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No interest in the Shanghai Masters this year?
I think it could be a great tournament, especially as it's not the season opener this time. The wildcard lineup looks slightly weaker than usual, with the likes of Yu Delu and Tian Pengfei now on the Main Tour. Still, there are a couple of familiar names, and it will be interesting to see how well they do.
Let's have a look at the draw...
Quarter 1:
Allister Carter v. Mark King
Peter Ebdon v. F.O'Brien/H.Vafaei
Ronnie O'Sullivan v. J.Wattana/Jin L.
Stephen Maguire v. A.Hamilton/Li H.
The top quarter doesn't look particularly strong at first glance, so a good chance for Carter to get through. He does have two potentially tricky matches though. King might have been a good draw for the qualifiers in the past, but as a qualifier himself, he can be pretty dangerous here. Peter Ebdon could be tricky in the 2nd round as well. He has a very poor record against Carter, but he did win his last ranking title in China two years ago, so you can't count him out. On the other hand, Fergal O'Brien is exactly the kind of player Ebdon struggles against. It was a similar case in Australia, where he lost his opening match against Rory McLeod. All things considered, I think Carter has a very favourable draw here.
It will be interesting to see how the other two pairs play out. Stephen Maguire is the top seed, but he is not really among the favourites to win the title. He still has good runs in tournaments, but it's been a while since his last really memorable performance. He has two potential worries here, Anthony Hamilton and Li Hang. It will be interesting to see how well Li plays, after his great run at the China Open last season. Considering how inconsistent the two seeds here can be, he could be a danger again. Ronnie O'Sullivan makes his first appearance in the major events this season, after a couple of good performances in the PTCs. This is the place of his last ranking win in 2009, but also clearly not his favourite part of the world. Also, he won't have pleasant memories of his last big match against James Wattana at the 2006 China Open, where Wattana whitewashed him 5-0. I don't see a strong favourite here, so let's go with Maguire by default.
Quarter 2:
Shaun Murphy v. D.Dale/Cao X.
Mark Allen v. Ryan Day
Jamie Cope v. J.Lisowski/Rouzi M.
Mark Selby v. N.Bond/T.Thirapongpaiboon
The second quarter looks a bit stronger, with a couple of good qualifiers to spice things up. A tough opening match for Shaun Murphy, up against Dominic Dale, a former winner of this event. Both players played well in Australia, especially Dale. But I guess it's not really likely for Dale to have two good tournaments back to back, while Murphy is somewhat more consistent. Allen and Day meet again, in what should be one of the more exciting matches of the 1st round. They played each other at the Australian Open, where Allen won 5-3. I think it could go either way here. Both players have had some good results in the overseas events in the past, particularly Day. Whoever wins will be second favourite against Murphy though.
Mark Selby is the other big name in this quarter. He has already won two minor titles this season, and he has a very strong position in the rankings. I would make him one of the immediate favourites here. His draw until the QF is not too bad either. I suppose Jamie Cope is his only really big threat here. Cope has played a couple of good Chinese tournaments in the past, even though he doesn't really look like the kind of person who enjoys these travels. Still, he has a decent chance of going through if Selby is off his game. The wildcard match between Bond and Thirapongpaiboon could be quite interesting here as well. I don't think there will be any surprises though, and I expect Selby to prevail.
Quarter 3:
Mark Williams v. Andrew Higginson
Stephen Hendry v. R.Milkins/Tang J.
Matthew Stevens v. Stephen Lee
Ding Junhui v. Martin Gould
The third quarter is the one I'm particularly looking forward to. As interesting as it is though, it's not all that open, because two players clearly stand out. The first is Mark Williams, a dangerman in any tournament these days. The defeat in the Australian Open final must have been a painful one for him, so it will be interesting to see how well he recovers. He should get past Higginson here, but Stephen Hendry could be a somewhat bigger obstacle. He should get past the 1st round himself, because Milkins is an opponent who suits him, if indeed it is Milkins. Tang Jun can't be underestimated either, considering he has beaten a player as good as Judd Trump in the past. Having said that, it really should be Williams against Hendry. A match between two good friends, and also the two players who have won more trophies in Asia than anyone else. It could go either way, but Williams is obviously the favourite.
The other two matches are two of the most interesting in the 1st round. Lee's last appearance in China was a very memorable one, particularly his 1st round match against Williams. I think he has a decent chance to get past Stevens here. Stevens may not be the player he once was, but he has been playing consistently decent snooker for some time now. In contrast to Lee though, his last Chinese appearance was a dreadful one, he was whitewashed by Hendry in the 1st round. Ding against Gould is another great prospect. Gould has developed a reputation as a very dangerous qualifier, but he was outplayed by Hendry in Australia. Ding is an even tougher opponent, especially as he is a brilliant breakbuilder, and Gould does leave a lot of chances for his opponents when he is not quite at the top of his game. Whatever happens, the 2nd round match here promises to be a good one. If it happens to be Ding against Stevens I would make Ding a heavy favourite though.
