Why did Mark Selby select this shot at the Pool WPC 2006 Final again Derren Appleton?

[sn000ker]

I was watching the Selby v. Appleton Pool WCP 2006 Final (available here) and I was surprised by Mark's shot selection. In particular, this was the situation (Selby was with yellows):



I would have thought that a natural shot selection here would be to pocket the yellow in the left middle, use the natural angle to cannon the red and yellow right below it in order "un-stick" them, leaving the cue ball almost guaranteed on the yellow to the lower right corner pocket. Something like this:



Instead, Mark played a much more risky shot, avoiding the cannon and coming down for the yellow to the right middle pocket:



I don't understand his shot selection, could someone please explain to me why this is more advantageous than my idea?

[alabadi]

looking at your selection, i not sure you would get on the yellow to the middle as you indicated, i think there is a chance the cueball would flick off the red and cannon the yellow to the rail.
maybe this was what he was afraid of.

[jamesg19851]

He knows that if he gets on the yellow to middle as intended then at his level it's basically game over. With a cannon something might more easily go wrong, maybe he saw it as a riskier shot. Your shot does seem valid though and is maybe the shot I would have taken on.

[Cyril]

I would have played your shot myself but I guess he was thinking the golden rule that canons can always go wrong and he wanted to eliminate that possibility. The thing that surprised me most about Selby's choice of route was that he potted the 3rd last yellow and only then did he start checking out to see if the other one passed the red to the left side pocket. Had that not have been potable he'd have been in trouble.

Looking again at your shot... I suppose he thought too thick on the canon and he could stick to the red, too thin and he could lose the white and possibly end up too close to the yellow ball.

[jrc750]

I don't play pool but whatever works is the right shot surely 😆

[jonny66]

I think they're both pretty risky, cannons can always go wrong and leave you on nothing, but the route he took could easily have left him snookered on the yellow to right middle. Maybe he thought he could pot the yellow to right middle of the red if he landed snookered, looks like it might be on. EDIT - no it doesn't, just looked again.

[billabong]

If they all pot, without a canon, leave them alone.

That seems to be the way the top guys do it.

[sn000ker]

Thank you all for your answers. I guess the thing to take away here is that cannons are evil unless you absolutely have no other choice.

Commenting on Cyril's reply, I also found it surprising that he did not check whether the last yellow potted to the left middle. I can only guess what he would have played if it didn't go...

[warren132]

Suppose thats why he is the only person to have won the world pool championship and world snooker championship.

[blahblah01]

If all 3 go, then why canon? Imh(umble)opinion it would be riskier here than Snooker, due to the smaller table.....

Btw: is this the one with the glorious line of "most players would have played safe there, but not Selby: he attacks"? (or similar)

[vmax]

To get the cannon you suggest then he would have had to hit the shot a lot harder making the cannon a bit of a lottery as to where the red/yellow combination would end up. It looks as though the yellow would have gone around the pocket and ended up behind the red on the top cushion, so seeing as the red touching the yellow was completely safe where it was he left it there and if he misseed it then became Appleton's problem.