Who going to win it this year?

[1lawyer]

Ok come on own up IS STEVE DAVIS'S MUM A MEMBER OF TSF?

[ore]

Who are the "newer players" left:

Neil Robertson
Mark Selby
Shaun Murphy
Ali Carter

Who are the "old guard" left:

Mark Williams
Ronnie O'Sullivan
Stephen Hendry
John Higgins


I think the winner will come from those 8, the Provisional 1,2,3,4,5,7,11,12.
Not a wild stretch, but, does anyone think someone will do a WTF One-Off this year?

About the only possible WTF is Zhang Anda
Others are already known not to contain enough of WTF.

Though how motivated or in what form are Lee and Dott these days? One of them could accidentally reach their QF, or above.


To form 8 most likely (or the only ones possible even): take away Hendry and Carter*, put in Ding and probably Allen, and it's about correct.


*why is he considered as a serious enough contender? Should be in that lacking bottle group alongside Maguire, Day, Cope, or somewhere else..

[gettingbetter]

Only recent history after the Hendry era. The cruicible jinx is about first time winners not repeating their victory. I would imagine that Higgins will be highly motivated, not only getting one better than Ronnie O´Sullivan, but also getting a back to back victory, which Ronnie hasn´t achieved either.

Its not only recent history though. Other than the Hendry and Davis era, it is just really difficult to defend any title. I think that last successful defence was either O'Sullivan defending the Welsh Open or Hunter at the Masters.

[montoya10]

Who are the "newer players" left:

Neil Robertson
Mark Selby
Shaun Murphy
Ali Carter

Who are the "old guard" left:

Mark Williams
Ronnie O'Sullivan
Stephen Hendry
John Higgins


I think the winner will come from those 8, the Provisional 1,2,3,4,5,7,11,12.
Not a wild stretch, but, does anyone think someone will do a WTF One-Off this year?



=o)

Noel

I still think "the old guard" commission is still too tough to get past for the newcomers. Not for anyone's surprise, "the old guard" has won 15 of the last 20 world championships and also the last three

I don't expect any "Oh my God, how did he do that?!" this season. The winner will be probably and [hopefully]the winner of MJW-Ronnie match. Maybe if HJohn reaches the final from the other side, he will be the biggest threat to any of those two.

Anyway, whoever wins it, I expect a good WC for me, after last year's disaster( Ronnie lost to Allen, MJW lost to Hendry, Murphy reaches the final )

[Rane]

Anyway, whoever wins it, I expect a good WC for me, after last year's disaster( Ronnie lost to Allen, MJW lost to Hendry, Murphy reaches the final )

I´ll predict that you´ll see a disaster already in the last 16 match, if those two are the players you´re hoping for

[Rane]

I don´t expect a "Oh my God, how did he do that?!" this season. If Cope or Dott wins their first round matches, I wouldn´t be so surprised to see them in a semifinal.

[Odrl]

Who is going to win it this year? That's a question I've been asking myself for the past few months, and it's time to find an answer.

There a couple of players who have been in the game for a long time, without having any major success. I think it's safe to say they won't be winning this Championship. They are Marcus Campbell, Stuart Pettman, Gerard Greene and Mark Davis. It would be a surprise if one of those made it to the 2nd round, although I suppose Davis does have a decent chance.

Tom Ford and Martin Gould are two players who have improved in recent times, getting a couple of good results, but they are realistically not good enough to trouble the big favourites here. Michael Holt is another player who has been on the scene for a long time, and while he at times looks as if he is going to have a good result sooner or later, his temperament eventually lets him down. A good run here is not out of the question for him, considering his draw, but he is obviously not going to win it.

The next group of players I would rule out contains the likes of Barry Hawkins, Fergal O'Brien and Steve Davis. Hawkins has been lurking around the 16th spot in the rankings for a number of years now, with a couple of semi-final appearances in ranking events. He is at the peak of his career, but in an event this long, there is always going to be someone playing better snooker than him. O'Brien is in a similar position. He is a very dangerous player when he's playing well. He reached a ranking final as recently as the 07/08 season, but his best years are now behind him, and he is struggling with consistency as the players of his age tend to. Steve Davis is extremely experienced, still capable of winning matches at the WC, but with the amount of mistakes and easy misses in his game, he can't really get past a top player who is playing really well.