Quarter 4:
Neil Robertson v. Liang Wenbo
Graeme Dott v. M.Holt/Cai J.
Judd Trump v. Stuart Bingham
John Higgins v. Mark Davis
The final quarter is another strong one, with three of the best qualifiers. Robertson against Liang is surely one of the highlights of the 1st round. Considering this is the second major event of the season, I don't expect too many seeds to go out early, but I think Robertson could be in danger. He probably has the worst Chinese record of any top player, having never gone beyond the 2nd round. On the other hand, Liang is a former finalist in this event. He had a dreadful last season, but he has played some decent snooker in the last two months. The World Cup win will surely have given him some confidence, and his last16 appearance in Australia was a decent result as well. I wouldn't be surprised to see him go through. I always mention Dott as a strong overseas player, but he has had his share of poor results recently. He played very poorly in the China Open last season, and of course he had to miss the Australian Open. It's a tough call, but Liang perhaps looks like the best bet here.
And finally, we have a possible repeat of the World final in the 2nd round, but two very strong qualifiers to be beaten first. Mark Davis played well in the last two Chinese events, particularly Shanghai last year, when he reached the QF. It doesn't get any tougher than Higgins in the 1st round though. Higgins has been pretty mediocre so far this season, even losing a 1st round match against Selt in Australia. He can be vulnerable in these events, but he also has the class to ease through. Then there is Bingham, the winner of the previous event, which of course is not usually a good sign. He played very good snooker in Australia, but can he keep it up for another event? Trump's performance in Australia was the opposite, losing in the 1st round, but he has shown better form in the PTCs after that. He is also the most recent Chinese winner, so he should feel at home. It's another tough call, as I find all four players pretty unpredictable. I suppose Higgins is the man to beat, but I have a feeling it could be Trump as well.
Possible QF lineup:
Allister Carter v. Stephen Maguire
Shaun Murphy v. Mark Selby
Mark Williams v. Ding Junhui
Liang Wenbo v. Judd Trump
So there we go... A good week of early-morning snooker ahead of us. I'm very much looking forward to it.
I think it could be a great tournament, especially as it's not the season opener this time. The wildcard lineup looks slightly weaker than usual, with the likes of Yu Delu and Tian Pengfei now on the Main Tour. Still, there are a couple of familiar names, and it will be interesting to see how well they do.
Let's have a look at the draw...
Quarter 1:
Allister Carter v. Mark King
Peter Ebdon v. F.O'Brien/H.Vafaei
Ronnie O'Sullivan v. J.Wattana/Jin L.
Stephen Maguire v. A.Hamilton/Li H.
The top quarter doesn't look particularly strong at first glance, so a good chance for Carter to get through. He does have two potentially tricky matches though. King might have been a good draw for the qualifiers in the past, but as a qualifier himself, he can be pretty dangerous here. Peter Ebdon could be tricky in the 2nd round as well. He has a very poor record against Carter, but he did win his last ranking title in China two years ago, so you can't count him out. On the other hand, Fergal O'Brien is exactly the kind of player Ebdon struggles against. It was a similar case in Australia, where he lost his opening match against Rory McLeod. All things considered, I think Carter has a very favourable draw here.
It will be interesting to see how the other two pairs play out. Stephen Maguire is the top seed, but he is not really among the favourites to win the title. He still has good runs in tournaments, but it's been a while since his last really memorable performance. He has two potential worries here, Anthony Hamilton and Li Hang. It will be interesting to see how well Li plays, after his great run at the China Open last season. Considering how inconsistent the two seeds here can be, he could be a danger again. Ronnie O'Sullivan makes his first appearance in the major events this season, after a couple of good performances in the PTCs. This is the place of his last ranking win in 2009, but also clearly not his favourite part of the world. Also, he won't have pleasant memories of his last big match against James Wattana at the 2006 China Open, where Wattana whitewashed him 5-0. I don't see a strong favourite here, so let's go with Maguire by default.
Quarter 2:
Shaun Murphy v. D.Dale/Cao X.
Mark Allen v. Ryan Day
Jamie Cope v. J.Lisowski/Rouzi M.
