn't play well in the last couple of events in China. Not a particularly easy match against either Xian or Holt, but he should make it to the 2nd round. O'Sullivan played proper snooker in Shanghai, but he is always likely to play some questionable stuff in China. O'Brien is not a player that suits him, but he does have a score to settle with him. If Ding and O'Sullivan do meet, which I would love to see, it's a perfect chance for Ding to get that monkey off his back. He would have a lot of support from the crowd, without really being expected to win. Either way, with Fu-Ding or Higgins-O'Sullivan in the QF, the fans won't be disappointed.
Possible QF lineup (with a bit of wishful thinking thrown in):
Stephen Maguire v. Liang Wenbo
Mark Allen v. Graeme Dott
Shaun Murphy v. Mark Williams
Marco Fu v. Ding Junhui
Isn't it great that there's a very realistic possibility of the three Chinese stars playing Hendry, Higgins and O'Sullivan in the first couple of days? If I was Chinese, I'd be excited.
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