Zhang Anda is the opposite of Davis, by far the youngest player in the tournament. It's too early to say what kind of career Zhang is going to have, but sometimes young talented players can have big tournaments before they are able to find some consistency and climb up the rankings. It's hard to say if that's going to be the case with Zhang, but I think he would already have left a bigger mark on the game if he was really ready to have a good result here.

There are a couple of other qualifiers I would rule out... Stephen Lee, a former top8 player, is still young enough to play his best game, but I can't see him lasting for 17 days with his poor physical fitness. He visibly struggles in some of his matches, and I think that's the reason for his fairly early decline. Jamie Cope and Liang Wenbo are two similar players who have both indicated that they are capable of having a result here. Cope took John Higgins all the way to a decider last year, in a match that he could probably have won against most other players. He has reached two ranking finals in his career, so he does have some idea of what it takes to win tournaments. What makes me doubt him is his collapse against O'Sullivan in the Welsh Open this year, where he was missing blacks off the spot like a very poor amateur. He has also shown very little improvement in the tactical aspect of the game. On the other hand, Liang has improved quite a bit. He is also younger than Cope, so there is probably more to come. His shot selection has gone from "insane" to "risky", and he also plays better safety than he used to. He also doesn't rush his shots, which can be helpful in an event such as this. You can't completely rule out a player who has already reached a final this season, but with his draw here, I can't see him winning it this year.

It's also very questionable whether the two former winners, Ken Doherty and Graeme Dott, are capable of winning it at this point in time. Doherty completely disappeared from the scene last season, but he had a couple of good results at the start of this one. However, he has not played anywhere near the standard required to win here, and with his age, he is not likely to play consistently well enough here for 17 days. Dott is much younger of course, but he has not had a significant run in any of the tournaments this year. His win in 2006 was a surprise, but he had a lot of appearances at the business end of tournaments prior to that. That's not the case now, unfortunately.

That leaves us with the 16 seeds. There are three players I would rule out at this point. Mark King may be a master of winning 1st round matches, but his runs deeper into tournaments are quite rare, especially at this stage of his career. You would think he has little chance of coming out of the quarter that contains the likes of Higgins and Robertson. Joe Perry is the player who has probably had the worst season out of any top16 player so far. But I wouldn't rule out a good run here. He is a very good player in the long format tournaments, something he has proved by appearing in the semi-finals of both the UK and the World Championships in recent years. However, there is always going to be a really in-form top player that has too much for him. And the third player I would rule out is Ryan Day. He gets to the business end of tournaments quite often, but he has somewhat collapsed in every final he has appeared in. It may be strange to rule out the 6th seed, but I don't think he has the class to ever win this event. His safety game is mediocre at the best of times, and non-existent at the worst of times. He is a great break-builder, but I don't fancy his game to withstand the kind of pressure that the one-table situation at the Crucible presents.

I wouldn't exactly bet my life against any of the players from the last three paragraphs winning it, but I do think their chances are close to none. The remaining 13 players have a more realistic chance in my opinion...

Mark Allen is the only remaining player who has not won a ranking title yet. But he has had a number of SF appearances now, including in this tournament last year. He is another player without a solid tactical game, although it wasn't too bad at the Masters. I think he is better at hiding his weaknesses than some of the other players, and he has shown that he can remain cool in a tense situation. He has also beaten both O'Sullivan and Higgins recently, which would have made him confident that he can beat anybody in the game. His draw up to the QF isn't too bad, so if he could get to the one-table situation again, you never know. But I think there are players with a better chance than him.

Marco Fu is not necessarily one of them, considering his poor performances in this season's ranking events, but there are a couple of things that speak in his favour. The best two results of his career, the 2007 Grand Prix title and the 2008 UK Championship final, are still fairly recent, and so is his SF at the World Championship in 2006. When he is playing well he is the complete player. A great break-builder, solid tactical game, great under pressure, and also a great record against some of the top players. But he also has a lot of games where nothing is going for him. If he's not playing well, he could be in trouble against Martin Gould, let alone Robertson.

