Who will be The 2012 World Snooker Champion?

[ADR147]

it's a long event with a lot of tough matches and you need luck to win it - can't see ding myself, selby depends on his form on the day, higgins will always be tough to beat as is williams but for me on the odds ronnie looks the best bet. but outsiders like luca and jamie jones are not inpossible.

[bobby1979]

Robbo - he's a great match player.

[montoya10]

it's a long event with a lot of tough matches and you need luck to win it - can't see ding myself, selby depends on his form on the day, higgins will always be tough to beat as is williams but for me on the odds ronnie looks the best bet. but outsiders like luca and jamie jones are not inpossible.

Higgins and Williams looked out of their own games for much of the season, but I agree, one shouldn't count them out. Ronnie's health, Selby's injury, Allen and Trump's daily form, and Ding's mental toughness. All of these will play a role in this year's edition and possibly one of the tougher seasons of recent times to predict an outright winner.

[CueInAction]

I predict I'll pick up the trophy this year!!

wc1.jpg

In truth I think this may be the most difficult year to pick a winner. I put my money on Allen at 20/1 about 6 months back (still a good bet at 14/1 imo) and pretty happy with that decision. Reckon theres a good chance of a new name on the trophy this year with Trump, Ding & Selby all dangerous, as well as Maguire if he can keep his A game throughout.

[FOXMULDER]

Ronnie O'Sullivan.

But I wouldn't bet against the champ. Higgins has won 3 of the last 5 World Championships. A poor 12 months means nothing as he clearly goes up a level at the Crucible.

[daffie]

Ronnie O'Sullivan.

But I wouldn't bet against the champ. Higgins has won 3 of the last 5 World Championships. A poor 12 months means nothing as he clearly goes up a level at the Crucible.

I agree. Last year was below-standard for him, but very understandable after the highly emotional & succesful year before that. Count Higgins in for at least a semi this year...

[johnsusername]

It's a long tournament - physically and mentally tough. A real challenge! As most people have said, there are a handful who could win it. For me, the favourites are Robertson, Higgins (them two for match play, experience, temperament and Robbo for fitness) and Trump (for skill, fitness, belief). I'd say Mark Allen is a strong dark horse. And you know, 66-1 for Ebdon - IF he can get past Ronnie then who knows? Big first hurdle to jump though!

I personally think it'll come down to who has been there and done it before. But it'd be good to see someone new win, maybe Allen or Trump.

[Odrl]

Ah yes, who is going to win the 2012 World Championship? I took a little break from snooker after the China Open, trying not to over-analyze things again, but with the championship almost upon us, I do have some opinions...


Looking at the draw, I think it's quite a strong field of qualifiers this year. Usually you get a couple real outsiders, such as Joe Delaney or Andrew Pagett in recent years, but this year even the players who look the worst on paper could potentially be quite dangerous.

I suppose the two less-known Chinese players, Cao Yupeng and Liu Chuang, are what you might call outsiders. A number of Chinese players have produced impressive performances in recent seasons, either as wildcards or on the Main Tour itself, but Cao isn't really one of them. This is already the best run of his career and any progress beyond the 1st round would be a big surprise. Liu is more familiar of course, having qualified as a 17-year-old in 2008, but he hasn't really been able to build on that success since. In fact, he has done nothing of any significance in the game at all. Looking at some of the recent Chinese debuts at the Crucible, the likes of Zhang Anda, Liang Wenbo and even Liu himself all played pretty well, so I don't expect these two to embarrass themselves, but I do think they will lose early.

Of the British players, Jamie Jones is in a similar position. He had a big win over John Higgins at the PTC Finals, and also played at the China Open, losing in the wildcard round. To beat Ricky Walden 10-2 in qualifying is certainly impressive, and with the qualifiers held so close to the main event this year, surely some of that form will still be there. I would be surprised if he got past the 1st round though. David Gilbert is also an outsider here, although he does have Crucible experience. He played Stephen Hendry on his debut, and led 5-1 at one point, playing good stuff. I think the best he has ever played was against Mark Williams at the 2009 Welsh Open, winning 5-1 with mostly one-visit stuff. He is a player who can go on a good scoring streak, so I can't rule out a decent run here, but he is obviously not a realistic contender for the title.

Who else is not? Of the more experienced players, I would rule out the likes of Mark Davis, Joe Perry and Ken Doherty. Davis has found some consistently good form over the last couple of seasons, but other than climbing up the rankings and fighting for a top16 place, he hasn't really done anything noteworthy. Joe Perry was in a similar position a couple of seasons ago, but has since dropped down the rankings and done very little in the major events. Still, he is not to be underestimated, as he is a specialist in the longer format, a former semi-finalist in both the UK and the World Championships. His appearance at the business end of the tournament wouldn't be a big surprise, but winning the title would be a huge shock. As for Doherty, he is also still capable of a good run, as he showed in Australia this season, by reaching the semi-finals. But there is no way you can win the World title being as inconsistent as Doherty is. Even if he plays well, surely he will have a bad session or two, and he doesn't really have the firepower to compensate for it anymore.

Whom else can we rule out? Andrew Higginson most likely. He has become a really respectable opponent for anyone over the last couple of seasons, but his 2007 Welsh Open run still remains by far his best performance on the big stage. I wouldn't expect him to take out any major contenders here. I would also rule out Ryan Day at this point. He is another player who has dropped down the rankings in recent years, but to be honest, I would have ruled him out in his prime as well. He was a terrific scorer, capable of outplaying anyone in an open game on his day, but he always seemed to succumb to the pressure on the big stage. If he didn't win anything when he was playing really well, he is certainly not going to win the WC now when he is playing poorly most of the time. At this point I would also rule out Dominic Dale and Barry Hawkins. While Dale is very capable of beating any player, a run of several wins is perhaps beyond him at this point in time. I think Hawkins is perhaps more suited to the format of the WC, being a more methodical player who relies a lot on his safety game. He is also a good scorer when he is in form, but scoring is an element of his game that comes and goes, and it really needs to be more dependable to last for 17 days. He is a player who could have good runs in his 30s, similar to Joe Perry perhaps, but I can't really see him winning the WC.

And finally, I think we can safely rule out Luca Brecel as well. The problem with players like him is that they often have spells of really good form even before they mature as players. If he is going to be a top player in his 20s, there is no reason why he can't occasionally reach a good standard as a teenager. In his particular case, it also helps that he is not really a one-dimensional player. He is already a decent tactical player, a decent scorer and a pretty good potter. He also showed a lot of bottle in his last two qualifying matches, so I don't expect him to be overwhelmed at the Crucible. And by qualifying for this event, he has already proven himself in "session snooker". It's interesting, a lot of really young players have qualified for the Crucible in recent seasons, despite not doing much in other events. I guess some players just manage to raise their game a bit in a longer match. Having said all of that, the title is obviously too much to ask from Brecel. He has already broken one record by qualifying. He may well become the youngest World champion ever, but it won't be this year.

That leaves twenty players who have at least an outside chance of doing something at the Crucible, although I do have my doubts about some of them.

Starting with Stephen Hendry... I have many reasons to think he is not going to win this event, so where to start? His inconsistency perhaps. How many times has he played a really good match in recent seasons, only to then follow it with a terrible one? Or if we stick to the Crucible, how many times has he looked quite good, only to put in an awful session and lose a match he could have won? Also, his tactical game is quite poor most of the time. It's less of a problem when you pot and score the way Hendry used to, but when you don't, it's impossible to win matches and tournaments by being tactically poor. And another thing, for all of his fighting qualities, I sometimes can't understand why he doesn't play on for snookers, even when the balls are in good positions. It's one thing not wanting to break your rhythm when in front, but in a close match, it can make the difference between winning and losing. His concentration is another weakness, wasting chances by missing easy pots. He seems to cut it out at times, but I can't see him holding it for 17 days. So, why is Hendry in this category at all? Well, he still has a couple of things going for him, his reputation for a start. He has won quite a few matches when his opponents bottled it from a winning position, his win over Gould at the China Open being a good example. He is also vastly experienced, knows how to handle any situation on and off the table. And finally, his runs in 2008 and 2009 are good examples of what can always happen. If he can find the same kind of form, he probably still has the scoring game to get through a couple of rounds.

