2018 World Championship

[vilkrang]

Allen, Higgins, Ding and Carter are my picks for the semis.

[Odrl]

I have mixed feelings about the line-up. It's great that we have eight very capable players for once, without anyone that is just here to make up the numbers. It should ensure we see some good and closely-fought matches at the business end of this tournament. It's also nice that there is a chance for a new winner this year, or perhaps a previous champion who hasn't won it in a while. On the other hand, the average age of the quarter-finalists is 35 years, with the majority of the players either in their late 30s or their early 40s. That's a little concerning for me...

I won't go into too much detail on this occasion, you can find my predictions in the prediction thread. :smile:

I'll just say that Wilson-Allen is the match I'm looking forward to the most, as I think it's the most evenly matched of the four, and they've given us a couple of nice matches in the past. Perfect pairing for a best-of-25 match really, almost guaranteed to be interesting all the way, with potential for a few momentum swings along the way. :smile:

Not sure which one I would pick next... Ding-Hawkins perhaps. I think Ding is clearly the better player, and he's also played the better snooker in this tournament so far, but as it's been mentioned Hawkins has beaten him on the big stage before. Hawkins has that interesting habit of getting involved in some really close matches, regardless of how good his opponent is. Sometimes he just comes out of nowhere and plays almost perfect snooker, so I don't think Ding is a certainty here. I do think he is the favourite though.

Higgins-Trump is supposed to be the most exciting pairing here, when you take the status of the two players into account. I have a feeling most people think Higgins will be too strong here though, and I have my doubts about Trump as well... Unlike most people, I actually don't think he has any particular mental weakness that would prevent him from winning this title if he plays well, I just don't think he is in particularly good form at this point in time. His first two matches were one big struggle, and he only played well yesterday after he avoided going 10-8 behind, which I thought was a little lucky. He'll have to raise his game to what it was in the Shanghai Masters to have a chance here, in my opinion.

Williams-Carter is perhaps the least interesting for me, but still quite a good prospect. If both players repeat their previous performances in this tournament, I actually think Carter is a comfortable favourite. But at the same time, I think the match against O'Sullivan almost felt like a final for him, and I doubt he has much left at this point. The opposite could be true for Williams, I think the first two matches were just a warm-up for him, and he could start playing his best stuff now.

We'll see... :smile:

[JimMalone]

Nice analysis Jim

Thanks. You're welcome.

[JimMalone]

I highly doubt you will get 4 very close matches, there has never been 4 quarter finals at the Crucible where all the losers have gained 10 or more frames. There has been 3 times where the 4 losing quarter finalists all failed to get to 10 frames.

I also think there will probably at least one clearer match. But as prospects all of those four matches could go either way on paper and COULD be incredibly close. I went back and forth with my pick in the Allen - Wilson match.

[Dark]

I don't see why the personality or behaviour of a player away from the table should interfere with enjoyment of watching the best snooker possible being played. If a player has not done anything bad enough for them to be kept away from the table due to punishment for their behaviour then it is irrelevant to me.

[richiet]

Why would you not want the best players in the world doing well at the World Championships?

O'Sullivan is contradicting attention seeker. When he wins he's all "I just love playing snooker" and when he loses he's "snooker is boring". A great player but not a very nice person.
Selby, again a great player but a bit dull and I'd rather some new players in the final than the same old faces. Besides. Selby obviously is way off being the best player in the world at the moment.

After all the chat about how long ago since the top two seeds made the final it was good to see them both fail to get past the second round.

[Dark]

2009. Allen (16)-Day (8), Higgins (5)-Selby (4), Murphy (3)-Hendry (6), Robertson (10)-Maguire (2)

2009 is also the closest group of quarter finals ever at the Crucible

[Dark]

A great line up, no Selby and O'Sullivan

Why would you not want the best players in the world doing well at the World Championships?

[Dark]

double post

[Dark]

It makes things more interesting. I expect four very close and exciting matches.