Ali Carter could possibly have a good run as well. He's been playing pretty well since December, although not quite up to the standard that saw him win the 2009 Welsh Open and reach the 2008 World final. I think he saved his best for the WC this year. The draw is not too bad either, as long as he can get past the tricky 1st round opponent in Cope. The obvious weakness of Carter's has always been his poor handling of pressure, although he seems to have improved in that department recently. There are a couple of opponents he seems to like playing, like Hendry or Ebdon, who are unfortunately in the other half this year, but there is also Murphy who is in his quarter. Not one of the immediate favourites, but does have an outside shot...

Another player who could be saving his best for this event is Stephen Hendry. He has been pretty good against qualifiers this season, but not so much against other top16 players. He has a very tough draw, but that was the case in the last two years as well, and he still managed to get to a SF and a QF. He seems to have found some consistency in long-potting with his new cue, but there are still some matches where he inexplicably makes a lot of mistakes, and he finds it hard to play well in every session. I think he is very dangerous when he is considered the underdog, especially when he plays against opponents he recently lost to, which would be the case if he played Selby in the 2nd round. Of course he would break all kinds of modern records if he won the WC at his age, but I would never rule out the great man.

Peter Ebdon is another favourite who is a bit older than the rest, but unlike Hendry, he has won an event fairly recently. His performance in last season's China Open was as good a performance as you need to win events. He had nothing left for the WC last year, but I think he timed it perfectly this year. Obviously his determination and pressure play can't be questioned. When he feels he is playing well enough to win a tournament, he just never gives up, and never cracks either. His quarter is not too bad, so he has a decent chance of getting to the one-table situation. The question is what state his potting and break-building are in, because those are the elements of his game that come and go, everything else is very reliable.

Stephen Maguire could be Ebdon's 2nd round opponent, and a very dangerous one if he is playing well. His season has been pretty good in terms of results, but not so much in terms of form. He reached the SF of three events, but didn't really threaten to win them, it was more a case of the draw opening up for him. I just have no idea what kind of form Maguire is likely to show here, but some performances like the one against Williams at the Welsh Open would do him a lot of good. At his best, I think he has more firepower than any other player of his generation (Murphy, Selby, Robertson), but other players can handle the pressure better. He also has a habit of going insane when his game lets him down, rather than battling through it.

Ding Junhui could also be dangerous this year, as we get into the more immediate favourites now. Probably the player of the season so far, with the UK Championship title and two other ranking finals. He seems to be scoring consistently well, except for those two off events in January, and a lot of his opponents have struggled to stay with him. His safety game has also improved dramatically, which means he now competes pretty well in the scrappy frames as well. But those two finals he lost showed his main weakness again. As soon as he went a couple of frames behind, he seemed to lose heart too quickly. You just can't win the WC without the will to fight, especially when you come to the three or four-session matches. There is also the possibility that he peaked too early, so he could have little left for this event. He is also the only player from these 13 who has not played in the one-table setup at the Crucible yet.

Mark Williams must also be considered as one of the favourites this year. He is one of only six players to win an event this season, but more impressively, he is one of the players to be the most present at the business end of tournaments, along with Higgins, Ding and O'Sullivan. He seems to have found his scoring and potting form again, and a certain pace around the table that seems to suit him. He might have been a bit rusty at playing matches at the business end of tournaments a couple of months ago, but he has played quite a few now, so he would be very dangerous if he got through that nasty fourth quarter. But that's a big if... His main problem is O'Sullivan, an opponent he hasn't beaten for a very long time, and also an opponent who is the best in the world in the type of snooker Williams is playing this season. The fact that Williams is the winner of the previous event could also work against him here.

A player who is not talked about much this year is Shaun Murphy. I have a strong suspicion that he could play an important role in this event again. He has had very little success this season, but he only played two good tournament last season as well. He was the only seed apart from O'Sullivan to go out in the 1st round of the China Open. That was a couple of weeks ago, so it remains to be seen if he was able to get his game in shape, especially for the 2nd round where he should meet Ding. I think he could be very hard to stop if he gets past that one. His record at the Crucible in the last five years is excellent, he only went out before the QF once, when he lost to Carter in 2008. He is a very determined character, not easily overwhelmed by anything, and has the kind of game that holds up over long matches.

