Actually, chasmmi, your first answer is correct! Well done!
Since the ape who started has neither advantage nor disadvantage (each ape being equally likely to win the frame), his chance of potting the black to win must be the same as his chance of fouling to lose.
Since the ape who started has neither advantage nor disadvantage (each ape being equally likely to win the frame), his chance of potting the black to win must be the same as his chance of fouling to lose.
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