Is it time for a qualifier to win the worlds?

[bricktip]

Seems like a lot of seeds have dropped and the new system is breeding hungry qualifiers. What do you think?

[Odrl]

It's not my preference to see so many qualifiers go through, although I have nothing against anyone in particular. The problem is I don't really see it as a chance for a qualifier to win. It just seems that Carter and Trump are playing for a semi-final place now, while Robertson, O'Sullivan and possibly Williams will decide the finalist between them. I can't see any one of them losing even against Stevens, let alone one of the three qualifiers from the bottom quarter.

Thinking about why this is happening... Obviously having the qualifiers so close to the main event has helped the qualifiers. The in-form players always go through, but this time they've been able to hold on to their form, while the seeds can't really play themselves into the tournament until the 1st round is done with.

Also, the second part of the season had a pretty healthy number of tournaments, with a lot of flying between China and Europe, and it's probably affected the top16 more, because they played in every event.

And finally, a large part of it may just be a coincidence. It could well have been Robertson-Perry and Dott-Doherty in the 1st round for example, but sometimes you just get a draw that maximizes the qualifiers' chances. Can't be helped.

[crocodile]

Seems like a lot of seeds have dropped and the new system is breeding hungry qualifiers. What do you think?

I think it's very unlikely that a qualifier will go all the way, but snooker, like every sport, needs a regular injection of new blood, otherwise it just gets boring seeing the same old names in the later stages of the tournament. Only a personal opinion of course, but I was not displeased to see the likes of Selby, Murphy, Allen and Ding make their exit at an early stage. And Higgins was within a whisker of being kicked out too.
But a player like, for example, Higginson, who I thought played some excellent snooker against Lee, could certainly make considerable progress. It's all very unpredictable.

[montoya10]

It's not my preference to see so many qualifiers go through, although I have nothing against anyone in particular. The problem is I don't really see it as a chance for a qualifier to win. It just seems that Carter and Trump are playing for a semi-final place now, while Robertson, O'Sullivan and possibly Williams will decide the finalist between them. I can't see any one of them losing even against Stevens, let alone one of the three qualifiers from the bottom quarter.

Thinking about why this is happening... Obviously having the qualifiers so close to the main event has helped the qualifiers. The in-form players always go through, but this time they've been able to hold on to their form, while the seeds can't really play themselves into the tournament until the 1st round is done with.

Also, the second part of the season had a pretty healthy number of tournaments, with a lot of flying between China and Europe, and it's probably affected the top16 more, because they played in every event.

And finally, a large part of it may just be a coincidence. It could well have been Robertson-Perry and Dott-Doherty in the 1st round for example, but sometimes you just get a draw that maximizes the qualifiers' chances. Can't be helped.

Yes, it looks like it's a three man race in the bottom for the final spot, and top half of the draw is crowded with seeded players blocking the path also.
It's very difficult for a qualifier to come up with something special looking at the draw.
Matthew Stevens is an outsider and he may do something. But, then again, Stevens himself is a seeded player, not a qualifier.

There isn't someone in the qualifiers playing consistently good snooker. Hendry and Higginson are all like on and off from time to time. Day's A game is insanely high, but his drop off is too sharp, can't really hold his own when not playing at the top of his game. Perry will have trouble to contain an in-form Maguire. Cao and Jones are too inexperienced to do it. Hawkins is a solid all-around player, but he may come up short in terms of firepower. Gilbert is on his way out, unless he pulls out something magical in the third session against Robertson.

All these point out to a rather unsurprising overall winner for the title. My guess is it's either to come from the bottom half of the draw (O'Sullivan, Williams, Robertson) or to be Maguire.
Not to mention I don't own a pretty record in making guesses, though!

[FOXMULDER]

As it stands Hendry has the best chance of all the qualifiers, although it's difficult to imagine him as a "qualifier" - even though he is!

Otherwise, Hawkins has an outside chance. He was impressive against Selby. But like you say, he probably doesn't score heavily enough to challenge one of the big guns over a long match.

[sunny3909]

Is it time for a qualifier to win the worlds?

All I can say its good for the sport.

[bricktip]

As it stands Hendry has the best chance of all the qualifiers, although it's difficult to imagine him as a "qualifier" - even though he is!

Yeah, it's a bit like saying Ronnie is world number 15 or whatever he is now.

[sunny3909]

Is it time for a qualifier to win the worlds?

Can't take anything for granted these qualifiers have come through a tough field and have beaten top16 seeds in the 1st round long format not best of 5s or 7s.

[trains]

It just seems that Carter and Trump are playing for a semi-final place

Why would you think Carter is a favourite over Jamie Jones or arguably to a lesser extent Higginson? Carter's first round match against M Davis? <rolls eyes>

[Odrl]

Why would you think Carter is a favourite over Jamie Jones or arguably to a lesser extent Higginson? Carter's first round match against M Davis? <rolls eyes>

Yes, exactly. His 1st round performance was one of the more impressive in the tournament so far. He looked to be somewhere near to his best again. I think it had already started at the China Open where he reached a quarter-final, his first in a while.

Somehow it's tough to see him losing to one of the players who had never played a three-session match before this event. Especially since Carter has a pretty good record at the Crucible in the last five years, reaching a final, a SF, a QF, and two last16s.

[trains]

Yes, exactly. His 1st round performance was one of the more impressive in the tournament so far. He looked to be somewhere near to his best again. I think it had already started at the China Open where he reached a quarter-final, his first in a while.

Somehow it's tough to see him losing to one of the players who had never played a three-session match before this event. Especially since Carter has a pretty good record at the Crucible in the last five years, reaching a final, a SF, a QF, and two last16s.

Can you remember a poorer first round performance than Davis's? and thats no disrespect to Davis who was apparently ill,nevermind ;-)

[breakman16]

Yes, exactly. His 1st round performance was one of the more impressive in the tournament so far. He looked to be somewhere near to his best again. I think it had already started at the China Open where he reached a quarter-final, his first in a while.

Somehow it's tough to see him losing to one of the players who had never played a three-session match before this event. Especially since Carter has a pretty good record at the Crucible in the last five years, reaching a final, a SF, a QF, and two last16s.

Id be surprised too if Carter lost, a 3 session match is a lot different to even a best of 11 frame match, remains to be seen if Jones or Higginson have what is required mentally over such a long match to perform in each individual session, then to win if it gets close, gotta fancy Carter as well!

[montoya10]

Can you remember a poorer first round performance than Davis's? and thats no disrespect to Davis who was apparently ill,nevermind ;-)

Dott?

Anyway, even so, Carter has played well in his part and has to be the favorite to reach the quarter-finals. His long potting especially looked in shape and there are few players that looked sharp from distance.
Not that this makes him an immediate contender, but still, he's a lot more stable than he was in the last couple of seasons due to the illness.

[breakman16]

Dott?

Dott was so bad that if you'd never seen him play before and heard he was a former world champ, 3 finals in 7 years you'd think "well he must be pretty good", then to play like that he almost damaged his reputation he was incredibly poor, I cant remember anyone playing that bad for several years!!