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Right, the tournament is about to begin, and not much discussion yet. I have to say I'm looking forward to it very much, as there haven't been too many of these traditional ranking events this season, and you may know that these events is what I love the most. 
On a negative note, it's basically only four days of snooker, so it's not really a proper "snooker week" unfortunately. I know they are trying push as much of the action as possible towards the weekend, but it just seems a bit underwhelming to me. Still, it should be great fun.
I would like to have a look through the draw, and as there is no general topic about this tournament, I hope you will forgive me for posting my thoughts here...
Quarter 1:
Neil Robertson v. A.Hamilton/P.Leyk
Graeme Dott v. T.Thirapongpaiboon/T.Skalski
Ricky Walden v. J.Lisowski/L.Brecel
Stephen Maguire v. Liu S./D.Wells
A very intriguing first quarter, full of players we don't often see on TV, and a couple of seeds who are usually hard to predict. Neil Robertson was one of the favourites in the two major tournaments of the last two months, but he failed to get past the QF stage both times. However, he did play "respectable" snooker, so it took a good player to take him out. It's tough to say how strong he is likely to be here. He does have an "overseas" trophy to his name, winning the Bahrain Championship in 2008, but other than that, his performances have been unremarkable, particularly in China. He will most likely face a tricky 1st round opponent in Hamilton, a player who has already performed well in Germany this season in the PTC series. Then there is Graeme Dott, back to being a player nobody really wants to meet. He's been playing well for some time now, consistently beating lower ranked players, and at least giving a good game to anyone in the later rounds. The last couple of meetings between Robertson and Dott went Robertson's way, but considering how many of Dott's appearances at the business end of tournaments have come in places like China or Malta, I'd be tempted to go for Dott here. Also worth a mention is Thanawat Thirapongpaiboon, who became the youngest player to make a maximum on the Main Tour earlier in the season, in Germany of all places.
The part of the draw with Ricky Walden is one I'm particularly looking forward to, so I really hope it makes it on TV. There is a lot of hype surrounding Luca Brecel, and after seeing some footage here and there, it would be great to see him in a full match. He has managed to hold his own against some very good players in the past, but with this being a major ranking event, everyone will really be playing to win. I'd love to see Lisowski as well, another player whose reputation precedes him in a way. Whoever wins will have a tough match against Walden though. I consider Walden as somewhat of a specialist for the Asian events, so this could be an environment that suits him as well. It's the first time he finds himself as a seeded player, which is a situation some players can struggle with, but I can see Walden dealing with it just fine. As far as ranking is concerned, Stephen Maguire is the favourite to get through here. He played some solid snooker at the UK Championship, but followed it with a mediocre performance at the Masters. Consistency hasn't really been one of his best attributes in recent times, so it's tough to say with him. Liu and Wells could both potentially knock him out, but then again, he could ease through the first couple of rounds. If there is any weakness though, I think it could be Walden that goes through.
Quarter 2:
Mark Selby v. N.Bond/S.Kasper
Stephen Hendry v. Judd Trump
Peter Ebdon v. Andrew Higginson
Ding Junhui v. Matthew Stevens
Some interesting clashes in the second quarter. Mark Selby, the first big name here, had a disappointing couple of months, going out early in the UK Championship and the Masters. I'm sure he will be one of the most motivated top players here, and I can't really see him having another bad tournament. Whatever this setup and the atmosphere throws at players, Selby is the kind of character who will find a way to enjoy it, rather than being bothered by it. It will also be interesting to see how Nigel Bond plays, having just won the shoot-out event. I don't think it's really much of a form indicator, and even if it was, winning a title just before a tournament seems to work against players these days anyway. The Hendry-Trump clash is perhaps the most exciting prospect of the round. Trump hasn't done much in the main ranking events yet, and whenever it looked like he was ready for a good run in the past, he wasn't able to deliver. Maybe this could be the place. He has already won a PTC event in Germany this season. Hendry looks like a good seed to be up against at the moment, but as I have been saying all season, he seems to raise his game after new year. He was very poor in the UK Championship, but looked much better in the Masters, losing to a very good Robertson. I fancy him to be up for this match. But he'll certainly be up against it if he meets Selby in the 2nd round, judging by how their recent meetings went.
