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Shot difficulty/match equity question

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  • Shot difficulty/match equity question

    This is taken from another forum where it caused heated debate but would like to get some more specialist snooker players thoughts on it. The situation is taken from an O'Sullivan v Higgins game where O'Sullivan left himself snookered like so:



    The first question I would like some thoughts on is what the general consencus is on the percentage chance of rolling dead weight (so roughly two inches squared margin of error) into the green is, playing the shot with the spider/swan neck and possibly the extended cue over the red like so (assuming we are a pro standard):



    The second question is what we think O'Sullivan's match equity is with Higgins to play the same setup of reds as in the diagram, with the cue ball tight to the baulk cushion next to the left hand side of the yellow? Is O'Sullivan a favourite or a dog, and if so by how much is he ahead/behind?
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