Liang Wenbo is obviously a longshot as well. He has basically been an "ordinary" top32 player for the last two years, with his 2008-2009 form nowhere to be seen. When he reached the Shanghai Masters final in 2009 and followed it up with a quarter-final at the UK Championship, it was difficult to see him not winning anything in the following couple of seasons. I at least expected him to establish himself as a top player, in the same way Mark Allen did before he finally won his first ranking event. The problem with Liang is not only the lack of progress, it's the inexplicable decline in his early 20s. I still have some hopes for him though. When he was really playing well, he could go on a good scoring run, playing one-visit stuff at times, and he is also well suited to this format, being quite a composed, methodical player. He has looked like doing something at times this season, so I wouldn't rule out a good performance here. I'm not sure what kind of state his tactical game is in at this point in time though. I've always thought his execution of safety shots was actually quite good, but his shot selection leaves a lot to be desired.

Marco Fu is not on many people's list of favourites either, quite understandably. You could hardly find a better example of inconsistency. It's interesting, when he plays well, there is no real weakness in his game. So you would think that kind of solid all-round game would get him through bad patches of form, but everything just seems to fall apart. Personally, I think Fu will probably play crap, but if we assume he is up for it, he could be very dangerous indeed. As I said, he is the complete player. He is excellent in the balls, doesn't play anything stupid, and he has an excellent temperament. He is also a long-format specialist, a former UK finalist and WC semi-finalist.

I think Stuart Bingham probably won't feature at the business end either, but we certainly have to at least consider any of this season's ranking event winners. Playing the way he did in Australia would certainly help. He was excellent there, particularly with his back against the wall in the final. He's had some good scalps on the big stage in the past and generally handles pressure pretty well. He is also a player who scores well enough to put himself in contention, but can he hold it for 17 days? He has been very quiet since his ranking title, not doing anything notable in the major events. It's often like this after players have an unexpected run. I remember Fergal O'Brien's interview after the 2007 Northern Ireland Trophy, where he said he was "back", and we're still waiting for another good performance from him. The same goes for Higginson, Dale, Burnett, etc. I wouldn't be surprised if Bingham's case is the same...

Now that we've got inconsistency out of the way, let's have a look at Matthew Stevens and Martin Gould, two players I suspect are not really mentally strong enough to win the World Championship. Stevens has played alright for most of the season, particularly in the first months of 2012, but he hasn't really challenged for any titles. He always seems to come up against in-form players. Either that, or he plays poorly himself. I would be very surprised if he won the title here. If anyone is a master of throwing matches away, it's Stevens. I think as soon as there is a pressure situation towards the end of a big match, Stevens is second favourite. Still, he used to be a long-format specialist in his prime, with an excellent record at the Crucible. Gould is another player who knows a thing or two about throwing matches away. He has collapsed a number of times on the big stage, his defeat to Robertson at the Crucible in 2010 being the most memorable occasion. He has also lost three PTC finals, once being whitewashed, the other two times losing when close to victory. Even a couple of weeks ago at the China Open, his loss to Hendry was inexcusable. His recent form in general has been poor, losing early in all major events of 2012. Still, there is no doubt he is an excellent potter and scorer when things are going for him, capable of outplaying any player in an open game. The problem is of course, you can't really expect five open games at the WC.

There are two more players I have serious doubts about. Allister Carter was always a decent bet in the last couple of years, but less so this time. His season has been one giant struggle, not showing any of the form that got him in the top8 in the rankings. I'm not sure how his health is at the moment, but 17 days of the Crucible are a big ask in any case. On top of that, he has never been one to raise his game when the pressure is really on, although it's not as bad as it used to be. He reached the quarter-finals at the China Open, so perhaps he can salvage something from this season with a strong finish. If he can play his best, he certainly has the firepower to go far. Speaking of firepower, what a year Stephen Lee has had! I keep expecting his form to drop at some point, but he keeps impressing. His performances over the last couple of months would have been impressive for any player, let alone someone who had dropped out of the top16 and seemed to have his best days behind him. If he plays the way he's been playing recently, I can see why a lot of people would consider him among the immediate contenders for the title. I am not entirely convinced though, because there is a serious danger Lee peaked too early and his form finally goes. Also, his physical fitness has always been a concern. It's no surprise his best performances have been in short matches, mostly the PTC series and the "standard" ranking events. He beat Neil Robertson very convincingly on two occasions recently, but what if a player like that decides it would be a good idea to slow the match down and get into a couple of hours of scraping around? Is Lee likely to come out of a situation like that as the winner? I reckon not.

So, twelve players remain. These are, in my opinion, the more realistic contenders for this year's title.

Shall we start with Ronnie O'Sullivan? A couple of months ago I would have been surprised if O'Sullivan won another World title. It's still unlikely, but he has certainly made a case for himself, mainly with his performance in the German Masters. He was impressive on two levels, with his actual game on the table, as well as mentally. I'm not sure which of the two is more important... It had looked like some of the other top players were starting to play consistently better snooker than him when he was dropping down the rankings. He lost a couple of matches against Trump, and he generally seems to find it hard to compete with the likes of Selby and Robertson. But his win in Germany proved he still has the game to win ranking titles, and he still has the bottle to respond in style to one-visit snooker from his opponent. Another thing Germany proved was that he is still hungry for titles. I actually think he made a good point in his post-match interview, when he said he "nicked" the title and there probably weren't many left. That's not necessarily a bad attitude, if it makes him fight harder to win something before he declines further. His long potting seems to have returned to a decent level, he just needs to cut out the easy misses. In many ways, his decline has been similar to Stephen Hendry's. Parts of his game are probably better than Hendry's were six years ago although, ironically, Hendry was number one in the rankings in 2006. I think O'Sullivan still has an aura about him, and it makes certain players crack whenever he applies a bit of pressure, even some of the top ones. He is probably one of the players whose chances most depend on the draw he gets. While he will be pleased to see his name near Williams' in the draw, he won't be too happy to be in the same quarter as Ebdon and Robertson. If he must play Ebdon, I think he will probably be happy it's in the 1st round, because it's still only a two-session match. With the way Ebdon won the China Open, getting a lot of criticism for slow play, and with that infamous 2005 quarter-final still very much in everyone's memory, there is a lot of expectation about this match. But I think I'm right in saying that O'Sullivan hasn't actually lost to Ebdon since 2005. Personally, I think he will be up for it. As for the rest of the tournament, well, it only really takes one bad session to put you out of contention, and O'Sullivan usually does have one. To hold a high level of concentration for 17 days is a lot to ask of anyone, especially a player for whom this is usually such a struggle. If he is to win the title, he will first need to be ready for a fight, and then bring the kind of form that will see him outplay the other top players as well. Personally, I don't think that will happen. But the guy is still one of the best scorers in the game, so you never know...

Graeme Dott is in many ways the opposite of O'Sullivan. Mental toughness is his greatest strength and he is certainly not likely to have problems with concentration. He is not among the immediate favourites, but surely he deserves at least a mention here, considering he reached three of the last eight finals at the Crucible, winning one of them. When talking about Dott's chances, I think the most relevant part of his career to consider are these last two years. I suppose the 2010 WC was the time he finally got through his problems and got back towards the top of the game. I say towards the top, because he seems to have established himself as a solid top16 player, going through an early round or two of most major tournaments, but not really challenging for titles on a consistent basis. Even before he dropped down the rankings, he was not a particularly prolific winner. He does not have the firepower of some of the other top players, although if he scores the way he did in 2010, he has nothing to be afraid of. His safety game is very solid, and very "natural", although that's not a term I usually like to use. What I mean is, it seems to come pretty easy to him. When I think back to his semi-final match with Selby two years ago, it just seemed like Selby needed a lot of thought to play good safety shots, while Dott played his replies pretty quickly, and very well in most cases. Any more possible weaknesses? Not really, he handles pressure well, he knows how to pace himself, and he has the experience to win this. Perhaps slow play is something that can get to him, considering his very poor record against the likes of Ebdon, and his two Crucible loses to Ian McCulloch. He also lost to Joe Perry in the 1st round a couple of years ago, so it's probably not an ideal draw for him. And ultimately, if a top player plays like Trump did against him last year, it will be very tough for Dott to cope with it.

