Who will win the 2011 World Championships?

[cueman]

Someone from the top half has certainly got the better chance but then again they will have all looked at the draw and possibly the nerves will get the better of them in the early rounds. Selby and Ding are the obvious choices, I've even predicted a Ding v Murphy final but having seen Ding struggle against Selby in a relatively short best of 11, I somehow doubt he has the staying power over the longer sessions at the crucible.

That leaves one of Selby, Robertson and you have to include Trump now as his confidence is gonna be sky high, even though he played well at China I still think there is another 10% more to his top level game! One player completely overlooked though is Ali Carter, if he can get his game on top form he is also a big shout in the top half, already been to one crucible final, maybe the darkest of dark horses this year.

Bottom half its got to be one of Higgins, O'Sullvan, Murphy and Williams for me. I cannot see any other player making the semi's in that half of the draw. Murphy I think should be seen as favourite because his form is coming good at the right time, Williams and Higgins might just be running out of steam now but Ronnie is fresh. Whoever wins the Ronnie v Murphy match is a strong favourite for the final for me.
I'm not gonna predict a winner because I tend to jinx people when I do that, so long as we have a fortnight to remember that is all I ask. Whoever wins it is gonna deserve it because there are so many candidates and players in good form, realistically any of 10 players have a chance, I just hope that come the final the players still have enough left in the tank because we don't want another disappointing final.

[montoya10]

Your an idiot !

Best logical call ever on TSF!

MJW still the favourite to win it, but Higgins will never let it be the easy way..

[jrc750]

Well he always puts down Ronnie at every opportunity and normally for no good reason. Similarly with Selby as it happens

[João]

Ronnie can't win a match (hell, he can't pot 2 balls in a row in most frames) and people are voting for him to be World Champion. I can't help but laugh my ass off at you guys.

[Elaine]

I don't always agree with what Joao says on here, but now it's just a matter of a pure common sense
Ronnie hasn't got a match won since the World Open he is as rusty as hell now, hasn't got any match sharpness at all
do you all really think he can pull a great performance out of a hat like a wizard?

[coomsey76]

Maybe you just never know what kind of mood he's going to be in!!

But I reckon its Ding all the way.......

[cueman]

Ronnie can't win a match (hell, he can't pot 2 balls in a row in most frames) and people are voting for him to be World Champion. I can't help but laugh my ass off at you guys.

The saying form is temporary and class is permanant was made for situations just like this.

A few years ago Mark Williams was outside the top 32 provisionally and seriously close to packing up the game, now look at him, one of the favourites. Even John Higgins was going through a bad patch a few years back and got back to world number one, hadn't won a world title since his first and then won two in three years. Ronnie could well have had a few personal problems but there is nothing like the WC to get your focus back. If he hits a bit of form against Dale he'll enjoy the challenge of Murphy, then Higgins and then possibly Williams, these are the matches he thrives upon so writing him off is just as silly IMO.

[gavpowell]

Except he hasn't beaten Higgins in a ranking event for some years now - Higgibns, like Hendry, plays the kind of matchplay snooker that can really pin Ronnie back even if he is on song.

[Odrl]

Except he hasn't beaten Higgins in a ranking event for some years now - Higgibns, like Hendry, plays the kind of matchplay snooker that can really pin Ronnie back even if he is on song.

O'Sullivan beat Higgins 6-1 in the semi-finals of the 2009 Shanghai Masters, on the way to his last ranking title.

But yeah, you have to go back to something like 2003 for his second most recent victory over Higgins. He did beat him in the 2005 Masters final though.

[Odrl]

Who will win the 2011 World Championship? With only a couple of days until the tournament starts, it's time to look for the answer...

There are quite a few contenders, but also a couple of players with no chance of winning, starting with the two debutants, Jimmy Robertson and Andrew Pagett. It would be a big surprise if either of them made it past the 1st round, considering their draw, and considering this will be their TV debut.

Of the more familiar players, I would also rule out the likes of Marcus Campbell, Rory McLeod and Dave Harold. These are all very experienced players, and Campbell in particular has had a very good season, but none of them really have the scoring power to compete at the business end of the tournament. Jamie Burnett is another player I would rule out, although he has a somewhat better case. He reached a ranking final in Shanghai at the start of the season, so he shouldn't be underestimated, but that was a very specific tournament. A lot of the top players didn't really show up, quite literally in the case of O'Sullivan who would have been Burnett's 1st round opponent, so there was always a chance of going far with a good performance. It's harder to see the draw opening up like that in this tournament.