The other two matches in this quarter are quite familiar prospects, from as recently as the 1st round of the UK Championship. Peter Ebdon lost to Higginson that time, and only won in the decider in 2008. Judging by that, Higginson is quite capable of match Ebdon, and with it being a one-session match this time, he will fancy his chances even more. Ebdon is one of the more unpredictable players, so you never really know when he might play a good tournament. He hasn't shown his best yet this season, not even in reaching the SF of the World Open, so I would expect him to shine in one of the remaining tournaments. Ding and Stevens seem to play each other a lot, and it's usually a close match. Having said that, Ding was very convincing at the UK, never really giving Stevens a chance. He played by far the best snooker in the Masters, so he has the form, but on the other hand, it's tough to play good snooker in back-to-back events, and the winner of the previous event usually underperforms. Stevens has the class to take him out, as does Ebdon, but with Ding having a good record against those two, I would still put him as favourite to reach the QF.
Quarter 3:
Mark Williams v. A.McGill/M.Wehrmann
Ronnie O'Sullivan v. Dominic Dale
Jamie Cope v. Joe Perry
Allister Carter v. Stephen Lee
Right, with O'Sullivan withdrawing, it looks like I've wasted a bunch of time on writing about his chances, and his potential clash with Williams. No matter, let's re-asses... That leaves Dominic Dale already in the 2nd round. He could have a good tournament here, having lived in a German-speaking country for a while, and being the kind of character who enjoys these non-routine surroundings. However, O'Sullivan's withdrawal now makes Williams a big favourite in this part of the draw. He hasn't been in the best form recently, basically scrapping his way to the UK Final, and losing in the 1st round of the Masters. But looking at it from another perspective, he lost to the eventual champion in each of the last three main events. So whatever form he is in, it still takes a good player to beat him. He is another great specialist for the Chinese events, so I would expect him to adapt well to this event as well. Even with O'Sullivan as part of the equation, Williams would still have been the highest seed in this part of the draw, but with O'Sullivan now out, the door for Williams is wide open. Having said that, Anthony McGill is another player I would love to see this week. He seems to be a great scorer, judging by the statistics at least, so I wonder what kind of a game he could give Williams.
I was about to say that the remainder of this quarter would be less "anticipated", but not now. Cope and Perry have drawn each other a couple of times recently, and Carter always seems to be somewhere near them in the draw as well. Cope beat Perry in the 1st round of the 2009 WC, and followed that with another win in the Shanghai Masters at the start of the following season. I'm not sure if they've played each other since. Cope will be the seed this time, in fact, it's a very different situation altogether. Perry has not really been appearing on TV much recently, while Cope has been having some decent results as a top16 player, even if he is not quite good enough to really challenge for titles at the moment. It should be an interesting match, with Cope obviously being the favourite. Carter against Lee is another good prospect, a match that wouldn't be out of place in a later round than this. Lee has played quite well this season, giving John Higgins a great match at the UK, and looking in much better form than the one that saw him drop out of the top16. On the other hand, Carter surprisingly lost in the 1st round of both of the big events recently, even though he was a top8 seed. I would be surprised if he made it three in a row here. He now has two ranking titles to his name, both in events of a similar format, so he has to be the favourite to get through this part of the draw.