It will be very interesting to see what Peter Ebdon does in this event. I think winning the China Open at his age was remarkable, especially since he had already dropped down the rankings and showed nothing prior to the event. He produced his trademark methodical, extremely composed game, and played with tremendous concentration and determination all week. That's exactly why he is always such a danger at the Crucible. This is the venue where his greatest attributes are of most use. And if he was having any doubts about his game, they've surely gone now. On the other hand, he has always been someone who plays one or two good tournaments a season, and having just played one, there is a good chance he will go back to his mediocre standard here. The same thing happened when he won the China Open in 2009, he followed it with a 1st round exit at the Crucible. I think it's slightly different this time, because he also had a qualifying match to play in between the events, and winning it 10-0 will only boost his confidence further. I am not sure O'Sullivan is the opponent he wanted to draw in the 1st round though. Yes, he knows he can beat him at the Crucible, but as I said earlier, I don't think he has actually beaten him since 2005. All things considered, you can't really rule out a player who just won a ranking event, beating five solid top16 players on his way, but at the same time, as the winner of the previous event, I don't expect him to do too well here.

Another player who is probably not expected to do too well is Mark Williams. Yes, he reached two ranking finals at the start of the season, but somehow that just seems like ancient history at this point. While he hasn't exactly embarrassed himself in the rest of the season, he hasn't played like a top4 player either. I expected him to at least have a good run or two in the overseas events, considering his excellent record outside of the UK, but that hasn't happened either. Were those two ranking finals still the result of last season's momentum? Or are his current poor performances the result of those two defeats in deciders? I can't say for sure, but it could also just be a case of inconsistency that comes with age. Good start to the season, a drop in form in the middle part, followed by another form peak at the very end? Sounds good, doesn't it? I suppose you never know with Williams. He could go back to the way he played in 2011, and if he does, he will be very hard to stop. At his best, he is a complete player. He scores well, can force unlikely openings with good potting, has a solid safety game, and all the experience in the world. Pressure play could be a slight problem... While he has been a tremendous pressure player over the years, his three recent ranking final defeats in deciders have shown some weakness, although Higgins and Bingham in particular played tremendously well to come back at him. Also, similarly to O'Sullivan, Williams is prone to a bad session or two over a long tournament such as this. He was in control of the match against Higgins last year, or to put it another way, he had a great chance to take control, but he just seemed to struggle to hold it together. His concentration ran out and he started making mistakes. You can't really afford that if you want to win the title. And finally, once again his problem could be Ronnie O'Sullivan. The guy has beaten him every time they've played a major match in the last ten years. Williams either plays well, only for O'Sullivan to play out of his skin and still beat him, or he plays poorly and already looks defeated in the early stages of the match. Before the draw came out, I didn't give Williams much chance. But now that O'Sullivan has drawn an opponent who could take him out, perhaps Williams could find some much-needed inspiration...

Now, let's get all of the older players out of the way and have a look at John Higgins... Not a good season, it has to be said. With all the tournaments we've had, you would have expected Higgins to at least challenge for a title or two at some point. It just seems that all of the hunger that won him three major titles last season has gone out of him. I suppose it's understandable, it's always harder to motivate yourself to stay at the top of the game, than it is to get there. Higgins won the World title in 2007, 2009 and 2011. Unfortunately for him, he has to wait another year for 2013 to come along. I remember the season he had after his 2007 win, struggling with form and not winning anything. He was really determined to do something at the 2008 championship, but he just didn't have any momentum behind him, and he lost to Ryan Day. I can't help feeling this is a very similar situation. Even when he started to show a bit of form in recent months, he came up against the likes of Robert Milkins and Peter Ebdon playing extremely well. If his lack of form is a big reason he is not among the top favourites this year, it's his class that makes him an incredibly dangerous opponent and a contender in any circumstances. He could even win the title playing his B-game, which is, in my opinion, what happened in 2007 and 2011. His safety game is tremendous, as is his shot selection. His scoring is good even at the worst of times, let alone when he finds a bit of form. He is tremendous under pressure, and also with his back against the wall. Even if one has other favourites for the title, I don't think anyone would be surprised if Higgins won this. In my opinion, he has been the best player in the world in recent years. I think that mantle is up for grabs here, especially if someone like Trump, Selby or Robertson wins the World title. But if Higgins wins it, he will hold on to it, and I'm sure he has every intention of doing so.

That only leaves the younger contenders, Mark Allen being one of them. It was a long wait for him to finally win his first ranking title. And having won it, surely he will be very dangerous in the major events for the next couple of years. Even before he won the World Open, it was his performance in the UK final that was very impressive. Judd Trump applied tremendous pressure with one-visit snooker, only for Allen to come back at him with a similar reply, going on a run of one-visit frames and not missing anything in the process. He had ultimately left himself too much to do, but he showed both an incredible fighting spirit, as well as what he can do on the table when things are going for him. And it all finally came together for him at the World Open. At times he had to battle really hard, prevailing over Trump and Selby in deciding frames, other times he was able to administer a couple of good thrashings, particularly in the final against Lee. It was just about as well as you need to play to win major titles, and if Allen can produce that standard at the Crucible, he will be very tough to beat. It's not like he is a specialist for the smaller events either. He has now reached at least the semi-finals of the three biggest events, proving he is a big-occasion player. Also, I don't think there is any player in the game that holds any particular psychological edge over Allen, he knows he can beat anyone. Having said that, some of the other players still have more experience than him at this level. He is also not a brilliant tactician, although he has made some progress in that area recently. Unless you can really play your best for 17 days, you perhaps need a more reliable game to get you through a bad patch or two. Allen is a great fighter, so he can compensate for some of his tactical disadvantage, but it's still a weakness that could prevent him winning the title in 2012. I wouldn't rule him out though.

Then we have two players who are experiencing a title drought at the moment, but are still near the top of the rankings. The first is Shaun Murphy, always a dangerman at the Crucible. He has been one of the most consistent players this season, reaching at least the quarter-finals of every event from the Australian Open at the start of the season, right up to the World Open in the beginning of March. He then lost in the 1st round of the China Open to Lu Ning. The wrong time to start struggling perhaps? His Crucible record is quite solid, with several appearances at the business end. He is usually very tough to beat once he plays himself into a tournament, and with the draw he has here, there is every chance of doing so. He has a solid temperament, very unlikely to do anything silly in the course of the tournament, no matter what situation he finds himself in, or what kind of pressure he is under. His game is solid as well, without any major weaknesses. His scoring is very good, although perhaps too dependent on form, he has the potting ability to force openings, and he has the tactical knowledge to exploit any weakness in lesser tacticians. Having said that, there is certainly room for improvement, thinking back to the World final in 2009, where he was completely outclassed by Higgins. With some of the other contenders such as Robertson and Ding, and obviously Selby, playing the safety game to a very high level these days, Murphy might find it hard to match them. It also doesn't help that he hasn't won a major title for so long. His UK win in 2008 is his most recent big title, the kind you need on your CV to really be considered a WC contender. He has won other titles since, such at the Premier League, the Wuxi Classic, the Brazil Masters or the PTC Finals. A title is a title I suppose, but those don't impress me particularly. I think his best performance this season came in the Masters, where he was the best player for most of the week, but he failed to win the title in the end. These are wasted chances... He still has a few chances to win another World title, but then again, not that many.

