Tweet
Right, only a couple of days until the championship starts, so I think it's a good time to look at some of the players who have a chance of winning it...
I remember being very excited at this point last year, but the tournament was quite disappointing in the end, with most of the top players showing very little form and going out early. I think it's a similar situation this year, a lot of players playing well at some point this season, and it seems kind of inevitable that a few of them will produce their best at the Crucible. I sure hope they do. :smile:
Anyway, let's start at the other end, with a couple of players we all know have no chance of winning. Starting with Sam Baird perhaps, a player who very rarely appears on TV. He had that great chance to knock Mark Selby out of last year's Welsh Open, but failed to clear the final colours, missing an unbelievable sitter. He lost in the qualifying stages of most events this season, only going through in the best-of-7 format at the Welsh Open, where he reached the last16. Matthew Selt has had a similar season, only reaching one venue prior to the WC, a quarter-final at the Australian Open. That tournament had a somewhat limited field this season, but he reached the same stage last season as well, beating John Higgins and Stephen Hendry on his way. So he is certainly capable of causing problems for the top players, but the World title is obviously out of reach.
I also don't expect Dechawat Poomjaeng to make much of a mark on this tournament. He is a bit older than the previous two players, but not really any more experienced, having turned professional only recently. This will be his third venue appearance this season, but he is yet to go any further than the last32 stage. He had a couple of good wins in qualifying though, so he must be in decent form. Michael White also had a strong win, 10-4 over the very solid Andrew Higginson. Unlike Poomjaeng, he turned professional at a very young age, with a lot of hype surrounding him, but he is now in his 20s and yet to achieve anything notable in the game. He has qualified for the three biggest ranking events this season, obviously enjoying the slightly longer format. I think a win against Mark Williams at the Crucible would be his first-ever on TV, but it's a longshot.
There is another couple of players we can safely rule out. Ben Woollaston won a PTC title last season, and also qualified for the Grand Finals this season, showing good nerve to win a couple of matches in deciders. But he has enjoyed very little success in the standard ranking events throughout his career. Michael Holt is stronger in that respect, with a couple of ranking quarter-finals to his name, as well as two PTC titles. His last quarter-final appearance was in the German Masters this season, so he is definitely capable of winning a match or two, but he is also a master of finding ways to lose matches, and the WC provides plenty of opportunities for that.
Then we have three veterans of the game, similar in age, but finding themselves in different situations in their careers. Marcus Campbell has been playing his best snooker over the last couple of seasons, also taking advantage of the PTC series and winning his first title. This year he has recorded the best result of his career in the major ranking events, reaching the semi-finals of the Wuxi Classic. He was also a quarter-finalist at the recent China Open, and generally appears at the venue stage of events quite regularly now. On the other hand, Alan McManus was a regular presence at events for a long time, but has barely reached any venues since he dropped out of the top16. I think this season has been his best in a long time, the highlight being his quarter-final appearance at the Welsh Open. He has drawn Ding Junhui in the 1st round here, the opponent who beat him 5-0 in the 1st round of the Australian Open, so it's going to be tough for him to make any further progress. Mark King is also back... He appeared at the Crucible as a seeded player a couple of times, but these days he plays the role of a dangerous qualifier, and plays it very well. This season he's had wins over Mark Williams, Stephen Maguire and Ding Junhui, and he's had notable victories over the likes of O'Sullivan and Selby in the longer matches in the past, so no player in the game is really safe against him. But stringing a couple of good wins together is a different matter, and I think these three players ultimately just don't have enough firepower.
Another player we can probably also rule out is Dominic Dale. We haven't seen much of him at the business end of tournaments in recent years... He seems to come across Judd Trump every time he reaches a venue, and it usually ends badly for him, with Trump either fluking his way through the match or just having a bit more nerve when it really matters. It will be interesting to see how it goes here, but I can't see Dale seriously challenging for the title, even if he gets past Trump. Mark Davis is kind of hard to place, but I think I would rule him out as well. He was one of the best players in the first half of the season, reaching three ranking semi-finals and beating some class players along the way. He kind of struggled after the new year, losing in the qualifiers of both tournaments that required top16 players to play an extra match, and dropping out of the top16 as a result. The thing with him is, he doesn't really have a major weakness when he's playing well. He scores very strongly, doesn't play anything stupid and doesn't really bottle it, but at the end of the day, he hasn't won any titles, and it's hard to see him starting with the biggest tournament in the game at the age of 40.
It's nice to see Robert Milkins back at the Crucible. He is another player who has been playing very well recently, achieving his highest-ever position in the rankings and establishing himself as one of the trickiest qualifiers to draw. He is extremely dangerous in fluent attacking games, he can go on a run of quick and strong scoring, but that's pretty much as far as his game goes. He doesn't really have a history of battling through scrappy matches, and he ultimately lacks that extra bit of class when facing a top player in form. Speaking of fluent attacking players, they don't get any more attacking than Martin Gould. Some of the performances he's produced over the last couple of seasons have been top notch, but they never seem to come at the right time for him. He finally managed to win a PTC title earlier this season, but other than that, he's only won a couple of uninspired events that don't really impress me. Obviously he could do with a stronger tactical game, in terms of both safety and shot selection, but that doesn't mean he can't still have a decent run. After all, Shaun Murphy won the World title playing a similar game. But Murphy also had that essential ability to raise his game when it mattered the most and play his best under pressure. Unfortunately, it's the opposite for Gould, and even worse for him is the fact Murphy is his 1st round opponent here, an opponent Gould just can't seem to beat. I think Jack Lisowski is a similar case... He's had some impressive and some less impressive results this season. On one hand, he struggled in the qualifying for the major events in the first half of the season, losing against fairly underwhelming opponents such as Wasley and Burns, and failing to move up the rankings as a result. On the other hand, he played well in the PTC series, recording a couple of wins against Trump and Selby. I guess the highlight of his season is his quarter-final appearance at the recent China Open, the first time he has really impressed with any of his performances on TV. His 1st round win over Trump was a great display of attacking snooker, but of course he won't always be allowed to stay in his comfort zone like that. I think Trump played something like three safety shots in the entire match, and bad ones at that, while Lisowski probably played even fewer than that. The fluency was gone in the next two matches, and he went back to his unfortunate habit of wasting chances in the quarter-final against Murphy, which is a big problem in his game under pressure. There are a lot of comparisons with Trump's breakthrough two years ago, but of course Trump won the China Open on that occasion, and the question of whether he could win the WC was pretty legitimate. For Lisowski, it was his first decent run in any major tournament, and I think he needs a couple more to really establish himself as a contender for titles. He played strongly to qualify for this tournament though, so it will be interesting to see how well he plays at the Crucible.