I highly doubt you will get 4 very close matches, there has never been 4 quarter finals at the Crucible where all the losers have gained 10 or more frames. There has been 3 times where the 4 losing quarter finalists all failed to get to 10 frames.

[peterpackage]

Nice analysis Jim

my picks (with no analysis)

Allen
Higgins
Ding
Carter

I really want a Trump v Ding final but Trump is just not tough enough, tough meaning both mentally and technically, there are cracks under high pressure

I do think this could be Ding's year

[JimMalone]

Actually I could see all four quarterfinals going either way, but I will try to analyze them a bit.


Mark Allen – Kyren Wilson
.............................Mark Allen............Kyren Wilson
World Ranking:...............16........................9
Ranking this season:.......10.........................9

Those stats are misleading though, cause of course Allen also has won the Masters, which reflects neither in ranking titles nor in the ranking.

Head-to-Head:
The H2H including ranking matches and the Masters is 3:2 in favour of Kyren Wilson.
Wilson won their sole meeting at the World Championship, 13-9 in the second round of the 2016 edition. This season, they met twice: Wilson won 6-3 at the World Open, while more importantly Allen won 10-7 in the final of the Masters.

This was actually the quarterfinal I picked before the tournament to take place here. And it’s a highly interesting one. Allen has more firepower, while Wilson has maybe a slight advantage in the all-around game. With Allen one weakness he openly admits are often his long pots. If those go in and he’s in a break, he’s at his best and can beat anybody. So Wilson’s safeties should be key. Allen is pretty good in this department as well, but sometimes he lacks a bit of patience. Wilson needs to get an advantage here, not letting Allen into the balls and then he has to utilise on his own chances. This is where Wilson had problems in the past, but he has developed into a reliable scorer this season as well.

Pick: Really it could be anything, my wild guess is 13-12 to Allen.


John Higgins - Judd Trump
................................John Higgins.........Judd Trump
World Ranking:...............5......................... 4
Ranking this season:.......5......................... 4

Head-to-Head: The H2H including ranking events and the Masters is 7-3 in favour of John Higgins, but more importantly it is 4-0 in matches of at least Best-of-11-distance, including the final of the 2011 World Championship.

If we go by history between these two players, John Higgins should be clear favorite. He won every significant duel and at this point he is still the better player in my eyes. I've stated before that I think consistency and concentration is an issue with the Scotsman in his age as well though. There wasn't much of it to be seen against Jack Lisowski though and he might come well rested into the match against Trump. He will need to play good safety and make the best of his chances, but well, nobody does this mix better than Higgins.

Trump didn't play particularly well so far, but his last session against Ricky Walden was pretty good, especially cause this time he didn't crumble under the pressure. And I think he won't feel much of it against Higgins as well, which will certainly help him. But he must certainly up his game a bit to beat Higgins and can't miss within the balls very much. He will have to take on risks, but he must choose them wisely and this usually is a weakness of Trump. Let's see if his game has grown up. At some point he certainly must have to beat Higgins in a game over a longer distance, right?

Pick: My gut feeling actually tells me that this will be the time that Trump gets his first big win over Higgins, but my head tells me the Scotsman is the logical choice. 13-11 to Higgins.


Ding Junhui – Barry Hawkins
...............................Ding Junhui.........Barry Hawkins
World Ranking: ..............3........................ 6
Ranking this season:.......6 .......................11

Head-to-Head: The H2H including ranking events and the Masters is 5-2 in favour of Barry Hawkins, who also has won their two meetings at the World Championship, though only one of them was in the main event, a 13-7 at the 2013 quarterfinals. I could have included the Champion of Champions, then the H2H would only be 5-4 in favour of Hawkins.

Another intriguing quarterfinal. I think we don’t need to pay much focus to the results of this season here, cause both players are in a fully different shape here than for the majority of the last year. Both are in World Championship Modus, where they had plenty of success in recent times.