Speaking of wasted chances, there is no better time to introduce Stephen Maguire. He too has been waiting for another major title since 2008, and unlike Murphy, he is yet to win a World title. I think he comes to this tournament with a better case than in the last couple of years. He reached two ranking finals in the run-up to the WC and has generally played his best snooker since at least 2008. I think he will see the German Masters as a wasted chance, because he really played tremendous snooker to get through a tricky draw, whitewashing Higgins and Murphy on the way. He applied the pressure with one-visit snooker in the final, looking untouchable in the early stages. On another day, his opponent could have cracked a bit, but he came up against a very determined O'Sullivan who responded brilliantly and put the pressure right back on Maguire. The China Open was another chance, but I think he is probably less disappointed about it, because he wasn't really the outstanding player of the week. In fact, his fightback against Ebdon in the final is to his credit, because he had already seemed to lose the will to fight and couldn't really get any rhythm going. Once Maguire gets in that state, he doesn't usually come out of it, but he did in China. If he can show something similar at the Crucible, he should be tough to beat. He has the firepower to do a lot of damage when things are going for him, so it's just the matter of limiting the damage when they are not. I've always thought that if Maguire is to win the World title, he will probably do so by beating everyone convincingly, and not really get into tense situations. He is alright under pressure, but there are players better than him. Tactically he is alright as well, but his patience sometimes lets him down. And you need a lot of it over 17 days. His main strength is obviously his scoring. Once he finds his rhythm, he is very tough to play against, and there are not many players who walk around the table with the same sort of commanding demeanor as an in-form Maguire. I think a couple of other players have a better chance this year, but it would certainly be foolish to underestimate Maguire.

So, we're down to the last four. These are, in my opinion, the most immediate contenders for this year's title.

Let's start with Ding Junhui... It's funny, I keep underestimating him for some reason. For example, I thought Selby was the stronger player ahead of their quarter-final match last year. Selby was making centuries every other frame, and I figured he would outplay Ding tactically, but Ding really took command of the match. I then had a similar feeling with Trump, he was also scoring ridiculously well, but once again Ding looked good for most of the match. So why is that? I didn't think I would be saying this a couple of years ago, but I think his game is starting to resemble Higgins' more and more with each season. He rarely plays anything flashy these days, his tactical game is on a very high level, and he is one of the best scorers in the game. If you do all of the fundamental things right, there has to be some reward. Just making a handy 40 break where another player would only make 25 can make the difference in matches and tournaments. There is still a lot of inconsistency in his game though. He lost early in quite a few of the tournaments this season, sometimes looking like he couldn't really be bothered. On the other hand, he won the Welsh Open playing textbook snooker, the kind you need to compete at the Crucible. He failed the get past the 2nd round on his first couple of attempts, so playing in the one-table situation was always going to be tricky the first time. I thought he handled it very well though, and now that he's got that extra experience, he has every chance of winning the title. His lack of heart used to be a big weakness in the past. It's still there sometimes, but it's not nearly as dramatic as before. In fact, some of the performances he's produced with his back to the wall recently have been excellent. He also doesn't seem to lose his concentration when the match goes too tactical or even scrappy. His match against Ebdon at the China Open is a good example. Yes, he lost his rhythm and ultimately the match, but he didn't get frustrated, he still played the right shots. He lost that particular scrap, but chances are he will win the next one that comes around. He is in a very tough section of the draw here, but as always, someone has to get through it.

That someone could also be Mark Selby, who finds himself in the same quarter. Unlike some other players, I don't think Selby will be too worried about his consistency. He seems to be a regular presence at the business end of tournaments. His big result of the season was winning the Shanghai Masters, his second ranking title, so he doesn't really have that pressure that comes with a title drought, like in the case of Murphy and Maguire. Perhaps a slight worry could be his performance in the UK Championship and the Masters in the middle part of the season, as you would normally expect Selby to be quite strong there. But looking at it from a different perspective, a slight loss of form in December and January is not necessarily a bad thing, if he can slowly build up his form towards the World Championship that is. I suppose that plan is looking good at the moment. He played quite well to reach the final of the Welsh Open, and was very close to reaching the final of the World Open as well, only losing to an excellent comeback from Mark Allen. He then had to withdraw from the China Open with an injury, which stopped his momentum, but gave him the chance to fully prepare for the WC. Of course I assume that his problems are behind him and are unlikely to cause him any problems here. He is another player who is very solid in every aspect of the game. He is an excellent tactician, a great battler in scrappy situations, excellent under pressure and with his back against the wall, and he is statistically the best scorer in the world. With a game like that, it's no surprise he is at the top of the rankings. He also doesn't have any opponents he consistently loses to. He has won a couple of titles, but one has the feeling it could have been more. I think his problem has sometimes been peaking too early, particularly at the Crucible. If you make ten centuries in the first week, chances are you won't make another ten in the second one, and that's where you need them most. If Selby can build himself into the tournament, without burning himself out too early, he will be very hard to stop.

As will Judd Trump, if he plays his best. Let's start with the obvious problem... He is expected to do well this year. He came to last year's event with a lot of confidence, having just won a ranking event, and not under much pressure to get a result. He was very relaxed and played an open, almost casual game. And he played it very well. He doesn't have the same luxury this year. If he goes out early, it will be a disappointment. I think he has had a pretty good season. A lot was expected of him, and he delivered by winning the UK Championship. He showed a lot of bottle and confidence in his own ability by beating O'Sullivan a couple of times in a "scoring duel". Some of the other top players still can't do that, even in 2012. He also showed on several occasions that his safety game can be very good, at least the execution of shots, if not the selection. His pressure play has also been impressive. He didn't panic when Allen was coming back at him in the UK final. He just waited for his chance and took it. He was also very good in the China Open final last season, as well as his WC semi-final against Ding. As for the World final, well, I think it's fair to say it wasn't pressure that got to him, but rather a lack of experience. If he finds himself in the same situation again, with that tricky blue to be played, will he play the right shot this time? He's got a lot of criticism for his shot selection this season, so it's hard to say, but I reckon he won't make the same mistakes twice. Of course to find himself in that situation, he would need to be in similar form, because you just can't go for as many shots as he does if your form is not good enough to get a high percentage. He was at his best in December, then alright for most of 2012. Is it time for his best to come around again? Interestingly, some of the players he beat on his way to the UK title managed to get their revenge in the following months, and he faces another one in the 1st round here, Dominic Dale. It may just be a coincidence, because the likes of Allen, Maguire, O'Sullivan and Robertson are great players, and were always capable of beating him, but it may also be a worrying sign that he failed to exploit a possible psychological edge on four separate occasions. Looking forward to seeing how it goes.

And finally, Neil Robertson, the Masters champion. In some way, he is the opposite of Trump. He was the defending champion last year, on the back of a decent but not a great season, and facing the trickiest possible opponent in the 1st round. He was really up against it. There is nowhere near the same level of pressure on him this year. Like the other three of my main contenders this year, he has already won a title this season, a major one in his case, so he doesn't really have a point to prove here. Not as much as someone like Maguire anyway. Robertson is another player with a complete game these days. He is still an excellent potter, although he doesn't rely on that part of his game as much anymore. He certainly doesn't play as many flashy shots. He is not the most fluent scorer, but like Mark Williams, he makes a lot of handy breaks at the right times. He has made great progress in his tactical play in the last couple of years. I think his refusal to be rushed has made him a much tougher opponent for a lot of players. He generally takes his time, particularly when faced with a tricky shot, and he won't play it until he is sure about it. A lot of the time his matches develop into a scrap as a result, but more often than not it's to his advantage, because he rarely loses concentration and never seems to get tired. You need a lot of stamina to compete over 17 days. Robertson has it, both physical and mental. He sometimes needs a bit of time to play himself into a tournament, so the best chance to take him out is in the early rounds. Looking at his draw here, it's tough to see that happening. And once Neil Robertson's name is in the quarter-finals, he doesn't find himself as second favourite too often. He also has that rare ability to raise his game under extreme pressure, and there is no one I would trust to play a key shot ahead of an in-form Robertson. I would like to say he is great with his back against the wall, but to be honest, it's tough to say. The only time he came from behind in a big match was against Gould two years ago. Every other time he took command of big matches early. He also seems to be able to turn rivalries in his favour. He used to struggle against Maguire for a while before turning it around, he lost twice to Trump before beating him in the Masters, and he had a poor record against Murphy but still beat him convincingly in the Masters final. Possible weaknesses? I have to think quite hard to find some, but I suppose his occasional lack of professionalism could be one of them. He has been known to sometimes come to a match unprepared. He is also not exactly a model of consistency. But assuming he is up for this event, he surely has to be one of the favourites.