Ronnie O'Sullivan is the bookies' favourite, but maybe not quite at the top of my list. He is still a tremendous player, especially when he gets into his rhythm. He played well in the two biggest events, the UK Championship and the Masters, where he seemed as concentrated and determined as he can get. He also won the Shanghai Masters, although he didn't really play his best game there. His main problem of the season seemed to be Higgins, who knocked him out of three events. O'Sullivan showed sings of low confidence in those matches, and missed a couple of balls towards the end that he wouldn't usually miss. He also had the Masters final won, but played quite poorly when he needed to get over the line. The draw could work for him here, especially if he meets Hendry rather than Selby in the QF. Liang, Williams and Hendry are three of the opponents he beat on the way to his 3rd World title in 2008, so they should suit him pretty well. I'm not so sure about Selby though. O'Sullivan struggles to hold it together for 17 days. He lost a number of World Championships in one session, even when he seemed to be playing well up to that point. I think it would be hard for him to get past Selby over three sessions, but then again, you never know with O'Sullivan.

I would give the final three players the best chance of winning it this year. John Higgins has had a very consistent season, with only one slip-up at the Masters. He seems to win most of his matches with his B-game, no matter how well his opponent is playing. There were a couple of players who have beaten him though, and he will need to be at his best if he meets someone like an in-form Robertson again. Higgins' strengths don't really need to be listed, he is a master of pretty much every element of snooker, and arguably the best player in the world. He won the WC two times in the last three years, where he was only in trouble a couple of times, and even then he responded brilliantly. What could work against him here is the pressure of being the defending champion, and also the fact that he has been in good form for quite a long time now.

Neil Robertson is also in with a good chance. His performance at the Grand Prix was probably the best he has ever played, and the best anyone has played this season. He is a great potter, capable of potting his way out of trouble, but that's a strength he doesn't need to rely on so much these days. His tactical game has also improved, so that should give him a chance against the likes of Higgins. He had a taste of what it's like to play four sessions on the one table at the Crucible last year, so he should be pretty well prepared is he comes that far again. His interviews show him to be a player who likes to think about his opponents and look for any sort of edge, which is a very good quality in my opinion. He is famously the most comfortable in the evening sessions, which could come into play at some point, but he will need to play a number of morning sessions as well, which is what cost him in last year's SF against Murphy. He can be vulnerable early in the tournament, but once he gets to the QF, he should be tough to beat.

And finally, the third of my big favourites would be Mark Selby. Unfortunately for him, his draw is just about as nasty as it gets. He would need to beat three great players to even get to the SF, but somebody has to win that quarter. His season in the ranking events has been decent at best, but that win at the Masters makes him one of the favourites here. He showed what a great pressure player he is in that final. And just like Robertson, I think he is afraid of no one. His ability to relieve the pressure from himself in the tense situations should be a great asset over 17 days. He is also pretty fit physically, and young enough to avoid bad sessions. His tactical awareness is superb, and he is also pretty good at mind games, which should help him against the players who respond poorly to that type of thing. His scoring can be slightly unreliable, but when he does have it, he has no real weakness. He was probably the 2nd best player in last year's WC, and if he could repeat that kind of performances, there are not many players that can beat him.

So there, only a couple of hours left now... I think I've said everything I needed to. I don't have a strong prediction of who is going to win this, but if someone held a gun to my head... I can see Selby and Robertson meeting in the final.

[ore]

Jesus Christ, Odrl..

Whom did you bet on?

[pat39]

If Ali Carter wins his 1st Round match I can see him going all the way to the final where he will play Mark Selby.

BTW great preview Odrl.

[Odrl]

Jesus Christ, Odrl..

Whom did you bet on?

I didn't bet on anyone. But I did write down a little fictional bet, where I would be guaranteed a profit for 11 different winners. So pretty much a winning bet if anyone other than O'Sullivan, Ding and Carter won it, unless there was a major shock. I've done this for every tournament this season, with mixed success.

[Mr P]

Boody hell Odrl, that is single handedly the biggest forum post I have even seen.

[crucible77]

Who is going to win it this year? That's a question I've been asking myself for the past few months, and it's time to find an answer.

There a couple of players who have been in the game for a long time, without having any major success. I think it's safe to say they won't be winning this Championship. They are Marcus Campbell, Stuart Pettman, Gerard Greene and Mark Davis. It would be a surprise if one of those made it to the 2nd round, although I suppose Davis does have a decent chance.

Tom Ford and Martin Gould are two players who have improved in recent times, getting a couple of good results, but they are realistically not good enough to trouble the big favourites here. Michael Holt is another player who has been on the scene for a long time, and while he at times looks as if he is going to have a good result sooner or later, his temperament eventually lets him down. A good run here is not out of the question for him, considering his draw, but he is obviously not going to win it.