I would also rule out Mark King, a top16 player in the last couple of seasons, but without a really strong run in any tournament in the recent past. Stuart Bingham did have a good run in the UK Championship, playing some very good snooker, but he has never really threatened to win any tournament in the past. The same could be said about Barry Hawkins. I usually enjoy his matches, as he seems to find himself in a lot of close and nervy affairs, but unfortunately he doesn't come through them all that often. Then there is Joe Perry, always a dangerman in the longer events. He has reached the semi-finals of both the UK and the World Championship in his career, but it was at a time when he was playing his best snooker, which is something we haven't seen for a while now. I would rule out Dominic Dale for the same reason. He has two ranking titles to his name, the last one coming as recently as 2007, but he was never really a top player in his career, especially not in recent times.

That leaves 21 players whom I wouldn't rule out completely, but some of them are still longshots. Martin Gould was one of the more memorable players in last year's championship. He has shown some good form this season, but his nerve in high-pressure situations looks quite suspect to me, so I don't give him much chance here. Ryan Day has a similar case. After a poor run of form, he now finds himself as a qualifier once again, but he played quite well in the last two tournaments. He has reached three ranking finals in his career, so he is obviously dangerous, but the way he lost them suggests he probably won't be winning this tournament. Jamie Cope is another similar player, although ranked a bit higher at the moment. He seems to be enjoying his top16 status, not getting caught out in 1st rounds much, but he hasn't really looked like winning any tournament this season either. I think Mark Allen is probably the most dangerous in this particular group of players, ranked about as high as Cope, but a semi-finalist in the two biggest tournaments this season. He also played really well in the last two WCs, so I would expect another good performance. But with the recent news of his problems with depression, it's questionable whether he can actually play his best in this tournament. Ricky Walden is another seeded player, also very strong on his day, but he hasn't featured at the business end of tournaments a lot this season, so there is not much to suggest he can challenge for the title here.

I have my doubts about some of the more experienced players as well. Stephen Hendry for a start. His performances in the first part of the season were very poor, while the recent months have been slightly better, but without a good run in any tournament. He played some good stuff at the WC in recent years, so he could still be a danger, but with Selby in his part of the draw, I don't give him much chance this time. Marco Fu also seemed to struggle with his form for a long time, but came back at the Masters, playing some of his best snooker. His game doesn't really have a major weakness, so he can go on a good run when he finds his best. But considering how inconsistent he has been in recent years, it could be difficult for him to hold his form over two weeks. The same could be said about Peter Ebdon, also a tough man to beat when he plays his best, but unfortunately that's not very often these days. He also faces a big obstacle with Ding in his quarter, a player he has a particularly poor record against. How about the two players who have found some consistency this season, Matthew Stevens and Stephen Lee? Well, Stevens has featured a lot more than a season or two ago, but he has not really threatened to win a tournament so far. Having said that, the WC has always been his favourite event. As for Lee, he is certainly a very dangerous qualifier, probably capable of beating anyone on recent form, but whether he can last for 17 days is another matter. He often looks in trouble towards the end of a long match, so what chance does he have at the end of a long tournament?

The last 11 players are the ones who, in my opinion, have a more realistic chance of winning the title...

Let's start with Judd Trump, the most recent winner of a ranking event. I thought his performance in the China Open was superb, exactly the kind of performance you need to win titles. His potting and scoring were excellent, his safety was great as well, and he certainly held his nerve when it mattered. It certainly wasn't an easy match either, with a player like Selby coming back at him in the final session. It was a good test and he passed it. He certainly looks like a potential World champion, but will it be this year? Well, as good as his performance in China was, it is still the only really great tournament in his career so far. After a somewhat underwhelming couple of seasons, it is maybe a bit much to suddenly expect back-to-back tournament wins from him. In fact, they don't seem to happen at all in snooker these days, especially not the China and WC double. Still, you can't rule out any of this season's ranking event winners.