So there we are, I told you I had some opinions. I did a similar post for the last three championships, always including the eventual winner in the last group. This time only one of my big four is a previous winner, so I think there is a pretty good chance there will be a new name on the trophy this year.

In any case, I am going to enjoy it tremendously.

[bigandyg]

Very interesting Odrl,thanks for taking the time to write it.

[checkSide]

Ah yes, who is going to win the 2012 World Championship? I took a little break from snooker after the China Open, trying not to over-analyze things again, but with the championship almost upon us, I do have some opinions...


Looking at the draw, I think it's quite a strong field of qualifiers this year. Usually you get a couple real outsiders, such as Joe Delaney or Andrew Pagett in recent years, but this year even the players who look the worst on paper could potentially be quite dangerous.

I suppose the two less-known Chinese players, Cao Yupeng and Liu Chuang, are what you might call outsiders. A number of Chinese players have produced impressive performances in recent seasons, either as wildcards or on the Main Tour itself, but Cao isn't really one of them. This is already the best run of his career and any progress beyond the 1st round would be a big surprise. Liu is more familiar of course, having qualified as a 17-year-old in 2008, but he hasn't really been able to build on that success since. In fact, he has done nothing of any significance in the game at all. Looking at some of the recent Chinese debuts at the Crucible, the likes of Zhang Anda, Liang Wenbo and even Liu himself all played pretty well, so I don't expect these two to embarrass themselves, but I do think they will lose early.

Of the British players, Jamie Jones is in a similar position. He had a big win over John Higgins at the PTC Finals, and also played at the China Open, losing in the wildcard round. To beat Ricky Walden 10-2 in qualifying is certainly impressive, and with the qualifiers held so close to the main event this year, surely some of that form will still be there. I would be surprised if he got past the 1st round though. David Gilbert is also an outsider here, although he does have Crucible experience. He played Stephen Hendry on his debut, and led 5-1 at one point, playing good stuff. I think the best he has ever played was against Mark Williams at the 2009 Welsh Open, winning 5-1 with mostly one-visit stuff. He is a player who can go on a good scoring streak, so I can't rule out a decent run here, but he is obviously not a realistic contender for the title.

Who else is not? Of the more experienced players, I would rule out the likes of Mark Davis, Joe Perry and Ken Doherty. Davis has found some consistently good form over the last couple of seasons, but other than climbing up the rankings and fighting for a top16 place, he hasn't really done anything noteworthy. Joe Perry was in a similar position a couple of seasons ago, but has since dropped down the rankings and done very little in the major events. Still, he is not to be underestimated, as he is a specialist in the longer format, a former semi-finalist in both the UK and the World Championships. His appearance at the business end of the tournament wouldn't be a big surprise, but winning the title would be a huge shock. As for Doherty, he is also still capable of a good run, as he showed in Australia this season, by reaching the semi-finals. But there is no way you can win the World title being as inconsistent as Doherty is. Even if he plays well, surely he will have a bad session or two, and he doesn't really have the firepower to compensate for it anymore.

Whom else can we rule out? Andrew Higginson most likely. He has become a really respectable opponent for anyone over the last couple of seasons, but his 2007 Welsh Open run still remains by far his best performance on the big stage. I wouldn't expect him to take out any major contenders here. I would also rule out Ryan Day at this point. He is another player who has dropped down the rankings in recent years, but to be honest, I would have ruled him out in his prime as well. He was a terrific scorer, capable of outplaying anyone in an open game on his day, but he always seemed to succumb to the pressure on the big stage. If he didn't win anything when he was playing really well, he is certainly not going to win the WC now when he is playing poorly most of the time. At this point I would also rule out Dominic Dale and Barry Hawkins. While Dale is very capable of beating any player, a run of several wins is perhaps beyond him at this point in time. I think Hawkins is perhaps more suited to the format of the WC, being a more methodical player who relies a lot on his safety game. He is also a good scorer when he is in form, but scoring is an element of his game that comes and goes, and it really needs to be more dependable to last for 17 days. He is a player who could have good runs in his 30s, similar to Joe Perry perhaps, but I can't really see him winning the WC.

And finally, I think we can safely rule out Luca Brecel as well. The problem with players like him is that they often have spells of really good form even before they mature as players. If he is going to be a top player in his 20s, there is no reason why he can't occasionally reach a good standard as a teenager. In his particular case, it also helps that he is not really a one-dimensional player. He is already a decent tactical player, a decent scorer and a pretty good potter. He also showed a lot of bottle in his last two qualifying matches, so I don't expect him to be overwhelmed at the Crucible. And by qualifying for this event, he has already proven himself in "session snooker". It's interesting, a lot of really young players have qualified for the Crucible in recent seasons, despite not doing much in other events. I guess some players just manage to raise their game a bit in a longer match. Having said all of that, the title is obviously too much to ask from Brecel. He has already broken one record by qualifying. He may well become the youngest World champion ever, but it won't be this year.

That leaves twenty players who have at least an outside chance of doing something at the Crucible, although I do have my doubts about some of them.

Starting with Stephen Hendry... I have many reasons to think he is not going to win this event, so where to start? His inconsistency perhaps. How many times has he played a really good match in recent seasons, only to then follow it with a terrible one? Or if we stick to the Crucible, how many times has he looked quite good, only to put in an awful session and lose a match he could have won? Also, his tactical game is quite poor most of the time. It's less of a problem when you pot and score the way Hendry used to, but when you don't, it's impossible to win matches and tournaments by being tactically poor. And another thing, for all of his fighting qualities, I sometimes can't understand why he doesn't play on for snookers, even when the balls are in good positions. It's one thing not wanting to break your rhythm when in front, but in a close match, it can make the difference between winning and losing. His concentration is another weakness, wasting chances by missing easy pots. He seems to cut it out at times, but I can't see him holding it for 17 days. So, why is Hendry in this category at all? Well, he still has a couple of things going for him, his reputation for a start. He has won quite a few matches when his opponents bottled it from a winning position, his win over Gould at the China Open being a good example. He is also vastly experienced, knows how to handle any situation on and off the table. And finally, his runs in 2008 and 2009 are good examples of what can always happen. If he can find the same kind of form, he probably still has the scoring game to get through a couple of rounds.

Liang Wenbo is obviously a longshot as well. He has basically been an "ordinary" top32 player for the last two years, with his 2008-2009 form nowhere to be seen. When he reached the Shanghai Masters final in 2009 and followed it up with a quarter-final at the UK Championship, it was difficult to see him not winning anything in the following couple of seasons. I at least expected him to establish himself as a top player, in the same way Mark Allen did before he finally won his first ranking event. The problem with Liang is not only the lack of progress, it's the inexplicable decline in his early 20s. I still have some hopes for him though. When he was really playing well, he could go on a good scoring run, playing one-visit stuff at times, and he is also well suited to this format, being quite a composed, methodical player. He has looked like doing something at times this season, so I wouldn't rule out a good performance here. I'm not sure what kind of state his tactical game is in at this point in time though. I've always thought his execution of safety shots was actually quite good, but his shot selection leaves a lot to be desired.

Marco Fu is not on many people's list of favourites either, quite understandably. You could hardly find a better example of inconsistency. It's interesting, when he plays well, there is no real weakness in his game. So you would think that kind of solid all-round game would get him through bad patches of form, but everything just seems to fall apart. Personally, I think Fu will probably play crap, but if we assume he is up for it, he could be very dangerous indeed. As I said, he is the complete player. He is excellent in the balls, doesn't play anything stupid, and he has an excellent temperament. He is also a long-format specialist, a former UK finalist and WC semi-finalist.