The next group of players I would rule out contains the likes of Barry Hawkins, Fergal O'Brien and Steve Davis. Hawkins has been lurking around the 16th spot in the rankings for a number of years now, with a couple of semi-final appearances in ranking events. He is at the peak of his career, but in an event this long, there is always going to be someone playing better snooker than him. O'Brien is in a similar position. He is a very dangerous player when he's playing well. He reached a ranking final as recently as the 07/08 season, but his best years are now behind him, and he is struggling with consistency as the players of his age tend to. Steve Davis is extremely experienced, still capable of winning matches at the WC, but with the amount of mistakes and easy misses in his game, he can't really get past a top player who is playing really well.

Zhang Anda is the opposite of Davis, by far the youngest player in the tournament. It's too early to say what kind of career Zhang is going to have, but sometimes young talented players can have big tournaments before they are able to find some consistency and climb up the rankings. It's hard to say if that's going to be the case with Zhang, but I think he would already have left a bigger mark on the game if he was really ready to have a good result here.

There are a couple of other qualifiers I would rule out... Stephen Lee, a former top8 player, is still young enough to play his best game, but I can't see him lasting for 17 days with his poor physical fitness. He visibly struggles in some of his matches, and I think that's the reason for his fairly early decline. Jamie Cope and Liang Wenbo are two similar players who have both indicated that they are capable of having a result here. Cope took John Higgins all the way to a decider last year, in a match that he could probably have won against most other players. He has reached two ranking finals in his career, so he does have some idea of what it takes to win tournaments. What makes me doubt him is his collapse against O'Sullivan in the Welsh Open this year, where he was missing blacks off the spot like a very poor amateur. He has also shown very little improvement in the tactical aspect of the game. On the other hand, Liang has improved quite a bit. He is also younger than Cope, so there is probably more to come. His shot selection has gone from "insane" to "risky", and he also plays better safety than he used to. He also doesn't rush his shots, which can be helpful in an event such as this. You can't completely rule out a player who has already reached a final this season, but with his draw here, I can't see him winning it this year.

It's also very questionable whether the two former winners, Ken Doherty and Graeme Dott, are capable of winning it at this point in time. Doherty completely disappeared from the scene last season, but he had a couple of good results at the start of this one. However, he has not played anywhere near the standard required to win here, and with his age, he is not likely to play consistently well enough here for 17 days. Dott is much younger of course, but he has not had a significant run in any of the tournaments this year. His win in 2006 was a surprise, but he had a lot of appearances at the business end of tournaments prior to that. That's not the case now, unfortunately.

That leaves us with the 16 seeds. There are three players I would rule out at this point. Mark King may be a master of winning 1st round matches, but his runs deeper into tournaments are quite rare, especially at this stage of his career. You would think he has little chance of coming out of the quarter that contains the likes of Higgins and Robertson. Joe Perry is the player who has probably had the worst season out of any top16 player so far. But I wouldn't rule out a good run here. He is a very good player in the long format tournaments, something he has proved by appearing in the semi-finals of both the UK and the World Championships in recent years. However, there is always going to be a really in-form top player that has too much for him. And the third player I would rule out is Ryan Day. He gets to the business end of tournaments quite often, but he has somewhat collapsed in every final he has appeared in. It may be strange to rule out the 6th seed, but I don't think he has the class to ever win this event. His safety game is mediocre at the best of times, and non-existent at the worst of times. He is a great break-builder, but I don't fancy his game to withstand the kind of pressure that the one-table situation at the Crucible presents.

I wouldn't exactly bet my life against any of the players from the last three paragraphs winning it, but I do think their chances are close to none. The remaining 13 players have a more realistic chance in my opinion...

Mark Allen is the only remaining player who has not won a ranking title yet. But he has had a number of SF appearances now, including in this tournament last year. He is another player without a solid tactical game, although it wasn't too bad at the Masters. I think he is better at hiding his weaknesses than some of the other players, and he has shown that he can remain cool in a tense situation. He has also beaten both O'Sullivan and Higgins recently, which would have made him confident that he can beat anybody in the game. His draw up to the QF isn't too bad, so if he could get to the one-table situation again, you never know. But I think there are players with a better chance than him.