That only leaves the players that, in my opinion, have at least an outside chance of challenging for this title. Where to begin? With Matthew Stevens perhaps, a player who hasn't won a major title in a decade, but always seems to play well at the Crucible. He has now been back in the top16 or at least somewhere near it for a couple of seasons, but I think it's the first time in a while that he is looking like an actual danger, rather than just someone who stays around that spot with an occasional quarter-final and a couple of last16 appearances. His semi-final appearance in this tournament last year was his first in seven years, and he was able to build on that this season with his first ranking final in a while as well. Having said that, I don't remember any particular performance that was really world class, if you compare it with the way Allen and Maguire played to win tournaments for example, or even Hawkins for that matter. On top of that, there is always the question of bottle with Stevens. He couldn't quite win the World title when he was playing his best snooker, so it would be quite an achievement to win it now. His 1st round match against Marco Fu could be a good one though, as they've already played each other a couple of times this season. I think this is probably Fu's most consistent season ever, or at least in the time I've been closely following snooker. He usually plays one or two good tournaments a season, along with a series of underwhelming early exits, particularly against lower-ranked players. But this season he has routinely found himself in the 2nd round of tournaments, along with a couple of even deeper runs. The highlight of course was his run to the final of the German Masters. When on form, he is the complete player. He is one of the best scorers in the game, his tactics are good, and he has that great ability to raise his game against the top players. He is a former finalist of both the UK Championship and the Masters, as well as a semi-finalist of the World Championship. But the thing with him is, it always seems to go wrong at some point. He lost 10-3 to Stevens in the 1st round last year, and he is one of those players who can lose a match with a session to spare at any time. Which brings us to Graeme Dott, who had one of those bad matches in last year's championship, losing 10-1 to Joe Perry. He has a similar story to Stevens in many ways... He too had a major crisis a couple of seasons ago, battling with depression and an awkward wrist injury, and dropping down the rankings as a result. He came back strongly, playing some of his best snooker to reach another World final in 2010, but unfortunately he hasn't really played to that standard since. His best result of the season came at the Masters, where he reached the semi-finals, before losing to Mark Selby in a real battle. He plays with a pretty fast tempo these days, especially in the safety exchanges, and he doesn't really seem to enjoy the scrappy matches anymore. Perhaps he never did, but he still played them well. Another problem for him could be that his recent record against some of the players who are likely to feature at the business end of this tournament isn't that great. Selby and Robertson in particular seem to enjoy a lot of success against him. They are in the opposite half here, but Murphy is next to him in the draw, and he is another player who has already beaten him a couple of times this season. Not to mention a nasty opening opponent in Peter Ebdon.
Now, let's have a look at a couple of players who have won major events this season... Ricky Walden won the opening event of the season, the Wuxi Classic. It was the second time he won a ranking event early in the season, and his second in China as well. His results in the Far East events are generally better than his British ones, he reached two more "Chinese" quarter-finals, at the International Championship and the World Open. As far as the biggest tournaments are concerned, he did have a run to the semi-finals of the UK Championship last season, but the WC hasn't been a great tournament for him in the past. In fact, he has never been past the 1st round. His game is quite inconsistent, sometimes very fluent, other times he can't seem to put anything together, and it's hard to see him not struggling in a session or two in a tournament like the WC. Barry Hawkins also doesn't have a brilliant record at the Crucible, losing in the 1st round for five years in a row, before finally reaching the 2nd round in the last two years. He won the second major ranking event of the season, the Australian Open, playing some brilliant snooker. A lot of the top players were missing that week, but I'm not sure anyone would have beaten Hawkins in any case, as he played one-visit snooker for most of the tournament, including three centuries in his convincing win over Peter Ebdon in the final. I kind of expected him to fade after that, like many surprising winners or finalists in recent times, but he has remained present as a strong top16 player for the rest of the season. He had to play a couple of tournaments as an unseeded player, and had some bad luck with the draws, meeting the likes of Trump, Selby and Ding in 1st rounds, but he did the best he could. He played another strong tournament in Germany, adding another semi-final appearance to his record. Can he make it three strong ones here? Possibly, but he just might lack that extra bit of class and experience to go all the way.
Peter Ebdon certainly doesn't lack any experience, making his 22nd consecutive appearance at the Crucible. We haven't seen much of him lately, as he has been struggling in the qualifiers, losing before the TV stage on a couple of occasions. But the season hasn't been all bad for Ebdon. He played well early on, reaching the final in Australia with wins over some good players, and he also reached the semi-finals of the International Championship, where he was outclassed by Judd Trump. His last tournament win was only a year ago, so he is clearly still a very dangerous player. His Crucible record over the years is strong, but the last couple of years have been a struggle, with four 1st round exits in a row now. I think he is one of the toughest players to predict, you never know when he might play a really good tournament. He doesn't have a weakness when he is on form, but at 42 years of age, form obviously comes and goes. Mark Williams certainly can't be proud of his form this season. He reached two ranking finals at the start of last season, lost them both, and hasn't really looked dangerous since. He was arguably one of the favourites in the last three World Championships, but not this time. At least I can't find anything to justify that. His best result this season is a semi-final at the Shanghai Masters early in the season, but unfortunately he followed it with some dreadful play and a bunch of early exits. He looked better at the China Open, reaching his first quarter-final in a while, but even then he played a poor match against Selby and was beaten convincingly. Could his form be coming back at the right time? Possibly, but I wouldn't bet on it. I haven't been too impressed with his approach to matches and tournaments recently. Being laid back is one thing, but Williams often gives the impression that he can't really be bothered, and for all his experience, his shot selection is no better than Trump's or Gould's these days. He still looks strong when it's going for him, but when it's not, he just seems content to lose. He's had some bad luck with draws in recent years, coming across an in-form O'Sullivan a couple of times. He is in the other half this year, but he could meet another bogey player in Stephen Maguire in the 2nd round here.
It will be very interesting to see how Stuart Bingham plays here. There is no doubt he has been one of the best players of the season. He won his first ranking title last season, but in many ways this season has been an even stronger one for him. He started with a ranking final at the Wuxi Classic, followed it with two PTC titles, also in Asia, then added the Premier League as well. I expected him to fade after the new year, but he produced another good run at the Welsh Open, reaching his second ranking final of the season. He wasn't that far off winning it either, Stephen Maguire just coming good in the end to win in a deciding frame. Bingham has now firmly established himself as one of the top ten or twelve players in the world, and you kind of expect to see him in the 2nd round or the quarter-finals of every major tournament. He has done it in style as well, playing a game similar to the other top players, one-visit stuff when he is on form and no freezing up in the big occasions. Well, with an occasional exception anyway, such as losing against Selby at the Masters from 5-1 up, despite having a bunch of chances to close out the match. He doesn't really have an obvious weakness, so I think he could definitely have a good run here. But perhaps the fact that he has never played in the one-table setup at the Crucible, or even the quarter-finals for that matter, just might come into play when it really matters.
That leaves us with the ten players who, in my opinion, have the most realistic chance of winning this title...
The order is pretty random, but maybe Shaun Murphy would be a good player to start with. He has picked up a few decent titles in recent seasons, such as the PTC Finals, the Brazil Masters, the Wuxi Classic or the Premier League, but if I was a fan of his, I would be pretty disappointed. His last major title, with matches of at least medium length, was the 2008 UK Championship, four and a half years ago, even though Murphy is supposed to be in his absolute prime at this point. Looking at players around him in the rankings, no one has been waiting for a major title for nearly as long, not since Maguire won the Welsh Open anyway. I think Murphy looks as good as anyone when he's playing well, but he has certainly put in some mediocre performances at crucial times in recent seasons. He played strongly during the week at the Masters last season, only for his form to desert him in the final. He struggled against Robertson in the semi-final of the International Championship, not really putting anything together. The UK final was a struggle as well, as nothing seemed to be going for him. Even his most recent match, the semi-final at the China Open against Selby, was very poor. It's one thing to scrape through a couple of rounds and lose to a player who is really playing well, but Murphy is playing well to reach the later stages of events, so it must be frustrating for him when he throws it away. Having said all that, he still finds himself on most people's list of ten or so contenders for this title. I guess you can't really criticize the man's consistency. He has appeared in at least the quarter-finals of six out of the nine major ranking events this season, and reached the semi-finals of the Masters as well. His battling qualities have never been in question either. His comeback from 8-4 down against Carter in the semi-final of the UK Championship was one of the best this season, and he did it in style too, going for his shots and mostly getting them. He is as dangerous as anyone when he plays like that, and with his record at the Crucible, you can't really rule him out. He also has the patience and the mental strength to last the 17 days. The fact that he's won it before could also be an advantage over some of his rivals, because he isn't really in a position where time is running out for him, like Maguire or Selby for example. With a couple of players he has a good record against next to him in the draw, I wouldn't be surprised to see him go far here.