I think Stuart Bingham probably won't feature at the business end either, but we certainly have to at least consider any of this season's ranking event winners. Playing the way he did in Australia would certainly help. He was excellent there, particularly with his back against the wall in the final. He's had some good scalps on the big stage in the past and generally handles pressure pretty well. He is also a player who scores well enough to put himself in contention, but can he hold it for 17 days? He has been very quiet since his ranking title, not doing anything notable in the major events. It's often like this after players have an unexpected run. I remember Fergal O'Brien's interview after the 2007 Northern Ireland Trophy, where he said he was "back", and we're still waiting for another good performance from him. The same goes for Higginson, Dale, Burnett, etc. I wouldn't be surprised if Bingham's case is the same...

Now that we've got inconsistency out of the way, let's have a look at Matthew Stevens and Martin Gould, two players I suspect are not really mentally strong enough to win the World Championship. Stevens has played alright for most of the season, particularly in the first months of 2012, but he hasn't really challenged for any titles. He always seems to come up against in-form players. Either that, or he plays poorly himself. I would be very surprised if he won the title here. If anyone is a master of throwing matches away, it's Stevens. I think as soon as there is a pressure situation towards the end of a big match, Stevens is second favourite. Still, he used to be a long-format specialist in his prime, with an excellent record at the Crucible. Gould is another player who knows a thing or two about throwing matches away. He has collapsed a number of times on the big stage, his defeat to Robertson at the Crucible in 2010 being the most memorable occasion. He has also lost three PTC finals, once being whitewashed, the other two times losing when close to victory. Even a couple of weeks ago at the China Open, his loss to Hendry was inexcusable. His recent form in general has been poor, losing early in all major events of 2012. Still, there is no doubt he is an excellent potter and scorer when things are going for him, capable of outplaying any player in an open game. The problem is of course, you can't really expect five open games at the WC.

There are two more players I have serious doubts about. Allister Carter was always a decent bet in the last couple of years, but less so this time. His season has been one giant struggle, not showing any of the form that got him in the top8 in the rankings. I'm not sure how his health is at the moment, but 17 days of the Crucible are a big ask in any case. On top of that, he has never been one to raise his game when the pressure is really on, although it's not as bad as it used to be. He reached the quarter-finals at the China Open, so perhaps he can salvage something from this season with a strong finish. If he can play his best, he certainly has the firepower to go far. Speaking of firepower, what a year Stephen Lee has had! I keep expecting his form to drop at some point, but he keeps impressing. His performances over the last couple of months would have been impressive for any player, let alone someone who had dropped out of the top16 and seemed to have his best days behind him. If he plays the way he's been playing recently, I can see why a lot of people would consider him among the immediate contenders for the title. I am not entirely convinced though, because there is a serious danger Lee peaked too early and his form finally goes. Also, his physical fitness has always been a concern. It's no surprise his best performances have been in short matches, mostly the PTC series and the "standard" ranking events. He beat Neil Robertson very convincingly on two occasions recently, but what if a player like that decides it would be a good idea to slow the match down and get into a couple of hours of scraping around? Is Lee likely to come out of a situation like that as the winner? I reckon not.

So, twelve players remain. These are, in my opinion, the more realistic contenders for this year's title.

Shall we start with Ronnie O'Sullivan? A couple of months ago I would have been surprised if O'Sullivan won another World title. It's still unlikely, but he has certainly made a case for himself, mainly with his performance in the German Masters. He was impressive on two levels, with his actual game on the table, as well as mentally. I'm not sure which of the two is more important... It had looked like some of the other top players were starting to play consistently better snooker than him when he was dropping down the rankings. He lost a couple of matches against Trump, and he generally seems to find it hard to compete with the likes of Selby and Robertson. But his win in Germany proved he still has the game to win ranking titles, and he still has the bottle to respond in style to one-visit snooker from his opponent. Another thing Germany proved was that he is still hungry for titles. I actually think he made a good point in his post-match interview, when he said he "nicked" the title and there probably weren't many left. That's not necessarily a bad attitude, if it makes him fight harder to win something before he declines further. His long potting seems to have returned to a decent level, he just needs to cut out the easy misses. In many ways, his decline has been similar to Stephen Hendry's. Parts of his game are probably better than Hendry's were six years ago although, ironically, Hendry was number one in the rankings in 2006. I think O'Sullivan still has an aura about him, and it makes certain players crack whenever he applies a bit of pressure, even some of the top ones. He is probably one of the players whose chances most depend on the draw he gets. While he will be pleased to see his name near Williams' in the draw, he won't be too happy to be in the same quarter as Ebdon and Robertson. If he must play Ebdon, I think he will probably be happy it's in the 1st round, because it's still only a two-session match. With the way Ebdon won the China Open, getting a lot of criticism for slow play, and with that infamous 2005 quarter-final still very much in everyone's memory, there is a lot of expectation about this match. But I think I'm right in saying that O'Sullivan hasn't actually lost to Ebdon since 2005. Personally, I think he will be up for it. As for the rest of the tournament, well, it only really takes one bad session to put you out of contention, and O'Sullivan usually does have one. To hold a high level of concentration for 17 days is a lot to ask of anyone, especially a player for whom this is usually such a struggle. If he is to win the title, he will first need to be ready for a fight, and then bring the kind of form that will see him outplay the other top players as well. Personally, I don't think that will happen. But the guy is still one of the best scorers in the game, so you never know...

Graeme Dott is in many ways the opposite of O'Sullivan. Mental toughness is his greatest strength and he is certainly not likely to have problems with concentration. He is not among the immediate favourites, but surely he deserves at least a mention here, considering he reached three of the last eight finals at the Crucible, winning one of them. When talking about Dott's chances, I think the most relevant part of his career to consider are these last two years. I suppose the 2010 WC was the time he finally got through his problems and got back towards the top of the game. I say towards the top, because he seems to have established himself as a solid top16 player, going through an early round or two of most major tournaments, but not really challenging for titles on a consistent basis. Even before he dropped down the rankings, he was not a particularly prolific winner. He does not have the firepower of some of the other top players, although if he scores the way he did in 2010, he has nothing to be afraid of. His safety game is very solid, and very "natural", although that's not a term I usually like to use. What I mean is, it seems to come pretty easy to him. When I think back to his semi-final match with Selby two years ago, it just seemed like Selby needed a lot of thought to play good safety shots, while Dott played his replies pretty quickly, and very well in most cases. Any more possible weaknesses? Not really, he handles pressure well, he knows how to pace himself, and he has the experience to win this. Perhaps slow play is something that can get to him, considering his very poor record against the likes of Ebdon, and his two Crucible loses to Ian McCulloch. He also lost to Joe Perry in the 1st round a couple of years ago, so it's probably not an ideal draw for him. And ultimately, if a top player plays like Trump did against him last year, it will be very tough for Dott to cope with it.

It will be very interesting to see what Peter Ebdon does in this event. I think winning the China Open at his age was remarkable, especially since he had already dropped down the rankings and showed nothing prior to the event. He produced his trademark methodical, extremely composed game, and played with tremendous concentration and determination all week. That's exactly why he is always such a danger at the Crucible. This is the venue where his greatest attributes are of most use. And if he was having any doubts about his game, they've surely gone now. On the other hand, he has always been someone who plays one or two good tournaments a season, and having just played one, there is a good chance he will go back to his mediocre standard here. The same thing happened when he won the China Open in 2009, he followed it with a 1st round exit at the Crucible. I think it's slightly different this time, because he also had a qualifying match to play in between the events, and winning it 10-0 will only boost his confidence further. I am not sure O'Sullivan is the opponent he wanted to draw in the 1st round though. Yes, he knows he can beat him at the Crucible, but as I said earlier, I don't think he has actually beaten him since 2005. All things considered, you can't really rule out a player who just won a ranking event, beating five solid top16 players on his way, but at the same time, as the winner of the previous event, I don't expect him to do too well here.