Marco Fu is not necessarily one of them, considering his poor performances in this season's ranking events, but there are a couple of things that speak in his favour. The best two results of his career, the 2007 Grand Prix title and the 2008 UK Championship final, are still fairly recent, and so is his SF at the World Championship in 2006. When he is playing well he is the complete player. A great break-builder, solid tactical game, great under pressure, and also a great record against some of the top players. But he also has a lot of games where nothing is going for him. If he's not playing well, he could be in trouble against Martin Gould, let alone Robertson.

Ali Carter could possibly have a good run as well. He's been playing pretty well since December, although not quite up to the standard that saw him win the 2009 Welsh Open and reach the 2008 World final. I think he saved his best for the WC this year. The draw is not too bad either, as long as he can get past the tricky 1st round opponent in Cope. The obvious weakness of Carter's has always been his poor handling of pressure, although he seems to have improved in that department recently. There are a couple of opponents he seems to like playing, like Hendry or Ebdon, who are unfortunately in the other half this year, but there is also Murphy who is in his quarter. Not one of the immediate favourites, but does have an outside shot...

Another player who could be saving his best for this event is Stephen Hendry. He has been pretty good against qualifiers this season, but not so much against other top16 players. He has a very tough draw, but that was the case in the last two years as well, and he still managed to get to a SF and a QF. He seems to have found some consistency in long-potting with his new cue, but there are still some matches where he inexplicably makes a lot of mistakes, and he finds it hard to play well in every session. I think he is very dangerous when he is considered the underdog, especially when he plays against opponents he recently lost to, which would be the case if he played Selby in the 2nd round. Of course he would break all kinds of modern records if he won the WC at his age, but I would never rule out the great man.

Peter Ebdon is another favourite who is a bit older than the rest, but unlike Hendry, he has won an event fairly recently. His performance in last season's China Open was as good a performance as you need to win events. He had nothing left for the WC last year, but I think he timed it perfectly this year. Obviously his determination and pressure play can't be questioned. When he feels he is playing well enough to win a tournament, he just never gives up, and never cracks either. His quarter is not too bad, so he has a decent chance of getting to the one-table situation. The question is what state his potting and break-building are in, because those are the elements of his game that come and go, everything else is very reliable.

Stephen Maguire could be Ebdon's 2nd round opponent, and a very dangerous one if he is playing well. His season has been pretty good in terms of results, but not so much in terms of form. He reached the SF of three events, but didn't really threaten to win them, it was more a case of the draw opening up for him. I just have no idea what kind of form Maguire is likely to show here, but some performances like the one against Williams at the Welsh Open would do him a lot of good. At his best, I think he has more firepower than any other player of his generation (Murphy, Selby, Robertson), but other players can handle the pressure better. He also has a habit of going insane when his game lets him down, rather than battling through it.

Ding Junhui could also be dangerous this year, as we get into the more immediate favourites now. Probably the player of the season so far, with the UK Championship title and two other ranking finals. He seems to be scoring consistently well, except for those two off events in January, and a lot of his opponents have struggled to stay with him. His safety game has also improved dramatically, which means he now competes pretty well in the scrappy frames as well. But those two finals he lost showed his main weakness again. As soon as he went a couple of frames behind, he seemed to lose heart too quickly. You just can't win the WC without the will to fight, especially when you come to the three or four-session matches. There is also the possibility that he peaked too early, so he could have little left for this event. He is also the only player from these 13 who has not played in the one-table setup at the Crucible yet.

Mark Williams must also be considered as one of the favourites this year. He is one of only six players to win an event this season, but more impressively, he is one of the players to be the most present at the business end of tournaments, along with Higgins, Ding and O'Sullivan. He seems to have found his scoring and potting form again, and a certain pace around the table that seems to suit him. He might have been a bit rusty at playing matches at the business end of tournaments a couple of months ago, but he has played quite a few now, so he would be very dangerous if he got through that nasty fourth quarter. But that's a big if... His main problem is O'Sullivan, an opponent he hasn't beaten for a very long time, and also an opponent who is the best in the world in the type of snooker Williams is playing this season. The fact that Williams is the winner of the previous event could also work against him here.

