The uk championship starts on saturday!!!

[SnookerFan]

I'm excited!!!

[doorag]

Anyone got todays order of play?

[Odrl]

I'm excited as well, finally some major ranking snooker on TV again. It's a shame that the long format is gone, because it made this event one of the highlights of the calendar. Still, it should be a good week.

I suppose the best-of-11 format will benefit some players more than others. There are a couple of players who are strong over two sessions, but I suppose this format doesn't punish a slow start too badly either. Let's see what the draw looks like...

Quarter 1:

John Higgins v. Rory McLeod
Stephen Maguire v. Stephen Hendry
Ronnie O'Sullivan v. Steve Davis
Judd Trump v. Dominic Dale

A slightly tricky start for John Higgins, as he faces a very slow and methodical player in Rory McLeod, which is not something he usually enjoys. Their match at the WC was very scrappy for the most part, neither player really producing a sustained period of good play. But John Higgins obviously has the class to pull away, so I expect him to come through pretty comfortably. Stephen Maguire could be a dangerman here. He is in a similar position as last year, when he played Selby in the 2nd round. I'm sure not many top8 players would like to draw Maguire from the 9-16 group at this point, because he still has the firepower to beat anyone on his day. He did beat Selby last year, and also pushed Higgins all the way in the QF. I have a feeling we could see something similar here. As for Stephen Hendry? Well, he hasn't done anything significant in the UK for quite a while now, and his best form usually comes after the new year these days. Still, as the qualifier here, I'm sure he will be up for it. I didn't see his PTC match against Higgins last week, but he must have played ok, so we can't rule him out here, especially in one-session matches. But obviously, Higgins is the favourite to come through.

There are two strong contenders for the other QF spot. O'Sullivan once again comes to this event as the Premier League champion, and also with some good PTC results, but no impressive results in the major events for quite a while now. When the event was last held in York, in 2006, he had the infamous breakdown against Hendry, so I wonder if that will bring back any unpleasant memories for him. Steve Davis has a very poor record against O'Sullivan in recent years, and I don't really see Dale stopping him either, so it's really between him and Trump. Their match in Antwerp was superb, probably the best short match I've ever seen. It would be great to have them play a two-session match here, but even a best-of-11 should be quite different. Obviously it's also a much greater occasion, so we might see less fireworks and more care put into shot selection. It's tough to call, but if I had to choose, I would make O'Sullivan a very slight favourite.

Quarter 2:

Ding Junhui v. Mark Davis
Matthew Stevens v. Marcus Campbell
Graeme Dott v. Matthew Selt
Neil Robertson v. Tom Ford

The other three quarters look slightly weaker at first glance, but here we have two very big names, probably two of the immediate favourites for the title. Starting with Ding Junhui, a player who has won this event two times, and it will be interesting to see how well he can do in the new format. He has had a very disappointing season so far, two 1st round exits in the two major rankings events. Still, that was two months ago, so we can't really conclude anything from the way the players played in September here. Mark Davis is probably one of the stronger qualifiers, well capable of catching the top players off guard, but I suspect Ding will have too much for him. Looking past the 1st round, he could then play Matthew Stevens, one of his favourite opponents, who has been on the wrong end of a couple of thrashings in the past. I think Ding is a very strong favourite in this part of the draw.

Neil Robertson will probably not have it as easy, looking at his possible opponents. Tom Ford is a very heavy scorer, capable of exploiting a potential "sleepy" start from Robertson. Robertson rarely seems to play his best in the 1st round, he will just have to make sure he gets going as soon as possible. He has developed quite a rivalry with Dott in the last two years or so, as the two always seem to be drawn against each other in the early rounds. It's gone Robertson's way more often than not, but I certainly wouldn't underestimate Dott. He has probably been one of the most consistent top16 players recently. It's not been enough to win him titles, but he's had a lot of decent runs in ranking events. Selt shouldn't be completely ruled out either, with a QF appearance in Australia already this season, and wins over Higgins and Hendry along the way. But looking at Robertson again, I think he has been one of the most impressive players this season. He didn't have a great run in Australia, but he went out in a high-quality match against Dale, with a performance which would have got him through against most opponents. He has a also produced his best-ever run in China, with a SF appearance in Shanghai, and he has won two PTC events with very impressive snooker. I think the best-of-11 format will be right up his alley here, and I expect a strong performance.