Speaking of those, Ali Carter could certainly be a dangerman. He won the first ranking event of the season, the Shanghai Masters back in September. His form in the middle part of the season wasn't great, but the last two events were pretty good again. He produced some of his best snooker at the WC in recent years, and I have a feeling he might do so again this year. He is a player with great scoring power, something you need to win this event, and his temperament also seems to be a lot stronger than a couple of years ago. Perhaps something I would question is his ability to perform against the really top players. He played two real outsiders in the two finals he won, while he was outclassed in the finals against O'Sullivan and Higgins for example. It will be interesting to see who (if anyone) takes him out this year.

Maybe Graeme Dott, his possible 2nd round opponent. I've been very impressed with him this season. It was looking like he might never return to his 2004-2007 form, but he is very much back now. He seems to have found a good pace around the table, and a somewhat more attacking style than previously. If you think about it, only three players have won the World title more recently than Dott, so you can't possibly underestimate him. His performance to reach the final last year was excellent, and if he shows something similar, I would give him every chance. Having said that, he played quite poorly in China, his first really bad tournament in a while. Could it be that his best form is already behind him, as far as this season is concerned?

What about Ronnie O'Sullivan? A lot of people still consider him the favourite, while some people don't give him any chance whatsoever. Well, his last major title is almost two years old, and it's been a while since he has won any match of decent length. His season so far has been terrible, with a bunch of 1st round exits. Perhaps that could work in his favour here, as he is not really expected to win. He played good stuff for most of last year's tournament, so that kind of form can't be too far away. I would still fancy him to win an open match against most players, so I expect players will try to avoid that kind of game. He could quite easily find some "one-visit" form for two weeks, as long as things don't get too scrappy. Having said that, it's a long tournament that can be lost in one bad session. For O'Sullivan, that was the case more often that not in recent years. And it will just get harder and harder each year, as he loses more and more confidence in his own game, and other players stop seeing him as unbeatable. He is also in a particularly tough part of the draw, with Higgins possibly awaiting in the QF. It will be interesting to see how well he does.

I think Stephen Maguire also has a decent chance this year. It seems like most people don't really consider him a genuine contender anymore, which is fair enough, as he hasn't really played to his 07/08 standard for a while. But I wouldn't be so quick to rule him out. In the 2007 and 2008 championships, he was probably the biggest danger to Higgins and O'Sullivan. He succumbed to the pressure against Higgins in 2007, and got caught out against Perry in 2008, probably thinking he would win the match by default. He was 2nd in the rankings and competing for every title. Well, he is not in that position now, but there is no reason for any permanent decline in his ability. He is still young enough to regain that sort of form, in fact, the recent Welsh Open final was his best result in a while. He has shown glimpses of his best in several matches recently. Having said that, even if he does play his best, there is always the question of his temperament. It would be tough to win the World Championship despite dwelling on every mistake, unless you don't make any mistakes of course.

Shaun Murphy could be a good bet as well. He is the opposite of Maguire in terms of temperament. He is very solid, doesn't seem to lose concentration easily, and doesn't crack under pressure either. As a former World and UK Champion, his ability to win this tournament is not in doubt. In fact, his WC record in the last five years or so is probably the best of any player, at least in terms of consistency. He always seems to be present in at least the quarter-finals. And once Murphy plays himself into a tournament, it's usually very hard to take him out. He played really well to win the PTC finals last month, getting a lot of his trademark long pots. He will certainly need that kind of form here, especially considering the part of the draw he is in. For all of his reliability though, he hasn't won anything really major in the last couple of years. The 2008 UK title was his last big win, so perhaps he is due another one...

Ding Junhui surely has to be a strong contender as well. His title drought is ancient history now after his wins in the UK Championship and The Masters in the last two seasons. In fact, other than O'Sullivan and Higgins, Ding is the only player to win two titles as big as that in the recent past. His performance in the Masters was one of the best performances of the season, he outclassed every one of his opponents with some great one-visit snooker. He also has a very adequate safety game now, that match against Selby in China saw him compete very well in the tactical frames. From that point of view, there is no reason why he can't win the WC. However, he is the only top player who has never played in the one-table situation at the Crucible before. He might have no problem with that, but then again, he might need that extra bit of experience first. There are also questions about his physical fitness. There were times when he looked tired at the end of long matches and tournaments in the past, the finals of the Grand Prix and the China Open last season being great examples. I think most players feel tired at some point in the WC, but Ding's game seems particularly affected by that, so perhaps that is something he will need to come through to give himself a chance.