Quarter 4:
Shaun Murphy v. Ryan Day
Mark Allen v. J.Swail/H.Blanckaert
Mark King v. Marco Fu
John Higgins v. R.Milkins/L.Münstermann
And finally, a quite intriguing fourth quarter, full of interesting names. Murphy-Day is another repeat of a UK Championship clash. I think it could be a close match. Class is obviously on Murphy's side, as is ranking and the fact that he won that 2nd round match between them at the UK. From Day's perspective, it was largely these best-of-9 main ranking events that saw him get into the top8 in the last two years. The overseas events in particular have been his favourites, he reached finals in Malta as well as China, so there is no reason he can't do it in Germany. Then there is Mark Allen, another player who has to be strongly considered. He is the only player to reach the SF of both the UK and the Masters, so he is obviously one of the in-form players. But he is not really a player who reaches semi-finals with his B-game, so it's a big question how long he can hold his form. If he should play Day, I would expect him to win. Their games both rely on potting and scoring, but Allen has the advantage in temperament. But against Murphy... it would certainly be interesting. It's not a pairing we are used to, as they always seem to avoid each other, even though they were in the same quarter a couple of times recently. At this point in time, I would say Murphy would be favourite.
That only leaves the part with John Higgins. On first glance, it looks like a decent draw for him. Milkins played quite well in the shoot-out, but that was an event that suited him perfectly, whereas this is a different ball game. King and Fu could be trickier prospects, and the match between them is one of the more interesting in this round, in my opinion. They both played well in the Masters. King could only hold it for one match, playing probably his best snooker of the last couple of years against Selby, then falling apart against Cope. On the other hand, Fu had a better run. He scored really well to open up a lead against Maguire, punished Ebdon's mistakes and whitewashed him, before he was finally tested against Allen. He made a great comeback in that match, compiling all kinds of big breaks, a part of his game that makes him a really dangerous player. It's nice to see his return to form, it's just a question if he can find any consistency. Following a good tournament with a bad one has always been a trademark of his, and even though he is the favourite for this match, he is actually a qualifier this week. Still, his record against Higgins is very good, and he often raises his game against the top players. I would still go with Higgins though. After winning the UK, he played his "bad tournament" at the Masters, so I would expect normal service to be resumed.
Possible QF lineup:
Graeme Dott v. Ricky Walden
Mark Selby v. Ding Junhui
Mark Williams v. Allister Carter
Shaun Murphy v. John Higgins
So there you go... Hopefully it will be a good tournament, and I hope everyone enjoys it as much as I will.
Discuss...
On a negative note, it's basically only four days of snooker, so it's not really a proper "snooker week" unfortunately. I know they are trying push as much of the action as possible towards the weekend, but it just seems a bit underwhelming to me. Still, it should be great fun.
I would like to have a look through the draw, and as there is no general topic about this tournament, I hope you will forgive me for posting my thoughts here...
Quarter 1:
Neil Robertson v. A.Hamilton/P.Leyk
Graeme Dott v. T.Thirapongpaiboon/T.Skalski
Ricky Walden v. J.Lisowski/L.Brecel
Stephen Maguire v. Liu S./D.Wells
A very intriguing first quarter, full of players we don't often see on TV, and a couple of seeds who are usually hard to predict. Neil Robertson was one of the favourites in the two major tournaments of the last two months, but he failed to get past the QF stage both times. However, he did play "respectable" snooker, so it took a good player to take him out. It's tough to say how strong he is likely to be here. He does have an "overseas" trophy to his name, winning the Bahrain Championship in 2008, but other than that, his performances have been unremarkable, particularly in China. He will most likely face a tricky 1st round opponent in Hamilton, a player who has already performed well in Germany this season in the PTC series. Then there is Graeme Dott, back to being a player nobody really wants to meet. He's been playing well for some time now, consistently beating lower ranked players, and at least giving a good game to anyone in the later rounds. The last couple of meetings between Robertson and Dott went Robertson's way, but considering how many of Dott's appearances at the business end of tournaments have come in places like China or Malta, I'd be tempted to go for Dott here. Also worth a mention is Thanawat Thirapongpaiboon, who became the youngest player to make a maximum on the Main Tour earlier in the season, in Germany of all places.
