Who will win the UK Championship?

[jw147]

my head says ronnie, my heart says jimmy. so im gonna go with the heart, jimmy it is. come on.

[147 Club]

hopefully jimmy

[gazza147]

Mark Williams

[Odrl]

Agree with most of your assesments there although I do feel you give the World open and PTC less credit than they deserve as indicators of form.

I agree thet are a competely different style of snooker than the UK or World's and if you do or do not like the formats that is fair enough.

The fact remains though that the World Open saw the better players in generl progress, the PTC as well has shown few relatives shocks in ratio to number of matches apart from the odd big player that didn't give a s#%&.

If you read back through your assessment you look at Mark Davis as a threat and in great form. This is true and it is true mostly due to the PTCs. They are also the core reason why higgins suddenly looks like he has a chance and players like Ebdon and Stevens are rejuvenated.

The short formats may not be your or others' cup of tea and you are free to not watch them. But from a competion point of view, the last few months have certainly not been a drought and the regular snooker events (where the better players are still playing up to 20 odd frames in a day if they go far into the tournament.) are the reasons why we have dangermen qualifiers and players in form and getting talked about that would not have happened if this was merely the 3rd tournament of the year.


I know I have rabbited on a bit now and if it sounds like a negative reaction to your post I apologise as like I said, I do think it is a good assesment of the UK and very well argued. I just feel that the PTCs and World Open deserve more respect when discussing player form and chances, even if you personally do not care for the events as a spectator.

No need to apologize, I welcome your "criticism".

First let me say that I had absolutely no intentions of criticizing neither the World Open nor the PTC series in my post. We've had long and exhausting discussions about the World Open on this forum, and I'm sure most people know where I stand. I have no wish to bring it up here though, even if my opinions about it are somehow evident even in unrelated posts.

As for the PTC series, I don't wish to criticize that either, and I don't think I ever did in the past. I'm actually not opposed to it. But caring or not caring about it as a spectator doesn't come into it, because I am in fact not a spectator of it. Watching snooker on TV is a great passion of mine. I watch every match I can, and I'm lucky that I'm able to watch a large percentage of everything that's televised. I don't imagine it will ever get boring, as no two matches are ever the same. You can look at a match result, but unless you saw it, you have little idea of what it was like. Even if you know what breaks were made, the balls never lie the same, so the value of seeing it compared to just reading about it is tremendous. And on top of that, the only way to really know the players' demeanor is to see it for yourself.

I think the comparison I made a couple of months ago was with alpine skiing, where you have competitors taking the same line down the same hill, and finishing within parts of a second of each other. If you only read the results afterwards, the picture of the event that you can paint in your head would be pretty accurate. But in snooker, you know very little. There was supposedly a great match between Stephen Lee and Mark Allen in last year's tournament. We've read the players' quotes, read about the breaks that were made, perhaps even read the report. But I'm sure it brought people very little pleasure, and the match will most likely not be remembered as part of snooker's history.

I haven't commented much on the PTC events, not because of any kind of disapproval towards them, but because there was not much to say. If people find pleasure in watching numbers on their screens, or sometimes even having to look for results hours after matches have finished, I certainly don't begrudge them that. But it sure as hell doesn't satisfy my craving for snooker. For me, there has indeed been a "snooker drought" for most of the last three months, and I won't have people telling me I should be satisfied with the amount of snooker I was able to read about.


Now, more on topic, have I underestimated these events as form indicators? I suppose time will tell. I really don't think the World Open is particularly relevant. What can we really take from it? I suppose the fact that Robertson's game holds up against O'Sullivan in a big match, but they can't meet before the final anyway. Ebdon's run to the SF? Well, if a qualifier reaches that stage of a "normal" seeded event, that usually means he's beaten two or three top16 players, but Ebdon didn't play a single one before losing to O'Sullivan. In fact, he looked anything but impressive for most of the tournament.

