Tweet
Ssb - crucible countdown: More first round predictions
Andso my first round preview concludes with more predictions...
MARKWILLIAMS v LIU CHUANG
Iwould never claim to have any great insight into the inner workings of asnooker player’s mind but it seems to me that Williams put a great deal intogetting back to world no.1 and has now tailed off a bit, perhaps because theonly way after accomplishing what was a terrific feat was down.
Sincelosing the Shanghai Masters final last September, Williams hasn’t looked thesame. He’s still dangerous of course but his performances haven’t been asimpressive as they were last season.
Soperhaps this one could be the big first round shock that nobody can see coming.Well, if it is, I haven’t seen it coming either.
Liuhas done really well to qualify. He has that deadpan way about him which makeshis emotions hard to read.
Buthis lack of experience must surely be a factor. He played at the Crucible four yearsago but doesn’t have much table time under his belt in the big arenas.
Williamsdoesn’t seem to rate his own chances of progressing much further but I think he’llcome through this one.
PREDICTION:Williams to win 10-5
RONNIEO’SULLIVAN v PETER EBDON
Makeno mistake: this is a rotten draw for O’Sullivan. However, it isn’t a good onefor Ebdon either.
Asidefrom his debut in 1993, when he was just 17, O’Sullivan has only lost twice inthe first round and he played great both times: five centuries against DavidGray in 2000 and a maximum against Marco Fu in 2003.
Allthe talk will be about their infamous quarter-final in 2005 in which Ebdon –and let’s be clear about this – employed spoiling tactics, slowing down thepace of play to a crawl.
O’Sullivanwas unable to cope with this. You could argue this is part of the test of asnooker player. Others would maintain that a break of 12 in five minutes is simplybeyond the pail of what is acceptable. Whichever your view, that match hangsover this one like a raincloud.
However,Ebdon has not beaten O’Sullivan since that night in four meetings and the key difference this time is that O’Sullivan will be mentally preparedfor what is going to happen.
Hewasn’t seven years ago. He was 8-2 up and coasting. What happened surprised andunnerved him.
Thismatch is not as long and if he can get on top of Ebdon early on then it wouldbe a much tougher ask for Ebdon to come back.
Butit’s not just Ebdon’s pace of play that is the issue. The point is, he isplaying great stuff right now. He’s back to somewhere near his best and hisconfidence is high.
Thisis all on O’Sullivan. Is he playing well enough? Is he mentally prepared? Heneeds to dig in, will he?
Ithink he will. We saw at the German Masters what he could do when he really,really tries.
Thisis the Crucible. There is no reason not to make another supreme effort.
PREDICTION:O’Sullivan to win 10-7
MARTINGOULD v DAVE GILBERT
Gouldplayed some really good stuff to become a top 16 player for the first time thisseason. Since then he seems to have, perhaps subconsciously, been looking overhis shoulder.
Thisis something many new top 16 players have struggled to cope with, but he is lowon confidence and that is not the state of mind you want heading to theCrucible.
WhenGilbert started the qualifiers last week there was talk that, because of abizarre loophole, he would be better losing his first match as he would then beout of the top 64 and get a two-year tour card through his place among the topeight tour qualifiers from the PTC order of merit.
Well,that may have been true but this is the World Championship and every player isgoing to give it everything. Gilbert’s Crucible debut in 2007 saw him leadStephen Hendry 5-1 before losing 10-7.
Hehas done the hard work already by qualifying and can exploit any nerves fromGould, who is playing at Sheffield for the first time as a seed, not a positionhe seems to have taken to so far this season.
PREDICTION:Gilbert to win 10-8
NEILROBERTSON v KEN DOHERTY
Robertsonis my tip for the title this year. He is a player who excels in every area ofthe game. He’s a great potter, heavy scorer, has an iron safety game,understands tactics and psychology and has a big match temperament.
Robertson’sonly real weakness is his preparation. He hasn’t elaborated, but admits to nothaving given the run-in to his title defence last year the proper respect.
I’vehad the feeling all season that he has been eyeing these 17 days in Sheffield.Of course, all players do but they don’t all have the Australian’s strength ofcharacter.
He’sa proven winner at the Crucible and he doesn’t have the baggage this year oftrying to defend the crown.
Dohertyhad his day in the Crucible sun in 1997 and was the star of the 2003championship, if not the winner.
Thegenial Irishman is far more inconsistent these days. I think he can certainlycause Robertson problems but over a match of this length I’d expect the formman to come through.
PREDICTION:Robertson to win 10-4
DINGJUNHUI v RYAN DAY
Dayis always potentially dangerous but has gone backwards since his appearance inthe Crucible quarter-finals in 2008 and 2009.
