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Ssb - crucible countdown: First round predictions
Overthe next two days I will be previewing all of the first round matches at theBetfred.com World Championship and giving my score predictions (please feelfree to do the same).
It’san intriguing draw, featuring the top 16 against a fascinating bunch ofqualifiers. We have every world champion of the last 20 years. We have three youngdebutants. We have some familiar faces capable of causing upsets.
Hereis what I think of the top half...
JOHNHIGGINS v LIANG WENBO
Higginshas had a poor season by his own high standards. He told me at the launch lastweek that it was quite a simple equation: he hasn’t practised enough.
Higginsexplained that because of the increase in tournaments, when he got home from anevent he didn’t the next day want to be going out of the house again to theclub when he could spend time with his children. He knows he has to manage histime better and is building a snooker room in his house for next season.
Nobodyhas defended the world title since Stephen Hendry did so 16 years ago. Higginsdescribed walking down the Crucible steps on the first morning as “the mostnerve-wracking feeling in snooker.” As Steve Davis once commented: “the firstshock hasn’t happened yet and it could be you.”
ButHiggins is also one of the finest ever world champions, with four titles underhis belt in a very competitive era. He has gone to Sheffield in the past ingood form and lost early.
Liangis a maverick; erratic but capable of brilliance. He withstood a fine comebackfrom Marcus Campbell in the final qualifying round after his 8-2 lead became9-9. They were taken off at that point, I’m sure much to Liang’s relief.
Hecan certainly cause Higgins problems but, the way he plays, leaves plenty ofchances and assuming Higgins has put the work in this last fortnight I would expectthe Scot to prevail, albeit not by much.
PREDICTION:Higgins to win 10-7
STUARTBINGHAM v STEPHEN HENDRY
Binghamfamously beat Hendry 10-7 in the first round 12 years ago when Hendry wasdefending champion. Since then, Hendry has declined as a major force andBingham has become a top 16 player and tournament winner.
Hendryis currently in China undertaking exhibition engagements for a Chinese sponsor.He apparently gets back late on Thursday and plays on Saturday afternoon.
Hewas a shareholder in 110sport, which went bust a year ago, and may have felt itimpossible to turn down this financially lucrative commitment but it isn’tideal preparation and it would have been unthinkable he would have gone toChina the week before the Crucible in his heyday.
Binghamhas not set the world alight since winning the Australian Open last July buthas had to adjust to becoming a father for the first time. He will of course bebang up for the World Championship and, having beaten Hendry when the Scot wasstill a major title contender, shouldn’t fear playing him now he’s beenrelegated from the top 16.
Hendryis still a very capable player. He invariably starts matches well, then hisconcentration wanes. Whether he eventually wins or not depends on whether itreturns.
PREDICTION:Bingham to win 10-6
STEPHENMAGUIRE v LUCA BRECEL
Oneof the most intriguing of all the first rounders as Brecel becomes the youngestplayer ever to compete at the Crucible.
Aftera debut season in which he failed to hit the heights, Brecel was superb lastweek in beating four very experienced players – Ian McCulloch, Barry Pinches,Michael Holt and Mark King – to qualify.
YoungLuca is a fascinating character. He seems able to retreat into his own littleworld, which is ideal for a snooker player.
ButMaguire knows how to put the lad in his place. He’s quietly done well since theturn of the year: winning PTC12, semi-finals of the PTC finals plus runners-upspots in the German Masters and China Open.
Maguire’sonly really had one good Crucible – five years ago when he reached thesemi-finals – but I feel this could be another.
Heshould have no problem ignoring the hype surrounding his opponent. Maguire is astrong match player and particularly good at closing the shop after going50-odd points ahead. He is dangerous when his head is right.
Idon’t think Brecel will be disgraced. I think he will compete well.
ButI also think Maguire will have too much for him.
PREDICTION:Maguire to win 10-6
GRAEMEDOTT v JOE PERRY
Dotthad a bee in his bonnet at the Crucible in 2006 that predictions were alwaysfor his opponent and not him. Well, Dotty, you might want to stop readingnow...