Another player who is probably not expected to do too well is Mark Williams. Yes, he reached two ranking finals at the start of the season, but somehow that just seems like ancient history at this point. While he hasn't exactly embarrassed himself in the rest of the season, he hasn't played like a top4 player either. I expected him to at least have a good run or two in the overseas events, considering his excellent record outside of the UK, but that hasn't happened either. Were those two ranking finals still the result of last season's momentum? Or are his current poor performances the result of those two defeats in deciders? I can't say for sure, but it could also just be a case of inconsistency that comes with age. Good start to the season, a drop in form in the middle part, followed by another form peak at the very end? Sounds good, doesn't it? I suppose you never know with Williams. He could go back to the way he played in 2011, and if he does, he will be very hard to stop. At his best, he is a complete player. He scores well, can force unlikely openings with good potting, has a solid safety game, and all the experience in the world. Pressure play could be a slight problem... While he has been a tremendous pressure player over the years, his three recent ranking final defeats in deciders have shown some weakness, although Higgins and Bingham in particular played tremendously well to come back at him. Also, similarly to O'Sullivan, Williams is prone to a bad session or two over a long tournament such as this. He was in control of the match against Higgins last year, or to put it another way, he had a great chance to take control, but he just seemed to struggle to hold it together. His concentration ran out and he started making mistakes. You can't really afford that if you want to win the title. And finally, once again his problem could be Ronnie O'Sullivan. The guy has beaten him every time they've played a major match in the last ten years. Williams either plays well, only for O'Sullivan to play out of his skin and still beat him, or he plays poorly and already looks defeated in the early stages of the match. Before the draw came out, I didn't give Williams much chance. But now that O'Sullivan has drawn an opponent who could take him out, perhaps Williams could find some much-needed inspiration...

Now, let's get all of the older players out of the way and have a look at John Higgins... Not a good season, it has to be said. With all the tournaments we've had, you would have expected Higgins to at least challenge for a title or two at some point. It just seems that all of the hunger that won him three major titles last season has gone out of him. I suppose it's understandable, it's always harder to motivate yourself to stay at the top of the game, than it is to get there. Higgins won the World title in 2007, 2009 and 2011. Unfortunately for him, he has to wait another year for 2013 to come along. I remember the season he had after his 2007 win, struggling with form and not winning anything. He was really determined to do something at the 2008 championship, but he just didn't have any momentum behind him, and he lost to Ryan Day. I can't help feeling this is a very similar situation. Even when he started to show a bit of form in recent months, he came up against the likes of Robert Milkins and Peter Ebdon playing extremely well. If his lack of form is a big reason he is not among the top favourites this year, it's his class that makes him an incredibly dangerous opponent and a contender in any circumstances. He could even win the title playing his B-game, which is, in my opinion, what happened in 2007 and 2011. His safety game is tremendous, as is his shot selection. His scoring is good even at the worst of times, let alone when he finds a bit of form. He is tremendous under pressure, and also with his back against the wall. Even if one has other favourites for the title, I don't think anyone would be surprised if Higgins won this. In my opinion, he has been the best player in the world in recent years. I think that mantle is up for grabs here, especially if someone like Trump, Selby or Robertson wins the World title. But if Higgins wins it, he will hold on to it, and I'm sure he has every intention of doing so.

That only leaves the younger contenders, Mark Allen being one of them. It was a long wait for him to finally win his first ranking title. And having won it, surely he will be very dangerous in the major events for the next couple of years. Even before he won the World Open, it was his performance in the UK final that was very impressive. Judd Trump applied tremendous pressure with one-visit snooker, only for Allen to come back at him with a similar reply, going on a run of one-visit frames and not missing anything in the process. He had ultimately left himself too much to do, but he showed both an incredible fighting spirit, as well as what he can do on the table when things are going for him. And it all finally came together for him at the World Open. At times he had to battle really hard, prevailing over Trump and Selby in deciding frames, other times he was able to administer a couple of good thrashings, particularly in the final against Lee. It was just about as well as you need to play to win major titles, and if Allen can produce that standard at the Crucible, he will be very tough to beat. It's not like he is a specialist for the smaller events either. He has now reached at least the semi-finals of the three biggest events, proving he is a big-occasion player. Also, I don't think there is any player in the game that holds any particular psychological edge over Allen, he knows he can beat anyone. Having said that, some of the other players still have more experience than him at this level. He is also not a brilliant tactician, although he has made some progress in that area recently. Unless you can really play your best for 17 days, you perhaps need a more reliable game to get you through a bad patch or two. Allen is a great fighter, so he can compensate for some of his tactical disadvantage, but it's still a weakness that could prevent him winning the title in 2012. I wouldn't rule him out though.

Then we have two players who are experiencing a title drought at the moment, but are still near the top of the rankings. The first is Shaun Murphy, always a dangerman at the Crucible. He has been one of the most consistent players this season, reaching at least the quarter-finals of every event from the Australian Open at the start of the season, right up to the World Open in the beginning of March. He then lost in the 1st round of the China Open to Lu Ning. The wrong time to start struggling perhaps? His Crucible record is quite solid, with several appearances at the business end. He is usually very tough to beat once he plays himself into a tournament, and with the draw he has here, there is every chance of doing so. He has a solid temperament, very unlikely to do anything silly in the course of the tournament, no matter what situation he finds himself in, or what kind of pressure he is under. His game is solid as well, without any major weaknesses. His scoring is very good, although perhaps too dependent on form, he has the potting ability to force openings, and he has the tactical knowledge to exploit any weakness in lesser tacticians. Having said that, there is certainly room for improvement, thinking back to the World final in 2009, where he was completely outclassed by Higgins. With some of the other contenders such as Robertson and Ding, and obviously Selby, playing the safety game to a very high level these days, Murphy might find it hard to match them. It also doesn't help that he hasn't won a major title for so long. His UK win in 2008 is his most recent big title, the kind you need on your CV to really be considered a WC contender. He has won other titles since, such at the Premier League, the Wuxi Classic, the Brazil Masters or the PTC Finals. A title is a title I suppose, but those don't impress me particularly. I think his best performance this season came in the Masters, where he was the best player for most of the week, but he failed to win the title in the end. These are wasted chances... He still has a few chances to win another World title, but then again, not that many.

Speaking of wasted chances, there is no better time to introduce Stephen Maguire. He too has been waiting for another major title since 2008, and unlike Murphy, he is yet to win a World title. I think he comes to this tournament with a better case than in the last couple of years. He reached two ranking finals in the run-up to the WC and has generally played his best snooker since at least 2008. I think he will see the German Masters as a wasted chance, because he really played tremendous snooker to get through a tricky draw, whitewashing Higgins and Murphy on the way. He applied the pressure with one-visit snooker in the final, looking untouchable in the early stages. On another day, his opponent could have cracked a bit, but he came up against a very determined O'Sullivan who responded brilliantly and put the pressure right back on Maguire. The China Open was another chance, but I think he is probably less disappointed about it, because he wasn't really the outstanding player of the week. In fact, his fightback against Ebdon in the final is to his credit, because he had already seemed to lose the will to fight and couldn't really get any rhythm going. Once Maguire gets in that state, he doesn't usually come out of it, but he did in China. If he can show something similar at the Crucible, he should be tough to beat. He has the firepower to do a lot of damage when things are going for him, so it's just the matter of limiting the damage when they are not. I've always thought that if Maguire is to win the World title, he will probably do so by beating everyone convincingly, and not really get into tense situations. He is alright under pressure, but there are players better than him. Tactically he is alright as well, but his patience sometimes lets him down. And you need a lot of it over 17 days. His main strength is obviously his scoring. Once he finds his rhythm, he is very tough to play against, and there are not many players who walk around the table with the same sort of commanding demeanor as an in-form Maguire. I think a couple of other players have a better chance this year, but it would certainly be foolish to underestimate Maguire.

So, we're down to the last four. These are, in my opinion, the most immediate contenders for this year's title.

