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When we see the players' various stats pop up between frames, can someone please explain what constitutes a successful safety shot? A shot that your opponent fails to pot from? A shot that your opponent makes an error from? What if a good safety shot is followed by a good safety shot in return? Is the first shot deemed a 'successful' safety or not?
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"Kryten, isn't it round about this time of year that your head goes back to the lab for retuning?" -
Last time they explained it on BBC the commentators didn't seem 100% sure, but they seemed to think it was a safety that the opponent did not them pot a ball from. It wasn't any more complex than that.Originally Posted by Billy View Post"Do unto others 20% better than you would expect them to do unto you, to correct for subjective error"
- Linus Pauling -
Mmm, well if that is the case, then it does allow for some very high percentages I'd say. If the white is put behind the baulk line with a safety shot, I'd say his opponent would miss (or refuse) a long distance pot more often than they get it.Originally Posted by nrage View Post"Kryten, isn't it round about this time of year that your head goes back to the lab for retuning?"Comment
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Sometimes there isn't a good safety and the opponent is forced into a pot, and they get those tough pots an incredible number of times when they have no choice. I think that situation takes a lot of pressure off because there is no second guessing the decision.Originally Posted by Billy View Post"Do unto others 20% better than you would expect them to do unto you, to correct for subjective error"
- Linus PaulingComment
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Those percentages they put up are pretty meaningless. Even more meaningless than the averages they put up in darts.
If you miss a ball when the frame is over, after making a century, your pot percentage rate goes down, but it doesn't matter.
If you make three 20 breaks, and run out of position badly each time, but clinch it on the colours, you win the frame and get a 100% pot success rate.
Which is better?
The same thing applies to safety success rate, you could play a poor safety shot, but your opponent could miss, but this would presumably go down as a successful safety. It's not really a very useful gauge of how well you're playing.Comment
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No, I suspected not, but the commentators do like to bandy the figures about, don't they?Originally Posted by wake_up_bomb View Post"Kryten, isn't it round about this time of year that your head goes back to the lab for retuning?"Comment
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The snooker statistics get more meaningful the more frames are played. The examples you've given have the adverse effects you're describing, especially if that's the only frame you've played, but play 19 more frames and that 1 weird frame becomes less significant and the real percentages start to emerge. As with all statistical modelling more samples mean more accurate results, and too small sample sizes give meaningless results.Originally Posted by wake_up_bomb View Post"Do unto others 20% better than you would expect them to do unto you, to correct for subjective error"
- Linus PaulingComment
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The system is very simple, I believe (it has to be).
If your opponent doesn't pot a ball, your safety success increases (whether you actually played a safety shot previously or not). If he does, it decreases. And vice versa.Comment
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I dont think this would be 100% pot success rate, as there would have been a shot between the breaks where nothing was potted, so the pot success rate would be number of pots/number of shots.Originally Posted by wake_up_bomb View Post
But the safety could be good, as in this example, 2 shots were good safety, i.e the opponent did not pot, so for this frame the safety could be 2 shots to safety out of 2 shots to safety = 100%
How safety success is calculated I am not sure, but I think it could be if player A plays a safety (i.e. no attempt of pot) and leaves the cue ball in a "safe" position in relation to the ball(s) on, +1 for safety count, regardless if player B hits/pots on his shot.
Or maybe it is down to if Player B Hits the ball(s) on, -1 for player A?
quagmire I think
Up the TSF! :snooker:Comment
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I think it only counts/includes shots which were attempted pots. So, safety shots don't count in the pot success calculation. I'm not sure whether or not a shot to nothing counts, or if the system see's that as a safety. It depends whether a machine is making the distinction or if there is a person sitting there pressing buttons.Originally Posted by DeanH View Post
I believe if player A plays a safety (does not attempt a pot) and player B comes to the table..Originally Posted by DeanH View PostBut the safety could be good, as in this example, 2 shots were good safety, i.e the opponent did not pot, so for this frame the safety could be 2 shots to safety out of 2 shots to safety = 100%
How safety success is calculated I am not sure, but I think it could be if player A plays a safety (i.e. no attempt of pot) and leaves the cue ball in a "safe" position in relation to the ball(s) on, +1 for safety count, regardless if player B hits/pots on his shot.
Or maybe it is down to if Player B Hits the ball(s) on, -1 for player A?
quagmire I think
- and pots (safety success goes down)
- does not pot (safety success goes up)
It's that simple. It may even be simpler, as FOX suggests."Do unto others 20% better than you would expect them to do unto you, to correct for subjective error"
- Linus PaulingComment
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