Thetruth is, despite his fine Crucible record (three finals in the last eight years),Dott’s season has not been great and so there is no obvious reason to tip himfor a long run this year, aside from his proven quality in the tournament.
Hewas beaten by Perry at the Crucible four years ago and again in the PTC grandfinals last month. Perry, a world semi-finalist in 2008, seems to be playingwell again and is one of those players with plenty of experience, capable of makingit really tough for anyone.
Thesetwo are evenly matched, but Perry shades it for me.
PREDICTION:Perry to win 10-7
SHAUNMURPHY v JAMIE JONES
Jonesis playing the best snooker of his career. His 10-2 demolition of Ricky Waldenin the final qualifying round was unexpected but well deserved for a player whohas worked really hard this last couple of years.
Jonesseems to understand what quite a few young players don’t: you haven’t made itjust because you’ve turned professional. In fact, this is only the start. Thehard work begins once you get on the tour.
JohnHiggins didn’t play well against him in Galway but I’ve seen many lower rankedplayers have a chance to beat a top star and twitch up. Jones didn’t do this.He clearly has plenty of self belief.
He’llneed all this and more against Murphy, a player of proven quality who won thetitle in 2005 and was runner-up in 2009.
Murphy’sseason has been consistent if not spectacular. He’s another hard worker,another player who treats the game with the utmost respect.
It’sJones’s debut and that has to be a factor. The Crucible is like no other venue.He could be forgiven for making a bad start and this is Murphy’s chance toimpose himself.
Still,it could be close.
PREDICTION:Murphy to win 10-7
STEPHENLEE v ANDREW HIGGINSON
Leeis on a dream run of form. Since the turn of the year he’s won a title, been ina final and reached two semi-finals. He’s playing his best snooker since hereached the Crucible semi-finals in 2003.
Somehave questioned Lee’s stamina over a much longer tournament but his staminahasn’t been a problem these last few months. It is not only form which hasreturned, it is also his belief. He is feeling happy about his game. He’senjoying it again.
Higginsonis more consistent than he’s ever been, a regular qualifier for tournaments.He was a semi-finalist just last month in the PTC finals.
It was Lee who beat him there and Higginson knows he is playing one of the season’s most successful players and willhave to be at the very top of his game to threaten an upset.
PREDICTION:Lee to win 10-5
ALICARTER V MARK DAVIS
Carter’shealth has been a major issue this season and this has led to a deteriorationin both form and confidence.
Heat least won a couple of matches in Beijing last month and has always beendetermined. I’ve no doubt Ali will fight tooth and nail to try and keep his top16 place.
Davisis much improved these last couple of years. I think winning the six reds worldtitle in December 2009 was the catalyst for finding some belief in himselfafter years of what is usually described as ‘journeyman’ status.
Hehasn’t quite made that next step up with either a long run in an event or byclinching a top 16 place, although he has been very close.
Closeis what this match could be, but Carter is the heavier scorer and this may bethe difference.
PREDICTION:Carter to win 10-8
JUDDTRUMP v DOMINIC DALE
Dalecould have beaten Trump at the UK Championship and perhaps would have done hadTrump, trailing 4-2, not had two vital flukes.
Trumpof course grew stronger after coming through the match and won the title. He isfavourite in the betting for the World Championship.
Ilove watching Trump play. His game is based around an audacious potting abilitybut also some sound tactical stuff when he needs to employ it.
Onething Trump needs to guard against is the expectations of others, and theirinfluences too. This was Jimmy White’sAchilles’ heel more than his ‘bottle’.
WorldSnooker, and the media who wished to interview him, were not best pleased thatTrump failed to attend the draw this week after it was announced he would bethere.
It's beneficial to snooker that he appears in photo-shoots and so on but Trump doesn't need to have an image created for him. As Neil Robertson hassaid, why not just let him be himself? Trying to live up to an image brings only distractions.
This is the danger of fame, even of success, although it's a nice problem to have after a tough apprenticeship in the anonymous qualifiers.
There is no textbook on how to deal with suddenly being flavour of the month. So far Trump has dealt with it well. He seems very laid back about it all.
Trump remains a nice, humble young man, very talented, dedicated and absolutelycapable of winning the title. If he did it would be great for snooker, but itisn’t a certainty, as White knows only too well.