Quarter 3:

Mark Williams v. Joe Jogia
Stephen Lee v. Ricky Walden
Martin Gould v. Peter Lines
Shaun Murphy v. Li Yan

The third quarter is similar to the second in some ways, with two strong contenders scheduled to meet in the QF. The first is Mark Williams, the runner-up in both major tournaments this season, and also the UK runner-up last year. The way he lost these three finals certainly won't make him happy, but the fact he has featured in so many finals in the last two seasons puts him alongside Higgins and Selby as a top3 player at this point in time. He always seems to ease through the first couple of rounds, seemingly playing very casually. If he comes to this event in that kind of "mode", I think he is the man to beat here. But he will have a strong obstacle in the 2nd round. The match between Lee and Walden should be great in its own right, probably one of the most exciting prospects of the 1st round. I think they are both capable of causing problems for Williams. Lee beat him at the China Open last season, in an extremely high-quality match, but a slightly longer match here should favour Williams. Walden can also be a very tricky player to play against, as you never know when he will produce his best snooker, and he has a very weird way of changing his pace and rhythm at the table, ranging from very slow to very fast in a single match. But I don't think Williams would struggle too badly against that, so I expect him to go through.

Murphy is the other big name here, with a couple of tricky players to beat if he is to reach the QF. Li Yan has had a very impressive season so far, but it's all been away from the TV cameras, so it will be very interesting to see how he plays on the big stage here. I honestly don't have any idea what his chances are against Murphy, but I would like to think it's going to be a good match. Martin Gould should be the big threat to Murphy here. You can find all kinds of faults in his game, from poor shot selection, to an inadequate safety game, and ultimately to cracking under pressure, but there is no doubt he is a very dangerous player. He can go into crazy potting mode for a period of three or four frames, and it's very tough to play against. Having said that, Murphy is exactly the kind of player who can exploit any weakness in his opponent's game, especially as one-dimensional one as Gould's. Peter Lines? Well, he did knock Mark Williams out in 2009, reaching the QF on that occasion, but I don't really see him getting through this part of the draw. Looking at Murphy again... I have always considered him a very solid, consistent player, someone who would not be out of his depth in any situation against any opponent, but if he wants to remain this high-profile player, it's about time he wins another major title. He won in Brazil this season, he won the Wuxi Classic at the start of last season, he won a couple of the PTCs, the best-of-7 PTC finals, the Premier League... but as far as major titles are concerned, it's been a three-year drought for him. Can it end this week?

Quarter 4:

Allister Carter v. Robert Milkins
Mark Allen v. Adrian Gunnell
Stuart Bingham v. Marco Fu
Mark Selby v. Ryan Day

And for a change, only one really big name in the fourth quarter. On paper, the first QF spot should be decided between Carter and Allen, both former quarter-finalists in this event. Carter has had a very poor start to the season, two 1st round exits in the two biggest events. By his own admission, he didn't really enjoy the traveling. I would expect him to play better now that the circuit has returned to the UK. Milkins could be a tricky opening match, a quick and heavy scorer, but a player Carter really should beat if he wants to have a good run here. Allen's season has been better than Carter's, but no fireworks yet. Tough one to call, but I have a feeling Allen might prevail. Whoever comes through will have most of their work still ahead of them though.

And finally, four possible contenders for the final QF spot, with one of the immediate favourites among them. Mark Selby has been an extremely consistent player over the last two seasons, getting to the business end of most tournaments. It always takes a very good player to stop him, but there are three very good players here. First there is Ryan Day, not long ago a top8 player, and now a very dangerous qualifier. He lost to Mark Allen in the last32 stage of both major events this season, and it certainly doesn't get any easier here. But he has beaten Mark Selby before, their match at the 2008 Grand Prix was a very memorable one. Then we have Stuart Bingham, the Australian Open champion and last year's quarter-finalist. He is now officially a top16 player, and he has been playing like a top16 player for some time. He has shown he can handle the pressure at this level, and his game has never really been in doubt. That being said, he has a very tricky opener himself, perhaps the trickiest possible. Of all the qualifiers, Marco Fu is probably capable of producing the best snooker on his day, and would in fact be favourite for this match if he was in form. But more often than not, he is not in form. He played tremendous stuff to reach the Masters final last season, which of course contributed nothing towards his ranking, but it has shown he is still a dangerman. Of course he is also a former finalist here, and 2008 is not exactly ancient history. But all things considered, I expect Selby to get through. He has the curse of being the winner of the previous major event, so maybe he will falter somewhere along the way, but there is no reason why he shouldn't reach the QF stage.

Possible QF lineup:

John Higgins v. Ronnie O'Sullivan
Ding Junhui v. Neil Robertson
Mark Williams v. Shaun Murphy
Mark Allen v. Mark Selby


So there, I think that's more than enough over-analysis for now. In fact, the tournament has just started. I hope everyone has as good a snooker week as me.

[stampen]

If I ever EVER have to watch Rory McLeod OR Peter Ebdon OR Nigel Bond play snooker again, it will be a million years too soon.

/A

[SnookerFan]

If I ever EVER have to watch Rory McLeod OR Peter Ebdon OR Nigel Bond play snooker again, it will be a million years too soon.

/A

Didn't Ebdon play McLeod at this seasons Australian Open?

[stampen]

Didn't Ebdon play McLeod at this seasons Australian Open?

Having to watch that must be regarded as cruel and unusual punishment.

/A