Ding Junhui is another player who hasn't won a "standard" ranking event this season. He played pretty poorly before the new year, failing to reach the quarter-finals of any major event. His form certainly improved in the second half of the season, although he still struggled to make progress in certain tournaments, coming up against the likes of Robertson and Selby in good form early on. The fact that half of the tournaments are held in China now seems to work against him, as China seems to be his favourite place for early exits. He often seems to start matches very slowly, finding himself a couple of frames behind, having to battle to get back into the match. On a positive note, his willingness to actually fight for wins is pretty good these days. It's interesting, the two most recent notable titles he's won have both included short matches, and he played pretty well in the Welsh Open this season as well, looking pretty comfortable in the best-of-7 format. The highlight of his season has obviously been his win in the PTC Finals, where he played as well as anyone has played in any tournament this season. He seemed to make a century every other frame, with a maximum thrown in, and he produced an excellent comeback against Robertson in the final to win from 3-0 down. It will be interesting to see how well he plays at the Crucible, particularly after his 1st round defeat to Ryan Day in both the WC and the UK in 2012. His record at the WC is pretty mediocre for a top player... The only time he really played well was 2011, when he lost to Trump in the semi-finals, but at least he has the experience of having played in the one-table setup. There is certainly no weakness in his technical ability to suggest he can't win this title. His mental strength is more suspect, but he has produced a number of strong performances under pressure in the past, and as long as he is willing to fight for it, he should be fine. He finds himself in the toughest part of the draw, but that was always going to be the case, since it's mainly his fault. It's the fact that he is only the 10th seed that puts him up against a top8 player as early as the 2nd round. Will he be up for the challenge?
Mark Allen comes to the World Championship as a top8 seed for the first time, so in a way expected to still be there at the quarter-final stage, but he has the bad luck to fall into Ding's part of the draw. He's had a bit of bad luck all season, paying well in tournaments, but coming up against the likes of Trump, Robertson and Ding in the early rounds. He is the opposite of Murphy is some ways, we haven't seen that much of him past the 2nd round of tournaments, but he managed to capitalize on his good form with a ranking title at the World Open. It was surely one of the best performances of the season, as he only dropped eleven frames in the entire tournament. It wasn't one-visit stuff all week, but he certainly raised his game at the business end, particularly in the semi-final against John Higgins. His top game is pretty tough to play against... He can force scoring chances with good potting from distance, he scores very heavily, and he handles the pressure very well. He also doesn't really give up when he goes a couple of frames behind. Like Murphy, he seems to keep the confidence in his own ability and just goes for it, which makes him very dangerous when his back is to the wall. These are exactly the kind of attributes you need to win the World title. It's tough to find many negatives with him... I guess he isn't known as a great tactician, but to be fair, I can't think of many memorable defeats where I thought his poor tactics were the reason. He doesn't really seem to get sucked into too much tactics when he plays well. Consistency is another problem, he can have games like the one against Cao Yupeng last year, when it's not going for him, and he doesn't really have a strong B-game to scrape through. Then there is the tricky draw, which means he will have to be somewhere near his best early on, so no time to play himself into the tournament. And ultimately, there are a couple of players who play a similar type of game just as well, and he just came up a frame or two short at times this season.
Allister Carter surely has a decent chance as well. He's had his share of struggles this season... He's had a couple of 1st round exits after poor performances, he had to withdraw from the World Open because of his disease, and of course he had that crushing defeat against Murphy in the semi-final of the UK Championship. But he also had his moment of glory, winning his third ranking title in Germany. It will be interesting to see how he approaches this championship. He reached the World final last year with an extremely disciplined, rather defensive performance, but we haven't seen much of that from him this season, at least not to the same extreme. The problem that immediately stands out for him is his potential 2nd round match against Ronnie O'Sullivan here. This is an opponent Carter has never beaten, at least not in a match of any importance, and it's not as if they haven't met much over the years. I really don't have an answer for this one... There is the mental block he has every time he plays O'Sullivan, as well as the fact that O'Sullivan is just a strong player whose game doesn't really suit Carter. But he is at an age when he can't play well all the time and Carter just needs to exploit any weakness he can find. Then there is the matter of beating everyone else as well. He reached the final two times in the last five years, with another semi-final in between, so he clearly shouldn't be underestimated. He is one of the strongest long-potters in the game, a great scorer on his day, and a very determined characted. If he brings the discipline and composure to the table again, he will be very difficult to stop.
The same could be said of Stephen Maguire, a player who finally managed to add another ranking title to his legacy this season, his first in five years. He had kept himself near the top of the rankings in those five years, mostly with a series of semi-final and quarter-final appearances, but this season he failed to progress beyond the 2nd round of any major tournament until February. And he can't really say he was losing to players who were going on to win tournaments at the time. He is the oldest of the big four players of his generation, and one of the two who haven't won the World title yet, so I think he is always under pressure at the Crucible. He once said he wanted to win it before he turned 30. Well, that ship has sailed... There were a couple of years when he was looking really good. He led John Higgins 14-10 in the semi-final in 2007, but lost it in the final session. He was the favourite to meet Ronnie O'Sullivan in the final in 2008 after a tremendous performance in his first two matches, but he got complacent and lost in the quarter-final against Joe Perry. He looked good again last year, but inexplicably ran out of steam and didn't really challenge Carter in the semi-final. We all know his problems... He gets angry at himself when he makes a mistake or two. I'm sure most players do, but Maguire really takes it to the extreme. He was banging the table against Hendry last year, even though he had a huge lead. Sometimes you just have to battle through it and win ugly. Maguire can do that, as he is actually a pretty good tactician and certainly has the killer instinct when there is a chance to put someone in trouble with a defensive shot. But like O'Sullivan, he has to be in the right frame of mind to play properly. Let's look at some of the positives... His form has improved a lot from February onwards. He played with great heart at the Welsh Open, and whatever you think of over-the-top celebrations, his banging the table after getting over the line showed just how much he wanted and needed it. His good tournaments have come in patches over the years. He reached two ranking finals in the second part of last season, and he managed to play a second good tournament this season as well, reaching the semi-finals of the China Open. It could have been another final, as he just needed one favourable split to beat Neil Robertson. He is one of those players who can hold a high scoring streak for a long time, which makes him extremely dangerous, and it's no surprise he's had some really one-sided victories over the years. This is the first time in a while that he comes the the WC holding a ranking title, so his confidence should be high. Same as with Carter, if he brings his discipline, his composure and his self-control, he is a strong contender.
It's hard to think of John Higgins as just another contender, but for the first time in a while, that's exactly what he is. He missed the first couple of events of the season, then went on to win the Shanghai Masters - the first major event he entered. Unfortunately for him, it was all downhill from there. He lost early in tournaments against the likes of Cao Yupeng, Peter Lines and Ken Doherty. He also lost in the 2nd round of the UK Championship against Mark Davis, after needing a simple colour clearance to win the decider. He wasted a good scoring chance in each of the last two frames against Murphy at the Masters, losing 6-5 as a result. I think that's probably the most worrying thing for him, losing that killer instinct this season and making mistakes at crucial times, rather than raising his game as usual. Even at the recent China Open, he was always in control of his match against Robert Milkins, only to lose 5-4 after failing to take his chances. His record at the Crucible is an interesting one... He reached at least the quarter-finals for eight straight years between 1996 and 2003, but since then, he has either gone out before the quarter-finals or gone on to win the title. And that's why no one will dare to underestimate this man. He won three of the last six World titles, every other year, and the pattern could continue with 2013. He is the most experienced player in the tournament, the most successful in the recent past, the most respected tactician and the best under pressure. He doesn't have a weakness, other than perhaps the inconsistency that gets to everyone at a certain age. He has a positive record against almost every one of his rivals, he even has a strong psychological edge over some of them. I think most people are doubtful about his chances after the season he's had, but I'm sure everyone knows deep down that he could still easily win this championship. He showed he still had it by winning the Shanghai Masters, coming from 7-2 down to beat an in-form Judd Trump. He also showed some form at the World Open, only losing to a great Mark Allen in the semi-finals. He's had his share of underwhelming performances in the past, losing to the likes of Hendry and Davis in recent years, but he also won the title in 2007 and 2009 by playing his B-game for most of the tournament. As long as he has some sort of form, it always takes something special to beat him over a couple of sessions.