Dingblows hot and cold but was impressive at the Crucible last year where heeventually lost an epic semi-final to Judd Trump.
Dingseems nicely settled now in his private life. He lives in a house in Sheffieldwith his girlfriend, Apple, and maybe this relaxed home life will help him bearfruit come May 7.
He’scertainly good enough. He’s as good a break builder as there is. But he’s alsoinconsistent and there’s plenty of time for things to go badly wrong at theWorld Championship. Sometimes you have to dig in and rely on your B game.
Hehas to be favourite to come through this, although Day is by no means apushover.
PREDICTION
ing to win 10-7
MARKALLEN v CAO YUPENG
Caohas done really well to qualify and his temperament must be good to windeciders against Dave Harold and Tom Ford but it’s his misfortune to run into aplayer who has always been high in confidence and who now has the silverware toback it up.
Ithink Allen will have a really good run here. He seems to relish playing on thebiggest stages and has a Crucible semi-final and two quarter-finals under hisbelt from these last three years.
There’sno reason why, given his experience, confidence and form, he shouldn’t be ajustified favourite for this one.
PREDICTION:Allen to win 10-4
MATTHEWSTEVENS v MARCO FU
There’susually a riveting 10-9 in the first round and this could be it.
Stevenswas among the four or five leading world title contenders in the first half ofthe last decade. Like Stephen Lee, he has regained his place in the world’selite top 16 but, unlike Lee, he has not pushed on since.
Fualways seems to play great or not much good at all. This maddeninginconsistency means he is out of the top 16 again even though he belongs inthere for many, myself included.
Ifit goes close I’d fancy Fu. And I think it’ll go close.
PREDICTION:Fu to win 10-9
MARKSELBY v BARRY HAWKINS
Aweek ago, Selby was unable to play due to the trapped nerve in his neck whichsaw him withdraw from the China Open.
Thisis not the ideal preparation for the World Championship and he is stillreceiving treatment. Even if the physical pain goes away he can be forgiven forhaving mental doubts.
Healso has a very tough first round opponent. Hawkins beat Stephen Maguire in thefirst round last year and was a frame from beating Mark Allen in the last 16.
Hawkinsneeds to play well again but the intrigue surrounds Selby. Is he really in afit state to play?
Moreto the point, given the build-up, could he last the full 17 days? The omens are not good for him even if he wins this first round encounter.
PREDICTION:Selby to win 10-8
More...
MARKWILLIAMS v LIU CHUANG
Iwould never claim to have any great insight into the inner workings of asnooker player’s mind but it seems to me that Williams put a great deal intogetting back to world no.1 and has now tailed off a bit, perhaps because theonly way after accomplishing what was a terrific feat was down.
Sincelosing the Shanghai Masters final last September, Williams hasn’t looked thesame. He’s still dangerous of course but his performances haven’t been asimpressive as they were last season.
Soperhaps this one could be the big first round shock that nobody can see coming.Well, if it is, I haven’t seen it coming either.
Liuhas done really well to qualify. He has that deadpan way about him which makeshis emotions hard to read.
Buthis lack of experience must surely be a factor. He played at the Crucible four yearsago but doesn’t have much table time under his belt in the big arenas.
Williamsdoesn’t seem to rate his own chances of progressing much further but I think he’llcome through this one.
PREDICTION:Williams to win 10-5
RONNIEO’SULLIVAN v PETER EBDON
Makeno mistake: this is a rotten draw for O’Sullivan. However, it isn’t a good onefor Ebdon either.
Asidefrom his debut in 1993, when he was just 17, O’Sullivan has only lost twice inthe first round and he played great both times: five centuries against DavidGray in 2000 and a maximum against Marco Fu in 2003.
Allthe talk will be about their infamous quarter-final in 2005 in which Ebdon –and let’s be clear about this – employed spoiling tactics, slowing down thepace of play to a crawl.
O’Sullivanwas unable to cope with this. You could argue this is part of the test of asnooker player. Others would maintain that a break of 12 in five minutes is simplybeyond the pail of what is acceptable. Whichever your view, that match hangsover this one like a raincloud.
However,Ebdon has not beaten O’Sullivan since that night in four meetings and the key difference this time is that O’Sullivan will be mentally preparedfor what is going to happen.
Hewasn’t seven years ago. He was 8-2 up and coasting. What happened surprised andunnerved him.
Thismatch is not as long and if he can get on top of Ebdon early on then it wouldbe a much tougher ask for Ebdon to come back.
Butit’s not just Ebdon’s pace of play that is the issue. The point is, he isplaying great stuff right now. He’s back to somewhere near his best and hisconfidence is high.
Thisis all on O’Sullivan. Is he playing well enough? Is he mentally prepared? Heneeds to dig in, will he?