The part of the draw with Ricky Walden is one I'm particularly looking forward to, so I really hope it makes it on TV. There is a lot of hype surrounding Luca Brecel, and after seeing some footage here and there, it would be great to see him in a full match. He has managed to hold his own against some very good players in the past, but with this being a major ranking event, everyone will really be playing to win. I'd love to see Lisowski as well, another player whose reputation precedes him in a way. Whoever wins will have a tough match against Walden though. I consider Walden as somewhat of a specialist for the Asian events, so this could be an environment that suits him as well. It's the first time he finds himself as a seeded player, which is a situation some players can struggle with, but I can see Walden dealing with it just fine. As far as ranking is concerned, Stephen Maguire is the favourite to get through here. He played some solid snooker at the UK Championship, but followed it with a mediocre performance at the Masters. Consistency hasn't really been one of his best attributes in recent times, so it's tough to say with him. Liu and Wells could both potentially knock him out, but then again, he could ease through the first couple of rounds. If there is any weakness though, I think it could be Walden that goes through.
Quarter 2:
Mark Selby v. N.Bond/S.Kasper
Stephen Hendry v. Judd Trump
Peter Ebdon v. Andrew Higginson
Ding Junhui v. Matthew Stevens
Some interesting clashes in the second quarter. Mark Selby, the first big name here, had a disappointing couple of months, going out early in the UK Championship and the Masters. I'm sure he will be one of the most motivated top players here, and I can't really see him having another bad tournament. Whatever this setup and the atmosphere throws at players, Selby is the kind of character who will find a way to enjoy it, rather than being bothered by it. It will also be interesting to see how Nigel Bond plays, having just won the shoot-out event. I don't think it's really much of a form indicator, and even if it was, winning a title just before a tournament seems to work against players these days anyway. The Hendry-Trump clash is perhaps the most exciting prospect of the round. Trump hasn't done much in the main ranking events yet, and whenever it looked like he was ready for a good run in the past, he wasn't able to deliver. Maybe this could be the place. He has already won a PTC event in Germany this season. Hendry looks like a good seed to be up against at the moment, but as I have been saying all season, he seems to raise his game after new year. He was very poor in the UK Championship, but looked much better in the Masters, losing to a very good Robertson. I fancy him to be up for this match. But he'll certainly be up against it if he meets Selby in the 2nd round, judging by how their recent meetings went.
The other two matches in this quarter are quite familiar prospects, from as recently as the 1st round of the UK Championship. Peter Ebdon lost to Higginson that time, and only won in the decider in 2008. Judging by that, Higginson is quite capable of match Ebdon, and with it being a one-session match this time, he will fancy his chances even more. Ebdon is one of the more unpredictable players, so you never really know when he might play a good tournament. He hasn't shown his best yet this season, not even in reaching the SF of the World Open, so I would expect him to shine in one of the remaining tournaments. Ding and Stevens seem to play each other a lot, and it's usually a close match. Having said that, Ding was very convincing at the UK, never really giving Stevens a chance. He played by far the best snooker in the Masters, so he has the form, but on the other hand, it's tough to play good snooker in back-to-back events, and the winner of the previous event usually underperforms. Stevens has the class to take him out, as does Ebdon, but with Ding having a good record against those two, I would still put him as favourite to reach the QF.
Quarter 3:
Mark Williams v. A.McGill/M.Wehrmann
Ronnie O'Sullivan v. Dominic Dale
Jamie Cope v. Joe Perry
Allister Carter v. Stephen Lee
Right, with O'Sullivan withdrawing, it looks like I've wasted a bunch of time on writing about his chances, and his potential clash with Williams.