It's always tough to limit one's thoughts on Ronnie O'Sullivan to a short paragraph, but I'll give it a shot. Obviously he is the biggest mystery in this year's tournament, as there is nothing to judge his form on. There are many reasons why he could win the World title. Before he took a break from the game, he was the only player to hold two major titles, and he could legitimately be called the best player in the world. There is no reason to think he is a significantly weaker player a year later. He is still the best scorer in the world, always has been, even when he was struggling with other elements of his game. He had no problem with long-potting last year, and he played proper snooker to win the WC, with good shot selection and strong tactics. Perhaps even more importantly, he was disciplined and composed, and he didn't let anything get to him. His reaction after winning the German Masters showed he was still hungry for titles. Having sat out the entire season, it would be easy for him to skip the WC as well, so I suspect we are not likely to see a half-hearted attempt from him. If he gets past Marcus Campbell in the 1st round, which I suspect he will, he will mostly likely play Carter, one of his favourite opponents, and that could allow him to play himself into the tournament and get rid of any rustiness. Of course, there are also reasons why he could struggle to win it. The most basic one perhaps, he has been the title favourite almost every time for many years now, and of course he couldn't always win it. He can't just magically turn it on whenever he likes. Form comes and goes, as with all players, especially as they get older. On top of that, form isn't always the main concern with O'Sullivan. Compared to Higgins, he has a slightly different record at the Crucible in the last decade or so. He very rarely loses early, but he doesn't always win it when he reaches the business end either. A lot of the time it's been one bad session that has cost him. A couple of times it seemed like he was trapped in a session he couldn't really take anything out of, and of course there is no way to stop it and no place to hide at the Crucible. There is also the fact that he has played virtually no competitive snooker for almost a year, so he might need some time to get the edge back. It's certainly possible, as John Higgins proved after coming back from his suspension and immediately winning a couple of events. Speaking of Higgins, I'm sure O'Sullivan won't be pleased to see him in his quarter. While he doesn't have a dramatically poor record against Higgins over the whole of his career, he has still only beaten him once in the last eight years, so I'm sure he will be hoping Higgins goes out before the quarter-finals. As I said, O'Sullivan is the biggest mystery in the tournament, and I'm looking forward to finding out what kind of shape he's in.
That just leaves the final three players... I don't think there is a huge gap between the immediate contenders and the next few this year, but I still think these players deserve to be mentioned separately, for the way they've played all season, and for the fact they are currently fighting for the top sport in the rankings...
Let's start with Judd Trump, the player who won the first really big tournament of the season - the International Championship in early November. His performance in the first part of the season is mainly what makes him a strong contender here. He played very well to win that title, similar to the way he played to win the UK Championship last season. He also reached the final of the Shanghai Masters and got himself in a great position against John Higgins, only to lose 10-9 in the end. Those two finals, along with good performances in the PTCs, got him to the top of the rankings and made him one of the big favourites for the following tournaments. He was playing his signature attacking game, without taking it to the extreme, and he seemed to deal well with being the man to beat. I guess the turning point was that 1st round defeat against Mark Joyce at the UK Championship, when he threw away a good lead and lost in the decider. I'm sure he is not pleased with his results after the new year, losing in the 1st round on a couple of occasions, and only having a good run at the Welsh Open. Most of his defeats followed a similar pattern, he just couldn't put anything together and started taking everything on, trying to force his way back into the match. I mentioned that sort of approach in a positive light earlier with Murphy and Allen, but it doesn't really seem to work for Trump. There is not much wrong in his execution of safety shots, he has matched every one of his opponents in tactical exchanges in the tournaments he's won, his first final against Selby being particularly impressive, but there is no doubt he sometimes reverts back to a more natural style under pressure. For him, that means going for everything, as he prefers to rely on potting his way out of trouble rather than battling through a bad patch with patient and clever play. If he is going to win this championship, one would think the long balls will have to be going in for him, the way they did in 2011. He has succumbed to the pressure in a couple of matches in the past, but he has won just as many, if not more. He has experienced the one-table setup at the Crucible before, he has won the two biggest ranking tournaments outside of the WC, and he has the luxury of being able to play his snooker in peace, now that most eyes are bound to be on Ronnie O'Sullivan. Trump also has a good record against most of his rivals, the exceptions being Higgins and Maguire, and at least the latter is far away in the draw here.
Mark Selby has been the best player of the season so far, winning the two tournaments everyone wanted to win - the UK Championship and the Masters. He became the first player to win these two events back to back since they've been put together on the calendar. He could also become the first player in a decade to win the big three in the same season. The season didn't start all that well for him, as he failed to progress past the 2nd round of any major tournament prior to the UK in December. Honestly, I didn't even think he played all that well in the UK and the Masters, certainly not compared to some other great performances from players this season. There was a lot of fragmented stuff, a real battle at times. But if anyone relishes that type of snooker, it's Selby. Nothing seemed to get to him, not fatigue, not being 5-1 down in matches, not the late-night finishes, not his own struggles with fluency. And not impressive opponents like Neil Robertson or Shaun Murphy either, for that matter. He has reached another final and two quarter-finals since the Masters, so you can't criticize his consistency in the second half of the season. He has the scoring power, the tactical game, the bottle, the consistency, the physical fitness... Everything you need to win the World title. Possible problems? Well, too much good form hasn't always been a good sign for players ahead of the WC. Selby himself lost against Mark King in the 1st round in 2008, after a really good season. He also tends to get involved in a lot of scrappy and intense matches, and while he's handled that brilliantly this season, it has to catch up with him some time. It kind of did in 2010, when he lost to Graeme Dott in the semi-finals, after getting through a tough match against O'Sullivan in the previous round. The tough draw could also be a problem. He is almost guaranteed to meet either Ding or Allen in the quarter-finals, and there are other players who have had memorable wins over him in the past in his quarter, such as Hawkins, Lisowski and King. There is also the fact that he hasn't won a World title yet, and now that he is on the verge of turning 30, he is under pressure to win it sooner rather than later. I'm sure his army of haters will be going mental if he gets anywhere near, and as much as that would amuse me, it's a tough ask. He certainly has a chance though...
And let's conclude with Neil Robertson, the most recent winner of a major event. His season has been similar to Selby's, a couple of early exits in the first few months, but consistently strong performances since. He has appeared in major semi-finals five times this season, reaching the final on three of those occasions (six and four if you count the PTC Finals as well). This is a level of consistency Robertson never had in previous seasons. He is now definitely the complete player, strong scoring and potting mixed with a lot of patience, a lot of heart and great composure under pressure. If anything, his shot selection has been a bit weird at times this season, ranging from very attacking to surprisingly defensive, for no apparent reason. He is also not afraid of anyone. He had poor records against certain players in the past, Murphy and Maguire spring to mind, but he turned those rivalries in his favour. He had avoided Selby in major tournaments for years, but they have come across one another four times this season, and Robertson again turned it around, winning their last two matches after losing the first two. I think he will also like the draw in this tournament. I wouldn't say his half is in any way easier than the other one, but it's filled with strong players Robertson has beaten this season, while most of the players to beat him are in the other half. It's tough to find any weakness with Neil Robertson... Maybe the killer instinct hasn't always been there this season, kind of like Higgins, he lost a couple of matches that he maybe wouldn't have in previous seasons. The final of the International Championship was the first really big one he ever lost, leading 8-6 and losing the last four frames against Judd Trump. He led Selby 4-0 in the quarter-final of the UK Championship and lost 6-4, probably the first time I've seen him lose from a strong position like that. He played great stuff all week at the Masters, only to run out of steam in the final, when it mattered the most. He also bottled the decider against Stuart Bingham at the Welsh Open and lost the final of the PTC Finals 4-3 from 3-0 up. But the thing is, if you are consistently reaching the later stages of tournaments, you are going to lose some big matches. Robertson was knocking on the door all season and got his reward in Beijing. As long as he hasn't peaked too early, he is one of the big favourites for this title.