Ding played tremendously in his first session against Anthony McGill, but he was far from his best in the second one. His concentration seemed a big gone and I’m not sure if he can afford this against Hawkins as well. But if Ding starts as good as in his last match I don't think Hawkins could catch him.
The Englishman hasn’t played his very best yet, being also sloppy and nervous against Lyu, but it’s likely he will play better against Ding, when he has less pressure.
Both are very similar players in that regard, that they don’t have many flaws in their game. Ding is better in almost any aspect, when he is in form, but Hawkins, who previously registered wins over Mark Selby, Ronnie O’Sullivan and Neil Robertson (the old Neil Robertson that was) at the Crucible has shown, he can beat anybody in Sheffield, when he finds his game. He finds it difficult to follow up his big wins with another one, but this would be his first at this year’s edition anyways.
The biggest weakness both possess is probably mental. Ding sometimes misses quite easy pots, when under pressure (though he has become much better in that regard) and Hawkins does as well.

Pick: I can see this as a clear win for Ding as well as a close match, which both could win. 13-10 to Ding. This is actually the pick I feel most confident about.

Mark Williams – Allister Carter
.................................Mark Williams...............Allister Carter
World Ranking:...................7...................... .........15
Ranking this season:...........3............................... 21

Head-to-Head: The H2H including ranking events and the Masters is 8-3 in favour of Mark Williams, but Carter won their most important and longest match in the quarterfinals of the 2008 UK Championship with 9-8.

A duel between two players who come from the two different sides of spectrum in terms of mind. Mark Williams is probably the most relaxed player on the Tour. He has won all and certainly doesn’t see the need to impress people. He is famous for saying that he doesn’t try to score centuries like other players do, cause “70s are fine enough to win a frame”. After missing last year’s World Championship I sense that this season he still wanted to prove something despite his phlegm. So maybe he has the right balance now? I actually think Williams played better in winter than he has in his first two matches here, but in terms of general abilities I would still take him over Carter clearly.
Ali is the opposite of Mark in that regard, that I think he is often too tense and needs to loosen up a bit. It worked for him very well so far though, beating his nemesis Ronnie O’Sullivan 13-9 and not even faltering, when O’Sullivan tried to spur him. This anger may have helped him, how will he play without it against Williams? Could it even be that Carter will be too loose for once? I doubt it.
Carter impressed me with his long potting and safety play against O’Sullivan. He will need this again against Williams, who is a great long potter himself. Both are good tacticians, though Williams, despite his amazing potting ability sometimes surprises me by being too cautious.
I think key to this duel might be, who makes the best out of his chances. Both tend to lose position sometimes and who limits these situations and is able to win frames with high breaks might have an advantage here.

Pick: I wouldn't be surprised if Carter manages another upset, but I go with whom I think is the better player. 13-9 to Williams.

[Rane]

2009. Allen (16)-Day (8), Higgins (5)-Selby (4), Murphy (3)-Hendry (6), Robertson (10)-Maguire (2)

Thank you for doing the research. I thought it was much longer time ago. If we could have just one match equallling the Higgins - Selby match it would be great. That´s one of the best matches I´ve ever seen.

[bagpiper13579]

Yes I find it very interesting. I think a lot will depend on who´ll find their A-games because it looks very close. And also quite interesting with 8 top 16 players in the quarterfinal. I wonder when that happened last time.

2009. Allen (16)-Day (8), Higgins (5)-Selby (4), Murphy (3)-Hendry (6), Robertson (10)-Maguire (2)

[Rane]

Quite the quarter-final lineup. All ranked in the top 16. It wouldn't be a complete shock if any of the eight won the title.

Higgins - 4 time champion
Williams - 2 time champion
Carter - 2 time finalist
Hawkins - 1 time finalist
Ding - 1 time finalist
Trump - 1 time finalist
Allen - 1 time semi-finalist
Wilson - 2 time quarter-finalist

Yes I find it very interesting. I think a lot will depend on who´ll find their A-games because it looks very close. And also quite interesting with 8 top 16 players in the quarterfinal. I wonder when that happened last time.