PREDICTION:Trump to win 10-6
More...
It’san intriguing draw, featuring the top 16 against a fascinating bunch ofqualifiers. We have every world champion of the last 20 years. We have three youngdebutants. We have some familiar faces capable of causing upsets.
Hereis what I think of the top half...
JOHNHIGGINS v LIANG WENBO
Higginshas had a poor season by his own high standards. He told me at the launch lastweek that it was quite a simple equation: he hasn’t practised enough.
Higginsexplained that because of the increase in tournaments, when he got home from anevent he didn’t the next day want to be going out of the house again to theclub when he could spend time with his children. He knows he has to manage histime better and is building a snooker room in his house for next season.
Nobodyhas defended the world title since Stephen Hendry did so 16 years ago. Higginsdescribed walking down the Crucible steps on the first morning as “the mostnerve-wracking feeling in snooker.” As Steve Davis once commented: “the firstshock hasn’t happened yet and it could be you.”
ButHiggins is also one of the finest ever world champions, with four titles underhis belt in a very competitive era. He has gone to Sheffield in the past ingood form and lost early.
Liangis a maverick; erratic but capable of brilliance. He withstood a fine comebackfrom Marcus Campbell in the final qualifying round after his 8-2 lead became9-9. They were taken off at that point, I’m sure much to Liang’s relief.
Hecan certainly cause Higgins problems but, the way he plays, leaves plenty ofchances and assuming Higgins has put the work in this last fortnight I would expectthe Scot to prevail, albeit not by much.
PREDICTION:Higgins to win 10-7
STUARTBINGHAM v STEPHEN HENDRY
Binghamfamously beat Hendry 10-7 in the first round 12 years ago when Hendry wasdefending champion. Since then, Hendry has declined as a major force andBingham has become a top 16 player and tournament winner.
Hendryis currently in China undertaking exhibition engagements for a Chinese sponsor.He apparently gets back late on Thursday and plays on Saturday afternoon.
Hewas a shareholder in 110sport, which went bust a year ago, and may have felt itimpossible to turn down this financially lucrative commitment but it isn’tideal preparation and it would have been unthinkable he would have gone toChina the week before the Crucible in his heyday.
Binghamhas not set the world alight since winning the Australian Open last July buthas had to adjust to becoming a father for the first time. He will of course bebang up for the World Championship and, having beaten Hendry when the Scot wasstill a major title contender, shouldn’t fear playing him now he’s beenrelegated from the top 16.
Hendryis still a very capable player. He invariably starts matches well, then hisconcentration wanes. Whether he eventually wins or not depends on whether itreturns.
PREDICTION:Bingham to win 10-6
STEPHENMAGUIRE v LUCA BRECEL
Oneof the most intriguing of all the first rounders as Brecel becomes the youngestplayer ever to compete at the Crucible.
Aftera debut season in which he failed to hit the heights, Brecel was superb lastweek in beating four very experienced players – Ian McCulloch, Barry Pinches,Michael Holt and Mark King – to qualify.
YoungLuca is a fascinating character. He seems able to retreat into his own littleworld, which is ideal for a snooker player.
ButMaguire knows how to put the lad in his place. He’s quietly done well since theturn of the year: winning PTC12, semi-finals of the PTC finals plus runners-upspots in the German Masters and China Open.
Maguire’sonly really had one good Crucible – five years ago when he reached thesemi-finals – but I feel this could be another.
Heshould have no problem ignoring the hype surrounding his opponent. Maguire is astrong match player and particularly good at closing the shop after going50-odd points ahead. He is dangerous when his head is right.
Idon’t think Brecel will be disgraced. I think he will compete well.
ButI also think Maguire will have too much for him.
PREDICTION:Maguire to win 10-6
GRAEMEDOTT v JOE PERRY
Dotthad a bee in his bonnet at the Crucible in 2006 that predictions were alwaysfor his opponent and not him. Well, Dotty, you might want to stop readingnow...
Thetruth is, despite his fine Crucible record (three finals in the last eight years),Dott’s season has not been great and so there is no obvious reason to tip himfor a long run this year, aside from his proven quality in the tournament.