That's what I think anyway... :smile:
Who do you think will win the World Championship? :wink:
I remember being very excited at this point last year, but the tournament was quite disappointing in the end, with most of the top players showing very little form and going out early. I think it's a similar situation this year, a lot of players playing well at some point this season, and it seems kind of inevitable that a few of them will produce their best at the Crucible. I sure hope they do. :smile:
Anyway, let's start at the other end, with a couple of players we all know have no chance of winning. Starting with Sam Baird perhaps, a player who very rarely appears on TV. He had that great chance to knock Mark Selby out of last year's Welsh Open, but failed to clear the final colours, missing an unbelievable sitter. He lost in the qualifying stages of most events this season, only going through in the best-of-7 format at the Welsh Open, where he reached the last16. Matthew Selt has had a similar season, only reaching one venue prior to the WC, a quarter-final at the Australian Open. That tournament had a somewhat limited field this season, but he reached the same stage last season as well, beating John Higgins and Stephen Hendry on his way. So he is certainly capable of causing problems for the top players, but the World title is obviously out of reach.
I also don't expect Dechawat Poomjaeng to make much of a mark on this tournament. He is a bit older than the previous two players, but not really any more experienced, having turned professional only recently. This will be his third venue appearance this season, but he is yet to go any further than the last32 stage. He had a couple of good wins in qualifying though, so he must be in decent form. Michael White also had a strong win, 10-4 over the very solid Andrew Higginson. Unlike Poomjaeng, he turned professional at a very young age, with a lot of hype surrounding him, but he is now in his 20s and yet to achieve anything notable in the game. He has qualified for the three biggest ranking events this season, obviously enjoying the slightly longer format. I think a win against Mark Williams at the Crucible would be his first-ever on TV, but it's a longshot.
There is another couple of players we can safely rule out. Ben Woollaston won a PTC title last season, and also qualified for the Grand Finals this season, showing good nerve to win a couple of matches in deciders. But he has enjoyed very little success in the standard ranking events throughout his career. Michael Holt is stronger in that respect, with a couple of ranking quarter-finals to his name, as well as two PTC titles. His last quarter-final appearance was in the German Masters this season, so he is definitely capable of winning a match or two, but he is also a master of finding ways to lose matches, and the WC provides plenty of opportunities for that.
Then we have three veterans of the game, similar in age, but finding themselves in different situations in their careers. Marcus Campbell has been playing his best snooker over the last couple of seasons, also taking advantage of the PTC series and winning his first title. This year he has recorded the best result of his career in the major ranking events, reaching the semi-finals of the Wuxi Classic. He was also a quarter-finalist at the recent China Open, and generally appears at the venue stage of events quite regularly now. On the other hand, Alan McManus was a regular presence at events for a long time, but has barely reached any venues since he dropped out of the top16. I think this season has been his best in a long time, the highlight being his quarter-final appearance at the Welsh Open. He has drawn Ding Junhui in the 1st round here, the opponent who beat him 5-0 in the 1st round of the Australian Open, so it's going to be tough for him to make any further progress. Mark King is also back... He appeared at the Crucible as a seeded player a couple of times, but these days he plays the role of a dangerous qualifier, and plays it very well. This season he's had wins over Mark Williams, Stephen Maguire and Ding Junhui, and he's had notable victories over the likes of O'Sullivan and Selby in the longer matches in the past, so no player in the game is really safe against him. But stringing a couple of good wins together is a different matter, and I think these three players ultimately just don't have enough firepower.
Another player we can probably also rule out is Dominic Dale. We haven't seen much of him at the business end of tournaments in recent years... He seems to come across Judd Trump every time he reaches a venue, and it usually ends badly for him, with Trump either fluking his way through the match or just having a bit more nerve when it really matters. It will be interesting to see how it goes here, but I can't see Dale seriously challenging for the title, even if he gets past Trump. Mark Davis is kind of hard to place, but I think I would rule him out as well. He was one of the best players in the first half of the season, reaching three ranking semi-finals and beating some class players along the way. He kind of struggled after the new year, losing in the qualifiers of both tournaments that required top16 players to play an extra match, and dropping out of the top16 as a result. The thing with him is, he doesn't really have a major weakness when he's playing well. He scores very strongly, doesn't play anything stupid and doesn't really bottle it, but at the end of the day, he hasn't won any titles, and it's hard to see him starting with the biggest tournament in the game at the age of 40.
It's nice to see Robert Milkins back at the Crucible. He is another player who has been playing very well recently, achieving his highest-ever position in the rankings and establishing himself as one of the trickiest qualifiers to draw. He is extremely dangerous in fluent attacking games, he can go on a run of quick and strong scoring, but that's pretty much as far as his game goes. He doesn't really have a history of battling through scrappy matches, and he ultimately lacks that extra bit of class when facing a top player in form. Speaking of fluent attacking players, they don't get any more attacking than Martin Gould. Some of the performances he's produced over the last couple of seasons have been top notch, but they never seem to come at the right time for him. He finally managed to win a PTC title earlier this season, but other than that, he's only won a couple of uninspired events that don't really impress me. Obviously he could do with a stronger tactical game, in terms of both safety and shot selection, but that doesn't mean he can't still have a decent run. After all, Shaun Murphy won the World title playing a similar game. But Murphy also had that essential ability to raise his game when it mattered the most and play his best under pressure. Unfortunately, it's the opposite for Gould, and even worse for him is the fact Murphy is his 1st round opponent here, an opponent Gould just can't seem to beat. I think Jack Lisowski is a similar case... He's had some impressive and some less impressive results this season. On one hand, he struggled in the qualifying for the major events in the first half of the season, losing against fairly underwhelming opponents such as Wasley and Burns, and failing to move up the rankings as a result. On the other hand, he played well in the PTC series, recording a couple of wins against Trump and Selby. I guess the highlight of his season is his quarter-final appearance at the recent China Open, the first time he has really impressed with any of his performances on TV. His 1st round win over Trump was a great display of attacking snooker, but of course he won't always be allowed to stay in his comfort zone like that. I think Trump played something like three safety shots in the entire match, and bad ones at that, while Lisowski probably played even fewer than that. The fluency was gone in the next two matches, and he went back to his unfortunate habit of wasting chances in the quarter-final against Murphy, which is a big problem in his game under pressure. There are a lot of comparisons with Trump's breakthrough two years ago, but of course Trump won the China Open on that occasion, and the question of whether he could win the WC was pretty legitimate. For Lisowski, it was his first decent run in any major tournament, and I think he needs a couple more to really establish himself as a contender for titles. He played strongly to qualify for this tournament though, so it will be interesting to see how well he plays at the Crucible.
That only leaves the players that, in my opinion, have at least an outside chance of challenging for this title. Where to begin? With Matthew Stevens perhaps, a player who hasn't won a major title in a decade, but always seems to play well at the Crucible. He has now been back in the top16 or at least somewhere near it for a couple of seasons, but I think it's the first time in a while that he is looking like an actual danger, rather than just someone who stays around that spot with an occasional quarter-final and a couple of last16 appearances. His semi-final appearance in this tournament last year was his first in seven years, and he was able to build on that this season with his first ranking final in a while as well. Having said that, I don't remember any particular performance that was really world class, if you compare it with the way Allen and Maguire played to win tournaments for example, or even Hawkins for that matter. On top of that, there is always the question of bottle with Stevens. He couldn't quite win the World title when he was playing his best snooker, so it would be quite an achievement to win it now. His 1st round match against Marco Fu could be a good one though, as they've already played each other a couple of times this season. I think this is probably Fu's most consistent season ever, or at least in the time I've been closely following snooker. He usually plays one or two good tournaments a season, along with a series of underwhelming early exits, particularly against lower-ranked players. But this season he has routinely found himself in the 2nd round of tournaments, along with a couple of even deeper runs. The highlight of course was his run to the final of the German Masters. When on form, he is the complete player. He is one of the best scorers in the game, his tactics are good, and he has that great ability to raise his game against the top players. He is a former finalist of both the UK Championship and the Masters, as well as a semi-finalist of the World Championship. But the thing with him is, it always seems to go wrong at some point. He lost 10-3 to Stevens in the 1st round last year, and he is one of those players who can lose a match with a session to spare at any time. Which brings us to Graeme Dott, who had one of those bad matches in last year's championship, losing 10-1 to Joe Perry. He has a similar story to Stevens in many ways... He too had a major crisis a couple of seasons ago, battling with depression and an awkward wrist injury, and dropping down the rankings as a result. He came back strongly, playing some of his best snooker to reach another World final in 2010, but unfortunately he hasn't really played to that standard since. His best result of the season came at the Masters, where he reached the semi-finals, before losing to Mark Selby in a real battle. He plays with a pretty fast tempo these days, especially in the safety exchanges, and he doesn't really seem to enjoy the scrappy matches anymore. Perhaps he never did, but he still played them well. Another problem for him could be that his recent record against some of the players who are likely to feature at the business end of this tournament isn't that great. Selby and Robertson in particular seem to enjoy a lot of success against him. They are in the opposite half here, but Murphy is next to him in the draw, and he is another player who has already beaten him a couple of times this season. Not to mention a nasty opening opponent in Peter Ebdon.