And that leaves the four players who are, in my opinion, the immediate contenders for the title this year...

Let's start with John Higgins... Well, he holds two ranking titles at the moment, and he has been at the top or at least very near the top of the rankings for some time now, despite missing some tournaments. There is not much to say about his game, he is very strong in every department. Not much to say about his temperament either, some of the stuff he plays under pressure is incredible. All of that has helped him to win the World title two times in the last four years, so he has to be the favourite to do it again. So, let's see if there are any weaknesses... Well, I suppose the Davis scenario from last year can always happen again. He had nothing left for the WC after a good season, and he has arguably had an even better season this time. There is also the odd poor tournament here and there, like the this year's or last year's Masters for example. No one can be at the top of their game all the time. Having said that, Higgins often doesn't really need to be. As long as he plays reasonably well, it will take a great performance to stop him. But the WC is the place for great performances...

Then there is Mark Selby. Another complete player, most of the things I said about Higgins apply to Selby as well. He also doesn't have any apparent weakness, neither in his game nor his temperament. Perhaps you could even say he has an additional strength in his ability and willingness to use mind games and controversial tactics to win matches. He is also very fit physically, and seems to have endless reserves of grit and concentration, something that is particularly useful in the WC. However, if he has similar strengths as Higgins, he also has the same potential weakness. He has been in good form for a couple of months now, with two semi-finals and two finals in the last four ranking events. And the fact that he didn't win a title in that time must be somewhat frustrating for him. His performance in the China Open was particularly impressive. Higgins won the title in 2009 after reaching the final of the China Open, but I always thought he had room for improvement on that occasion. I'm not so sure with Selby, he might have peaked too early. Having said that, he has the kind of draw that could allow him to slowly play himself into the tournament here.

Mark Williams also finds himself among the immediate favourites this year. He was considered a strong contender last year as well, but there seems to be an even stronger case for him this time. The two highlights of his season are certainly the UK final and the German Masters title, and he has looked strong in other tournaments as well. His game is in very good shape, he scores as well as anyone and his safety is also very reliable. His potting comes and goes, depending on form, but it's mostly there as well. And when it is there, one gets the impression that no ball is really safe. Williams came into last year's tournament as the winner of the previous event, not usually a good sign, whereas he lost in the 1st round in China this year, despite a good performance. That is something that could certainly work in his favour. He also found himself next to O'Sullivan in last year's draw, while this year's draw is quite reasonable, although not easy. Stephen Maguire in particular has been Williams' bogey player recently, so he might be someone Williams will be hoping to avoid. Finally, even though Williams won two ranking titles recently, so he is certainly not rusty as far as winning is concerned anymore, it's still been a while since he last reached the business end of the World Championship. It shouldn't be too much of a problem though...

And finally Neil Robertson, the defending champion. I get the feeling Robertson is not on everyone's list of immediate contenders this year, in fact, the majority of people have predicted an early exit for him in the other thread. I suppose people think he was too weak in the run-up to the tournament, having done nothing particularly impressive in any event since the new year. Well, none of the recent champions won an event in the months prior to the WC, but some of them won events in the first part of the season. Robertson certainly impressed in September, and after he got to number one in the rankings, some people regarded him as the best player in the world. He has lost that title since, but I see no reason why his chances would have dropped so dramatically. He is another player who is very strong in most departments of the game. He has great scoring firepower, lots of patience, a competent safety game, and a great temperament. He also doesn't mind scrapping it out, if that's the only way to win a match. He is also young enough and fit enough to last the 17 days again. As for potential problems, well, there is the Crucible Curse for a start. It's not an actual curse of course, it's more about the pressure of being defending champion. There is also the nasty 1st round draw, which is particularly inconvenient for him, as he is a slow starter, and the tournament can be over on the first day for him. I have a feeling he is up for it though.


So there, that's what I think. Now that this over-analysis is done with, I am looking forward to two great weeks of snooker. Bring it on!

[jrc750]

Very good write up 0drl as usual, you should be a journalist mate

[Ari_vatanen]

Seconded on the write up,good stuff.

[cazmac1]

SH................................................ .....

[The Boss]

Ali or Ronnie will win it :snooker:

[Rane]

Ali or Ronnie will win it :snooker:

Has someone stolen your password. The real Boss always mentions Mark King as well.