Ssb - crucible countdown: Shocks to the system

[MySockPuppet]

There have arguably been only four surprise winners of the World Championship title during the 33 years it has been staged at the Crucible.

Terry Griffiths stunned the snooker world in 1979 by winning it at his first attempt as a qualifier.

Joe Johnson was 150/1 in 1986 while Shaun Murphy came through the qualifiers to land the title in 2005.

Graeme Dott had been in a world final but was still a shock winner in 2006 because he had never before won a ranking event crown.

Could anyone conceivably come through the pack to repeat these heroics this year?

As ever in sport, it’s the not knowing that keeps audiences coming back. Who could have believed Tom Watson would have had a putt for the Open title last year or that wildcard Goran Ivanesevic, his body racked with injuries, could win Wimbledon in 2001?

To help discern what registers as a shock winner, I have divided the 32 players in this year’s event into six categories represented by the coloured balls.

The yellows are the players least likely to win and the black category features those with the best chance – in my opinion!

I have taken into account the draw, form, past record and personal prejudice.

Yellow: Steve Davis, Stuart Pettman, Mark Davis, Marcus Campbell

Green: Tom Ford, Zhang Anda, Gerard Greene, Martin Gould, Fergal O’Brien

Brown: Michael Holt, Joe Perry, Stephen Lee, Ken Doherty, Mark King, Barry Hawkins, Marco Fu

Blue: Stephen Hendry, Ali Carter, Jamie Cope, Liang Wenbo, Peter Ebdon, Graeme Dott, Mark Allen, Ryan Day

Pink: Mark Williams, Mark Selby, Shaun Murphy, Stephen Maguire

Black: John Higgins, Ronnie O’Sullivan, Ding Junhui, Neil Robertson

I would say that if any of those from the yellow to brown groups won the title it would register as a shock.

To an extent, it would if any of the blues won but not those from the pink or black groups.

(Is anyone still following this?)

Last year, only two of the top 16 failed to get through the first round.

Who looks vulnerable this year?

Certainly Selby doesn’t have it easy against a resurgent Doherty and Carter could come a cropper against Cope.

I think Dott has every chance against Ebdon and Higgins is not by any means nailed on to beat Hawkins.

It would be a huge shock were Ding or Williams to lose given their recent form and despite what a lot of other people say, I think O’Sullivan will be safe against Liang.

The truth is that although we keep hearing how ‘open’ snooker is these days, it is very likely that the world title will be won by one of the usual suspects.

The fun lies in finding out which one...


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[gettingbetter]

Nice read once again. And your colour allocation seems spotted well. (Pun intended)

I guess winning the WC as your first ranking event would be a shock to most snooker followers as it was when Dott won it.

Where would people place Dott (2006), Murphy (2005), Johnson (1986) and Griffiths (1979) in the colours?

Dott: I'd place him in the brown or blue rank. Not a journeyman, been in the 16 for a number of years and did make it deep into numerous tournaments previously. Other than his tactical game, he didn't and even now (and even then - I think in the 2006 final his high break was 68) have the break-building game to seriously compete. Probably place him as a blue.

Murphy: before I really got into snooker, I thought that Murphy's feats winning in 2005 wasn't a big deal. But analysing the 2005 WC, it actually was. I remember a post on the Snooker Lounge asking the biggest suprise in snooker history and I voted Murphy winning in 2005. Many other people said it wasn't such a suprise as Murphy was always destined for the top. But if Luca Brecel won next year, it still would be a suprise to me. I think Murphy circa 2005 would be placed on the bualk line - green. Not only did he have to qualify, but he had to play two qualifying games. I don't many people consider someone in the 33-48 bracket as likely to go past the first round let alone win the title.

I wouldn't be able to comment on Johnson and Griffiths.

[hotpot]

Williams and Selby are in the black for me .

[Looki]

I'd put M. Holt down to yellow or green, I can't see him winning WC or any other tournament, ever.

[Odrl]

I personally wouldn't consider it a shock if Marco Fu won. It would be a surprise, especially considering his form in the last year, but he is a former Grand Prix champion, UK finalist, and WC semi-finalist. I would say he should be in the "blue" group.

We could have discussion whether the likes of Liang, Cope or Dott should be lower as well, or which players should be pink or black, but the one player that seems out of his place in the blue group is Ryan Day. I could see someone like Fu having a brilliant championship and getting through a tough draw, but I just can't see Day beating the likes of Robertson, Higgins or Murphy at the business end of the World Championship.

As for your question gettingbetter...

I think Dott was definitely a "blue". He was comfortably in the top16 at the time, a WC finalist two years previously, and had a couple of ranking finals to his name. He lost to Hendry in the 2005 Malta Cup final a year before his WC win. I certainly considered him as an outside bet at the time. It was a bit of a surprise to see him win, but in no way a shock.

I think Murphy was probably a "brown" in 2005. He was always regarded as someone who could be successful at some point, but perhaps not quite as early as that championship. Although he did appear in the semi-finals of the British Open earlier in the season. It was about as surprising as Ricky Walden winning the 2008 Shanghai Masters, perhaps slightly more because the WC had not been won by an outsider for some time.

I also can't comment on Griffiths or Johnson.

[wildJONESEYE]

Williams and Selby are in the black for me .

i feel people are getting carried away with williams in china....

the expectation level has gone up quite a bit.... winning in china was the easy bit carrieng it on is the hard part..

[hotpot]

i feel people are getting carried away with williams in china....

the expectation level has gone up quite a bit.... winning in china was the easy bit carrieng it on is the hard part..

Quite right now for the hard part , but if Ding is classed as black on current form then surely Williams has to be as well .

[wildJONESEYE]

Ding has won the UK and played in 2 other finals this season when you consider theres only 6 rankers and hes played in 50% of the finals thats good.

dont know why Robbo at that level id have him on a par with williams shade behind at the moment but you know what we can talk all we want the guy that wins has won 71 frames.