Now, let's have a look at a couple of players who have won major events this season... Ricky Walden won the opening event of the season, the Wuxi Classic. It was the second time he won a ranking event early in the season, and his second in China as well. His results in the Far East events are generally better than his British ones, he reached two more "Chinese" quarter-finals, at the International Championship and the World Open. As far as the biggest tournaments are concerned, he did have a run to the semi-finals of the UK Championship last season, but the WC hasn't been a great tournament for him in the past. In fact, he has never been past the 1st round. His game is quite inconsistent, sometimes very fluent, other times he can't seem to put anything together, and it's hard to see him not struggling in a session or two in a tournament like the WC. Barry Hawkins also doesn't have a brilliant record at the Crucible, losing in the 1st round for five years in a row, before finally reaching the 2nd round in the last two years. He won the second major ranking event of the season, the Australian Open, playing some brilliant snooker. A lot of the top players were missing that week, but I'm not sure anyone would have beaten Hawkins in any case, as he played one-visit snooker for most of the tournament, including three centuries in his convincing win over Peter Ebdon in the final. I kind of expected him to fade after that, like many surprising winners or finalists in recent times, but he has remained present as a strong top16 player for the rest of the season. He had to play a couple of tournaments as an unseeded player, and had some bad luck with the draws, meeting the likes of Trump, Selby and Ding in 1st rounds, but he did the best he could. He played another strong tournament in Germany, adding another semi-final appearance to his record. Can he make it three strong ones here? Possibly, but he just might lack that extra bit of class and experience to go all the way.
Peter Ebdon certainly doesn't lack any experience, making his 22nd consecutive appearance at the Crucible. We haven't seen much of him lately, as he has been struggling in the qualifiers, losing before the TV stage on a couple of occasions. But the season hasn't been all bad for Ebdon. He played well early on, reaching the final in Australia with wins over some good players, and he also reached the semi-finals of the International Championship, where he was outclassed by Judd Trump. His last tournament win was only a year ago, so he is clearly still a very dangerous player. His Crucible record over the years is strong, but the last couple of years have been a struggle, with four 1st round exits in a row now. I think he is one of the toughest players to predict, you never know when he might play a really good tournament. He doesn't have a weakness when he is on form, but at 42 years of age, form obviously comes and goes. Mark Williams certainly can't be proud of his form this season. He reached two ranking finals at the start of last season, lost them both, and hasn't really looked dangerous since. He was arguably one of the favourites in the last three World Championships, but not this time. At least I can't find anything to justify that. His best result this season is a semi-final at the Shanghai Masters early in the season, but unfortunately he followed it with some dreadful play and a bunch of early exits. He looked better at the China Open, reaching his first quarter-final in a while, but even then he played a poor match against Selby and was beaten convincingly. Could his form be coming back at the right time? Possibly, but I wouldn't bet on it. I haven't been too impressed with his approach to matches and tournaments recently. Being laid back is one thing, but Williams often gives the impression that he can't really be bothered, and for all his experience, his shot selection is no better than Trump's or Gould's these days. He still looks strong when it's going for him, but when it's not, he just seems content to lose. He's had some bad luck with draws in recent years, coming across an in-form O'Sullivan a couple of times. He is in the other half this year, but he could meet another bogey player in Stephen Maguire in the 2nd round here.
It will be very interesting to see how Stuart Bingham plays here. There is no doubt he has been one of the best players of the season. He won his first ranking title last season, but in many ways this season has been an even stronger one for him. He started with a ranking final at the Wuxi Classic, followed it with two PTC titles, also in Asia, then added the Premier League as well. I expected him to fade after the new year, but he produced another good run at the Welsh Open, reaching his second ranking final of the season. He wasn't that far off winning it either, Stephen Maguire just coming good in the end to win in a deciding frame. Bingham has now firmly established himself as one of the top ten or twelve players in the world, and you kind of expect to see him in the 2nd round or the quarter-finals of every major tournament. He has done it in style as well, playing a game similar to the other top players, one-visit stuff when he is on form and no freezing up in the big occasions. Well, with an occasional exception anyway, such as losing against Selby at the Masters from 5-1 up, despite having a bunch of chances to close out the match. He doesn't really have an obvious weakness, so I think he could definitely have a good run here. But perhaps the fact that he has never played in the one-table setup at the Crucible, or even the quarter-finals for that matter, just might come into play when it really matters.
That leaves us with the ten players who, in my opinion, have the most realistic chance of winning this title...
The order is pretty random, but maybe Shaun Murphy would be a good player to start with. He has picked up a few decent titles in recent seasons, such as the PTC Finals, the Brazil Masters, the Wuxi Classic or the Premier League, but if I was a fan of his, I would be pretty disappointed. His last major title, with matches of at least medium length, was the 2008 UK Championship, four and a half years ago, even though Murphy is supposed to be in his absolute prime at this point. Looking at players around him in the rankings, no one has been waiting for a major title for nearly as long, not since Maguire won the Welsh Open anyway. I think Murphy looks as good as anyone when he's playing well, but he has certainly put in some mediocre performances at crucial times in recent seasons. He played strongly during the week at the Masters last season, only for his form to desert him in the final. He struggled against Robertson in the semi-final of the International Championship, not really putting anything together. The UK final was a struggle as well, as nothing seemed to be going for him. Even his most recent match, the semi-final at the China Open against Selby, was very poor. It's one thing to scrape through a couple of rounds and lose to a player who is really playing well, but Murphy is playing well to reach the later stages of events, so it must be frustrating for him when he throws it away. Having said all that, he still finds himself on most people's list of ten or so contenders for this title. I guess you can't really criticize the man's consistency. He has appeared in at least the quarter-finals of six out of the nine major ranking events this season, and reached the semi-finals of the Masters as well. His battling qualities have never been in question either. His comeback from 8-4 down against Carter in the semi-final of the UK Championship was one of the best this season, and he did it in style too, going for his shots and mostly getting them. He is as dangerous as anyone when he plays like that, and with his record at the Crucible, you can't really rule him out. He also has the patience and the mental strength to last the 17 days. The fact that he's won it before could also be an advantage over some of his rivals, because he isn't really in a position where time is running out for him, like Maguire or Selby for example. With a couple of players he has a good record against next to him in the draw, I wouldn't be surprised to see him go far here.