Mark Selby v. N.Bond/T.Thirapongpaiboon
The second quarter looks a bit stronger, with a couple of good qualifiers to spice things up. A tough opening match for Shaun Murphy, up against Dominic Dale, a former winner of this event. Both players played well in Australia, especially Dale. But I guess it's not really likely for Dale to have two good tournaments back to back, while Murphy is somewhat more consistent. Allen and Day meet again, in what should be one of the more exciting matches of the 1st round. They played each other at the Australian Open, where Allen won 5-3. I think it could go either way here. Both players have had some good results in the overseas events in the past, particularly Day. Whoever wins will be second favourite against Murphy though.
Mark Selby is the other big name in this quarter. He has already won two minor titles this season, and he has a very strong position in the rankings. I would make him one of the immediate favourites here. His draw until the QF is not too bad either. I suppose Jamie Cope is his only really big threat here. Cope has played a couple of good Chinese tournaments in the past, even though he doesn't really look like the kind of person who enjoys these travels. Still, he has a decent chance of going through if Selby is off his game. The wildcard match between Bond and Thirapongpaiboon could be quite interesting here as well. I don't think there will be any surprises though, and I expect Selby to prevail.
Quarter 3:
Mark Williams v. Andrew Higginson
Stephen Hendry v. R.Milkins/Tang J.
Matthew Stevens v. Stephen Lee
Ding Junhui v. Martin Gould
The third quarter is the one I'm particularly looking forward to. As interesting as it is though, it's not all that open, because two players clearly stand out. The first is Mark Williams, a dangerman in any tournament these days. The defeat in the Australian Open final must have been a painful one for him, so it will be interesting to see how well he recovers. He should get past Higginson here, but Stephen Hendry could be a somewhat bigger obstacle. He should get past the 1st round himself, because Milkins is an opponent who suits him, if indeed it is Milkins. Tang Jun can't be underestimated either, considering he has beaten a player as good as Judd Trump in the past. Having said that, it really should be Williams against Hendry. A match between two good friends, and also the two players who have won more trophies in Asia than anyone else. It could go either way, but Williams is obviously the favourite.
The other two matches are two of the most interesting in the 1st round. Lee's last appearance in China was a very memorable one, particularly his 1st round match against Williams. I think he has a decent chance to get past Stevens here. Stevens may not be the player he once was, but he has been playing consistently decent snooker for some time now. In contrast to Lee though, his last Chinese appearance was a dreadful one, he was whitewashed by Hendry in the 1st round. Ding against Gould is another great prospect. Gould has developed a reputation as a very dangerous qualifier, but he was outplayed by Hendry in Australia. Ding is an even tougher opponent, especially as he is a brilliant breakbuilder, and Gould does leave a lot of chances for his opponents when he is not quite at the top of his game. Whatever happens, the 2nd round match here promises to be a good one. If it happens to be Ding against Stevens I would make Ding a heavy favourite though.
Quarter 4:
Neil Robertson v. Liang Wenbo
Graeme Dott v. M.Holt/Cai J.
Judd Trump v. Stuart Bingham
John Higgins v. Mark Davis
The final quarter is another strong one, with three of the best qualifiers. Robertson against Liang is surely one of the highlights of the 1st round. Considering this is the second major event of the season, I don't expect too many seeds to go out early, but I think Robertson could be in danger. He probably has the worst Chinese record of any top player, having never gone beyond the 2nd round. On the other hand, Liang is a former finalist in this event. He had a dreadful last season, but he has played some decent snooker in the last two months. The World Cup win will surely have given him some confidence, and his last16 appearance in Australia was a decent result as well. I wouldn't be surprised to see him go through. I always mention Dott as a strong overseas player, but he has had his share of poor results recently. He played very poorly in the China Open last season, and of course he had to miss the Australian Open. It's a tough call, but Liang perhaps looks like the best bet here.
And finally, we have a possible repeat of the World final in the 2nd round, but two very strong qualifiers to be beaten first. Mark Davis played well in the last two Chinese events, particularly Shanghai last year, when he reached the QF. It doesn't get any tougher than Higgins in the 1st round though. Higgins has been pretty mediocre so far this season, even losing a 1st round match against Selt in Australia. He can be vulnerable in these events, but he also has the class to ease through. Then there is Bingham, the winner of the previous event, which of course is not usually a good sign. He played very good snooker in Australia, but can he keep it up for another event? Trump's performance in Australia was the opposite, losing in the 1st round, but he has shown better form in the PTCs after that. He is also the most recent Chinese winner, so he should feel at home. It's another tough call, as I find all four players pretty unpredictable. I suppose Higgins is the man to beat, but I have a feeling it could be Trump as well.
Possible QF lineup:
Allister Carter v. Stephen Maguire
Shaun Murphy v. Mark Selby
Mark Williams v. Ding Junhui
Liang Wenbo v. Judd Trump
So there we go... A good week of early-morning snooker ahead of us. I'm very much looking forward to it.
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