A player who is not talked about much this year is Shaun Murphy. I have a strong suspicion that he could play an important role in this event again. He has had very little success this season, but he only played two good tournament last season as well. He was the only seed apart from O'Sullivan to go out in the 1st round of the China Open. That was a couple of weeks ago, so it remains to be seen if he was able to get his game in shape, especially for the 2nd round where he should meet Ding. I think he could be very hard to stop if he gets past that one. His record at the Crucible in the last five years is excellent, he only went out before the QF once, when he lost to Carter in 2008. He is a very determined character, not easily overwhelmed by anything, and has the kind of game that holds up over long matches.

Ronnie O'Sullivan is the bookies' favourite, but maybe not quite at the top of my list. He is still a tremendous player, especially when he gets into his rhythm. He played well in the two biggest events, the UK Championship and the Masters, where he seemed as concentrated and determined as he can get. He also won the Shanghai Masters, although he didn't really play his best game there. His main problem of the season seemed to be Higgins, who knocked him out of three events. O'Sullivan showed sings of low confidence in those matches, and missed a couple of balls towards the end that he wouldn't usually miss. He also had the Masters final won, but played quite poorly when he needed to get over the line. The draw could work for him here, especially if he meets Hendry rather than Selby in the QF. Liang, Williams and Hendry are three of the opponents he beat on the way to his 3rd World title in 2008, so they should suit him pretty well. I'm not so sure about Selby though. O'Sullivan struggles to hold it together for 17 days. He lost a number of World Championships in one session, even when he seemed to be playing well up to that point. I think it would be hard for him to get past Selby over three sessions, but then again, you never know with O'Sullivan.

I would give the final three players the best chance of winning it this year. John Higgins has had a very consistent season, with only one slip-up at the Masters. He seems to win most of his matches with his B-game, no matter how well his opponent is playing. There were a couple of players who have beaten him though, and he will need to be at his best if he meets someone like an in-form Robertson again. Higgins' strengths don't really need to be listed, he is a master of pretty much every element of snooker, and arguably the best player in the world. He won the WC two times in the last three years, where he was only in trouble a couple of times, and even then he responded brilliantly. What could work against him here is the pressure of being the defending champion, and also the fact that he has been in good form for quite a long time now.

Neil Robertson is also in with a good chance. His performance at the Grand Prix was probably the best he has ever played, and the best anyone has played this season. He is a great potter, capable of potting his way out of trouble, but that's a strength he doesn't need to rely on so much these days. His tactical game has also improved, so that should give him a chance against the likes of Higgins. He had a taste of what it's like to play four sessions on the one table at the Crucible last year, so he should be pretty well prepared is he comes that far again. His interviews show him to be a player who likes to think about his opponents and look for any sort of edge, which is a very good quality in my opinion. He is famously the most comfortable in the evening sessions, which could come into play at some point, but he will need to play a number of morning sessions as well, which is what cost him in last year's SF against Murphy. He can be vulnerable early in the tournament, but once he gets to the QF, he should be tough to beat.

And finally, the third of my big favourites would be Mark Selby. Unfortunately for him, his draw is just about as nasty as it gets. He would need to beat three great players to even get to the SF, but somebody has to win that quarter. His season in the ranking events has been decent at best, but that win at the Masters makes him one of the favourites here. He showed what a great pressure player he is in that final. And just like Robertson, I think he is afraid of no one. His ability to relieve the pressure from himself in the tense situations should be a great asset over 17 days. He is also pretty fit physically, and young enough to avoid bad sessions. His tactical awareness is superb, and he is also pretty good at mind games, which should help him against the players who respond poorly to that type of thing. His scoring can be slightly unreliable, but when he does have it, he has no real weakness. He was probably the 2nd best player in last year's WC, and if he could repeat that kind of performances, there are not many players that can beat him.

So there, only a couple of hours left now... I think I've said everything I needed to. I don't have a strong prediction of who is going to win this, but if someone held a gun to my head... I can see Selby and Robertson meeting in the final.

wow ......

[Freddie Ng]

Very very detail and precise Odrl..

[Mr P]

Well theres now one person that is out of contention.......Barry Hawkins, you called that right Odrl

[Odrl]

Well, now that we've got the eight quarter-finalists, it's a good time to reconsider everyone's chances...