Hewas beaten by Perry at the Crucible four years ago and again in the PTC grandfinals last month. Perry, a world semi-finalist in 2008, seems to be playingwell again and is one of those players with plenty of experience, capable of makingit really tough for anyone.
Thesetwo are evenly matched, but Perry shades it for me.
PREDICTION:Perry to win 10-7
SHAUNMURPHY v JAMIE JONES
Jonesis playing the best snooker of his career. His 10-2 demolition of Ricky Waldenin the final qualifying round was unexpected but well deserved for a player whohas worked really hard this last couple of years.
Jonesseems to understand what quite a few young players don’t: you haven’t made itjust because you’ve turned professional. In fact, this is only the start. Thehard work begins once you get on the tour.
JohnHiggins didn’t play well against him in Galway but I’ve seen many lower rankedplayers have a chance to beat a top star and twitch up. Jones didn’t do this.He clearly has plenty of self belief.
He’llneed all this and more against Murphy, a player of proven quality who won thetitle in 2005 and was runner-up in 2009.
Murphy’sseason has been consistent if not spectacular. He’s another hard worker,another player who treats the game with the utmost respect.
It’sJones’s debut and that has to be a factor. The Crucible is like no other venue.He could be forgiven for making a bad start and this is Murphy’s chance toimpose himself.
Still,it could be close.
PREDICTION:Murphy to win 10-7
STEPHENLEE v ANDREW HIGGINSON
Leeis on a dream run of form. Since the turn of the year he’s won a title, been ina final and reached two semi-finals. He’s playing his best snooker since hereached the Crucible semi-finals in 2003.
Somehave questioned Lee’s stamina over a much longer tournament but his staminahasn’t been a problem these last few months. It is not only form which hasreturned, it is also his belief. He is feeling happy about his game. He’senjoying it again.
Higginsonis more consistent than he’s ever been, a regular qualifier for tournaments.He was a semi-finalist just last month in the PTC finals.
It was Lee who beat him there and Higginson knows he is playing one of the season’s most successful players and willhave to be at the very top of his game to threaten an upset.
PREDICTION:Lee to win 10-5
ALICARTER V MARK DAVIS
Carter’shealth has been a major issue this season and this has led to a deteriorationin both form and confidence.
Heat least won a couple of matches in Beijing last month and has always beendetermined. I’ve no doubt Ali will fight tooth and nail to try and keep his top16 place.
Davisis much improved these last couple of years. I think winning the six reds worldtitle in December 2009 was the catalyst for finding some belief in himselfafter years of what is usually described as ‘journeyman’ status.
Hehasn’t quite made that next step up with either a long run in an event or byclinching a top 16 place, although he has been very close.
Closeis what this match could be, but Carter is the heavier scorer and this may bethe difference.
PREDICTION:Carter to win 10-8
JUDDTRUMP v DOMINIC DALE
Dalecould have beaten Trump at the UK Championship and perhaps would have done hadTrump, trailing 4-2, not had two vital flukes.
Trumpof course grew stronger after coming through the match and won the title. He isfavourite in the betting for the World Championship.
Ilove watching Trump play. His game is based around an audacious potting abilitybut also some sound tactical stuff when he needs to employ it.
Onething Trump needs to guard against is the expectations of others, and theirinfluences too. This was Jimmy White’sAchilles’ heel more than his ‘bottle’.
WorldSnooker, and the media who wished to interview him, were not best pleased thatTrump failed to attend the draw this week after it was announced he would bethere.
It's beneficial to snooker that he appears in photo-shoots and so on but Trump doesn't need to have an image created for him. As Neil Robertson hassaid, why not just let him be himself? Trying to live up to an image brings only distractions.
This is the danger of fame, even of success, although it's a nice problem to have after a tough apprenticeship in the anonymous qualifiers.
There is no textbook on how to deal with suddenly being flavour of the month. So far Trump has dealt with it well. He seems very laid back about it all.
Trump remains a nice, humble young man, very talented, dedicated and absolutelycapable of winning the title. If he did it would be great for snooker, but itisn’t a certainty, as White knows only too well.
PREDICTION:Trump to win 10-6
More...