Ithink he will. We saw at the German Masters what he could do when he really,really tries.
Thisis the Crucible. There is no reason not to make another supreme effort.
PREDICTION:O’Sullivan to win 10-7
MARTINGOULD v DAVE GILBERT
Gouldplayed some really good stuff to become a top 16 player for the first time thisseason. Since then he seems to have, perhaps subconsciously, been looking overhis shoulder.
Thisis something many new top 16 players have struggled to cope with, but he is lowon confidence and that is not the state of mind you want heading to theCrucible.
WhenGilbert started the qualifiers last week there was talk that, because of abizarre loophole, he would be better losing his first match as he would then beout of the top 64 and get a two-year tour card through his place among the topeight tour qualifiers from the PTC order of merit.
Well,that may have been true but this is the World Championship and every player isgoing to give it everything. Gilbert’s Crucible debut in 2007 saw him leadStephen Hendry 5-1 before losing 10-7.
Hehas done the hard work already by qualifying and can exploit any nerves fromGould, who is playing at Sheffield for the first time as a seed, not a positionhe seems to have taken to so far this season.
PREDICTION:Gilbert to win 10-8
NEILROBERTSON v KEN DOHERTY
Robertsonis my tip for the title this year. He is a player who excels in every area ofthe game. He’s a great potter, heavy scorer, has an iron safety game,understands tactics and psychology and has a big match temperament.
Robertson’sonly real weakness is his preparation. He hasn’t elaborated, but admits to nothaving given the run-in to his title defence last year the proper respect.
I’vehad the feeling all season that he has been eyeing these 17 days in Sheffield.Of course, all players do but they don’t all have the Australian’s strength ofcharacter.
He’sa proven winner at the Crucible and he doesn’t have the baggage this year oftrying to defend the crown.
Dohertyhad his day in the Crucible sun in 1997 and was the star of the 2003championship, if not the winner.
Thegenial Irishman is far more inconsistent these days. I think he can certainlycause Robertson problems but over a match of this length I’d expect the formman to come through.
PREDICTION:Robertson to win 10-4
DINGJUNHUI v RYAN DAY
Dayis always potentially dangerous but has gone backwards since his appearance inthe Crucible quarter-finals in 2008 and 2009.
Dingblows hot and cold but was impressive at the Crucible last year where heeventually lost an epic semi-final to Judd Trump.
Dingseems nicely settled now in his private life. He lives in a house in Sheffieldwith his girlfriend, Apple, and maybe this relaxed home life will help him bearfruit come May 7.
He’scertainly good enough. He’s as good a break builder as there is. But he’s alsoinconsistent and there’s plenty of time for things to go badly wrong at theWorld Championship. Sometimes you have to dig in and rely on your B game.
Hehas to be favourite to come through this, although Day is by no means apushover.
PREDICTION
ing to win 10-7MARKALLEN v CAO YUPENG
Caohas done really well to qualify and his temperament must be good to windeciders against Dave Harold and Tom Ford but it’s his misfortune to run into aplayer who has always been high in confidence and who now has the silverware toback it up.
Ithink Allen will have a really good run here. He seems to relish playing on thebiggest stages and has a Crucible semi-final and two quarter-finals under hisbelt from these last three years.
There’sno reason why, given his experience, confidence and form, he shouldn’t be ajustified favourite for this one.
PREDICTION:Allen to win 10-4
MATTHEWSTEVENS v MARCO FU
There’susually a riveting 10-9 in the first round and this could be it.
Stevenswas among the four or five leading world title contenders in the first half ofthe last decade. Like Stephen Lee, he has regained his place in the world’selite top 16 but, unlike Lee, he has not pushed on since.
Fualways seems to play great or not much good at all. This maddeninginconsistency means he is out of the top 16 again even though he belongs inthere for many, myself included.
Ifit goes close I’d fancy Fu. And I think it’ll go close.
PREDICTION:Fu to win 10-9
MARKSELBY v BARRY HAWKINS
Aweek ago, Selby was unable to play due to the trapped nerve in his neck whichsaw him withdraw from the China Open.
Thisis not the ideal preparation for the World Championship and he is stillreceiving treatment. Even if the physical pain goes away he can be forgiven forhaving mental doubts.
Healso has a very tough first round opponent. Hawkins beat Stephen Maguire in thefirst round last year and was a frame from beating Mark Allen in the last 16.
Hawkinsneeds to play well again but the intrigue surrounds Selby. Is he really in afit state to play?
Moreto the point, given the build-up, could he last the full 17 days? The omens are not good for him even if he wins this first round encounter.
PREDICTION:Selby to win 10-8
More...
Comment