Ding Junhui is another player who hasn't won a "standard" ranking event this season. He played pretty poorly before the new year, failing to reach the quarter-finals of any major event. His form certainly improved in the second half of the season, although he still struggled to make progress in certain tournaments, coming up against the likes of Robertson and Selby in good form early on. The fact that half of the tournaments are held in China now seems to work against him, as China seems to be his favourite place for early exits. He often seems to start matches very slowly, finding himself a couple of frames behind, having to battle to get back into the match. On a positive note, his willingness to actually fight for wins is pretty good these days. It's interesting, the two most recent notable titles he's won have both included short matches, and he played pretty well in the Welsh Open this season as well, looking pretty comfortable in the best-of-7 format. The highlight of his season has obviously been his win in the PTC Finals, where he played as well as anyone has played in any tournament this season. He seemed to make a century every other frame, with a maximum thrown in, and he produced an excellent comeback against Robertson in the final to win from 3-0 down. It will be interesting to see how well he plays at the Crucible, particularly after his 1st round defeat to Ryan Day in both the WC and the UK in 2012. His record at the WC is pretty mediocre for a top player... The only time he really played well was 2011, when he lost to Trump in the semi-finals, but at least he has the experience of having played in the one-table setup. There is certainly no weakness in his technical ability to suggest he can't win this title. His mental strength is more suspect, but he has produced a number of strong performances under pressure in the past, and as long as he is willing to fight for it, he should be fine. He finds himself in the toughest part of the draw, but that was always going to be the case, since it's mainly his fault. It's the fact that he is only the 10th seed that puts him up against a top8 player as early as the 2nd round. Will he be up for the challenge?
Mark Allen comes to the World Championship as a top8 seed for the first time, so in a way expected to still be there at the quarter-final stage, but he has the bad luck to fall into Ding's part of the draw. He's had a bit of bad luck all season, paying well in tournaments, but coming up against the likes of Trump, Robertson and Ding in the early rounds. He is the opposite of Murphy is some ways, we haven't seen that much of him past the 2nd round of tournaments, but he managed to capitalize on his good form with a ranking title at the World Open. It was surely one of the best performances of the season, as he only dropped eleven frames in the entire tournament. It wasn't one-visit stuff all week, but he certainly raised his game at the business end, particularly in the semi-final against John Higgins. His top game is pretty tough to play against... He can force scoring chances with good potting from distance, he scores very heavily, and he handles the pressure very well. He also doesn't really give up when he goes a couple of frames behind. Like Murphy, he seems to keep the confidence in his own ability and just goes for it, which makes him very dangerous when his back is to the wall. These are exactly the kind of attributes you need to win the World title. It's tough to find many negatives with him... I guess he isn't known as a great tactician, but to be fair, I can't think of many memorable defeats where I thought his poor tactics were the reason. He doesn't really seem to get sucked into too much tactics when he plays well. Consistency is another problem, he can have games like the one against Cao Yupeng last year, when it's not going for him, and he doesn't really have a strong B-game to scrape through. Then there is the tricky draw, which means he will have to be somewhere near his best early on, so no time to play himself into the tournament. And ultimately, there are a couple of players who play a similar type of game just as well, and he just came up a frame or two short at times this season.
Allister Carter surely has a decent chance as well. He's had his share of struggles this season... He's had a couple of 1st round exits after poor performances, he had to withdraw from the World Open because of his disease, and of course he had that crushing defeat against Murphy in the semi-final of the UK Championship. But he also had his moment of glory, winning his third ranking title in Germany. It will be interesting to see how he approaches this championship. He reached the World final last year with an extremely disciplined, rather defensive performance, but we haven't seen much of that from him this season, at least not to the same extreme. The problem that immediately stands out for him is his potential 2nd round match against Ronnie O'Sullivan here. This is an opponent Carter has never beaten, at least not in a match of any importance, and it's not as if they haven't met much over the years. I really don't have an answer for this one... There is the mental block he has every time he plays O'Sullivan, as well as the fact that O'Sullivan is just a strong player whose game doesn't really suit Carter. But he is at an age when he can't play well all the time and Carter just needs to exploit any weakness he can find. Then there is the matter of beating everyone else as well. He reached the final two times in the last five years, with another semi-final in between, so he clearly shouldn't be underestimated. He is one of the strongest long-potters in the game, a great scorer on his day, and a very determined characted. If he brings the discipline and composure to the table again, he will be very difficult to stop.
The same could be said of Stephen Maguire, a player who finally managed to add another ranking title to his legacy this season, his first in five years. He had kept himself near the top of the rankings in those five years, mostly with a series of semi-final and quarter-final appearances, but this season he failed to progress beyond the 2nd round of any major tournament until February. And he can't really say he was losing to players who were going on to win tournaments at the time. He is the oldest of the big four players of his generation, and one of the two who haven't won the World title yet, so I think he is always under pressure at the Crucible. He once said he wanted to win it before he turned 30. Well, that ship has sailed... There were a couple of years when he was looking really good. He led John Higgins 14-10 in the semi-final in 2007, but lost it in the final session. He was the favourite to meet Ronnie O'Sullivan in the final in 2008 after a tremendous performance in his first two matches, but he got complacent and lost in the quarter-final against Joe Perry. He looked good again last year, but inexplicably ran out of steam and didn't really challenge Carter in the semi-final. We all know his problems... He gets angry at himself when he makes a mistake or two. I'm sure most players do, but Maguire really takes it to the extreme. He was banging the table against Hendry last year, even though he had a huge lead. Sometimes you just have to battle through it and win ugly. Maguire can do that, as he is actually a pretty good tactician and certainly has the killer instinct when there is a chance to put someone in trouble with a defensive shot. But like O'Sullivan, he has to be in the right frame of mind to play properly. Let's look at some of the positives... His form has improved a lot from February onwards. He played with great heart at the Welsh Open, and whatever you think of over-the-top celebrations, his banging the table after getting over the line showed just how much he wanted and needed it. His good tournaments have come in patches over the years. He reached two ranking finals in the second part of last season, and he managed to play a second good tournament this season as well, reaching the semi-finals of the China Open. It could have been another final, as he just needed one favourable split to beat Neil Robertson. He is one of those players who can hold a high scoring streak for a long time, which makes him extremely dangerous, and it's no surprise he's had some really one-sided victories over the years. This is the first time in a while that he comes the the WC holding a ranking title, so his confidence should be high. Same as with Carter, if he brings his discipline, his composure and his self-control, he is a strong contender.
It's hard to think of John Higgins as just another contender, but for the first time in a while, that's exactly what he is. He missed the first couple of events of the season, then went on to win the Shanghai Masters - the first major event he entered. Unfortunately for him, it was all downhill from there. He lost early in tournaments against the likes of Cao Yupeng, Peter Lines and Ken Doherty. He also lost in the 2nd round of the UK Championship against Mark Davis, after needing a simple colour clearance to win the decider. He wasted a good scoring chance in each of the last two frames against Murphy at the Masters, losing 6-5 as a result. I think that's probably the most worrying thing for him, losing that killer instinct this season and making mistakes at crucial times, rather than raising his game as usual. Even at the recent China Open, he was always in control of his match against Robert Milkins, only to lose 5-4 after failing to take his chances. His record at the Crucible is an interesting one... He reached at least the quarter-finals for eight straight years between 1996 and 2003, but since then, he has either gone out before the quarter-finals or gone on to win the title. And that's why no one will dare to underestimate this man. He won three of the last six World titles, every other year, and the pattern could continue with 2013. He is the most experienced player in the tournament, the most successful in the recent past, the most respected tactician and the best under pressure. He doesn't have a weakness, other than perhaps the inconsistency that gets to everyone at a certain age. He has a positive record against almost every one of his rivals, he even has a strong psychological edge over some of them. I think most people are doubtful about his chances after the season he's had, but I'm sure everyone knows deep down that he could still easily win this championship. He showed he still had it by winning the Shanghai Masters, coming from 7-2 down to beat an in-form Judd Trump. He also showed some form at the World Open, only losing to a great Mark Allen in the semi-finals. He's had his share of underwhelming performances in the past, losing to the likes of Hendry and Davis in recent years, but he also won the title in 2007 and 2009 by playing his B-game for most of the tournament. As long as he has some sort of form, it always takes something special to beat him over a couple of sessions.