Let's start with Ding Junhui... It's funny, I keep underestimating him for some reason. For example, I thought Selby was the stronger player ahead of their quarter-final match last year. Selby was making centuries every other frame, and I figured he would outplay Ding tactically, but Ding really took command of the match. I then had a similar feeling with Trump, he was also scoring ridiculously well, but once again Ding looked good for most of the match. So why is that? I didn't think I would be saying this a couple of years ago, but I think his game is starting to resemble Higgins' more and more with each season. He rarely plays anything flashy these days, his tactical game is on a very high level, and he is one of the best scorers in the game. If you do all of the fundamental things right, there has to be some reward. Just making a handy 40 break where another player would only make 25 can make the difference in matches and tournaments. There is still a lot of inconsistency in his game though. He lost early in quite a few of the tournaments this season, sometimes looking like he couldn't really be bothered. On the other hand, he won the Welsh Open playing textbook snooker, the kind you need to compete at the Crucible. He failed the get past the 2nd round on his first couple of attempts, so playing in the one-table situation was always going to be tricky the first time. I thought he handled it very well though, and now that he's got that extra experience, he has every chance of winning the title. His lack of heart used to be a big weakness in the past. It's still there sometimes, but it's not nearly as dramatic as before. In fact, some of the performances he's produced with his back to the wall recently have been excellent. He also doesn't seem to lose his concentration when the match goes too tactical or even scrappy. His match against Ebdon at the China Open is a good example. Yes, he lost his rhythm and ultimately the match, but he didn't get frustrated, he still played the right shots. He lost that particular scrap, but chances are he will win the next one that comes around. He is in a very tough section of the draw here, but as always, someone has to get through it.

That someone could also be Mark Selby, who finds himself in the same quarter. Unlike some other players, I don't think Selby will be too worried about his consistency. He seems to be a regular presence at the business end of tournaments. His big result of the season was winning the Shanghai Masters, his second ranking title, so he doesn't really have that pressure that comes with a title drought, like in the case of Murphy and Maguire. Perhaps a slight worry could be his performance in the UK Championship and the Masters in the middle part of the season, as you would normally expect Selby to be quite strong there. But looking at it from a different perspective, a slight loss of form in December and January is not necessarily a bad thing, if he can slowly build up his form towards the World Championship that is. I suppose that plan is looking good at the moment. He played quite well to reach the final of the Welsh Open, and was very close to reaching the final of the World Open as well, only losing to an excellent comeback from Mark Allen. He then had to withdraw from the China Open with an injury, which stopped his momentum, but gave him the chance to fully prepare for the WC. Of course I assume that his problems are behind him and are unlikely to cause him any problems here. He is another player who is very solid in every aspect of the game. He is an excellent tactician, a great battler in scrappy situations, excellent under pressure and with his back against the wall, and he is statistically the best scorer in the world. With a game like that, it's no surprise he is at the top of the rankings. He also doesn't have any opponents he consistently loses to. He has won a couple of titles, but one has the feeling it could have been more. I think his problem has sometimes been peaking too early, particularly at the Crucible. If you make ten centuries in the first week, chances are you won't make another ten in the second one, and that's where you need them most. If Selby can build himself into the tournament, without burning himself out too early, he will be very hard to stop.

As will Judd Trump, if he plays his best. Let's start with the obvious problem... He is expected to do well this year. He came to last year's event with a lot of confidence, having just won a ranking event, and not under much pressure to get a result. He was very relaxed and played an open, almost casual game. And he played it very well. He doesn't have the same luxury this year. If he goes out early, it will be a disappointment. I think he has had a pretty good season. A lot was expected of him, and he delivered by winning the UK Championship. He showed a lot of bottle and confidence in his own ability by beating O'Sullivan a couple of times in a "scoring duel". Some of the other top players still can't do that, even in 2012. He also showed on several occasions that his safety game can be very good, at least the execution of shots, if not the selection. His pressure play has also been impressive. He didn't panic when Allen was coming back at him in the UK final. He just waited for his chance and took it. He was also very good in the China Open final last season, as well as his WC semi-final against Ding. As for the World final, well, I think it's fair to say it wasn't pressure that got to him, but rather a lack of experience. If he finds himself in the same situation again, with that tricky blue to be played, will he play the right shot this time? He's got a lot of criticism for his shot selection this season, so it's hard to say, but I reckon he won't make the same mistakes twice. Of course to find himself in that situation, he would need to be in similar form, because you just can't go for as many shots as he does if your form is not good enough to get a high percentage. He was at his best in December, then alright for most of 2012. Is it time for his best to come around again? Interestingly, some of the players he beat on his way to the UK title managed to get their revenge in the following months, and he faces another one in the 1st round here, Dominic Dale. It may just be a coincidence, because the likes of Allen, Maguire, O'Sullivan and Robertson are great players, and were always capable of beating him, but it may also be a worrying sign that he failed to exploit a possible psychological edge on four separate occasions. Looking forward to seeing how it goes.

And finally, Neil Robertson, the Masters champion. In some way, he is the opposite of Trump. He was the defending champion last year, on the back of a decent but not a great season, and facing the trickiest possible opponent in the 1st round. He was really up against it. There is nowhere near the same level of pressure on him this year. Like the other three of my main contenders this year, he has already won a title this season, a major one in his case, so he doesn't really have a point to prove here. Not as much as someone like Maguire anyway. Robertson is another player with a complete game these days. He is still an excellent potter, although he doesn't rely on that part of his game as much anymore. He certainly doesn't play as many flashy shots. He is not the most fluent scorer, but like Mark Williams, he makes a lot of handy breaks at the right times. He has made great progress in his tactical play in the last couple of years. I think his refusal to be rushed has made him a much tougher opponent for a lot of players. He generally takes his time, particularly when faced with a tricky shot, and he won't play it until he is sure about it. A lot of the time his matches develop into a scrap as a result, but more often than not it's to his advantage, because he rarely loses concentration and never seems to get tired. You need a lot of stamina to compete over 17 days. Robertson has it, both physical and mental. He sometimes needs a bit of time to play himself into a tournament, so the best chance to take him out is in the early rounds. Looking at his draw here, it's tough to see that happening. And once Neil Robertson's name is in the quarter-finals, he doesn't find himself as second favourite too often. He also has that rare ability to raise his game under extreme pressure, and there is no one I would trust to play a key shot ahead of an in-form Robertson. I would like to say he is great with his back against the wall, but to be honest, it's tough to say. The only time he came from behind in a big match was against Gould two years ago. Every other time he took command of big matches early. He also seems to be able to turn rivalries in his favour. He used to struggle against Maguire for a while before turning it around, he lost twice to Trump before beating him in the Masters, and he had a poor record against Murphy but still beat him convincingly in the Masters final. Possible weaknesses? I have to think quite hard to find some, but I suppose his occasional lack of professionalism could be one of them. He has been known to sometimes come to a match unprepared. He is also not exactly a model of consistency. But assuming he is up for this event, he surely has to be one of the favourites.


So there we are, I told you I had some opinions. I did a similar post for the last three championships, always including the eventual winner in the last group. This time only one of my big four is a previous winner, so I think there is a pretty good chance there will be a new name on the trophy this year.

In any case, I am going to enjoy it tremendously.

Did you have to keep it so brief??

[ADR147]

Did you have to keep it so brief??

lol yes i read it all - but i would not agree with a lot of it. pretty sure the champion will not come from his big 4

[plantspotter]

Is there a thread where we can post our predictions, like last year? I predict Liang Wembo will create a huge upset by knocking out the defending champion 10-7.:snooker:

[checkSide]

lol yes i read it all - but i would not agree with a lot of it. pretty sure the champion will not come from his big 4

My big 4 are O'Sullivan, Higgins, Williams and Murphy.

[ADR147]

My big 4 are O'Sullivan, Higgins, Williams and Murphy.

that would be closer to mine!

[paul180]

personally would like to see doherty have a good run but think he,ll go out 1st round to robertson,hendry playing quite well at mo but he,s got bingham 1st round and even if he comes through that he,d have higgins next if he overcomes wenbo,which incidentally i,ll be there for 1st session of that match so i,m hoping hendry and higgins do come through there 1st round games,but my prediction to win it would be ronnie.