Steve Davis is one of the two players I ruled out to still be in the tournament. Realistically, his chances are very small. He played well enough to win the title in the first session against John Higgins. He had a pot success of 95% and didn't play a poor safety all night. But that was his one and only really great session of snooker. He made a lot of mistakes in the rest of that match, and just showed how hard it is for a player of his age to play consistently well in a long tournament. He has a pretty good record against Robertson, so there is some chance of going through there, but at some point, he is bound to meet an opponent who will punish him more than Higgins did.

Graeme Dott was the other player I ruled out, but I would strongly reconsider this now. He is playing as well as when he was a strong contender for every title a couple of years ago, but there are a couple of things against him now. He has not played a really big match for quite some time, so he could be a bit rusty in that type of situation. He also hasn't had the kind of results that boosted his confidence and morale prior to that win in 2006. But one thing in his favour should be that he knows exactly what it takes to win this title, which is something you can't say for all of his rivals here. He could potentially play O'Sullivan in the SF again, and we all know what happened last time.

Ali Carter has pretty quietly got to the QF, with the spotlight on some other players, so he could be very dangerous. He plays Shaun Murphy, whom he beat comfortably in 2008, so he will fancy his chances. I don't think he's quite at his very best, and he also showed some vulnerability again in the match against Perry, where he let a strong position slip away. But the draw is not too bad for him, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see him in the final.

Mark Allen is in the QF again. He was an underdog at this stage last year, but he is probably a bit higher on the list of contenders now. He is the player who has probably been tested the least so far, so it's a question whether his good play is a result of not being under much pressure. But pressure or not, his game is clearly there, so it remains to be seen if it can hold up at the business end of the tournament. Allen is not scared of the big occasions, and not scared of the top players either. But does he have the game to compete with a better O'Sullivan than last year, or perhaps with an in-form Selby? Maybe not quite yet, especially over long distances.

Neil Robertson was one of my pre-tournament favourites, but he has obviously dropped down a few places now. Most of the things I said about him still apply, but his current form is the thing that raises questions. He looked pretty good against O'Brien, especially in the tactical aspect of the game, but he then had no answer for Martin Gould in the first two sessions. His comeback proves that he has the "heart" to win this title, but it would be a bit tougher to pull off against someone like Murphy, for example. Still, Robertson usually gets stronger with every round, and I wouldn't put it past him to significantly raise his game now. When players survive the kind of match that Robertson survived, the pressure is slightly lifted, because they feel like they have already achieved more than they could have.

Shaun Murphy is another player I expected to see in the QF. I always felt like he could possibly hang onto Ding in the first two sessions, and come good towards the end. He has done that, and that kind of match is just what you need to sharpen up your game. Carter may not be his favourite opponent, but Murphy is very good at turning rivalries in his favour. His game is about as strong as it was last year, so I can't really see him having any particularly bad sessions from this point. Whoever is going to beat him will need to play really well, perhaps as well as Higgins played last year. But Higgins is already out this time...

Ronnie O'Sullivan was not at the very top of my list, but he is at least 2nd favourite now. His final session against Williams was his best session of snooker in a long time. He potted a bunch of tricky balls, which is an element of his game that usually lets him down these days. His scoring power is pretty consistent though, and it's going to be hard to match by the remaining players now, especially with the likes of Maguire, Ding and Higgins already out. The worrying things for O'Sullivan are his concentration and discipline, which have been very good so far. But the hard part starts now, with a determined Selby waiting in the QF, and then possibly his old tricky rival Dott. But I definitely think that the match against Selby is closer to being the final for O'Sullivan than the actual final might be.

Mark Selby was one of my possible picks for the final, along with Robertson, and he remains one of the immediate favourites after his thrashing of Hendry. I actually think he is playing quite a bit better now than he did in the Masters. His scoring is superb, he gets a lot of long pots and a lot of good cannons, so he is ready to play one-visit snooker. His safety is superb, as is his tactical awareness to exploit his opponents' weaknesses. That might be particularly useful against O'Sullivan, an opponent who doesn't hold the same psychological advantage over Selby as he does over most other players. Selby also seems pretty fit physically, and ready to play in the mornings as well as the evenings. If he gets past O'Sullivan, he will be very hard to stop.

That's my general impression of who is or isn't playing well enough to win this week, but perhaps I'm getting a bit ahead of things. All four QF matches look like very interesting prospects in their own right, so I'm looking forward to watching and discussing each one of them.