Selby's loss in the last64 stage? Well, losing 3-2 against a very strong Hawkins doesn't exactly convince me he is out of contention here. Nor does Dott's early exit against Robertson. And on top of that, this was three months ago, as was the Shanghai Masters, so as form indicators go, this is a pretty distant one.

But the two players I do somewhat judge by their performances in those two tournaments are Gould and Cope. It was interesting to see how Gould would react after throwing away such a great chance at the WC, and indeed how Cope would react after Carter administered such a convincing thrashing. But it looks like both have come back strongly.

The PTCs are a better indicator in my opinion, and I did mention how well (or not so well in certain cases) certain players played in them. But when I predict how parts of the draw will play out, it is strictly my opinion. I am not just trying to state what the bookies think, or what the prevailing opinion among snooker fans is. And when I go against it, it's usually because of something I've seen during previous matches. Having not seen the actual play in the PTC, I don't really have any insight. Perhaps that's why my prediction doesn't really go against the majority opinion anywhere.

And another thing... Players that play really poorly or indeed really well just prior to the tournament are not usually the ones I predict to do well. If someone had a long run of surprisingly good results, I would think he has already reached his form peak, and should be on his way down. As I said, Murphy's win in the Premier League last year may have been a case of peaking too early for the UK. The players that show very little form prior to the event are also not likely to be contenders, as it's hard to just build great form up from nothing, unless you are a very natural player like O'Sullivan or Ding for example. It's the players in between that I usually find the most dangerous.

But as you say, the UK Championship is a different ball game. It takes a different mental approach, and suits a different type of player. Many players that qualified for the PTC finals failed to qualify for the UK. As for the ones that did, I'm certainly not convinced that Ford is favourite over Allen, or White over Hendry for example.

[wayner147]

Does anyone else besides me thing hendry got a good draw to make a run to the final? i have looked at it and yes i know they are all great players on his side, but i think its not has hard as the top half? whats everyone else thing, if he plays well i think he might have a chance to run to the final.

[ore]

£10 is a lot of money in these tough times!

i got 11/1 on betfair. will place more bets closer to the time but i expect JH to come into about 7/1 in the next day or so.

What's your dark horse this year?

Or Gould is still too painfull to remember?

[iksotam]

I'd go for Mark Selby or Shaun Murphy.

[Gargon]

I slightly favour Mark Williams or John Higgins to win this event, but thetr is atleast 6 players that i could see in the finals definately.

Posted a first round preview on my site MaximumSnooker.com

[jaybee136]

Outsider for me, Ryan Day at about 66/1.

[steedee]

i never back Ronnie in any tournament, too unpredictable, but the form he's shown in the premier league coupled with the longer format and previous success in the UK, i actually can't see past him for once.

[Odrl]

Possible QF lineup:

Ding Junhui v. Ronnie O'Sullivan
Mark Selby v. John Higgins
Allister Carter v. Mark Williams
Shaun Murphy v. Neil Robertson

Well, four out of eight is not too bad I suppose.

One could say the QF lineup is a bit unexpected. There are three players without a ranking title to their name, which I think is quite a big number for such an important tournament. But there are also five big names left. Who is most likely to win it from here?

Mark Joyce is obviously the biggest surprise here. His appearances in the TV stages are quite rare as it is, but this is completely new territory for him. From what I've seen of him, he seems to be playing pretty well. It would probably be the biggest shock in snooker history if he were to win this event, but having already exceeded the expectations so much, he is not under any pressure to go further. With Williams possibly not at the top of his game, Joyce might not be done yet, but I wouldn't expect him to still be left standing come Sunday.

Stuart Bingham is another surprising quarter-finalist, although he is certainly more established. We didn't see his victory against Fu, but a 9-2 scoreline looks very impressive. He played well against O'Sullivan, certainly scoring quite adequately, and it looks like that victory may have given him the confidence to further raise his game. But it's going to get even tougher now, and without much experience at the business end of tournaments, he remains an outsider.