It's always tough to limit one's thoughts on Ronnie O'Sullivan to a short paragraph, but I'll give it a shot. Obviously he is the biggest mystery in this year's tournament, as there is nothing to judge his form on. There are many reasons why he could win the World title. Before he took a break from the game, he was the only player to hold two major titles, and he could legitimately be called the best player in the world. There is no reason to think he is a significantly weaker player a year later. He is still the best scorer in the world, always has been, even when he was struggling with other elements of his game. He had no problem with long-potting last year, and he played proper snooker to win the WC, with good shot selection and strong tactics. Perhaps even more importantly, he was disciplined and composed, and he didn't let anything get to him. His reaction after winning the German Masters showed he was still hungry for titles. Having sat out the entire season, it would be easy for him to skip the WC as well, so I suspect we are not likely to see a half-hearted attempt from him. If he gets past Marcus Campbell in the 1st round, which I suspect he will, he will mostly likely play Carter, one of his favourite opponents, and that could allow him to play himself into the tournament and get rid of any rustiness. Of course, there are also reasons why he could struggle to win it. The most basic one perhaps, he has been the title favourite almost every time for many years now, and of course he couldn't always win it. He can't just magically turn it on whenever he likes. Form comes and goes, as with all players, especially as they get older. On top of that, form isn't always the main concern with O'Sullivan. Compared to Higgins, he has a slightly different record at the Crucible in the last decade or so. He very rarely loses early, but he doesn't always win it when he reaches the business end either. A lot of the time it's been one bad session that has cost him. A couple of times it seemed like he was trapped in a session he couldn't really take anything out of, and of course there is no way to stop it and no place to hide at the Crucible. There is also the fact that he has played virtually no competitive snooker for almost a year, so he might need some time to get the edge back. It's certainly possible, as John Higgins proved after coming back from his suspension and immediately winning a couple of events. Speaking of Higgins, I'm sure O'Sullivan won't be pleased to see him in his quarter. While he doesn't have a dramatically poor record against Higgins over the whole of his career, he has still only beaten him once in the last eight years, so I'm sure he will be hoping Higgins goes out before the quarter-finals. As I said, O'Sullivan is the biggest mystery in the tournament, and I'm looking forward to finding out what kind of shape he's in.
That just leaves the final three players... I don't think there is a huge gap between the immediate contenders and the next few this year, but I still think these players deserve to be mentioned separately, for the way they've played all season, and for the fact they are currently fighting for the top sport in the rankings...
Let's start with Judd Trump, the player who won the first really big tournament of the season - the International Championship in early November. His performance in the first part of the season is mainly what makes him a strong contender here. He played very well to win that title, similar to the way he played to win the UK Championship last season. He also reached the final of the Shanghai Masters and got himself in a great position against John Higgins, only to lose 10-9 in the end. Those two finals, along with good performances in the PTCs, got him to the top of the rankings and made him one of the big favourites for the following tournaments. He was playing his signature attacking game, without taking it to the extreme, and he seemed to deal well with being the man to beat. I guess the turning point was that 1st round defeat against Mark Joyce at the UK Championship, when he threw away a good lead and lost in the decider. I'm sure he is not pleased with his results after the new year, losing in the 1st round on a couple of occasions, and only having a good run at the Welsh Open. Most of his defeats followed a similar pattern, he just couldn't put anything together and started taking everything on, trying to force his way back into the match. I mentioned that sort of approach in a positive light earlier with Murphy and Allen, but it doesn't really seem to work for Trump. There is not much wrong in his execution of safety shots, he has matched every one of his opponents in tactical exchanges in the tournaments he's won, his first final against Selby being particularly impressive, but there is no doubt he sometimes reverts back to a more natural style under pressure. For him, that means going for everything, as he prefers to rely on potting his way out of trouble rather than battling through a bad patch with patient and clever play. If he is going to win this championship, one would think the long balls will have to be going in for him, the way they did in 2011. He has succumbed to the pressure in a couple of matches in the past, but he has won just as many, if not more. He has experienced the one-table setup at the Crucible before, he has won the two biggest ranking tournaments outside of the WC, and he has the luxury of being able to play his snooker in peace, now that most eyes are bound to be on Ronnie O'Sullivan. Trump also has a good record against most of his rivals, the exceptions being Higgins and Maguire, and at least the latter is far away in the draw here.
Mark Selby has been the best player of the season so far, winning the two tournaments everyone wanted to win - the UK Championship and the Masters. He became the first player to win these two events back to back since they've been put together on the calendar. He could also become the first player in a decade to win the big three in the same season. The season didn't start all that well for him, as he failed to progress past the 2nd round of any major tournament prior to the UK in December. Honestly, I didn't even think he played all that well in the UK and the Masters, certainly not compared to some other great performances from players this season. There was a lot of fragmented stuff, a real battle at times. But if anyone relishes that type of snooker, it's Selby. Nothing seemed to get to him, not fatigue, not being 5-1 down in matches, not the late-night finishes, not his own struggles with fluency. And not impressive opponents like Neil Robertson or Shaun Murphy either, for that matter. He has reached another final and two quarter-finals since the Masters, so you can't criticize his consistency in the second half of the season. He has the scoring power, the tactical game, the bottle, the consistency, the physical fitness... Everything you need to win the World title. Possible problems? Well, too much good form hasn't always been a good sign for players ahead of the WC. Selby himself lost against Mark King in the 1st round in 2008, after a really good season. He also tends to get involved in a lot of scrappy and intense matches, and while he's handled that brilliantly this season, it has to catch up with him some time. It kind of did in 2010, when he lost to Graeme Dott in the semi-finals, after getting through a tough match against O'Sullivan in the previous round. The tough draw could also be a problem. He is almost guaranteed to meet either Ding or Allen in the quarter-finals, and there are other players who have had memorable wins over him in the past in his quarter, such as Hawkins, Lisowski and King. There is also the fact that he hasn't won a World title yet, and now that he is on the verge of turning 30, he is under pressure to win it sooner rather than later. I'm sure his army of haters will be going mental if he gets anywhere near, and as much as that would amuse me, it's a tough ask. He certainly has a chance though...
And let's conclude with Neil Robertson, the most recent winner of a major event. His season has been similar to Selby's, a couple of early exits in the first few months, but consistently strong performances since. He has appeared in major semi-finals five times this season, reaching the final on three of those occasions (six and four if you count the PTC Finals as well). This is a level of consistency Robertson never had in previous seasons. He is now definitely the complete player, strong scoring and potting mixed with a lot of patience, a lot of heart and great composure under pressure. If anything, his shot selection has been a bit weird at times this season, ranging from very attacking to surprisingly defensive, for no apparent reason. He is also not afraid of anyone. He had poor records against certain players in the past, Murphy and Maguire spring to mind, but he turned those rivalries in his favour. He had avoided Selby in major tournaments for years, but they have come across one another four times this season, and Robertson again turned it around, winning their last two matches after losing the first two. I think he will also like the draw in this tournament. I wouldn't say his half is in any way easier than the other one, but it's filled with strong players Robertson has beaten this season, while most of the players to beat him are in the other half. It's tough to find any weakness with Neil Robertson... Maybe the killer instinct hasn't always been there this season, kind of like Higgins, he lost a couple of matches that he maybe wouldn't have in previous seasons. The final of the International Championship was the first really big one he ever lost, leading 8-6 and losing the last four frames against Judd Trump. He led Selby 4-0 in the quarter-final of the UK Championship and lost 6-4, probably the first time I've seen him lose from a strong position like that. He played great stuff all week at the Masters, only to run out of steam in the final, when it mattered the most. He also bottled the decider against Stuart Bingham at the Welsh Open and lost the final of the PTC Finals 4-3 from 3-0 up. But the thing is, if you are consistently reaching the later stages of tournaments, you are going to lose some big matches. Robertson was knocking on the door all season and got his reward in Beijing. As long as he hasn't peaked too early, he is one of the big favourites for this title.
That's what I think anyway... :smile:
Who do you think will win the World Championship? :wink:
Comment