No matter, let's re-asses... That leaves Dominic Dale already in the 2nd round. He could have a good tournament here, having lived in a German-speaking country for a while, and being the kind of character who enjoys these non-routine surroundings. However, O'Sullivan's withdrawal now makes Williams a big favourite in this part of the draw. He hasn't been in the best form recently, basically scrapping his way to the UK Final, and losing in the 1st round of the Masters. But looking at it from another perspective, he lost to the eventual champion in each of the last three main events. So whatever form he is in, it still takes a good player to beat him. He is another great specialist for the Chinese events, so I would expect him to adapt well to this event as well. Even with O'Sullivan as part of the equation, Williams would still have been the highest seed in this part of the draw, but with O'Sullivan now out, the door for Williams is wide open. Having said that, Anthony McGill is another player I would love to see this week. He seems to be a great scorer, judging by the statistics at least, so I wonder what kind of a game he could give Williams.I was about to say that the remainder of this quarter would be less "anticipated", but not now. Cope and Perry have drawn each other a couple of times recently, and Carter always seems to be somewhere near them in the draw as well. Cope beat Perry in the 1st round of the 2009 WC, and followed that with another win in the Shanghai Masters at the start of the following season. I'm not sure if they've played each other since. Cope will be the seed this time, in fact, it's a very different situation altogether. Perry has not really been appearing on TV much recently, while Cope has been having some decent results as a top16 player, even if he is not quite good enough to really challenge for titles at the moment. It should be an interesting match, with Cope obviously being the favourite. Carter against Lee is another good prospect, a match that wouldn't be out of place in a later round than this. Lee has played quite well this season, giving John Higgins a great match at the UK, and looking in much better form than the one that saw him drop out of the top16. On the other hand, Carter surprisingly lost in the 1st round of both of the big events recently, even though he was a top8 seed. I would be surprised if he made it three in a row here. He now has two ranking titles to his name, both in events of a similar format, so he has to be the favourite to get through this part of the draw.
Quarter 4:
Shaun Murphy v. Ryan Day
Mark Allen v. J.Swail/H.Blanckaert
Mark King v. Marco Fu
John Higgins v. R.Milkins/L.Münstermann
And finally, a quite intriguing fourth quarter, full of interesting names. Murphy-Day is another repeat of a UK Championship clash. I think it could be a close match. Class is obviously on Murphy's side, as is ranking and the fact that he won that 2nd round match between them at the UK. From Day's perspective, it was largely these best-of-9 main ranking events that saw him get into the top8 in the last two years. The overseas events in particular have been his favourites, he reached finals in Malta as well as China, so there is no reason he can't do it in Germany. Then there is Mark Allen, another player who has to be strongly considered. He is the only player to reach the SF of both the UK and the Masters, so he is obviously one of the in-form players. But he is not really a player who reaches semi-finals with his B-game, so it's a big question how long he can hold his form. If he should play Day, I would expect him to win. Their games both rely on potting and scoring, but Allen has the advantage in temperament. But against Murphy... it would certainly be interesting. It's not a pairing we are used to, as they always seem to avoid each other, even though they were in the same quarter a couple of times recently. At this point in time, I would say Murphy would be favourite.
That only leaves the part with John Higgins. On first glance, it looks like a decent draw for him. Milkins played quite well in the shoot-out, but that was an event that suited him perfectly, whereas this is a different ball game. King and Fu could be trickier prospects, and the match between them is one of the more interesting in this round, in my opinion. They both played well in the Masters. King could only hold it for one match, playing probably his best snooker of the last couple of years against Selby, then falling apart against Cope. On the other hand, Fu had a better run. He scored really well to open up a lead against Maguire, punished Ebdon's mistakes and whitewashed him, before he was finally tested against Allen. He made a great comeback in that match, compiling all kinds of big breaks, a part of his game that makes him a really dangerous player. It's nice to see his return to form, it's just a question if he can find any consistency. Following a good tournament with a bad one has always been a trademark of his, and even though he is the favourite for this match, he is actually a qualifier this week. Still, his record against Higgins is very good, and he often raises his game against the top players. I would still go with Higgins though. After winning the UK, he played his "bad tournament" at the Masters, so I would expect normal service to be resumed.
Possible QF lineup:
Graeme Dott v. Ricky Walden
Mark Selby v. Ding Junhui
Mark Williams v. Allister Carter
Shaun Murphy v. John Higgins
So there you go... Hopefully it will be a good tournament, and I hope everyone enjoys it as much as I will.
Discuss...
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