Mark Allen is yet to win a ranking title, but he looks like a more realistic title contender to me. It's hard to judge how well he is playing, obviously because we haven't seen him on a TV table yet. Could this be his week? I think he has responded to pressure situations pretty well in the past, and his decider victory against Ding should certainly give him even more confidence in close matches. It's probably the lack of experience that has held him back in the past, maybe playing one attacking shot too many at times. We'll see if he has the game to beat the top players this week.

It's by no means a surprise to see Mark Williams in the quarter-finals, especially with the draw he had here. But it was surprising to see him struggle for most of his match against Hendry. The tricky shots he is famous for weren't going in. I think he will need that part of his game against someone like Robertson for example. He did play better towards the end, so I guess he can build on that. It wouldn't be the first time to see him follow a mediocre match with a good one. He's been doing quite well in tournaments in the last 15 months or so, so his "rustiness" is a thing of the past. It remains to be seen how well he can play this week, but I certainly expect him to play better than he did against Hendry from now on.

It's not surprising to see Shaun Murphy here either. He could have been out though, as Day had a fairly easy chance to win the decider. But as long as Murphy is still in the tournament, he is pretty much always a strong contender. He is a very good tournament player, in terms of saving his best for when it really matters. His game against Robertson should be a tough one, but Murphy gets very competitive when there is a high obstacle in front of him, so I expect him to be up for it. And if he should win it, it would be a big confidence booster for the last two matches.

I have a feeling Stephen Maguire could be the man to beat this week. He is one of the players we haven't seen this week yet, so it's tough to speculate, but beating Selby almost always means you're playing well. I've been waiting for Maguire's return to form for some time now, but it's only been a good match here and there. Maybe he can sustain it this week though. He got the better of John Higgins two years ago, so he knows he can do it. He also has good records against the other top players still left in the tournament. His temperament can obviously be a weakness, but when he gets into that determined mood, I think he is as good as anyone.

What can you say about John Higgins? There were questions about how well he would be able to play on his return, and here he is again, in the quarter-finals. Those final two frames against Dott were vintage Higgins, playing his best with his back against the wall. Having said that, Dott had chances to put him out. Technically speaking, Higgins' game seems in top shape again, and he seems to be in a good mental state. When he gets himself into the position of tournament favourite, he usually sees it through. There are several players capable of beating him though, not least his next opponent.

That leaves Neil Robertson. There are certainly a lot of things in his favour. He is the world's top player at the moment, has a great record in the later stages of tournaments, and he has also shown some great snooker this week already. On the other hand, he hasn't been tested much so far. And when Andrew Higginson did apply some pressure, he won quite a few frames in a row against him. Still, Robertson took his chance when he needed to. He has a habit of only playing as well as he needs to in certain matches, which can leave him fresh for the later stages, but he certainly needs full concentration against the likes of Murphy. I certainly don't think he is unbeatable, but as is often the case recently, I have a good feeling about him.


It's been an interesting championship so far, with some great matches, and a couple of mediocre ones as well. I wish for more of the same (or better) for the rest of the week.

[Freddie Ng]

Well said that Odrl.. I always like to read your post. at the moment Higgins and Williams seems to have a good chance of winning :snooker:

[ore]

Well said that Odrl.. I always like to read your post. at the moment Higgins and Williams seems to have a good chance of winning :snooker:

Williams with how he played today?

[Freddie Ng]

Nah.. hopefully he will played better in next round than against Hendry..

[Looki]

Williams with how he played today?

Patience, mate, it can only get better for Mark.

As I said earlier in this thread I'm rooting Mark to win but his form is not the same as it was few months ago. Hopefully he can find another gear or four... If he gets through to semis he's playing either Robertson or Murphy and it's going to be tough if he's struggling as both of them are in good shape. Although, Murphy has been quite inconsistent this season but it makes him interesting to follow, never know what he's going to come up with.

Maguire is also building on his good record in UK. If he beats Higgins he's definitely a contender. Higgins on the other hand is playing a good tournament here, UK hasn't exactly been his tournament in recent years. So it's getting interesting.